Author Archives: thedoctor

We’re Still Stuck in 2009 … Why?

Five years ago, the doctor wrote a post about how the doctor’s 2014 Procurement Prediction is Going to Come True and that 2014 was going to be 2009 Part VI and

  • the focus will continue to be on cost-cutting and not value-creation,
  • valuable, high-ROI, technology will continue to be ignored, and
  • the training and new talent budgets will remain empty.

And it was a sad state of affairs. And he’d hoped that, by now, things would have changed. But if you check the latest “Deloitte Global CPO Survey”, 78% of CPOS are still PRIMARILY FOCUSSED on Cost Reduction!

Unless they’re Procurement team has been totally incompetent for the last five year, that’s not going to happen. We’re about to return to Depression Era Economics. We’re heading for a downturn a result of a global slowdown in GDP growth. China can’t keep building empty cities. The US can’t continue to build (defence) debt and grow without an immigrant workforce that will do the jobs Americans don’t want. Goods can’t continue to get cheaper when labour costs are rising and materials are becoming scarce. Outsourcing is not going to get cheaper when transportation costs have to rise as energy (oil) costs rise. And so on.

Also, the study found that, even in 2018, only one third of Procurement Leaders use modern technologies such as predictive analytics and collaboration networks.

And over half of Procurement Leaders believe that their current teams do not have sufficient levels of skills and capabilities to deliver on their procurement strategy … proving that they have, as expected, not been investing in training like they should have been.

Eleven years ago, Hackett published a vision of Procurement in 2020 where it predicted that, through a year-over-year evolutionary strategy, it would reach the point where it was harnessing the power of supply markets to maximize the value it is getting from its spend, enabling business strategy, and optimizing its tactical execution. But, in an average organization, Procurement is, at least for now, still overspending, still divorced from business strategy, and unable to react to unexpected disruptions or opportunities in the supply chain.

And it looks like 2020 is, not as everyone predicted in the noughts, going to be 2009 Part XI. Who will take the lead and change it?

Sixty Five Years Ago Today …

…when Russia, not Mexico, was the enemy, the United States and Canada agreed to construct the Distant Early Warning Line (and, unknowingly, inspire one of Canada’s classic rock anthems that would be released thirty years later).

Thus began a system of radar systems in the far northern Arctic region of Canada with additional stations along the North Coast and Aleutian Islands of Alaska, as well as placements on, or near, the Faroe Islands, Greenland, and Iceland. There was no way Soviet Bombers were going to sneak up on us over the pole or send a land and/or sea invasion using the arctic route!

And while the application was defence, it spurred a lot of investment in radar technology, that our modern control towers rely on, as the project was given a priority rush status and completed in less than 3 years, at a latitude that could only be reached by ships during the summer months, which also resulted in advancements in cross-border and joint logistical operations.

Still No Love for the Oompa Loompas this Valentine’s Day

It seems the days of the oompa loompas are long past … as they have been on hard times for over a decade now. Not much has changed in the last ten years. They got no love then, they get no love now.

Just look at some of the headlines from the past year:

  • Feb 9, 2019 Child Slave Labor Rampant in Chocolate Supply Chain
    Sixty percent or more of the world’s cocoa is produced in the Ivory Coast and Ghana in West Africa. These countries are notorious for the worst forms of child slavery. An estimated 1.9 million children are engaged in forced labor on the Ivory Coast alone.
  • Jan 21, 2019
    Do you want slavery with that chocolate?
    Most chocolate has been through two separate supply chains before you buy it. The second chain is where a confectioner … buys bulk finished chocolate or chocolate components from one of the huge global companies that make these.
    The first chain is where these huge global companies buy cacao from farmers and make it into finished chocolate and components (cocoa powder, chocolate liquor, cocoa butter, etc.). It’s mainly the market in this first chain where the problem lies. Almost all of the sellers of cacao are little more than subsistence operations … the buyers can set the price. This extremely uneven market and other capitalist pressures have created a situation where the world has a huge demand for cacao, and yet the farmers who produce it cannot possibly pay     (or earn) a fair wage at the prices …
  • Jan 9, 2019 Chocolates, caramels might be contaminated with hepatitis A, FDA warns
    Candy sold by a Kentucky company and QVC is being voluntarily recalled for fear that it might be contaminated with hepatitis A, according to a U.S. Food and Drug recall notice.
  • Nov 30, 2018 Global chocolate supply chain tainted by abuses in Brazil
    The global chocolate supply chain is tainted by the use of cocoa from Brazilian farms where human rights violations are common, a report released Friday said. Among the abuses detailed are farmers forced to work off debts to landowners or in degrading conditions, as well as thousands of instances of child labor.
  • Nov 06, 2018 Taiwan finds pesticide in organic chocolate from France (Taiwan News)
    Taiwan stopped a batch of organic chocolate from France at the border because it contained an excessive level of the pesticide Piperonyl butoxide. The substance was listed as a low-to-medium-level toxic material, likely to raise the possibility of liver cancer in animals.
  • Feb 15, 2018 Cadbury Caramilk chocolate comeback tainted by product recall
    A “limited number” of Cadbury Caramilk chocolate blocks have been recalled just two weeks after the retro treat made a popular comeback to Australian stores earlier this month. All Caramilk 190-gram blocks … have been recalled due to a number of products found to contain small pieces of plastic.

The continued plight of the oompa loompas is very unfortunate considering that many studies have found that (dark) chocolate is good for you. Now, ten years ago we said you should be rewarding the oompa loompas for their hard work, but considering that even if they are working hard and not using slave (child) labour or tainted chocolate, we can’t be sure that the producers they are buying the raw cocoa from are even remotely ethical.

They still deserve a a little love, but they also deserve some new job opportunities. They work hard, and it’s not their fault everyone else is less ethical than them.

The Content Art (Repost)


Upstart Blog
Upstart Blog
Blog Upstart
That Blog Upstart!
That Blog Upstart!
I do not like
that Blog Upstart!

Do you like
the content art?
I do not like it,
Blog Upstart.
I do not like
the content art.

Would you like it
here or there?
I would not like it
here or there.
I would not like it
anywhere.
I do not like
the content art.
I do not like it,
Blog Upstart.

Would you like it
on the page?
Would you like it
from a sage?
I do not like it
on the page.
I do not like it
from a sage.
I do not like it
here or there.
I do not like it
anywhere.I do not like the content art.
I do not like it, Blog Upstart.

Would you read it
in a box?
Would you read it
in your socks?
Not in a box.
Not in my socks.
Not on the page
Not from a sage.
I would not read it here or there.
I would not read it anywhere.
I do not like the content art.
I do not like it, Blog Upstart.

Would you? Could you?
In a car?
Read it! Read it!
Here they are.
I would not,
could not,
in a car.

You may like it.
You will see.
You may like it
in a tree!
I would not, could not, in a tree.
Not in a car! You let me be.I do not like it in a box.
I do not like it in my socks.
I do not like it on the page.
I do not like it from a sage.
I do not like it here or there.
I do not like it anywhere.
I do not like the content art.
I do not like it, Blog Upstart.

A train! A train!
Could you, would you,
on a train?
Not on a train! Not in a tree!
Not in a car! Blog, let me be!I would not, could not, in a box.
I would not, could not, in my socks.
I will not read it on the page.
I will not read it from a sage.
I will not read it here or there
I will not read it anywhere.
I do not like the content art.
I do not like it, Blog Upstart.

Say!
In the dark?
Here in the dark!
Would you, could you, in the dark?
I would not, could not,
in the dark.

Would you, could you, in the rain?
I would not, could not, in the rain.
Not in the dark. Not on a train.
Not in a car. Not in a tree.
I do not like it, Blog, you see.
Not on the page. Not in a box.
Not from a sage. Not in my socks.
I will not read it here or there.
I will not read it anywhere.

You do not like
the content art?
I do not like it,
Blog Upstart.

Could you, would you, in your coat?
I would not, could not, in my coat.

Would you, could you, on a boat?
I could not, would not, on a boat.
I will not, will not, in my coat.
I will not read it in the rain.
I will not read it on a train.
Not in the dark. Not in a tree.
Not in a car. You let me be.
I do not like it in a box.
I do not like it in my socks.
I will not read it on the page.
I will not read it from a sage.
I do not like it here or there.
I do not like it ANYWHERE.I do not like the content art.
I do not like it, Blog Upstart.

You do not like it.
So you say.
Try it! Try it!
And you may.
Try it and you may, I say.
Blog!
If you will let me be.
I will try it.
You will see.Say!
I like the content art.
I do! I like it, Blog Upstart.
And I would read it in a boat.
And I would read it in my coat.

And I will read it in the rain.
And in the dark. And on a train.
And in a car. And in a tree.
It is so good, so good, you see!

So I will read it in a box.
And I will read it in my socks.
And I will read it on the page.
And I will read it from a sage.
And I will read it here and there.
And I will read it anywhere.

I do so like
the content art.
Thank you!
Thank you!
Blog Upstart.

Your Successful Supply Chain will NOT be Autonomous!

the doctor has recently seen a few pieces out there on the forthcoming autonomous supply chain and even a few pieces on the “self-driving” supply chain. Eek! Just like we’re not ready for AI-enabled self-driving cars that will drive us off a cliff as soon as they become self-aware (and that’s why you can have Carl and I’ll stick with Alfred), we’re not ready for self-driving supply chains that “predict” future demand, automatically order large numbers of products for you, and push them to local warehouses and retail stores without any human intervention.

Just because your demand sensing engine, which works well for established products, can use PoS data and other demand signals to auto-reorder staples with 98% accuracy doesn’t mean it can predict the success of an upcoming, or relatively new, product line — especially if it’s new for your business and you are, unbeknownst to your sensing engine, about to be beat to market by your nearest competitor — and it’s in the consumer electronics industry where first to market typically captures 10% to 30% just for being first. The last thing you want is for the platform to increase your initial order by 30%, ship straight to store, and then have it sit there for six months, and depreciate. Not a good use of cash.

Nor do you want your TMS automatically assigning shipments to carriers, intermediate warehouses, and ports without any human intervention. Software with limited data feeds often have no forewarning when a port might shutdown due to a strike, but humans might. Nor will a limited feed software algorithm know when a border might close and also close a supply route. But a human might. And so on.

And, despite what Amazon may think, you definitely don’t want to be thinking about anticipatory shipping. As we noted in our post five years ago, while predictive analytics is getting better by the day, it’s still hit and miss at a granular level. And individual purchases are quite granular. Just because 4 out of every 5 people who buy a Buzz Lightyear Cup also buy a Sheriff Woody Saucer, doesn’t mean the 4 people that your “AI” chooses will. One of them might not like saucers. Or Sheriff Woody. Shipping on an anticipatory nature guarantees that at least one out of every 20 units will be unwanted, and as many as one out of every 4. That’s a lot of returns. And, as we have noted again and again, including our recent article on how there is no free lunch, and there is no free shipping either, that could get quite pricey. How are you supposed to keep costs down if you have to budget for amortized high, wasted, return shipping costs across every unit?

So please, please, don’t try to give your supply chain autonomy. Automate it. Apply the best assisted intelligence solutions on the market to provide one-click recommendations, but always make sure there is a human check before any decisions are made that affect millions of dollars.