Monthly Archives: October 2012

Data Good. Brains Better.

Brains aren’t just for Zombies. They’re for people too, although, sometimes, it seems that some people forge this. 😉

But, anyway, I have to applaud the HBR Blog Network for this recent post on “Why Data Will Never Replace Thinking” because it’s not all about big data. There’s a reason that we have been arguing for centuries about whether deduction from first principles or induction from observed reality is the best way to get at truth.

I tend to side with Popper’s synthesis in that the only scientific approach is to formulate hypotheses that are falsifiable. Sure, with big data, you can look at information in real time, and you can make minute adjustments, and you can build a closed-loop system, where you continuously change and adjust but I do not believe that you make no mistakes, because you’re picking up signals all the time because you never get all the signals. And even if you captured every monetary transaction, you still wouldn’t be capturing the drivers behind every transaction, which are fundamentally human in nature, and often emotional, and not captured.

As the article says, the element of hypothesis/prediction remains important, not just to science but to the pursuit of knowledge in general. We humans are quite capable of coming up with stories to explain just about anything after the fact but it’s by trying to come up with our stories beforehand, then testing them, that we can reliably learn the lessons of our experiences -— and our data. No matter how big the data gets, we still need hypothesis, and the more data, the more important the hypothesis gets — otherwise, what is all the data for?

And the quote for Nate Silver is great: data-driven predictions can succeed -— and they can fail. It is when we deny our role in the process that the odds of failure rise. Before we demand more of our data, we need to demand more of ourselves.

Federalist No. 11

In Federalist No. 11, Hamilton returns to the helm in addressing the people of the State of New York in the Independent on the utility of the Union in respect to commercial relations and a navy. Starting with this essay, we start to move away from generic advantages of a republic over a democracy and a Union over a confederacy to a specific set of advantages, of relevance to the people, possessed by a republic Union.

Even in 1787, global trade was critical to economic growth. (In fact, in 1817, Congress did away with all internal taxes and relied solely on tariffs on imported goods to provide sufficient funds for running the government. The first income tax was not enacted until 1862 to support the Civil War. Before this, taxes were limited to a few commodities, starting with sugar in 1764 and stamps in 1765.) In the 1600s and 1700s, European countries captured profits of 200% to 300% by way of long-distance trade with the Americas and the east. In fact, at one point in time, the British East India Company was an imperial power in its own right, with its own military! Thus, commercial relations would be critical to the rise, and acceptance, of America.

Hamilton starts off by noting that there are appearances to authorize a supposition that the adventurous spirit, which distinguishes the commercial character of America, has already excited uneasy sensations in several of the maritime powers of Europe. They seem to be apprehensive of our too great interference in that carrying trade. There is thus reason to believe that some countries may favour the policy of fostering divisions among us, and of depriving us, as far as possible, of an ACTIVE COMMERCE as this would prevent our interference in their
navigation
, [prevent our interference in their] monopolizing the profits of our trade, and clip the wings by which we might soar to a dangerous greatness.

If we continue united, we may counteract a policy so unfriendly to our prosperity in a variety of ways. By prohibitory regulations, extending … throughout the States, we may oblige foreign countries to bid against each other, for the privileges of our markets. In addition, a further resource for influencing the conduct of European nations toward us, in this respect, would arise from the establishment of a federal navy. There can be no doubt that the continuance of the Union … would … create a navy which, if it could not vie with those of the great maritime powers, would at least be of respectable weight. This would create, since just a few ships sent to reinforce either side in a third-party maritime conflict, would be sufficient to decide the fate of a campaign and this creates a situation so favourable would enable us to bargain with great advantage for commercial privileges. Thus, by a steady adherence to the Union we may … become the arbiter of Europe in America. It is arguable that under a vigorous national government, the natural strength and resources of the country, directed to a common interest, would baffle all the combinations of European jealousy to restrain our growth.

In addition, an unrestrained intercourse between the States themselves will advance the trade of each by an interchange of their respective productions … and the veins of commerce in every part will be replenished. As a result, the aggregate balance of the commerce of the United States would bid fair to be much more favourable than that of the thirteen States without union. And, then, the thirteen States, bound together in a strict and indissoluble Union, concurrent in erecting one great American system will be superior to the control of all transatlantic force or influence, and able to dictate the terms of the connection between the old and the new world!

 

Want to discuss? Join The Federalists on LinkedIn. The open group has been created specifically to discuss the philosophical underpinnings of the governance of nations and their ramifications on the national and international economics and global trade.

Supply Chain Predictions are Becoming More Obvious by the Day …

but supply chains are not always predictable. So the question is, when are we going to see a completely non-obvious supply chain prediction that, in fact, is going to be reality in a few short years.

Or have we reached a point where supply chain technologies, methodologies, and development chonologies are completley predictable? Everytime I see a list of predictions these days, they are either obvious, generic, or, in the case of this recent article over on EyeForTransport on “The top 10 … or make that the top 12 thoughts for supply chain in 2012”, an updated list of supply management best-practices if you want to be considered a leader instead of a loser.

Don’t get me wrong — the article linked above is one of the best lists of the top 12 things you should be doing now that I’ve seen in a while, but I want to see someone take a step back, look way forward, predict where supply chain will be, and then come out and give what looks like a prediction out of left-field on what we have to do to get there. Of course, the risk of doing this is that you’re a futurist, and some of your predictions will be wrong (and might get you temporarily labelled as a crackerjack), but if even one is right, and spectacularly right, people will forget the mistakes and pronounce you as a visionary when your longer term prediction comes true.

So, with 2013 just around the seasonal corner, does anyone want to stand up, predict major unexpected changes in the supply chain in the next 5, 15, and 50 years, and roll the bones?

Federalist No. 10

In our last post, we discussed how in Federalist No. 9 Hamilton addressed the subject of the Union as a safeguard against domestic faction and insurrection to the people of the State of New York. In Federalist No. 10, James Madison gives us his first contribution to the series while continuing to address the same subject in the New York Packet.

Madison starts off by noting that among the numerous advantages promised by a well-constructed Union, none deserves to be more accurately developed than its tendency to break and control the violence of faction. This is because a government, without violating the principles on which it is based, will not fail to set a due value on any plan which provides a proper cure for the violence of faction.

Given that the instability, injustice, and confusion introduced into the public councils, have, in truth, been the mortal
diseases under which popular governments have everywhere perished
, it is vital that the subject be properly addressed and that the American constitutions do so and improve on the popular models for government, both ancient and modern.

There are essentially two methods of curing the mischiefs of faction: the one, by removing its causes; the other, by controlling its effects. There are again two methods of removing the causes of faction: the one, by destroying the liberty which is essential to its existence; the other, by giving to every citizen the same opinions, the same passions, and the same interests. But where the first remedy is concerned, it is worse than the disease. But it could not be less folly to abolish liberty, which is essential to political life. And the second expedient is as impracticable as the first would be unwise. Because, as long as the reason of man continues fallible, and he is at liberty to exercise it, different opinions will be formed. As a result, the CAUSES of faction cannot be removed, and that relief is only to be sought in the means of controlling its EFFECTS.

If a faction consists of less than a majority, relief is supplied by the republican principle, which enables the majority to defeat
its sinister views by regular vote
. But when a majority is included in a faction, the form of popular government … enables it to sacrifice to its ruling passion or interest both the public good and the rights of other citizens. This could allow the faction to concert and carry into effect schemes of oppression, which must be avoided.

Fortunately, a true republic varies from a democracy in two respects. First, the delegation of the government, in the latter, to a small number of citizens elected by the rest; secondly, the greater number of citizens, and greater sphere of country, over which the latter may be extended.

In the first case, we can assume that the elected representatives have the wisdom to best discern the true interest of their country and the patriotism and love and justice to see it through. And if that isn’t enough, when you extend the sphere of influence, you
take in a greater variety of parties and interests; you make it less probable that a majority of the whole will have a common
motive to invade the rights of other citizens; or if such a common motive exists, it will be more difficult for all who feel it to
discover their own strength, and to act in unison with each other
. As a result, a rage … will be less apt to pervade the whole body of the Union than a particular member of it; in the same proportion
as such a malady is more likely to taint a particular county or district, than an entire State
.

Want to discuss? Join The Federalists on LinkedIn. The open group has been created specifically to discuss the philosophical underpinnings of the governance of nations and their ramifications on the national and international economics and global trade.

Five Precepts for Greening the Supply Chain

A recent post over on the Kenco Blog on “Best Practices for Greening the Supply Chain” contained five precepts for making your supply chain greener that should be shared far and wide. They are:

  • Realize the Contribution of Efficiency
    Part of green is being lean. Lean minimizes waste. Waste costs money. So when you are efficient, you minimize costs, which, all other things being equal, maximizes profit. As SI has said many times before, green not only makes you sustainable, but it increases the green you have in the bank.
  • Assess the Life Cycle Impact of Products
    When evaluating the sustainability of a product, you have to look beyond the raw materials (and their creation/extraction) and production, evaluate (intended) use, and think about disposal. As SI has noted before, the product should be designed for recycling (and raw material recovery) and at the very least minimize, if not eliminate, waste and landfill requirements.
  • Recognize Green Products & Services
    When presented with multiple product and service alternatives, the ability to recognize those that are naturally sustainable is key to embedding sustainability in your organization.
  • Minimize Resource & Energy Use and Carbon Impact
    Pay careful attention to the amount of resources required, the amount of energy required, and the amount of carbon produced. A truly green process utilizes renewable resources, renewable energy, and is carbon neutral. That may not always be possible, but that is the end goal.
  • Give Back to Society
    While it can be argued that a company can be sustainable without being charitable, the goal of sustainability is to sustain both the company and the society that the company is trying to sell its products and services to. Thus, as the article suggests, a company should at least make some effort to display corporate leadership and engage the community and, preferably, give time and resources to sustainable causes in the community.

Great advice for sustainable companies to live by.