Category Archives: Global Trade

Is Your Supply Management Organization About to Move to Asia?

As per this recent article over on the McKinsey Quarterly on “Translating Innovation into US Growth: An Advanced-Industries Perspective”, the US is posed for a future in which the elements of economic leadership are moving abroad. The US might still be the global leader in R&D spending overall, but in order to maintain its competitive edge, it has to be able to devise innovations the world wants and needs and translate those into economic leadership.

Economic leadership requires more than a capital market system that encourages (and rewards) risk taking and entrepreneurship, more than simply attracting top students and teachers globally, and more than bulk spending. As per the article, it also requires cutting-edge technology, demand, talent, and entrepreneurial spirit. And, right now, the US is falling behind on each of these.

Cutting-Edge Technology
In leading industrial technologies — such as advanced batteries, high-speed rail, hybrid automobiles, solar modules, offshore wind turbines, and machine tools — the United States finds itself competing against, or even catching up, with foreign companies and engineers. Furthermore, as the article notes, the US is now relying on Japan, Russian, and Western Europe to launch its satellites — an industry it used to pretty much own globally. If the US can’t even compete in green energy, it’s in for trouble.

Demand
More than 50% of the global middle class now lives outside North America and the demand for many next-generation products is now coming from Asia, Latin Ameria, and the Middle East. These customers are creating new markets and dictating preferences. US products for the US market are no longer profitable on their own in many industries.

Talent
Scientific and engineering talent is now building up outside the US while one-third of US manufacturing companies are suffering from skills shortages. Cutting edge research is moving to India and China as well as accelerating in Japan and Germany.

Entrepreneurial Spirit
Once a mainstay of the private sector, risk aversion to new vetures is increasing across the board in the US. At the same time, the “new” India is becoming much more entrepreneurial and risk taking. It’s not a good combination.

Then, when you also consider:

Cost
Many emerging countries have labour and overall operating costs that are still only a third of labour and operational costs in North America or Europe.

Success
A number of global multinationals, including IBM, have proved that you can move global Financial, Services, and Supply Management organizations to China and India and still be a world-class organization.

it becomes impossible not to ask if your supply management organization is about to move to Asia.

Where is Global Trade’s Groove?

A recent headline over on the World Trade Magazine site that asked whether or not global trade still has its groove got my attention because, even though the global economy tanked from 2008 to 2010, a lot of leading companies are focussed on accelerating the development of Global Business Services centers (which was one of the foci of the recent Hackett Group Best Practices conference) in order to take advantage of lower labour rates in other parts of the world. Plus, I haven’t seen any drop in services outsourcing to India or product manufacturing outsourcing to China. And there has been a resurgence in interest (though not necessarily much in the way of action yet) in moving or creating new manufacturing locations in Mexico and Brazil by US (and even European) companies. So while Global Trade may not have grown as fast as we were predicting back in 2008 before the global recession, it does not appear to have taken any backwards steps by any stretch of the imagination.

Nevertheless, it’s always good to check the pulse. The article addressed the question from a risk, optimism, and emerging market viewpoint.

Risk
The eruption of Eyjafjallajokull in Iceland, the disaster in Japan, and the political upheavals in Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, Algeria, and even Albania are placing risk front and center in the Supply Management landscape. Plus, the consistently high price of oil, which could go even higher due to the instability of oil-exporting countries, puts global sourcing of certain goods at risk as the cost of transportation could soon make some global buys unaffordable. In addition, as more of the household budget goes towards fuel, consumers will have to spend less on unnecessary consumer goods. Then we have price increases across certain categories of raw materials as countries like China implement quotas on rare earth metals and create global supply constraints.

Optimism
The article has an interesting quote from Carlos Rice, Vice President of Supply Chain Services for Crowley Logistics who says that we’ve seen an upturn in the economy recently and we are watching the emergence of new markets — not only in India and greater China — but closer to home in Central and South America. What is happening with Brazil’s economy today is almost unprecedented. So, we see lots of opportunities not just east-to-west, but also north-to-south as well. Plus, there has been continuous growth in the trans-Pacific and Asia-to-Europe markets for some logistics carriers, balance is returning to many global trade lanes, and some carriers are seeing up to 20% growth in logistics to emerging markets that are creating a consistent demand for commodities. The expectation is that container trade will be at upper single-digit growth as a whole.

Emerging Markets
Adrian Gonzalez, director of Logistics Viewpoints, notes that the traditional economic powers like the U.S., Japan, China, and Germany are all looking at other developing areas as opportunities for future growth and you see these countries starting out first as sources of low-cost labor in much the same way as China began its development. Then you see the development of a middle class that begins buying products. And we have the situation where countries like China and India are now able to grow and thrive independently of richer countries. In fact, the World Bank states that developing economies were responsible for 45% of world growth in 2010.

So what’s the projected return on equity (ROE) for those invested in global trade? According to Paul Bingham, economics practice leader at Wilbur Smith Associates, barring another unexpected calamity, the [logistics] industry anticipates a slow yet steady global economic recovery. Right now, about 20% of what comanies manufacture is consumed in other parts of the world. Carlos Rice expects that this number will grow to 80% in the next 10 years or so. I personally think this is a bit ambitous with the high price of fuel, but don’t doubt that it will continue to rise as multi-nationals find new low-cost locales to produce in and new markets to sell it. I think the big difference is that there will be more near-sourcing from neighboring countries, or at least countries on the same continent, than there will be global sourcing from locations halfway around the world. What do you think?

Disadvantages of Home Country Sourcing

Editor’s Note: Today’s post is from Dick Locke, Sourcing Innovation’s resident expert on International Sourcing and Procurement. (His previous guest posts are still archived.)

I’m afraid it was a Republican who used the line “There you go again” in a US Presidential debate. But … there you go again.

I have a few specific comments on the doctor‘s article on the advantages of home country sourcing:

  • Lower freight costs:
    Often true. However, consider that the distance from nearly all of Mexico (except the Zihuatenejo area) to Chicago is less than the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. And Shanghai is closer to San Francisco than Rio is.
  • Air freight is too expensive except for electronics:
    Often true. However you should do your own risk analysis. If you are considering ocean freight, also get an air freight quote. See what percent of the volume would have to go by air before the lowest cost supplier is no longer lowest cost. I’ve seen analyses showing more than 100 percent would have to ship by air.
    Incidentally, this is the basis of risk analysis during the sourcing phase. Find the lowest landed cost supplier and then evaluate several risks to see how much would have to go wrong before the lowest cost supplier is no longer the lowest cost. Consider if the same thing would happen with the second lowest cost supplier. If possible, assign costs to risk-mitigation techniques.
  • Fuel Prices increasing:
    True. That will raise costs for all forms of transit. It will be a smaller increase for ocean freight than it would be for air or truck.
  • Lower inventory Times:
    Having to hold safety stock is a risk mitigation technique. Do a risk analysis and see how much safety stock you would have to hold to make sourcing from the lowest cost supplier the wrong decision.
  • Time Zone Advantages:
    That’s right, unless you are in about the same time zone. It is tiring to make and receive those phone calls at odd hours. On the other hand, during development, there are advantages to having a supplier working during your night shift.
  • Labor productivity:
    Possibly true. The US has the world’s highest labor productivity. However, it might not apply to your product. And labor productivity isn’t the only factor affecting cost. Purchasing skills at the suppliers is another.
  • No Culture Clashes:
    That’s just silly. Try telling your boss that you can’t source from country X because you can’t deal with cultural differences. In most companies, proclaiming ignorance isn’t the road to success unless you state it as part of a training request. It’s a bit self-serving for me to suggest this but there are international purchasing training programs available. Good ones will help you understand the differences between domestic and international purchasing. Cross cultural skill is one of the most important.
  • Low cost factory repair:
    It might well be true that it’s cheaper to repair product at the manufacturer. That’s of course true for domestic suppliers too. But wouldn’t you require the supplier to cover transportation costs for returned goods? And why are you buying from a supplier from whom you expect failures?

It’s the easiest thing in the world to raise objections to buying outside of your home country. Unless you make that decision on a product by product basis based on facts and unless you separate costs from risks, you aren’t doing your job right. At the very least, any professional buyer should know the costs of products, shipping, and duties from major potentially supplying countries.

Dick Locke, Global Procurement Group and Global Supply Training.

Is China Hampering Its Own Growth?

A recent article over on SupplyManagement.com on how “US firms [are] criticising ‘unclear’ Chinese purchasing rules”, just like their “EU counterparts did last month”, had a fairly shocking number: the EU states that inconsistent and poorly implemented legislation caused China to miss out on 1 Trillion of new Business. In other words, it missed out on business equal to 20% of its GDP! For a country that is obviously seeking to regain global dominance, that’s a lot to lose out on.

The blame is being placed on government procurement policies that favour domestic or “indigenous innvation” and the need for foreign firms to transfer IP, licenses, or technology to domestic firms to win business, a requirement looked upon very unfavourably by western firms. And while China may argue strongly for the “protectionist rule”, just like certain American politicians argue strongly for the Buy American provisions in the recent stimulus bill and the Buy American Act passed in 1933, there is a price to be paid. Every dollar of foreign investment that is deterred to another country in the BRIC keeps them one step further from GDP dominance and every opportunity missed to use a foreign firm makes it that much harder for them to get their hands on leading innovations from around the world.

It’s their country, their choice, and a tough call either way with two thirds of their country still considered poor by global (world bank) standards.

Advantages of Home Country Sourcing

In some industries, the US is now a low-cost country due to high transit costs, rising low-cost country labor costs, and high productivity when compared to certain low-cost and emerging economies. As a result, it is not only making sense to pull manufacturing back from China to Mexico for many North American operations, but to also pull manufacturing back to the US. Why is this? In a nutshell:

  • Lower Freight Costs
    With oil rices back to $100 a barrel and rising again, the cost of ocean freight is climbing again, transportation and logistics providers are slapping fuel surcharges on your invoices again, and air is out of the question for anything but high-value, high-density, short life-span goods (like laptops and smartphones).
  • High Speed-to-Market Times
    Insetad of waiting an averge of 3 weeks for the container ship to come in, you’re generally at most 3 days, by road, to get your product from your DC to your most remote store or customer location.
  • Lower Inventory Times
    No need to have product in intermediate warehouses waiting for enough product to fill a TEU or to carry a month (or more) worth of safety stock in the event that an ocean shipment is lost or a supplier misses a ship date.
  • Time Zone Advantages
    Follow-the-sun might be good for service operations, but it’s not good for managers who have to quote production in multiple time zones, work twelve hours a day, and never get enough sleep.
  • Lower Labor Costs per Unit
    A modern factory with a significant amount of automation and highly skilled workers can produce more units per worker hour than an off-shore factory that is only patially automated and run by poorly educated low-skilled workers. So even though the workes might be making 15 – 25 an hour compared to the 3 – 5 an hour, US, that you’d be paying a foreign worker, if they can crank out 5 – 10 times as many units per worker hour, it’s actually cheaper to produce at home. And in many US small towns hit hard by the recessions in recent years, labour really isn’t that expensive to begin with — and loyalty is higher than bustling India industrial centers where your workers leave as soon as a job across the street where they can get 5% more opens up.
  • No Culture Clashes
    If an organization has a low CQ (cultural quotient), working with offshore teams can be a challenge and overall efficiency can be low, and if the organization is not selling its products and services abroad, it’s sometimes not worth the effort to manuacture offshore.
  • Low-Cost Factory Repair
    If the product is complex or requires specialized machinery to repair, that is typically only available on a factory floor, and the factory is half a world away, chances are that a faulty product is just going to end up in the trash and increase overall costs. But if the product can be cheaply shipped back to the factory, chances are it will get repaired or refurbished, and losses will be minimized.