Category Archives: Finance

Risk Mitigation 2012: Economic

In our last post, we covered some potential mitigations for each of the top three geopolitical risks that we identified in our Risk 2011 series. In this post, we are going to cover some potential mitigations for each of the top three economic risks as we continue our series of posts inspired by the World Economic Forum‘s recently released 6th annual Global Risks report, 2011 edition.

03: Asset Price Collapse

Most of an organization’s capital is tied up in two things — its people and its assets. This includes its buildings, its inventory, and the raw materials that will be used to create future inventory. If all of a sudden the value of each of these assets drops 50% over night, the organization loses 50% of the value of these assets — and will likely sustain additional losses when it has to sell its inventory at a deep discount.

While asset price collapses can’t be prevented if a market is flooded, or a market is cornered, or asset prices are artificially inflated by collusion and then drop rapidly when the inflation cannot be maintained, it is often the case that impending asset price collapse can be predicted in advance. Asset prices rise and fall, and they always fall if they get to high. While the exact time, and degree, of collapse cannot always be predicted accurately, it’s often possible to predict an approximate time of collapse, and an approximate degree. If a price collapse is coming, the organization can reduce buys to minimal levels, sell off unnecessary assets in a controlled manner, or, if possible, hold onto them until such time as asset prices return to reasonable levels.

02: Extreme Energy Price Volatility

Today’s organizations are ultimately dependent upon three things – people, raw materials, and the energy required to transform the raw materials into the product the organization will sell. If oil doubles in price, that could make the difference between being able to produce the goods in China and import them into the US for sale at a profit and having to import them into the US for sale at a loss (or risk losing the entire inventory).

Energy price volatility is not going to go away. An organization has two options, try to predict the volatility and ride it out as best as it can, or try to restructure its operations such that it is not (as) dependent on volatile energy sources. There are two ways it can achieve this goal. First of all, it can focus on streamlining its operations to make them as lean as possible. Reducing the energy required is the first step. Secondly, it can invest in creating its own green energy sources to minimize its dependence on external sources. This will go a long way to not only stabilizing its energy costs, but to preventing energy spikes in the future.

01: Fiscal Crisis

The fiscal crisis can lead to many things — currency volatility, a credit crunch, and overall infrastructure fragility. Weakening currencies can cause costs to skyrocket. A credit crunch can severely restrict cash flow and make it almost impossible for an organization to temporarily borrow the cash it needs to secure the inventory required to produce the goods it plans to sell to create revenue and, eventually, generate profit. And infrastructure fragility, which weakens every time there is insufficient cash to invest in necessary maintenance, can result in transportation lanes, power plants, and basic utilities becoming unavailable overnight.

If the organization is a global multi-national, currency volatility can be mitigated by keeping keeping cash in multiple currencies. If a credit crunch is likely, the organization can reduce its expansion and investment plans to maintain enough cash on hand to continue operations without interruption. And if the infrastructure is becoming fragile, the organization can invest in infrastructure improvements. If the government will take loans (by selling bonds) to finance improvements, the organization can invest to insure continued availability of necessary public infrastructure. If not, the organization can invest in its own infrastructure to the greatest extent possible or relocate operations to where the infrastructure is strong and expected to stay strong.

Risk 2011: Economic

In our last post, we discussed the top three geopolitical risks facing your Supply Management organization that were chronicled in the World Economic Forum‘s 6th annual Global Risks report. Chronicling thirty seven types of risk divided into five categories, this report did a tremendous job of covering the types of risk that an average Supply Management organization needs to prepare for. Today, SI is going to continue its coverage of the report by discussing what it believes are the top three risks from an economic perspective.

03: Asset Price Collapse

Most of an organization’s capital is tied up in two things – its people and its assets. This includes its buildings, its inventory, and the raw materials that will be used to create future inventory. If all of a sudden the value of each of these assets drops 50% over night, the organization loses 50% of the value of these assets – and will likely sustain additional losses when it has to sell its inventory at a deep discount.

02: Extreme Energy Price Volatility

Today’s organizations are ultimately dependent upon three things – people, raw materials, and the energy required to transform the raw materials into the product the organization will sell. If oil doubles in price, that could make the difference between being able to produce the goods in China and import them into the US for sale at a profit and having to import them into the US for sale at a loss (or risk losing the entire inventory).

01: Fiscal Crisis

The fiscal crisis can lead to many things – currency volatility, a credit crunch, and overall infrastructure fragility. Weakening currencies can cause costs to skyrocket. A credit crunch can severely restrict cash flow and make it almost impossible for an organization to temporarily borrow the cash it needs to secure the inventory required to produce the goods it plans to sell to create revenue and, eventually, generate profit. And infrastructure fragility, which weakens every time there is insufficient cash to invest in necessary maintenance, can result in transportation lanes, power plants, and basic utilities becoming unavailable overnight. The ramifications of a fiscal crisis can reach far and wide.

Working Capital in Europe is at an All Time High

But yet, so is unemployment. What’s the deal? According to this recent article over on the Financial Director site (in the UK), on how “working capital bounces back”, Europe’s biggest companies have seen the most significant revenue growth in five years. However, these same companies are hoarding their cash and, in many cases, borrowing to do so, while smaller companies remain starved for capital and unemployment remains near 10%.

This is, in a word, disgusting. As SI posted last Thursday, you get nothing for nothing, so if all your company is doing is hoarding cash instead of spending it on talent and innovation, it doesn’t, at least in SI’s view, have a very bright future. Especially given the overall state of the European economy with entire countries risking default on debt. While SI doesn’t know exactly how much cash the 1000 largest Europe-headquartered public companies are hoarding, SI is sure that it’s enough to make quite a dent in the unemployment wake and economic stability of the EU — something that would be very good for global supply chains that probably can’t afford more costly hits from economic instability and the rising prices that such instability entails.

Buy India, Sell China?

A recent article on Fortune on “Another Global Recession? Buy India, Sell China” caught my attention because, while I think China is over-hyped, I’m not sure India is ready for prime yet due to their infrastructure problems and the issues with getting freight from even a few hundred miles inland in many parts of the country. China still has problems, but they have been investing Billions to improve their infrastructure in recent years and making progress at a rapid rate whereas India, with twenty-eight states and seven union territories, and 22 languages of official status, has been slow to tackle their logistics challenges due to the very long timeframes it takes to get agreements on projects of a national scale. (It probably doesn’t help that the Republic of India is a federation with a parliamentary system that was based on that of Great Britain, where some projects take so long that they literally cross career life-spans!)

So why is the article recommending to Buy India, and Sell China? According to the authors, even though BRIC countries are growing at a rapid rate, countries like Brazil and China are doing so at the expense of other countries — primarily by supplying the global economy with raw materials and manufacturing. If major financial crises (continue to) materialize in the US and the EU, and global demand slumps significantly, these countries are going to get hit the hardest and the growth-rates of nearly 10% will be unsustainable. (And depending on which fear-monger you ask, growth could come to a screeching halt.) And this doesn’t even take into account the deep financial exposure China has to troubled regions through its massive foreign exchange reserves.

On the other hand, poorer, insulated economies like India are in much better shape to weather the storm and, in some economists’ views, even see a silver lining if major obstacles (such as nosebleed inflation rates) decline or disappear.

I have to agree, but only to a point. China is experiencing a rapid rise in its middle class at home and the local economy is booming as well. Plus it has a very aggressive five year plan, and a history of meeting those five year plans. While it will get hit hard, and probably drop down to a growth rate of 5% if a double-dip global recession hits us (just like its growth rate fell from 13% in 2007 to 6.8% in 2008), it will continue to grow and, more importantly, will likely be the first to recover when the double-dip recession ends (if it does hit us).

In other words, if you are one of the few investors left with the brains to take a long term view, don’t count China out yet. It may experience a few bumps, but it will figure out how to smooth them over as it builds its global highways. Moreover, if you’re looking to get rich quick, it will likely be another decade before India provides you with that opportunity. If you’re patient, I believe you can win with both economies.

McKinsey Just Gave Us the Best Argument for Next Practices

From a recent McKinsey Quarterly newsletter:

Spurious frameworks and torrents of data often obscure the basic principles of good strategy. To beat the market, companies must exploit imperfections that stop (or at least slow) its workings. Such competitive advantages are scarce and fleeting because markets drive a reversion to mean performance … . Good strategies therefore emphasize difference …
     From “Why best practice isn’t the best strategy”

But more importantly, an analysis of ROIC and EV/IC for top, middle, and bottom quintile companies from 2001 to 2009 shows an drop in ROIC of almost 75% (from above 15% to below 4%) and a drop of EV/IC of almost 85% (from about 3.2 to 0.5).

Best practices aren’t enough anymore. We need next practices.

As a side-note, the next Next Practices Xchange, hosted by the Mpower Group and one of the few forums dedicated to the discussion of next practices, is November 4, 2011.