Category Archives: Best Practices

Do You Know the Value of Visibility In Your Supply Chain?

A recent manufacturing study found that 86% of organizations experienced significant supply chain disruptions in the last 12 months. In addition, a number of studies have proven that the rate of supply chain disruptions are increasing. This means at this point in time, the chances of your organization not experiencing a significant disruption in the next 24 months is 2% and dropping — fast!

It is true that certain disruptions, like those caused by natural disasters, cannot be prevented and others, like supplier failures that result from financial implosions as a result of undetected fraud or the unexpected loss of a major customer, cannot be predicted. But that doesn’t mean that there isn’t value in knowing about them as soon as they occur, because they can be mitigated, or at least minimized, with enough time to take appropriate action.

However, if your first indication of a disruption that happened months ago is when an expected shipment from a tier 1 supplier is 3 days late, it’s too late! If the disruption was the result of a natural disaster that wiped out multiple industrial parks in a region, and those parks produced over half of the world’s supply of the raw material or critical component that your goods require (such as storage drives for custom-built computer systems*), then by the time the shipment doesn’t show up, any excess supply has already been locked up by the competition.

There is a big value to visibility. How big? A recent IBM study, found that the average supply chain disruption is 6 weeks and that as a result of a disruption, sales decrease an average of 7% in the following year. If demand for your product was roughly constant over a year, that’s 1/8th or 12.5% of your sales wiped out overnight, plus additional losses of 7% in the following year as a result of customer defection, because it’s not likely that your customers are going to wait months for a product if your competitor has a similar product at a similar price point. In other words, kiss an average of 10% of your revenue on the affected product lines good-bye for the next two years.

However, if you can prevent the disruption, even if it means acquiring replacement inventory from a higher-cost supplier and using expedited shipping, you can prevent the vast majority of these losses. And even if your organization has to pay a 30% premium to prevent the supply chain disruption, given that the average organization spends 58% of revenue on sourced products and services, this means that the premium would be capped at 17% of affected revenue, or 2% of overall revenue vs the 10% of revenue that would be lost otherwise.

And if the only way to prevent the disruption is with enough advance warning, that says that the value of visibility in this example is 8% of the revenue at risk from a supply chain disruption. This is huge!

However, that’s just a small part of the value that Supply Chain Visibility can bring you. For deeper insight into the value of visibility, download SI’s latest white-paper on “The ROI of Supply Chain Resiliency: It’s More Than You Think” (Registration Required), sponsored by Resilinc. You might be surprised at how much hidden value you can extract from your Supply Management operations.

* As you might recall, the Thailand floods seriously damaged the factories that produced a significant number of the world’s hard drives, as Thailand is the world’s second largest producer of hard drives.

8 Key Design Considerations for Optimizing Your Demand Planning Process: Part I


Today’s guest post is from Josh Peacher, a Senior Consultant in the Operations Practice of Archstone Consulting, A Hackett Group Company.

Demand Planning was once an overlooked element of supply chain management. However, more and more companies are beginning to understand how essential this component is to overall operational well-being. After all, a demand forecast is the genesis of the supply chain process. If poor demand signals are being sent through the system, it becomes extremely difficult to manage raw material and finished goods inventories, execute an efficient manufacturing process, effectively service customers, and ultimately drive an accurate financial forecast. So if your organization hasn’t already taken a long, hard look at improving its demand planning process, it’s time to begin. As a starting point for your journey, let’s take a look at the 8 key design considerations for optimizing your demand planning process. In this first installment, we’ll focus on the 4 most basic design considerations and then move to more advanced principals in the second installment.

1. Start with Statistical Forecasting and Exception Management

  • Statistical forecasting should always drive the original forecast. A simple set of formulas such as exponential smoothing, weighted moving average, and Holt-Winters can deliver more accurate, reliable, and efficient forecasts across the entire sku base than manual forecasts. This can often be a change management challenge for many organizations as demand planners feel a pride of ownership over their forecast and have trouble with relinquishing control to a set of arithmetic functions. This is where exception reporting comes into play.
  • Exception reporting utilizes a set of pre-defined criteria to identify skus that are not ideal candidates for statistical forecasting. Since the strength of statistical forecasting comes from identifying patterns in demand history, highly erratic and/or variable skus are not good candidates and require manual intervention of the forecast. While exception criteria are customizable, common filters include frequent zero demand periods, high variance between last 6 months history and next 6 months forecast, high variance in month-over-month demand history, and frequent shortages. Exception reporting is also an excellent way for demand planners to prioritize their time across the sku set and focus their efforts on the skus that truly require attention.

2. Select the Right Software Tool

In today’s environment of sku proliferation and real time information, it’s become a necessity to utilize a demand planning tool to assist with the demand planning process. Software solutions such as Manugistics, SAP APO, and Logility all have their strengths and weaknesses. Key criteria to evaluate when selecting a solution include:

  • Customer service reputation of the provider
  • The tool’s ability to handle forecasting nuances (i.e., 5-4-4 calendar recognition and promotional forecasts)
  • Transparency and reliability of the generated statistical forecast
  • Forecast performance reporting and exception reporting capabilities
  • Flexibility to forecast at multiple levels (e.g., sku, customer, category, business unit)

3. Track the Right Metrics

Demand planning metrics should serve two purposes:

  1. Identify improvement opportunities and
  2. Drive accountability.

The appropriate metrics will vary based on the characteristics of the industry and company in question. However, a few core, agnostic metrics are routinely found in leading organizations. These include:

  • WAPE (Weighted Absolute Percent Error) – In my opinion, WAPE is the most balanced and telling measure of forecast error. Some professionals will advocate for MAPE. However, MAPE doesn’t effectively account for volume as the forecast error % for each period is treated equally.
  • BIAS – Bias is similar to forecast error. However, bias provides a measurement of whether your forecast tends to be above or below actual demand thus signaling a forecasting over/under “bias”.
  • Period-over-Period Error Trend – You’ll want to understand whether your demand planning process is improving or digressing. Measuring the forecast accuracy over time will also help to identify meaningful changes occurring in the business.

4. Leverage the Correct Data

Statistical forecasting and exception management will help to get a reasonably accurate forecast. However , to drive forecast error down to best-in-class levels, demand planners must leverage external information.

There is an abundance of information that demand planners could call upon to help them adjust their forecast. The real art of demand planning is knowing which of these data sources to use and when. Over time, your organization will get a sense for which information streams are most relevant and can begin to build a rules-based process around the use of external information.

Thanks, Josh! We look forward to Part II.

The Right MindSet is the Foundation for a Successful Procurement Career but

the mind has to be prepared for the job at hand to succeed.

A recent post on “the right mindset: what does it take to have a successful acquisition career today” over on the Public Spend Forum (powered by Spend Matters and the Censeo Consulting Group) by David Wyld did a great job of outlining twelve traits that procurement professionals need to succeed in supply management today. However, while these traits may do a great job of laying the foundation for a procurement career, they are not sufficient on their own to prepare one for a successful procurement or supply management career.

SI would add at least six additional traits to the list, three major traits and three minor traits. The major traits that SI would insist are necessary for success in today’s Supply Management space are:

Technological Competence

Modern Supply Management runs on modern supply management technology – without it, best-in-class status is unobtainable as sophisticated spend analysis, decision optimization, and decision support systems are need to analyze, manage, and squeak cost savings and efficiency out of modern supply chain networks.

Risk Awareness and Risk Averseness

The rate of supply chain disruptions is increasing year-over-year and the chances of a major multi-national not experiencing a disruption over a twenty-four month period is 2% or less and dropping fast. In order to succeed, a supply manager needs to be aware of risk and have a mindset to mitigate it before it happens. Contingency and mitigation are the new modus operandi.

Project Management

Sourcing is no longer three-bids-and-a-buy. It is a sophisticated process that typically involves sophisticated supply market research, should cost models, deep category expertise, fact-based negotiations, and in-depth analysis. In addition, most sourcing exercises are category-focussed and need to be managed as category-based projects.

The minor traits that SI would insist are necessary are necessary for success in today’s Supply Management space are:

Habitual Change (Management)

Supply Management is in a state of constant flux these days as technologies, best practices, and global trade regulations are constantly changing and shifting. In order to stay on top of the supply chain game, a practitioner needs to be ready to adapt as needed.

A Sustainable Mindset

Oil reserves are limited. Demand for rare earth metals is increasing. Food reserves are hovering near all-time lows. Water is becoming scarce. Energy production is limited in many locales. A Supply Management professional needs to not only be thinking about the environment, but needs to be focussed on sustainable alternatives in order to keep production going.

Cost Conscious

Inflation is back, and hyper-inflation might be just around the corner. Manual processes are costly, and a lack of data is costlier. A Procurement Professional has to always have cost at the back of her mind and identify unique and creative ways to contain costs going forward.

So How Do You Align Your Supply Management Organization and Advance its Maturity?

In our last post we indicated that the expected value of Supply Management maturity was a 50% improvement in ROIC and a 75% improvement in Operating Margin, but that effort was needed for an organization to reach that maturity level. However, any effort involved would pay off handsomely as this is only an average – for example, in “Enterprise Procurement – Back on Track”, a presentation on Aurizon’s Procurement Transformation presented last month, Roger McNeill documented a ROIC increased from 2.0% in 2010 to 8.0% in 2013, a 300% improvement!

We also indicated that if the effort was put into the right process, specifically the EPAM (Evaluate. Plan. Act. Measure.) process, the organization could move up the maturity curve and see this success, as well as make the necessary alignments with the business in the process. So how does it do this?

1. Evaluate

Start by measuring the organizational maturity on the axes of proactivity and organizational alignment. Specifically, is the organization:

  • Reactive and/or Internally Focused
    a Supply Management organization that is reactive and/or internally focussed is typically near the bottom of the maturity curve, still approaching sourcing from an auction or best-bid perspective, running on an ERP, and quoting savings numbers without validation
  • Proactive and Metric Focussed
    a Supply Management organization that is proactive and metric focussed is typically in the middle of the maturity curve, approach sourcing as a total cost optimization project, implementing P2P, adopting best practices, and measuring realized savings; they’re doing good, but could be doing better
  • Strategic and Organizational Strategy Focussed
    a Supply Management organization that is strategic and focussed on organizational strategy is at the leading edge of the maturity curve, approaching sourcing as a value generation exercise, running on a suite of best of breed source-to-pay solutions, approaching sourcing exercises as strategic joint ventures with other organizations, creating best practices, and measuring outcomes against shareholder value and time to that value

Plan.

Where the organization is on the curve dictates what the organization has to do next.
An organization that is:

  • Reactive and/or Internally Focused
    needs to plan sourcing events with ample time to do the detailed spend and market analysis required to approach the category strategically, move to bid evaluation on total cost (of ownership) and not just landed cost models, implement a P2P or e-Procurement system to capture organizational spend and increase Spend Under Management (SUM), implement an appropriate e-Sourcing solution, institue best e-Sourcing practices, and start measuring realized savings using the P2P system
  • Proactive and Metric Focussed
    needs to plan sourcing events in conjunction with stakeholders and identify the outcomes that are most important to the stakeholders and give those outcomes the greatest weight in a total value model, run on an integrated end-to-end Source-to-Pay suite (which could include sub-suites from different leading BoB [Best-of-Breed] vendors), institutionalize and embed best practices in the sourcing technologies and processes, and measure outcomes using the metrics of interest to finance and the C-Suite (like ROIC, Operating Margin, increased market share, etc.)
  • Strategic and Organizational Strategy Focussed
    needs to embed itself in NPD and NPI (new product design and new product introduction) to take cost out before cost is baked in by Engineering (or Marketing when it insists on features that most of the target market doesn’t want, which Supply Management can identify by sourcing an appropriate market research study), work with Marketing to help it understand the risks and difficulties in new market entry based on its global market knowledge gained from sourcing from different regions, work with Operations to redesign the corporate footprint to reduce cost and increase sustainability, work with Finance to help it better manage Working Capital based on better demand management and improved cash-flow forecasting, and help the C-Suite define the corporate strategy

Act.

Once the plan is in place, the organization needs to execute the plan. The execution will vary based on the plan.

Measure.

The plan, if properly defined, will include metrics and outcomes that can be measured quantitatively and evaluated qualitatively. When the plan has been executed, the results should be measured, compared against any baselines or expected outcomes, and reported.

The devil is in the details, but the process is sound. And there are a number of leading Supply Management software and solution companies that can help your organization through this process, including BravoSolution, if the organization is looking for software and services, and Deloitte, if the organization already has a sourcing software suite (from a provider that doesn’t provide transformation services). And even it it takes 4-5 years, which is the average for Global 3000 organizations, the end result will be worth it as most save hundreds of millions of dollars and see an increase in key financial metrics of 50% or more.

The Measurable Value of Supply Management Maturity

Simply put:

  1. a ROIC (Return On Invested Capital) of 12.8% vs 8.5% for laggards
  2. an Operating Margin of 14.6% vs 8.4% for laggards

according to BravoSolution (Source), who, as a Best-of-Breed global e-Sourcing software and services provider that has been delivering software and services to global clients for over a decade, has been measuring the maturity of client organizations from the time they start their e-Sourcing journey (with BravoSolution) to the time that they master the e-Sourcing process that BravoSolution supports and the platforms they provide.

This 50% performance improvement in ROIC and 75% performance improvement in Operating Margin should not be too surprising given that all of the analysts firms have been telling us for years that leading Supply Management organizations far outpace laggard Supply Management organizations when it comes to financial success. What should be surprising is that the vast majority of companies still have trouble advancing Supply Management out of the laggard category even though many of the secrets of success have been known for many years.

Especially since the the first step is to align the Supply Management organization with the business (goals). This shouldn’t be hard, but for many companies it is. Why?

Let’s start by considering the reasons for misalignment

  • 5% is due to different drivers
  • 30% is due to (different) data
  • 65% is due to differing definitions

The big problem is still communication. In most organizations, Procurement doesn’t speak the same language as the rest of the business, and Finance in particular. Remember, HR still thinks sourcing refers to the recruiting function, Engineering thinks procurement is calling up the preferred supplier and asking them to ship the required parts for the prototype, and Finance defines savings as the difference between last year’s spend and this year’s spend, not how much savings have been identified or how much cost has been avoided. In order for Supply Management to mature as an organization, it not only has to align with the business goals, but it has to speak the business language.

So how can Supply Management achieve alignment and, at the same time, advance as a function and achieve the financial success that will make it the favourite child of the organization?

The EPAM Loop.
Evaluate. Plan. Act. Measure.

In the 1950’s W. Edwards Denning proposed that business processes should be analyzed and measured to identify sources of variations that cause products to deviate from customer requirements. Specifically, he recommended that business processes be placed in the context of a continuous PDCA (Plan. Do. Check. Act.) feedback loop so that managers can identify and change parts of the process that need improvement. And it was a leap forward in business philosophy at the time (and could even be considered the foundation for the DMAIC (Define. Measure. Analyze. Improve. Control) cycle that is the foundation for Six Sigma. Given that sourcing processes are only improved if they are continuously monitored, it’s obvious that a similar process is needed.

So why can’t we just use the classic PDCA cycle? Simply put, we have no way of knowing whether or not a plan is likely to be beneficial, or even executable by the organization, without an understanding of what the current level of organizational maturity is. That’s why the first thing that needs to be done is an evaluation of where the organization is against a maturity framework, built on the study of Supply Management transformations over the last two decades. When an evaluation is done against a well-defined framework, that is associated with best practices that have been successfully used by leading organizations to advance up the maturity curve, the organization can come up with a plan appropriate to its current level of capability. This not only maximizes the organization’s chance of project success but helps it accelerate up the curve faster than organizations that take their best guess, which amounts to nothing more than trial and error.

Once an organization has a proper transition plan in place, it’s talent should be able to quickly execute on that plan and see some success in the short term. Then, when the project has finished, or in the case of a multi-year project, reached key milestones, the team can measure the results versus the expected results (based on case studies and surveys of organizations who undertook similar projects at a similar maturity level), and determine if they are on-track, ahead, or behind. If the team is behind where they can expect to be, they return to the Evaluation stage, determine the reason for the shortfall, modify the process, and try again. When the team has reached the desired level of success, and advanced up the maturity framework, it begins the EPAM cycle again and comes up with process and technology transitions designed to get it to the next level of maturity.

BravoSolution, which has been working on improving their assessment and change management process for years, has found that the process works so well that they have cemented their global sourcing service offerings on the process, which they are calling BravoAlign. Regardless of what it’s called, the method works, and can work for your organization too.