Category Archives: Market Intelligence

Collaboration: Three Views from the Harvard Business Review, Part I

Recently, the Harvard Business Review ran a special series of articles and posts on “Making Collaboration Work”. Some of these articles were quite insightful and a good read for any Supply Management professional looking to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of her supply chain. In this two part series, we are going to address the insights from three recent HBR posts that capture some key insights.

In “collaborate to grow the pie, not just split it”, the authors tell us that far too many retailers and manufacturers opt for pie-splitting instead of collaborating to come up with pie-growing strategies and, as a result, the majority of money spent each year on trade promotion just shifts share from one retailer to another or one manufacturer to another. This results in short-term, unsustainable results where companies are merely “renting share” and destroying long-term industry profitability for everyone involved.

As support for their argument, they reference a recent Neilsen Company macro study analyzing trade promotion across 30 grocery categories which found that only 13% of trade dollars actually result in category growth while 15% result in brand switching, 17% result in store switching, and a whopping 55% just results in subsidized volume (where no new consumers or incremental units are purchased). In this last case, customers who would have purchased anyway get a discount while corporate profits are gutted. And while a manufacturer or retailer might think that consumers only want lower prices, a recent analysis across dozens of categories by the Cambridge Group found that only 10% to 30% of households are truly price sensitive and the rest (who make up the majority) want new benefits and innovation and are willing to pay for them.

Thus, manufacturers and retailers need to collaborate, upfront, on innovation strategies with the consumer in mind and grow the pie. If they do, they can actually increase market share, either by creating a new market (because the product is the first to sail a blue ocean) or by robbing share from a different market. Jimmy Dean is an example of the latter. By expanding its frame of reference beyond just breakfast sausage into convenient breakfast meals centered around sausages, it grew the overall category 25%, drove 2/3rds of the growth, and tripled its frozen breakfast sales. Manufacturers and retailers both won by stealing sales that would have likely gone to fast food establishments instead.

In Part II, we will discuss two more HBR posts that address the inherent value of collaboration.

Mintec – Data for the Masses from the Masses

Regular readers of SI will know the importance of good should-cost modeling (which is also great for negotiations) as well as good market intelligence (which has dimensions and is valuable in a down economy) in cost reduction and avoidance. And while both should-cost modelling and market intelligence have a number of critical requirements that must be met for success, they both have one key requirement in common — good data. But where do you get good data? Certainly not from supplier bids! A new supplier is going to bid what it thinks it can get, not what the actual price is. Market indices from governments and professional associations? Better, but they will typically be at least a month or so behind. Trade associations that track and monitor prices on a daily basis or stock markets that trade the commodity? Great — but do you have the IT skills to integrate the feeds? And are you going to do it for the dozens of raw materials and commodities you need to build your should cost models?

The best place to get data en-masse is from a professional data provider that tracks and integrates all of the feeds you need into a centralized database that is updated with fresh data for the categories you need when you need it and that maintains years of historical data for analysis purposes. One such provider is Mintec. Formed back in 1982 by consultants and analysts who realized that real savings required real data, Mintec has been collecting raw material, commodity, and service price data from around the globe for almost 30 years. Used by 16 of the top 25 Global Food & Beverage & Retail companies, Mintec maintains price data for a database of 75,000 “line items” from A to Z across dozens of industries and categories. It then distills this information into custom databases for each client that contain just the line items they need, pre-processed and normalized to their defaults. (Combine this data with a great expressive-bidding optimization platform, such as that provided by BravoSolution or Trade Extensions and you have cost avoidance engine that can’t be beat!)

To help their clients understand the data, Mintec provides a data analysis package, called Datagain, which can be used to import, graph, analyze, and compare different line items (such as the petrol price in the UK and the petrol price in Australia, normalized to US dollars). A user can graph any set of series, against any frequency, using any (currency and unit) converions, for any date range she chooses. She can also normalize or index this data using a custom formula, factor in seasonality, and plot trends. She can also break the series down across two or four graphs and/or plot specific subseries, against different projections, to see how the price might trend over time under different assumptions. The normalization / indexing equations can use all of the standard algebraic operators and be defined over any set of variables, including user defined variables, that the user chooses.

If the user is not sophisticated at trend analysis, or does not want to do it, Mintec also offers Benchmarking and Market (Intelligence) Report services that do a deep dive into a particular raw material, commodity, or service that discuss recent, current, and projected pricing subject to the state of the market and the dominant factors at play. These, by request, reports complement the monthly market reports and commodity fact sheets that track the major commodities and markets and their relative month-over-month changes for buyers who want to look at the bigger picture. If the user wants to learn more about Datagain, analysis, and should-cost modeling, Mintec also provides on-demand out-of-the-box and customized training sessions as well as quarterly newsletters and occasional articles.

It’s a huge amount of data, that comes at a very low price point. Most customers pay less than 100K £s for access to the data they need, when they need it, updated as often as they like. Moreover, medium-sized business can get basic access (to the datafeeds) and access to the desktop Datagain tool for as little as 10K £s a year. Large enterprises will probably want the on-line hosted applet version (at the higher price-point) that runs through the browser on a hosted database that is accessible anywhere, anytime, and always up to date. While it is more expensive, it’s still cheap compared to what the organization will be paying for their ERP solution (and much more valuable from a cost avoidance perspective).

We Need to Win the Battle for Share of Mind

A recent article over on TechCrunch on how you need to win the battle for share of mind makes a great point of how any organization that wants to grow over time needs to win mind share if it wants to survive, and thrive, over the long term. Not just start-ups. Just like a start-up has to do more than get people to play with its hot product for more than six months if it wants to be around next year, Supply Management needs to do more than just get people talking about some quick-hit cost savings if it wants to ingrain itself into the core processes of each of the business units it supports.

For Supply Management to truly become the central cog in the organizational wheel, and become the first organization consulted on any project, it has to gain permanent mind share among its stakeholders. Engineering has to think of Supply Management as the organization that can identify new potential sources of material and supply before that product is designed, not just the paper pushes who will execute the buy. Legal has to think of Supply Management as the organization in the best position to judge the potential of an M&A, not just the organization that sends the cheque to the external council. Marketing has to think of Supply Management as the organization that can help it understand the market dynamics of the new geographies it wants to expand into, not just the organization that buys the paper.

So how do we do this? We have to solve real problems and provide real value. This has to go beyond just saving 10% on a contract renewal, because high cost isn’t a problem, it’s a symptom. Either the right supplier wasn’t at the table, or the right logistics strategy wasn’t employed, or the right should cost models weren’t used, or the right contract wasn’t negotiated. If supplier discovery and management, network design and management, and contract negotiation and management were all done right the last time, there’d be no money to save (unless raw material prices dropped, but that would be immediately apparent from the should-cost models that used market indices and a pricing formula to capture index changes could be written into the contract to insure the organization gets to take advantage of lower prices immediately). In all but the rarest of situations, savings are only possible because the issue wasn’t addressed right last time.

The rest of the organization has to see Supply Management as the organization that can help their business unit get it right and prevent unecessary spending in the first place. The organization that will get supplier discovery and management, network design and management, and contract negotiation and management right the first time. The organization that will bring true value to their business unit. If we can do that, not only will we have our permanent seat at the big kids table, but we’ll be the central cog in the organizational wheel. We’ll finally be where we’re supposed to be.

So how do we do that?

We start, as pointed out by Lamar Chesney, CPO of SunTrust, and summarized in this Sourcing Innovation post, by learning what value is to our stakeholders and communicating that message. Then to get to value we align perspectives and work together towards the goal. Next we capture the value in an appropriate agreement that focusses on the required solution, not just tactical t’s and c’s. Finally, we help the stakeholder organization with execution because value doesn’t exist until it is realized, and if it’s not realized, we’ll get blamed and fail to capture our much needed mind share. And when all is said and done, we’ll be the secret agent of business improvement.

Four Good and One Bad Suggestion For Preparing Your Supply Chain for Volatility

A recent article over on ChiefExecutive.net on Volatility: Predictions and Prescriptions presented five suggestions for dealing with the current market volatility that guarantees both minor and massive disruptions will continue to occur on a global scale, impacting your supply chain(s) to various degrees as they occur. Four of them were quite good. One wasn’t. Since it is important for a supply management organization to face the reality of increased volatility and plan for it to mitigate its risk, this post will review the suggestions presented in the article. Disruptions are going to happen. The only unknown is how bad the disruption will be. Since a disruption is always worse for an unprepared organization, it’s important that an organization do everything it can to be prepared.

The organization should start by:

  1. Expecting Disruptions
    They’re going to happen. Some you will predict. Some you won’t. The more flexible the organization is, the more capable it will be in dealing with the disruption. Plus, an organization that expects to be disrupted won’t be shocked by a disruption and won’t have the additional disruption of having to deal with the emotional impact of not being prepared for the initial disruption.
  2. Feeling the Malaise
    An organization that expects disruptions will, at first, feel uneasy and weary knowing that at least some of its best laid plans will come to ruin. But once the organization gets used to the feeling, and begins to savor it, the preparedness will save the organization in its hour of need because the disruption won’t seem so bad.

The the organization should take heed of the following four suggestions:

  1. Simulate Scenarios
    Once the organization expects disruptions, it can “game plan” how to deal with them. It can identify the different kinds of disruptions that can occur and scope out a sequence of responses to each. And although some disruptions can never be anticipated and “game planned”, if similar disruptions have been addressed, the organization will have a starting plan that should be workable with only a few minor tweaks.
  2. Diversify Geographies
    Many disruptions, such as natural disasters and political turmoil, are localized to a region or a country. A supply chain that multi-sources key products and services from different regions and countries should be in better shape to withstand a shock of a product no longer being available from a supplier in a certain region due to a natural disaster or political disturbance.
  3. Diversify Products and Services
    Not only should geographies be diversified, but so should raw materials, products, and services when applicable. Although the former will often be hard to diversify, as certain raw materials will not be substitutable, services are very easy to diversify and should be.
  4. Deleverage Balance Sheets
    While a leveraged supply chain can generate great returns in good markets, it can be downright risky in bad markets. In a volatile market, it is often safer to sacrifice some ROE in return for safer debt/equity ratios (or inventory/equity) over the longer term.

However, the organization should not listen to the fifth and final suggestion, which is downright destructive:

  1. Enable Rapid Downsizing
    Supply Management is getting more knowledge-intensive by the day and we’re in a serious talent crunch. The last thing you do is get rid of good people, especially those that can often generate savings of 10 to 100 times their annual salary on a single buy. While high fixed costs can be dangerous in times of reduced cash flow, it is much better to get rid of assets (and rent them back if you need to) then to get rid of good people.