A recent post by Garry Mansell on why some businesses fail while the numbers still look fine really makes the case on why you need all three types of indicators to be successful.

According to Garry, it happens more often than people admit. The revenue doesn’t collapse first. The reputation wobbles first. And once reputation wobbles, revenue follows on a delay. You can usually see it early, but it appears as weak signals. A different tone from customers. Partners becoming slower to commit. Hiring taking longer. Senior candidates asking slightly sharper questions. Suppliers quietly tightening terms. Teams becoming cautious about promising anything externally. It’s never announced. It’s felt.

The reason boards get surprised by this is that most board packs are built around lagging indicators. By the time the numbers reflect the problem, the organization has already lost something harder to regain … belief.

Revenue numbers are lagging indicators, but those are key indicators in the board pack. What are needed are lasting — sales cycle time — and leading — sales cycle time trend changes — indicators. If the revenue cycle time is increasing, and has been for the last two or three quarters, that’s a really bad sign, even if revenue is more-or-less staying constant because a flat organization can only support so many sales cycles, and revenue will start falling if they drag out much longer.

The same problems appear in Procurement presentations, which typically have the opposite problem, especially when trying to sell new processes or technologies just implemented. They will quote leading indicators like identified savings, and ignore the lasting, average cost per unit reduction adjusted for inflation, or lagging, actual savings vs. projected savings 12, 24, and even 36 years ago (for three year contracts). After all, as far as the CFO and CEO are (rightly) concerned, it’s not savings if it doesn’t hit the P&L!

So make sure to include all three indicators. In Procurement:

• leading indicators define what should be possible
• lasting indicators define what path the organization is on
• lagging indicators define what the Procurement organization has actually achieved

Just like, in Sales:

• lagging indicators define what happened in the past
• lasting indicators define what is happening now
• leading indicators define what is going to happen … and how good, or bad, it’s likely to be

To remain successful, revenue must, at least remain on track, if not increase in an organization just like Procurement success must also remain on track, if not increase.