Category Archives: Market Intelligence

The USA is a Third World Country (and by now, Canada is too!#) (Bad Billionaires 1/3)

Why do I say this? Because the “official” US poverty rate is over 11.5% and the official US (long term average) unemployment rate (U3) has been averaging 5.7%, and we both know the official rates (far) undercut the reality since:

  • in big cities and wealthy states, you couldn’t afford rent and food if all you made was $1 above the poverty line; and the US leads all nations with the highest overall child poverty rate of 20.9% (Source: Confronting Poverty)
  • the official unemployment rate (U3) excludes part time workers seeking full time, people who have not been able to secure a job in more than a year, went back to school (even part time) in an effort to level up, etc. and this (U6) rate is usually 50% to 60% higher (putting the long-term average U6 rate at 10.1%)

None of these statistics should exist in a first world country!

According the World Bank, of the 162 countries they track with a poverty line, 18 have a lower percentage of people living in poverty, including pre-war Ukraine, Belarus, Vietname, Kazakhstan, and Algeria. Something is VERY wrong here!

According to Trading Economics, 68 countries have less unemployment than the United States, with Uganda, Liberia, Vietnam, and Mexico included in the countries under 3%! Something is VERY wrong here!

According to UNICEF, there are 34 countries with a lower child poverty rate than the USA. THIRTY FOUR! Something is TOTALLY FUCKED UP here. You are (way) better off having a child in Slovenia, Czechia, Poland, or Croatia than the good Ol’ US of A.

Moreover, if you’re a blue collar worker or a low-tier white collar worker, you’re also screwed since you’ll never be able to pay off your student loans as almost everything you make will go on rent and food. And even if you’re true white collar middle class, good luck buying a house or sending your kids to college.

While all the economists and politicians want to tell you how great things are because the averages keep going up and up, this is all a facade to prevent you from finding out the truth that things have actually getting worse for you since the eighties (when “trickle on”*, which the Republicans like to call “trickle down”, economics were introduced) because the median is not getting better. (In good years, it’s barely holding steady.) The problem with averages is that they include everyone, which includes billionaires that are collectively worth more than 6 Trillion dollars. (If Bezos moved to a small town with under 1,000 people where the average income was 35,000, the average income per person would suddenly be over ONE Million dollars, while the median would stay the same. It’s all lies, damn lies, and statistics.)

The problem is that our buying power has decreased considerably since the 70s (which was the last time things were really good for the average American) as our median family income has not kept up with rising costs (which should not be a surprise as the federal minimum wage in the US has not increased in 15 years). The relative cost of a house has almost doubled, and the cost of sending our children to a community college or trade school has almost tripled.

Here’s a simple table to break it down for you.

Year Median Income Median House Price X times Median Income
1975 13720 39300 < 3X
2020 76600 391900 > 5X

And yet another simple table:

Year Median Income Average Tuition % Median Income Harvard Tuition % Median Income
1975 13720 542 4% 5350 39%
2020 76600 9488 13% 47730 62%

When you break it all down, relatively speaking, the cost of almost everything has increased significantly since the 1970s. The only budget item that has stayed relatively flat (in the 10% to 15% of median household income) is food for a family of 4, but that’s only looking at the numbers. Today, most Americans can only afford cheap (ultra) processed foods, and even Fox News is now warning us about those! (If you were to compare spending on healthy food baskets, the buying power does not remain constant.)

In other words a significant number of you are poor (and much worse off than the majority of OECD Countries [Confronting Poverty]), unemployed, or both, and the way things are, this number that has been rising for decades is going to keep rising unbounded unless something is done. And until that something is done and these numbers start decreasing and level off at acceptable levels (5% max for poverty and 3% max for U6 unemployment), as far as I’m concerned, the US (and Canada, which switched from following the UK’s lead to America’s lead a few decades ago), is a third world country!

So what can you do about it? Some would say ban billionaires (because no one needs that much money and it should be shared more equitably) while others would say fix government (and ban SuperPACS and lobby groups that have too much influence over governments and divert them from your welfare to theirs) and others still fix economics (and what it actually measures), but neither is a solution on its own. It’s not about fixing the wealth imbalance (it’s always been there, it always will be), or ending lobbying (although we probably should end SuperPACs and limit funding levels from any individual or corporation), or changing the definition of economics (because, thanks to lies, damn lies, and statistics, there will always be ways to corrupt the measures and mislead the public), but about increasing the prosperity of the average blue collar and white collar worker, getting them back to 1970 levels, and putting them back on the path to increase prosperity (compared to the majority of the world and making the USA a true first class country again).

How? That’s going to be hard, especially since you’re one of the last “democracies” (well, not really, you’re a republic) still on a two-party system (which is easily corrupted and has been for decades and that’s why you’re not a first world country anymore), but if a party would come along and focus on the right things, it wouldn’t be too hard to right the course … especially since productivity of the average worker has increased almost fourfold since the 1970s due to American ingenuity and grit.

But first, let’s babble about those Billionaires and why they simultaneously are and aren’t the problem. Stay tuned.

 

* Republicans have been telling us that “trickle-down” economics are good for us, when history has shown time and time again that they are not. In reality, those Billionaire tax cuts are “trickle on” economics, because that’s what the Republicans and their Billionaire buddies are doing to you, and if you don’t understand what that means, then type “golden shower” porn site into Google and it should bring up links to at least 30 sites that should have very graphic visual descriptions that demonstrate precisely what “trickle on” economics really is! (I asked Google how many golden shower porn sites and it said top 30, so I am assuming it will deliver at least 30 links to you.)

# Statistics Canada is always years behind compared to other countries, with no good data beyond 2021, but the projection for Canada this year was a 10.1% poverty rate!

You Admit You Might Be a Dumb Company. How do you avoid the fork in the road that leads to the Graveyard? Part 2

Good for you! As we noted in part 1, admitting you might be a dumb company is the most important thing to do on the yellow brick road to enlightenment.

So what do you do next? In short you continue to:

  1. admit to every mistake you are making and do something about it,
  2. look for opportunities to improve that are logical next steps, and
  3. never, ever forget the timeless basics.

Today, we’ll continue with describing what you do when you identify, and admit to, one of the last five mistakes we chronicled in our re-introduction to our “dumb company” series and want to do something better.

6) No More Training

Start picking out your corporate coffin and writing your corporate obituary, because the minute you stop learning and stop improving is the first minute on your corporate deathbed. So:

  • time your process throughput across corporate processes (and compare to industry averages)
  • examine your SaaS utilization (on the SaaS apps you keep after you Get SaaSy)
  • train where either can be noticeably improved

7) Tighten The Belt One Notch Per Month

You can trim the fat, but you have to stop trimming when the fat is gone.

If revenue is not increasing, it means that either your marketing or sales is not effective or your product is not appropriate. In both cases, you will have to invest further. In the first, to get some consulting from an expert low-cost guerrilla marketer as well as the educational assets you will need, and then some training on how to improve the effectiveness of your sales cycle. In the latter, expert advice on where to focus the development roadmap to make it more appropriate, and appealing, to your target market.

If there’s not enough cash, then you will have to wrangle more investment (even if the terms aren’t what you hoped) or, if you have revenue, take a loan (and keep your equity).

8) From 60 to 0 in Marketing

As already indicated, just because you wasted the entire $M marketing budget on overpriced events, email marketing, “analyst firms” and their maps, soundbite marketing, and a CMO who only cares about his jet-setting media-centric lifestyle, that doesn’t mean you can cut it to 0. If you do so, crawl in the corporate coffin as it’s almost time to nail the lid.

You need constant visibility as you have to be “the name they know” when your target customer finally gets budget and can invite you to an RFP or a contract negotiation. At any given time, half of your customers are going to be six months away from a potential budget. One fourth, nine months, and only one fourth will be close to a budget season, where they may not get budget, and then it’s fifteen months before they can talk to you.

Constant visibility doesn’t mean a booth at a 100K event every month and the media that comes from it, it means monthly educational content that not only keeps your name visible, but keeps you front and centre as they look for that content to consume, to learn from, and hopefully build their business case to buy your product.

9) Real Innovation is Too Risky

First of all, a lot of customer problems can be solved with evolutionary renovations to existing tech, and “innovation” is thus not as risky as you think.

Secondly, sometimes real innovation is needed to solve a problem, or at least do so affordably. While it’s risky (maybe you won’t solve it / get it right), if solving that problem is key to your corporate growth, and possibly your corporate survival, it’s definitely riskier not to pursue innovation. So do it, but carefully and in a controlled manner — don’t bet the bank on anything without a [very] high probability of success. Innovation should NOT be costly (beyond the innovator’s salary) in software-based tech. It’s just research, trial, and error. More than that, and you’re not doing it right.

X) Raise the DrawBridge!

You don’t know everything. And that’s okay. No one does.

But always remember: what you don’t know can kill you. Bring in an expert ASAP to do an analysis of your critical activities, identify weaknesses, and then, if necessary bring in an expert to address them. SI has been telling you for years consultants are cheap as the value a fair priced expert consultant will bring you is multiples of what that person will charge.

Next up: Avoiding the Graveyard if you are a Dead Company Walking! (Part 1 of 8)

You Admit You Might Be a Dumb Company. How do you avoid the fork in the road that leads to the Graveyard? Part 1

Good for you! Admitting you might be a dumb company is the most important thing to do on the yellow brick road to enlightenment.

So what do you do next? In short you:

  1. start by admitting to every mistake you are making and do something about it,
  2. look for opportunities to improve that are logical next steps, and
  3. never, ever forget the timeless basics.

Today, we’ll start with describing what you do when you identify, and admit to, one of the first five mistakes we chronicled in our re-introduction to our “dumb company” series and want to do something better. Next week, we’ll tackle the remainder of the mistakes before we move on to our eight-part series (each of which is worth much more than a piece of eight) on avoiding the graveyard if you are a dead company walking. After that, we’ll provide even more advice if you just want to be a smart company in two two-part series! In other words, SI has a lot of great helpful content lined up for you if you are a vendor that wants to successfully sail the choppy seas ahead (and not end up as another wreck on the ocean floor).

1) No More Perks

Unless you’re going crazy on perks, just leave them alone.

If a few are a bit crazy, reign them in to reasonable levels.

If they still eat up too much of your budget, find something else to cut. Start with the deadweight (and begin your search in the [micro] management suite). A useless or salary or two will go a long way to maintaining morale (and if you cut deadweight, morale will even lift).

2) No More Tech/SaaS

First, do a process time audit and figure out where your people are spending too much time on tasks that can be semi-automated to a significant extent.

Then, identify the appropriate solution to the problem and a set of potential SaaS tools to fill that solution affordably.

Then, Get SaaSy and do a SaaS audit, find the 33%+ overspend, cut it, and use that savings to get the SaaS your organization needs to be more productive and receive a return of at least $3 for every $1 spend on SaaS.

Finally, if your cloud costs are significant, Be Cloud Aware and do a cloud audit, tracking down what applications, or parts of your application, are chewing up the most CPU time. Then reign that in. Ongoing cloud costs add up faster than you realize!

3) NPD Can Wait (Sell What We Have)

Maybe heaven can wait, but hell waits for no man, and neither do the competition you don’t yet know about. No matter how good, or how bad, times are, your product must ALWAYS be improving. The minute you stop, the sales will stop as the customers will peg you as a dead company walking if you are not actively developing your product.

Segment all features into must, should and nice to have from a target customer perspective and make sure you are constantly working on the “must have” features, getting a decent number of the “should have” features that aren’t too time consuming to add into the plan, and prioritize any “nice to haves” that can swing a deal in your favour. If you have to slow down a bit because you can’t expand the team, that’s fine, just as long as you don’t stop.

Remember to keep dependencies in mind and structure development so that dependencies are always done first, to minimize release cycles.

4) No More Travel

Before you approve travel,

  1. first do an audit of all travel reasons the company has seen. Then,
  2. identify the direct and indirect ROI on past travel. Finally,
    • determine where in a marketing cycle travel actually results in actual, qualified leads
    • determine where in a sales cycle travel actually results in a selection or sale
    • determine which conferences/workshops/training events helped product management or developers

Then deny all travel that does not fall into one of those buckets.

Next, for travel that does, look at the cost vs. the projected return and how it compares to the most successful travel of the past. If a conference only results in 10 real leads, and it will cost 100K, but there’s another conference likely to result in 5 real leads that will only cost 25K, deny the first request and approve the second.

If $$$’s are tight, then restrict all travel to

  • small, focussed, cost-effective events that will generate actual leads or customer insights
  • on-sites likely to close the deal
  • low cost workshops where your product managers / developers will definitely improve their skills

5) Cut 10% Across the Board

Do a full budget review (keeping the dumb mistakes in mind) and cut the unnecessary expenses. They are MUCH higher than you think (because, when times are good, or you raise too much money, you don’t watch the small stuff and your unnecessary tail spend is just as bad as your clients).

Then, do a performance analysis (and blind peer review) of the teams across the department, especially the management teams, and cut the real deadweight.

Chances are, done right, there’s more than 10% that can be safely cut with no impact (whereas 10% across the board will damage morale to the point that the best talent might leave at a time they are the most critical).

Be sure to keep reading SI as Part 2 posts next week!

Zombie Companies Exist Too!

Last week the one and only Dr. Tony Bridger, one of the world’s leading spend gurus, said that the correct term for “walking dead companies” is Zombie companies, and I had to correct him.

Historically, a person was walking dead when they had received a mortal wound, infection, poison, or radiation dose and it was just a matter of time before they died. But they weren’t dead yet, and there was always a chance (albeit not a good one) they could survive if they got medical treatment fast enough to stem the bleeding and repair enough of the damage, fight the infection with a miracle drug, get injected with the anti-venom, or get quickly decontaminated and receive enough red blood cell transfusions to have a fighting chance (although, admittedly, not a very good one).

Similarly, a walking dead company is a company that is on the path to insolvency (or acquisition on someone else’s terms if it’s lucky) because of the situation it is in, which is usually because of critical mistakes that were made in the past and still being made today. If such a company suddenly stopped making all identifiable mistakes, found a way to stem the bleeding (of cash), and mitigate some of those past mistakes, there’s still a chance it could survive. It might not be the company it wanted to be, but if it made it to break even, maybe it could find a new direction and a new chance to be great down the road.

In comparison, a zombie company is one that is already dead, and has been dead for years, but refuses to die, usually because of the stubbornness of one or two founders/leaders who believe if they make it just one more year, even though they refuse to do anything different from what they have been doing for years, the company will magically take off. They maintain a heretical, fervent belief that it just needs “more time”, just like the Gen-AI zealots believe it just needs “more cores”, and the American voters think they have a real choice (when, in a two party system, they don’t … or at least won’t until the Super PACs, which give money to both parties to ensure that whomever wins will support their core agenda, are made illegal and eliminated).

You can tell these companies because, in our space,

  • they have been around more than five years, and usually more than seven (before COVID and since the second last M&A frenzy in the late teens when money flowed freely)
  • they have less than 10 (FT) employees if they are primarily a point/module-based solution, and less than 20 (FT) employees
  • their customer count hasn’t increased significantly (i.e. has not increased by more than 10% to 20%) in at least 3 years, i.e. if they’ve managed to sign new customers, they’ve usually lost almost as many
  • they don’t do any marketing whatsoever beyond email campaigns and more often than not the copyright on their website is a year (or more) out of date
  • none of the major analyst firms or analysts have given them much attention in years

And, as any consultant, analyst, or partner who they attempted to engage or who tried to help them can tell you, the situation the company is in is unrecoverable or a non-starter.

(So while the doctor will be giving you

  • a two-part series on what you can do to avoid the graveyard if you admit to some of the dumb company mistakes and
  • an eight-part series on what you can do to avoid the graveyard if you are willing to admit you are making some of the dead company walking mistakes

he will not be doing any follow ups to this article.)

Why are they zombie companies? There are a lot of reasons the doctor can point to, and he’ll include a few examples in this article, but it all boils down to this:

  1. most of these companies are owned by one to three founders/partners who control the company and
  2. the refuse to admit that they need help, or if they admit they need help, they refuse to either do what is necessary, and often won’t even admit they need to do something different to get help

And since I know THE REVELATOR loves details, some examples include, but are definitely not limited to:

  • their messaging will be awful and their marketing strategy non-existent, and even if multiple people outright tell them that, including analysts and (potential) partners who want to help them, the founder/partner will either insist it’s just fine or that they need to keep it in house
  • they couldn’t sell a space heater to a freezing American stuck in Alaska, but won’t hire a full time sales person on salary because “a great salesperson should work only on commission and want to sell our product because it’s so great”, even though a sales person would need to sell a deal a month to make a decent salary on the commission on a 50K modular sale, and since it takes about a year to build a solid pipeline, that sales person is apparently supposed to starve for the first year (with zero stake in the company) … because of future potential
  • they admit they need help tweaking the product to be more appealing to a wider audience, but won’t pay for consulting because the budget is too tight — unless the consultant works on “referrals” … but that’s presales, not product, and not what the consultant they need is going to be any good at, so they don’t get any help … ever!
  • etc.

the doctor could go on, but he won’t, because there’s no point. At the end of the day, these zombie companies desperately need help, and even if they admit it in some capacity, they won’t get it because they don’t want “IP” to leave their “4 walls” (even though they have very little they need to protect as the core of most solutions that implement a core function is about 80% the same), or, usually don’t want to pay for it (because that would either require investment, a loan, and/or ownership dilution … and sales, which they are not getting and haven’t gotten in years, should pay for everything).

The founders/partners are the problem, they can’t be removed, and they’ll stubbornly keep sailing on the edge of the massive whirlpool that’s sure to swallow their ship to the bottom of the sea until they lose that one key customer (that accounts for a significant part of their revenues or referrals to replace the customers they keep losing) or one of the partners becomes unable to continue, at which time the helm will be unmanned and the whirlpool will win. It’s unfortunate for all involved, and it is even more unfortunate that, since they are private, you can’t do hostile takeovers of the ones with good tech that will soon be lost to time.

So that’s it. Zombie companies exist and they can’t be helped and you want to steer further from them then dead companies walking. At least in the case of a dead company walking, if that company admits it and charts a turn around course, it could end up being an okay bet, especially if they can reach profitability or are likely to get acquired intact by a new investor. But the only future for a zombie company, unable to acquire the brains it needs to survive, is to eventually shrivel up and fall apart and return to the dirt from which it came.

Don’t Fall for the Buzzwords!

In fact, as per our 10 words or phrases to ban from an RFP response last year (Part I and Part II), you should ban all buzzwords from not only your RFPs but from your communications with potential vendors. They should be counted as strikes against the vendor and the baseball rule applied (3 strikes and you’re out).

Even though you might be attracted to “social”, “green”, “(Gen-)AI” (which you shouldn’t be, since it’s been proven that all the emergent property claims are false), “autonomous”, “intake-to-“, “discovery”, “multiplier”, and “insights”, etc., you need to remember that the vendors know this and are using as many of these terms as possible to lure you to them and convince you they have the best solution, even if all they have are the best buzzwords.

After all, they know that you are under pressure by your consumers, colleagues, and CEO to be “social”, “green”, and “autonomous” and that, to do that, you need “insights” and “discovery” and that you are all getting swept up in the “intake-to” and “(Gen-)AI” hype-cycles and that you believe it will get you “multipliers” and “delightful” experiences.

So they are preying on your pressures, your desires, and your fears of missing the hype-cycle and being left-behind, even though these “hype” cycles are often literal — all “hype”, no “substance”. Social value is a buzzword, nothing more. Social value is not in applications, it is in awards and actions. The same with “green”. At the end of the day, all SaaS platforms are equally green (unless they use Gen-AI, because then they use ten time the computing resources to do a simple task), they all minimize the need for on-site hardware, but they all eat up cloud compute cycles. The green comes in the decisions you make with them.

Automation is important, but “autonomous” is only useful for tactical e-paper pushing, not for strategic decision making — good computational algorithms can compute odds (and make recommendations) based on the data presented, but it cannot make decisions, and the odds are only as good as the data. “Insights” are only achieved on good data … and if you don’t have that “good” data, you can be damn sure the vendor doesn’t. “Discovery” is always limited to data at your disposal or the vendor’s disposal. If you don’t have the supplier in your database and the vendor doesn’t have the supplier in its community database, there’s no way it’s going to be “discovered”. Also, “intake-to-procure” is useless if you don’t have the solution in place to actually “procure”. As we pointed out in our piece on marketplace madness, intake-to-orchestrate on its own is useless, and a real, modern procurement solution actually has “intake” built in. (So if yours doesn’t, maybe upgrade it to a better solution instead of paying six-figures a year for a view into your data that doesn’t actually add any value.)

Which brings us to the (Gen)-AI hype-cycle. It’s all hype, no substance. There are no valid uses for Gen-AI and even less uses than none in Procurement and it’s all a fallacy considering that even in a decade it won’t even have a 50/50 chance of being truly dependable at the expected rate of improvement. (And if a 200M investment into a new model culminated in the great insight that we should eat one rock a day, maybe it’s time to bury this failed offshoot of AI now before more Billions are wasted. After all, if those Billions were invested in the public school system, that would more than double the current national budget — think of how much better educated your children would be with that increase in funding. Despite the bullcr@p, the future lies in Human Intelligence (HI!), which needs to be nurtured, not abandoned.)

In other words, don’t get led astray by the buzzwords. Value comes from real products that solve real problems whose solutions provide real value to your organization. If the vendor can’t explain that in plain English, then you can be fairly certain the vendor doesn’t have anything truly valuable and you should move on.