Category Archives: Market Intelligence

How to Do “Predictions” Right!

I just finished my dangerous procurement predictions series, where I pointed out 15 of the most dangerous predictions made by the influencers trying to get clicks with sensationalism, whether or not their predictions had any grounding in the real world, and whether or not acceptance of those predictions would lead to disastrous decisions on your part.

And while the majority of annual prediction posts now fall into these first categories, there are still a few, by the old timers, that are done right where they look at where things are, what is happening, and where they are likely to go based on trends and pattern similarity to what came before. (You know, that thing called history that everyone seems to have forgotten about in the AI age that is destined to make the dot com bust look like a tiny blip.)

One example is Bob Ferrari’s Supply Chain Matters post.

Prediction

The true effects of increased tariffs, U.S. trade policy shifts and the nationalization of supply networks will become more impactful in 2026.”

Prediction Background

We had predicted that businesses would be compelled toward executing various forms of China Plus sourcing strategies as a response to increasing trade conflict, significant disruptions and needs for added increased supply network resiliency.”

In December 2025, business broadcasting network CNBC cited data published by Wells Fargo Supply Chain Finance that indicates that since the initial Trump Administration trade conflict, supply chain sourcing diversification has gradually increased away from China and toward the South Asia Pacific region.”

i.e. he looked at the real world situation, and then identified the most logical response … and then followed the market with respect to that response, captured the data, and re-analyzed his position

Tactical Implications

In 2026, the implications of increased tariff will be manifested in higher working capital costs and increased product pricing among various US and global based manufacturers and suppliers.”

Long Term Strategic Implications

Our prediction is that within a two to three year window, the effects of U.S. trade policy will lead to a pronounced transition toward more regional focused product demand and supply networks.”

Furthermore, “what eventually comes of the USMCA trade agreement will have fundamental strategic implications for shifts in North America product demand and supply network frameworks.”

Implications for Strategic Sourcing and Procurement Organizations

Supply chain management teams can no longer focus solely on functionally stovepipe driven key performance and decision-making capabilities nor on singularly focused technology enablement. The organizational implication is one of an end-to-end leadership, goal alignment, and technology enablement perspective.”

i.e. he worked out the short term tactical and long term strategic implications of the developing situation and indicated what leading organizations need to do to survive the turmoil

That’s what a prediction should be — what the reality is likely to be and what an organization needs to do based on that.

Not some whimsical fantasy designed to spread FUD and generate clicks.

Great work Bob!

This post first appeared on LinkedIn.

“Outcomes” is Just Code For …

You’re Getting Ripped Off.

But let’s back up.

THE REVELATOR recently explained Why He’s Done Tracking Gartner (spoiler: they are simply not designed to solve the problem of implementation success in the AI era), and in the post he made two key observations:

1) “Subscription revenue continues regardless of outcome. Predictions expire and are replaced. There are no consequences for failure.”

In other words, they are dangling outcomes, but not doing anything to ensure you get them, and because they are never to blame, the subscription revenue continues. However, it’s only fair to point out that this is NOT unique to Gartner! It’s the Big Analyst Firm Model. It’s why the doctor doesn’t work for Big Analyst Firms (because they refuse to update their methodologies which are decades out of date and hinder more than they help), and why I worked for Spend Matters for years until the buyout (by a PE firm that, frankly, almost destroyed it as they completely stopped all innovation) and why the doctor deeply respects boutique firms like HFS Research because they keep trying to modernize their offerings to provide real value and guide clients to real results.

2) “What scales in this industry is engagement—not outcomes.”

And this is dead-on. The rhetoric is being thrown around by way too many services(-adjacent) firms (who want to charge based on it) and software firms (who won’t charge based on it). And all of it is usually to mislead you on what you should be getting and what you should be paying!

Here’s the reality you’re not being told when they want to, or refuse to, price on outcomes.

1) If a services firm wants to charge based only outcomes, it’s because it expects to make way more money that way. It’s common in audit recovery, contract re-negotiation, and SaaS consolidation because these expert firms know just how much you are overpaying if you’ve never done these efforts before. They also know that they can use cheap software and benchmarks and experience to quickly find the savings you can’t, and make big bucks off of you by charging on outcomes (and not effort and/or software).

2) If a services-as-software firm wants to charge based on outcomes, especially an “Agentic AI” powered one, it’s because their true costs are higher than they let on (due to hefty Gen-AI compute costs) and they aren’t viable offering a classic subscription-based service model.

3) If a software firm refuses to price in (a hybrid cost model based on) outcomes, it’s because they know you won’t get those outcomes unless they (as a firm) put in a lot of work training, guiding, and helping you achieve those outcomes. When their model is “install and backhaul” (out of there) until renewal time (because if they don’t hit their unattainable PE-defined sales numbers, they will be told to hit the road, so they have to spend all their time on sales).

The reality is “outcome-based pricing” only encourages success when done right — and done right is done in a manner that encourages, as THE REVELATOR notes, engagement-focussed.

That’s why, in our post on why you should STOP PAYING PROCURETECH/FINTECH ADVISORIES A DOLLAR JUST TO LOSE THREE DOLLARS!, we told you this is how you should negotiate, and pay for, software and services when “outcomes” are involved:

1. For software, you will pay a base annual fee for the platform that will cover 150% of their base hosting costs, so they won’t lose, and then a percentage of transactions, identified savings through sourcing events, contract value, etc. where the percentage is calculated such that if you save 100% of their promised savings, they will make 50% more than what you would pay on a fixed cost after negotiation -— if they are so confident in their claims, this should be a no-brainer for them. (But if they won’t agree to this, it should tell you what ROI you can actually expect!)

2. For GPO agreements, you will pay a fixed amount on each transaction, calculated based upon the expected savings before you sign the contract, and if they can deliver the savings, you will definitely be using them regularly —- and, as with the Tech Provider — you will calculate this so that they win bigger than if you pay them a fixed cost IF they generate a return for you!

3. For services (outsourcing), you will pay a fixed rate per hour that is enough to cover the assigned personnel cost (their salary plus 30% overhead), and any compensation beyond that will be dependent on the department delivering an ROI beyond a certain amount (which is the amount required to cover the basic fee you are paying them); and again, you’ll fix the compensation such that if they deliver 100% or more of what they promise, they will win big too. (And if they deliver less, while their costs will be covered, their profit will be next to 0.)

Outcomes is a Dirty Word! Part II

And you shouldn’t have to hear it!

The word of the day is still outcomes, and, no matter where it’s used, it’s still a dirty word.

Yesterday we gave you many examples of where outcome-based pricing has become the norm which includes, but is not limited to:

  • GPOs
  • Recovery Audit Firms
  • AI-first services-as-software
  • Big Consultancy projects

and where every single situation the entire point of the “outcome”-based sales pitch was just a ploy to convince you to pay more for less because

  • suppliers will happily match GPO prices for reasonable commitments as they have to pay the GPO a 1.5% to 3.0%+ administrative fee to get that business, and, moreover, at the head of the tail you can always get as good, if not better, prices using a tail-spend sourcing solution that automates 3-bids-and-a-buy RFQs and auctions (in a standard format that allows suppliers to automate bids) … and this solution often costs a fraction of what you will pay the GPO based on transaction fees (and then the additional savings from being able to quote every category at the head of the tail and not just what the GPO offers adds up to a greater savings)
  • proper retail-centric e-Procurment augmented with supplier and product management could prevent 90%+ of overpayments to begin with (and Lavante, Inc. proved that over a decade ago — why else would PRGX have acquired it and taken it off the market)
  • for every reliable AI-first services-as-software solution (as we all know that hallucinatory Gen-AI enables and amplifies fraud, security risks, bad decisions, etc.), there is a traditional SaaS alternative for a fraction of the price that does the same thing if you can do without the natural language chatbot interface and a slick UX
  • once a consultancy gets you on outcome-pricing, they are going to focus on projects where they know you are doing particularly poorly, employ junior grunts with five year old playbooks guaranteed to increase efficiency and reduce costs (because you are way above market average cost or way below market average efficiency), and use AI to generate their reports and strategy presentations (and hope the junior grunts both do their job and catch all the hallucinations in the prepared documents)

But, as we said in our last post, that’s not the worst of it.

The worst part of all these “outcome”-based pricing offers is that they are masquerading the grift that keeps on taking! (Which is something any American reading this should be quite familiar with by now!)

It’s not the overcharging that is the most insidious part of “outcome”-based pricing models, it’s what’s behind them.

  • GPOs want you to turn over more and more and more of your procurement to them because, the more you turnover, the more you reduce staff, and the more dependent you become … locking you in for years to come as your fees skyrocket to the point where you’re paying more to them then it would cost you to buy a modern sourcing to settle solution (that supports regular and semi-automated tail procurement and a couple of buyers [who will simply review any tail-spend awards that are new or out of bounds compared to past awards and select the suppliers for regular sourcing events, which the platform will automate until award time])
  • recovery audit firms want you believe only they can keep millions in your pockets and software will never solve the rampant overspend the suppliers siphon out of you, will do anything they can to further the narrative that you’re going to lose millions without them, that you shouldn’t even try to improve your procurement processes, and it’s best to just turn more spend over to them … again locking you in for years and years when you could be taking steps towards reducing your overspend to almost 0 with the right technology, processes, and senior category managers preventing that overspend from ever happening
  • AI-first service-as-software firms want you to go all-in on their service, fire your buyers, and believe that only their tech can get stellar results before compute costs go through the roof, the AI bubble bursts, and/or everyone realizes that the whole thing is being orchestrated by the Wizard of New Oz, it’s a bigger circus than anything P.T. Barnum ever managed to assemble, and when the curtain closes, all you’ll be left with is empty pockets (and, when you’re not looking, just like the auto-classifiers of old, they will throw as many Another Intern at the problem as required to ensure you succeed)
  • the consultancies don’t want you do anything yourself because once you realize that, if you hire qualified people and installed modern systems, you can do it just as good yourself, do it for less, and save a lot of money … so they will try to keep up the savings and strategy show as long as they can

In other words, the whole goal of “outcome”-based pricing is to take away your self-sufficiency, capability, and even knowledge and ensure your entire existence is 100% dependent on them. That way, they stay super profitable at your expense with the grift that keeps on taking!

At the end of the day, the only vendor who won’t price on outcomes is one that knows they can’t actually deliver any, even with fakery, because any vendor who can will find a way to use this trend to inflate prices and grift your hard earned gains!

P.S. You shouldn’t be surprised. It’s the same old story with a new name. It’s been going on since the first modern Procurement solution hit the market.

Outcomes is a Dirty Word! Part I

And you shouldn’t have to hear it!

The word of the day is outcomes, and, no matter where it’s used, it’s a dirty word.

You all know that where DEI is concerned, especially in North America, it’s a dirty word. As @Jason Busch will explain in detail at every opportunity, DEI has replaced “equal opportunity”, but unlike properly applied equal opportunity, which took us two steps forward, DEI, or at least its “outcome”-focussed interpretation, has taken us two step backs.

These days, everything has to be measured, and the belief is that if you don’t meet the goals for whatever racial/religious/women/minority metric your organization has defined to be an appropriate racial/religious/women/minority mix for your organization, then you aren’t diverse, equitable, and inclusive and, therefore, you should go out and immediately hire the racial/religious/women/minority employees you need to meet the metric. Merit be damned. No longer is it the most qualified resource, where someone of a minority is hired when two or more applicants are otherwise equal, it’s the most qualified resource of the identified minority, who might not be at all qualified for the job! It’s the token black employee taken to a whole new level! Not only does it reward incompetence, but it insults minorities who study and work hard to be just as competent, if not more competent, than their white male counterparts.

But I digress — we already know outcomes is the dirty word of DEI. But what you don’t know is outcomes is a dirty word across the business, wherever it is used – and Procurement is no exception! Why? It’s only become the popular battle cry since the Age of (BS) AI, whereas its prior use was been limited to situations where the consultancy, vendor, or analyst firm could hide the darkness and venom that the word contained.

More specifically, until recently, outside of DEI, outcome was primarily the verbiage of GPOs, who were doing their best to convince you to turn over a significant percentage of your procurement to them, or recovery audit firms, who were doing their best to convince you their services were the only way to recover your money that your suppliers were assuredly screwing you out of.

But they reality is that they’ve been both misleading you since the get-go. Sure a GPO can get you better prices than you can get on the long tail with their volumes, but that’s only true for the long tail. Moreover, the reality is that the costs aren’t that much less, if any less, than what you could negotiate on your own if you did a winner-takes-all long-tail RFQ to a MRO, office supplies, electronics supplier who could meet the volume across your long-tail needs, especially since that GPO is charging the supplier an administrative fee of up to 3%, and they’d happily give you the same price to NOT have to pay that fee! Add to that the GPO is charging you for their services, and you’re not saving much. Plus, when you work your way up to the head of the tail, you are definitely in 3-bids-and-a-buy RFQ or auction territory, and the application of a well designed tail spend sourcing solution will save you just as much as a GPO, IF NOT MORE!

Moving to recovery audit firms, their outcome-based pitches sound great, as you only pay their 33% if they recover the money on your behalf and fatten your bank account, but here’s the thing. If you had a properly designed retail-focussed e-procurement solution that integrated supplier and product management, did m-way matches, and prevented payments where you didn’t have good receipts that matched the invoice that matched the PO where the prices matched the contract, rejected duplicate invoices, tracked rejected units and associated credits, applied those credit notes against future orders (with the matching product), etc., you could prevent all of those overpayments in the first place — despite the fact that all the recovery audit firms tell you that overpayments (and their services) are unavoidable.

But there are more, and more modern, examples. The worst is AI-first services-as-software vendors convincing you that you should pay based on “outcomes” instead of on a traditional SaaS pricing model. Their rationale? The majority of SaaS tools that you are paying for aren’t offering you immediate, measurable, savings and, therefore, are too expensive. But if you paid for software based on “outcomes”, you’d have measurable value and you could claim the fee was worth it. And the argument sounds convincing, even if it’s complete and total bullshit. The purpose of most software is to increase efficiency, not save money. That’s the value.

And when the real reason they are pushing outcome-based pricing is that they can’t afford to sell based on a SaaS model because the compute costs of their BS AI-first are too high to cover on traditional SaaS pricing — even though there is a traditional A-RPA SaaS application that does everything their app does for a fraction of the cloud and compute cost, as long as you don’t need a fancy-smancy natural language interface or a slick UX. In other words, if they were honest about the true value of their application, they could never charge enough to cover their costs and would be out of business yesterday.

A second, more modern, example is the big consultancies taking a queue from their GPO, Recovery Audit, and now AI-first services-as-software peers and trying to justify their highly inflated pricing (which has skyrocketed over the last decade as they became the go-to firms for all big tech strategy). Especially since it’s the only way they can overcharge for projects where they are primarily deploying a multitude of AI agents (which we know produce utter garbage, just look at the Deloitte fiascos in Australia and Canada) and juniors that they hope will catch and clean up all of the hallucinations in the deliverables. (Because if they charged based on what the tech and juniors were worth, in a climate where no one wants to pay inflated rates for consultants for projects with potentially guaranteed return, they wouldn’t be able to maintain their high rates.)

There are more examples, but by now you should see the common theme. Which is simply this: “outcomes” is always a way to charge you more for less (and sometimes next to nothing) (just like DEI is an excuse to replace people with actual capability with people with next to no capability).

But the worst part, the blatant financial rip-off that always accompanies a (pure) “outcome-based” sales pitch isn’t the worst of it!