Monthly Archives: August 2007

Forecasting, Part II

Back in January, I wrote an introductory post on demand Forecasting that discussed a really good article called Outlook Warm and Sunny that ran in APICS Magazine.

In the post, I noted that the proper combination of judgmental and statistical and statistical methodologies can often be used to create better forecasts than either method alone, because humans can make mistakes and statistical methods are very slow to react to changing market conditions.

Well, a month or so ago, Purchasing ran an article titled Commodities forecasting: It’s all in your head, that addressed the subject of commodity price forecasts. The article indicated that of the three types of commodity price forecasts – those based on judgment, those based on historical price data, and those based on commodity futures prices – the judgmental forecasts have the best record of accuracy.

Although this worries me, since the risk of human error is just as real in commodities forecasting as it is in demand forecasting, and I would strongly recommend that you use a good statistical model that incorporated historical prices and futures pricing before making a judgment as to what the price will be in the future, the article does have some good advice.

First of all, it notes that if you are going to use personal judgment in commodity forecasting, you have to base it on the right factors. Specifically, you need to review the right data, and the most critical data is:

  • market intelligence
  • global economic trends
  • supplier safeguards against volatility
  • your own company’s strategies

Market intelligence is probably the most critical. Be sure to watch the international marketplace to determine supply, demand, pricing, and trading trends. Economic conditions that affect supply and prices are changeable, and usually global.

The article concludes with ten forecasting tips.

  1. determine corporate price goals and adjust them to economic realities
  2. reduce purchasing pricing strategies to monthly or quarterly intervals to represent the rapid dynamics of the marketplace
  3. adjust actual timing of buys to monthly or quarterly events
  4. analyze and adjust the structure of supply contract agreements
  5. pay close attention to inventory levels
  6. ensure true supply tie-in with operational action plans
  7. study global pricing and sourcing trends
  8. survey primary suppliers’ operating rates, inventory, and costs
  9. analyze the secondary sourcing market for alternate suppliers
  10. determine potential supply alternatives for commodity products

A Ground-Breaking Study on Global Trade Metrics

Last month, I advertised the Global Data Mining Webinar in my post Global Trade Metrics Benchmarking, which I followed a few weeks later with Catching up with GDM: Don’t Underestimate Trade Compliance. In the latter post, I noted that Global Data Mining not only found that error rates in global trade processes approach 10% to 20% and effective control of global trade processes is often 100 to 200 times worse when compared to accounts payable processes within a company but that in a recent analysis of the trade data for five organizations with 66B in revenue, they found direct-compliance related savings opportunities of $262.1M, including $161.5M at a single $3B apparel company. Considering that they were only scraping the surface with their analysis, this should give you something to think about.

The webinar, which is now available for download, was very well attended and discussed the huge savings opportunities on the table for those companies heavily involved in global trade. Considering that a simple thought experiment, as described in an article by Matt Gersper of Global Data Mining and Marisa Brown of APQC (which is enclosed below in its entirety), indicates that at least 90% of shipments in an average organization are affected by at least one issue that delays the transaction and erodes expected profits, the savings opportunities from effective global trade management probably extend far beyond the benefits described by Aberdeen in their studies, which include The CFO’s Agenda for Global Trade Benchmark Report, Global Trade Management Strategies, and Global Trade Management in 2007: Benchmarking Trade Compliance, Global Supply Chain Visibility, and Risk Management Practices.

However, what I want to point out is that Global Data Mining and AQPC are teaming up for an in-depth study of global trade metrics, as described on the Global Trade Measurement: Driving Supply Chain Optimization page on the AQPC web-site. The study, which is currently seeking participants, aims to define a strategy to establish collective goals for all global supply chain stakeholders, map and analyze the global supply chain flow, identify points of breakdown, and establish metrics and measurements for global trade. Unfortunately, sponsorship of this study is not cheap ($14K for APQC members, $20K for non-members, with a $2K discount if you commit before the end of the month), but considering the quality of work that is available for free on the Global Data Mining Publications Page and the reputation of APQC, I’m sure that the study will deliver on its promises and that the advertised benefits will be realized.

As a disclaimer, I’d like to note that, at the present time, neither myself, nor my company, have any association with Global Data Mining or AQPC. I Am promoting the webinar recording and the upcoming study, and reprinting the article below, because I believe that, relative to the number of e-Sourcing and e-Procurement solutions and knowledge-bases out there, there is a lack of trade management and analysis solutions, and that companies are losing significant amounts of cash in their global trade operations due to the constantly increasing levels of complexity being introduced with enhanced classification requirements (such as the HTS revisions that occurred early this year), free trade and tax requirements (such as the VAT changes that just occurred in China), and security requirements (such as the Automated Commercial Environment and Container Security Initiative in the US) and the lack of processes, technologies, and benchmarks to help companies improve their operations. On a related note, over on the e-Sourcing Wiki, I’d like to point out the new Global Sourcing Primer subsection, which, by the end of the year, is slated to have wikis on the basics of global trade, customs and security, free trade, regulatory compliance, and supply chain finance, in addition to the current wikis on Low Cost Country Sourcing and Supply Risk Management This should prove to be a good resource as well. As a further disclaimer, I will be authoring or co-authoring many of the initial releases of most of the wiki-papers.


GDM and APQC Launch Ground Breaking Study of Global Trade Metrics

by Matt Gersper (Global Data Mining) and Marisa Brown (APQC)

I’ve always struggled to find metrics that can help me quantify the value that a global trade compliance operation brings to its organization,” says Beth Peterson, President of BPE, a consulting firm facilitating global trade compliance, automation and strategy for multi-national shippers. Many corporate executives are struggling with the very same question.

More than 150 global traders from 24 countries recently registered to attend a webinar hosted by Global Data Mining (GDM) and APQC to learn about a ground breaking global trade consortium benchmarking study. They gathered to consider the opportunity to participate in the study designed to help organizational leaders measure performance in global supply chain processes and tap vast financial rewards that lie in global trade process optimization.

APQC, a member-based non-profit research and education organization, has a long and distinguished history of helping companies around the globe discover effective methods of improvement, broadly disseminate findings, and connect individuals and the knowledge they need to improve. Over a 30-year period, APQC has conducted more than 6,000 benchmarking studies and has a deep history of existing supply chain research. Once APQC learned about the incredible inefficiencies in global trade processes, they quickly determined this would be an important study to take on.

Global trade remains one of the last corporate frontiers where upgrading and optimizing business processes can drive very significant financial and operational gains, giving corporations an additional strategy to create competitive advantage and add significantly to their bottom line. Yet standardized metrics for measuring performance in global trade processes have eluded this $10 trillion industry leaving business executives in the dark.

There has been a quiet evolution from domestic sourcing of raw materials from domestic suppliers to increasingly complex, global supply chains. The size and financial significance of this shift has caught many executives by surprise. Cross-border global transactions have grown from $3 trillion in 1990 to $10 trillion in 2007 and, according to a recent McKinsey report, are expected to grow to more than $70 trillion by 2025. [1]

In the face of increasing government regulations and with logistics expenditures at a staggering 9.9 percent of US GDP and rising, only 7 percent of executives are fully satisfied with their global trade programs.[2] The other 93 percent may be shocked to learn that error rates in global trade processes often exceed 20 percent. In a recent thought experiment conducted by GDM and APQC, it was estimated that more than 90% of all international shipments have mismanaged “hand-offs” that slowed the transaction and added “hidden” costs to the importing company.

Imagine that your organization has the ability to precisely measure performance in eight major “hand-offs” in your international supply chain.

1) Once a purchase order is created, your systems can measure if the supplier filled the order complete and on-time.
2) It can measure if the foreign in-land transportation delivered the goods the to foreign port on-time.
3) The system can track the activity in the foreign customs process and determine that the goods cleared with no delays.
4) You can measure if the international transportation delivered the goods to the domestic port on-time.
5) The system can measure if the goods cleared domestic customs with no delays.
6) You can measure if the domestic in-land transportation delivered the goods to your warehouse on-time.
7) The system tracks if receiving was complete and damage free.
8) And finally, your system can report if all customs declarations were complete and accurate creating no post-entry consequences.

Further, imagine that your company-wide performance across all eight of these major supply chain activities averaged 80%. In other words, 80% of the time, the activity was completed on time and according to expectations set by your company. The result of this level of performance across 10,000 transactions would be that only 1,678 transactions would be completed according to expectations and that 8,322 would incur some problem or problems slowing the transaction and adding unintended costs to your organization. We call the performance metric across these 8 supply chain activities The Supply Chain Performance IndexTM. The formula reads:

80% * 80% *80% *80% *80% *80% *80% *80% = 16.78%

A June 2007 article by the Global Economy reported that “in the first quarter of 2007, only 47% of container vessels globally arrived at the ports on time, the lowest level on record.”

When we insert this data into our thought experiment, the level of performance across 10,000 transactions would now have more than 9,000 or 90% of the shipments with some problem or problems slowing the transaction and eroding expected profits.

80% * 80% *80% *47% *80% *80% *80% *80% = 9.65%

What could possibly cause such poor performance? Each stakeholder is acting with incomplete information and in self-interest rather than in the best interest of the supply chain itself, acting independently rather than collaboratively. Other factors that contribute to mismanaged supply chain hand-offs include language differences between the stakeholders, cultural differences, differences in industry jargon, breakdowns in communication and failure of the importer to set and control expectations for each activity within the supply chain. Inefficient supply chains cost corporations millions of dollars in unexpected “hidden costs” severely impacting company profits.

Financial opportunity also abounds on the plus-side of managing an international supply chain by effectively managing the proliferation of Free Trade Agreements, improving sourcing options, and implementing new supply chain finance programs for international suppliers. Leading executives are beginning to use data mining and metrics to identify significant financial and operational opportunities within their global supply chain. One leading Industry analyst, Beth Enslow of the AberdeenGroup and GDM recently collaborated on an extensive data mining project for the International Compliance Professionals Association (ICPA). The project included five Fortune 500 companies and identified more than $500 million in potential savings.

In a separate Aberdeen study (the CFO’s Agenda for Global Trade Benchmark Report), Beth Enslow concluded, “A $1 billion company can free $10 million to $40 million in cash by better controlling its basic global trade processes.” How large is the opportunity for your company?

Have you ever wondered … ?

  • How effective are my global trade operations?
  • Is there a way to effectively measure its performance?
  • How much does it contribute to or detract from the company’s bottom line?
  • What are my competitors doing?
  • Are others using global trade to a competitive advantage?

“Global Trade Measurement: Driving Supply Chain Optimization” is APQC’s newest consortium benchmarking study designed to answer these questions and give executives the measures and metrics needed to assess current performance and implement strategic changes to tap the vast opportunities that lie in global trade process optimization.

The study was developed with the collective intelligence of your peers. GDM and APQC used a collaborative process called “voice of the customer” interviews to compile the thoughts and expertise of leading trade professionals. Over a recent four week period, we conducted 15 interviews with trade professionals from a wide variety of industries and experience. Many represented well-known Fortune 500 companies that have been struggling to measure performance in their global trade processes. The results of our interviews focused the scope of our study in these primary areas:

  1. Define a strategy to establish collective goals for all global supply chain stakeholders
  2. Map and analyze the global supply chain flow (current state)
  3. Identify points of breakdowns
  4. Establish metrics and measurements

APQC’s research follows a disciplined and well-tested four-phased methodology: plan, collect, analyze, and adapt. During the plan phase, the project team reviews research to identify potential best-practice organizations and screens willing organizations to learn about innovative processes or approaches used to measure global trade process performance.

Companies participating as study sponsors will participate in a virtual kickoff meeting to review best-practice candidates and select the organizations that they wish to study as best-practice partners.

In the collect phase, best-practice partners host virtual site visits to address qualitative questions around the study scope areas and to share lessons learned and critical success factors. Additionally, all study participants will complete a quantitative survey. The data is aggregated to provide a gap analysis between the sponsoring organizations and the best-practice partners. APQC has a strong adherence to a Code of Conduct that ensures that all data shared during a research project is kept strictly confidential.

The APQC team, along with the study’s subject matter experts, then analyzes the quantitative and qualitative data and prepares in-depth profiles on each best-practice organization.

The adapt phase of the study includes the Knowledge Transfer Session, the concluding event for the study. This session is an action-packed, face-to-face, interactive meeting open to all study participants and their leadership teams. Events at this session include a networking reception, presentations by the subject matter experts and best-practice organizations, panel discussions, and breakout sessions.

A previous participant shared this about his experience:

APQC has a high-quality process and is a good value for the money. I have participated in studies with other groups, and APQC’s method is far superior. The ability to see where we sit in relation to other companies and to set a vision of where we want to go has been the most beneficial aspect.
– Patrick Powaser, Occidental Petroleum Corp.

Companies joining this exciting industry study will realize benefits for their staff members who participate as well as for the company itself.

Benefits for Study Participants

  • Learn proven, actionable best practices
  • Gain access to organizations
  • Influence the study’s direction
  • Interact with peers
  • Gain access to world-class knowledge
  • Involve your colleagues, senior executives, and process champions
  • Receive a detailed final report
  • Acquire a set of tools to effect change in your organization

Benefits for Participating Companies include the ability to implement study results and the potential for improved outcomes such as:

  • Accelerate the supply chain
  • Increase corporate profit
  • Decrease cost of goods
  • Improve global trade compliance
  • Drive executive decisions
  • Establish competitive advantage

Key Dates:

Deadline to receive Early-bird discount Aug. 31, 2007
“Meet the sponsors” conference call Sept. 27, 2007
Study kickoff conference call Oct. 24, 2007
Best-practice partner virtual site visits Nov – Dec 2007
Knowledge transfer session in Houston Feb. 27-28, 2008

In addition to GDM providing subject matter expertise and thought leadership during this study, Beth Peterson will also be serving as a Special Adviser. Beth has more than 21 years experience in the logistics and international transportation business, and is a licensed customs broker and CBP ACE Trade Ambassador.

This is your opportunity to make your mark on our industry and make a significant impact on your company. Join this global trade consortium benchmarking study today. For more information please contact Matt Gersper at mattgersper<at>gdmllc<dot>com, or Gerry Swift at gswift<at>apqc<dot>org or visit www.apqc.org/studies/gt.

JLP Responsible Sourcing Part X: Regular Employment

In our last post, we discussed the subject of wages, corresponding to section I of the report. In today’s post, we cover section J of The John Lewis Partnership‘s Responsible Sourcing Supplier Workbook, which covers regular employment.

Generally speaking, workers should have a formally recognized employment relationship and should have security in employment and the financial security and legal rights this entails. More specifically:

  • Contract workers must have a written contract that clearly conveys their terms and conditions of work in terms they can understand
  • Temporary and casual workers and subcontractors should only be used for short durations; it is unethical, and in some places illegal, to keep workers on repeated short term contracts for years simply to avoid the obligations (such as better pay and health benefits) associated with regular workers
  • Unknown or closed agencies should not be used, as this robs workers of control over their pay and benefits
  • Only workers with a right to work are to be employed

As with many of the other sections, we again find some disturbing facts around the issue of regular employment:

  • The ILO estimates roughly 20 Million migrant workers (& family members) across Africa, 18 Million across North America, 12 Million in Central & South America, 7 Million in South & East Asia, 9 Million in the Middle East, and 30 Million across Europe
  • Up to 80% of agricultural wage-earners in India, 77% in Brazil, and 62% in Spain are temporary workers
  • Estimates of temporary workers in the UK vary from 600,000 to 1 Million

Therefore, it’s important that you:

  • Provide all employees with a written contract in their native language
  • Insure you are not employing the same workers on repeated temporary contracts or apprenticeship schemes
  • Only employ apprentices for the maximum period permitted by law
  • Encourage workers to participate in all state benefits
  • Take reasonable steps to ensure you only employ those with the right to work
  • Only dismiss a worker for a valid and legal reason

In our next post, we’ll tackle the tenth major issue addressed by the workbook, the environment. (You can access all of the posts in the series (to-date) by selecting the JLP category at any time.)

Hard Times for Oompa Loompas

In my last post on The Cadbury Crunch, I reminded you that Cadbury had recently announced job-cuts in the 7,500 range. In the predecessor post, Confusing Times for Oompa Loompas, I pointed out that Hershey was closing it’s last Canadian factory. This week brought more grim news, Campbell announced it was looking to sell Godiva. These are likely three of the top five chocolate manufacturers in the world. Let’s just hope business goes well for Mars and Nestle, or the enterprising Oompa-Loompas at Lake Forest Confections are going to have to sell an awful lot of boxes of Le Chocolat to make up for the shortfall!

Supply Chain Humor This Week IV

Oh Noooooo! Due to the biofuels demand, we have learned of price increase in Corn, Milk, Beer and Tequila to name a few. But oh dear, not this: Biofuel Boom Threatens Gummy Bears
     Hat Tip: Tony Poshek, The Satirical Sorcerer (formerly known as The Cynical Sorcerer … but only us bloggers got the joke)

The biofuel boom has gone too far this time! It’s bad enough that we are over-focussed on corn-based ethanol, which is six times less economical to produce than sugar-cane ethanol, and which still has a negative EROEI (energy return on energy invested), but to threaten the “sweet, sweet candy” … Homer‘s favorite candy … that’s just not right!

A unique way to pay your invoice: In this case, how a disgruntled math genius decided to pay Verizon. (Take a second to look.)
     Hat Tip: Tony Poshek, The Satirical Sorcerer (formerly known as The Cynical Sorcerer)

Note that
   31.8971 + 22 + 33 + 44 + eiĻ€ + āˆ‘n=15 12400/2n + āˆ‘n=16 n2/n+1
would also be valid in this instance.

Why Civil Rights pursuers don’t make good spend management professionals: A Utah family spent $536,000 in legal fees in a civil rights trial for parental rights. They won their case, and were awarded $2.

After refusing a settlement of $200,000. ‘Nuff said.