Author’s note: this first appeared as a LinkedIn post, elaborated upon in the comments of THE REVELATOR‘s post it referenced.
“$1 trillion rout hits Nasdaq 100 over AI jitters in worst day since 2022!”
This is a headline from the Economic Times this week. And a foreshadowing of things to come.
As far as the doctor is concerned, the impending The Gen-AI Cr@p market collapse can’t happen fast enough! Too many people don’t remember the 80s and how all the AI “promises, promises, that were made were the promises, promises they betrayed” …
because processing power, new languages/models/constructions, and expert mimicry is not enough!
The reality is that, until we have a fundamentally better understanding of human intelligence, or can at least assemble and properly support as many cores as humans have neurons [which, FYI, we shouldn’t conceive of as we couldn’t produce the energy requirements with current technology globally to power it] (and not the equivalent of a pond snail at best … look where that got us, it’s golden nugget of insight is we should eat one rock a day), there is zero chance of a new AI “breakthrough” actually approximating anything close to intelligence.
All of the true advancements in our lifetime are going to come from human intelligence (HI!) (that creates better algorithms, models, processes, etc. and then properly, manually, embeds those enhancements in next generation tech).
Remember, they’ve been promising us true AI since the [19]70s … and they are no closer now then the great minds who created, and in their wiser years abandoned, AI (which has materialized as Artificial Idiocy) because some pursuits are still beyond the grasp of mice and men (and others shouldn’t be attempted)!
Every 3 to 5 years they promise us that the brand new shiny tech is the Staples Big Read Easy Button, and every 3 to 5 years this brand new shiny tech fails to deliver. Gen-AI is just the latest in a long line of over-hyped, under-performing tech whose “hype” cycle is almost over and the next tech that is going to bring us a great market crash (which, giving the ridiculous amount of money dumped into this technology which will never be appropriate for the Enterprise, could bring about a crash that might rival the great dot.com crash of 2000 – and if you don’t remember that, you really should look it up — a lot of software providers, especially those whose solutions provided limited actual value relative to the investment made [or money wasted on “marketing” and “brand”] bit the dust).
The even sadder reality of the situation is that we don’t need the tech. In almost every business domain, there has been software which, with a bit of manpower and human intelligence, has solved the majority of our current business problems, even the most complicated global supply chain/trade problems. All we had to do was stop using the monolith technology from two-plus decades ago and take a small chance on newer, better, more powerful players who started to solve real problems with software the average Jane could use.
In Procurement, the vast majority of companies aren’t using the tech we had 𝐓𝐖𝐄𝐍𝐓𝐘 𝐅𝐎𝐔𝐑 years ago! (When the doctor built the leading strategic sourcing 𝐨𝐩𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐢𝐳𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 solution (the first with multi line item support) and THE REVELATOR had a leading ML (machine-learning) based application for 𝐚𝐥𝐠𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐡𝐦 𝐛𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 and realization [for everyone else, think guided sourcing strategy, like Levadata does for electronics, based on market and organizational data, with execution support]).
If the average organization even had this V 1.0 technology, they’d do SO MUCH better across the board (and now we are at V 3.0 in most Procurement applications; in optimization, what I did at Iasta [acquired by Selectica, rebranded Determine, who sunset what they didn’t understand] and consulted on (in other players) after was V2 and Trade Extensions (acquired by Coupa) gave us V3 with full supply chain support and modelling capability beyond your dreams (and now maybe Coupa’s understanding with Arne and Fredrik (founders) gone … but there are those of us who still understand the phenomenal vision and realization thereof of the great Arne Andersson).
Also, the reality is that if anyone understood what Coupa Supply Chain Optimization [Llamasoft] or Logility [Starboard] could do in the right hands … THE REVELATOR‘s parts management dreams and scenario-based Procurement guidance from the late 90s and early 00s would come true.
(And we don’t need no fake-take to make it happen! Proper catalog-enhanced true SaaS solutions have been built with integrated intake for the last decade. You just have to look beyond the same old, same old 10 vendors that Gartner and Forrester tell you about every year (pretending that the other 656 don’t exist). Vroozi [see our 2-part summary: Part I and Part II] has had this capability since day one, and once all these Gen-AI and fake-take plays come crashing down because they don’t actually enable true Procurement or have any real Procurement capability under the hood, you’re going to see a new generation of true Strategic Procurement providers rise up and offer something that every enterprise, and mid-size enterprises in particular, needs and can benefit from. And when this reckoning comes, it will humble any organization still on one of these powerless platforms. So the time to find a real platform is now!)