As per our first two posts, if you read my predictions post, you know SI hates predictions posts. It fully despises them because the vast majority of these posts are pure optimistic fantasy and help no one. Why are the posts like this? Because no one wants to hear the sobering reality off of the bat in the new year and the influencers care more about clicks than actually helping you.

But the predictions are not only bad, they’re dangerous if you believe them. So we are continuing to lay bare the reality of the situation to make sure you understand that this year isn’t much different than last year, no miracles are coming, and only hard work and the application of your human intelligence are going to get you anywhere. Today we tackle the next three, and while we hope we’re getting close to the end of the series, we’re pretty sure there will be at least one more entry.

8. Global Trade Will Shift, Prioritizing Resilience Over Cost.

In the mid to long term some trade will shift to prioritize resilience, but most trade won’t. While defence procurements, critical mineral and material acquisitions for high-end electronics, and valuable commodities that can be traded like currency (such as gold, silver, platinum, diamonds, etc.) will be shifted for resilience, the reality is that, even with natural disasters, sanctions, trade wars, and actual wars, most companies aren’t going to make any changes to their supply chains (unless given absolutely no choice) because

• finding new suppliers (in new countries) takes time and effort
• qualifying new suppliers (in new countries) takes time and effort
• identifying and contracting reliable carriers takes time and effort
• building and securing new supply lines takes time and effort
• etc.

and most companies are in constant fire-fighting mode, overworked, overstressed, and they just don’t have the time as long as the current supply chain, while strained, still works. Until their supply completely dries up, their primary production lines and revenue streams are threatened, and they have no other choice, they won’t change because they’ll keep telling themselves random natural disasters won’t impact them, the tariffs are only temporary, sanctions change with administrations, and wars eventually end.

9. Your employees will orchestrate outcomes.

Woody Woodpecker, take it away!

The level of talent needed to orchestrate outcomes is well beyond the average level of talent in an average (and even most above average) Procurement Department(s). There’s a reason that talent is a concern, a <href=”” target=_blank>top risk, and a top barrier for not just the last five years of studies and surveys, but at least the last ten. Talent has been scarce for a decade, and the situation is much worse since COVID. COVID saw many early retirements of the forced and chosen variety. Then the constant fears of recession saw more layoffs, starting with the highest paid (and most experienced) talent first. And you can be damn sure many of them are not coming back. We told you a year ago that talent is about to become scarce, and we’re sad to say we think we underestimated just how scarce talent is about to become.

And the reality is that only top talent can orchestrate outcomes. All the vast majority of talent can do is execute tasks one by one in a well-defined process. They can’t create new processes, and they certainly can’t define new outcome-centric processes on the fly. Especially when the ORCestration platforms they are given can’t even “orchestrate” a process to lead a mouse to the cheese it desperately wants.

10. New Year, New Me.

Who were you last year?

That’s right, the same person you are this year.

This BS lasts until all the bubbly you drank on New Year’s eve wears off, the rose coloured glasses go dim from the glare of doing the same damn thing as you stare at the same damn screen 12 hours a day, and you get overwhelmed with all the same tasks you were doing last year. Within two weeks at most, the new year, new me bullcr@p disappears with your last new years resolution and you’re just fighting to survive being overworked, understaffed, underfunded, and under-resourced, especially on the tech side (because the C-Suite wasted all the budget on a Big X Consultancy Gen-AI project that never even got to beta testing because the prototype phase never actually worked).

Most people won’t even make an effort to improve, which is the best one can hope for! (So if you have an employee who does, proactively give them a raise, any training they ask for, and keep them. Because, as per our response to the last false, and dangerous, prediction, talent is scarce and you should do whatever you can to keep whatever talent you have [instead of trying to replace it with fake AI that will never work fully autonomously].)