Category Archives: Risk Management

You Need to Get a Handle on Your Global Trade Risks – FAST!

Because, if you don’t, in three months, one in every five shipments you make is going to result in a large fine! By the end of May, the United States Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is expected to issue a proposed rule that would make various changes to increase the accuracy and reliability of the advance information submitted under the Importer Security Filing (ISF or 10+2). No big deal, right? Wrong! It is further expected that the final ISF rule will follow later this year and that the CBP will, upon release of the new rule, begin to enforce (the full extent of) the penalties associated with the ISF.

This is a major risk for most organizations as the most recent statistic that is publicly available where 10+2 compliance is concerned is a compliance rate of 80%. In other words, 20% of shipments are not compliant! It’s hard to say why. It could be because, up until now, the CBP has not issued much (if anything) in the way of penalties for violations and failures, and many importers, (customers) brokers, and forwarders are taking advantage of the situation and not doing anything to improve their processes and procedures when they (regularly) make late and inaccurate filings. And if this is the case, this is a dangerous game — for you!

We have to remember that the CBP has the right to enforce a minimum fine of $5,000 for EACH 10+2 violation. If you do a lot of importing, this will add up fast if you are in violation with every fifth shipment. Even if you only did 10 inbound shipments a month, you could expect to lose at least 120K a year to fines! And that’s (significantly) more* than what an average mid-size organization can expect to pay for an annual license to a basic SaaS e-Trade Document management system these days. So they should get one, and begin to get a grip on their global trade risks, fast, before they burn money needlessly.

* A good (end-to-end) global trade management system will still run you six figures, but it goes way beyond e-Document management and provides multiple ROI in terms of process improvement, tactical man-hour reduction, global supply chain visibility, compliance monitoring, etc. (But if you’re small, or just getting started, you can start with just the e-Document management and ease your way into a bigger system.)

Getting a Grip on Multi-Tier Supply Chain Risk – A Resilinc Commentary


Today’s commentary guest post is from Jon Bovit, Chief Marketing Officer of Resilinc, a provider of supply chain resiliency solutions for industries including high-tech, medical devices, and automotive manufacturers. SI recently covered Resilinc in detail in Do You Know What’s At Risk? Resilinc Does! and Will Resilinc Resonate with Your Supply Chain.

Today’s supply chains are complex, global, and highly dependent on
sub-tier suppliers. Long term sustained success of companies is hugely dependent on the resiliency of their suppliers. Despite this, most supply chain leaders are unable to readily access critical supplier information necessary in order to manage business effectively. Supply chain leaders need a solution that maps the global supply chain across multiple tiers, identifies critical supply chain dependencies, exposes critical vulnerabilities and single points of failure, manages risk mitigation across the organization, and optimizes resiliency practices throughout the organization.

Despite popular opinion to the contrary, the harsh reality is that measuring supply chain risk at the supplier, or even the location, level is inadequate for today’s global and complex supply chains. In order to properly managing supply chain risk, a company must start by mapping its global supply chain down to the individual products, parts, sites, and revenue across each of the multiple tiers. Once the multi-tier supply chain is mapped down to the product and part level, with the proper methodology, the company can calculate risk scores based on (multiple measures of) financial risk, location (economic and geopolitical) risk, and recovery risk (recovery time and BCP). By evaluating supply chain elements based on inherent financial, location and recovery risks (which align well with the risks identified in the recent World Economic Forum Global Risks report), supply chain practitioners can choose the most effective mitigation
strategies.

As an example, by utilizing the above methodology, the Resilinc platform is able to quickly identify high risk, high revenue, single sourced parts for a high-revenue producing business unit. The high risk may come from long recovery times from a specific supplier manufacturing site in Malaysia or Japan. The customer can then come up with specific risk mitigations strategies for those specific high risk, high revenue single sourced parts before a disruption occurs, which could save the company millions in losses and unmeasurable damage to its brand. If risk was measured at the supplier level, these details would have been missed completely.

Customers should not only focus on assessing and mapping risks based on their supplier global footprint and site locations, but also should capture sub-contractor and sub-tier supplier dependencies, site activities, part origin, alternate sites, recovery times, emergency
contacts, and business continuity planning (BCP) information. By focusing on identifying critical vulnerabilities and the highest risk exposures using quantitative scores and impact analysis at the product, part, and site level, leaders can direct limited budget and resources into the right areas for optimal protection against future supply chain disruptions.

Thanks, Jon!

What is Necessary to Get a Grip on Risk before You Select a Supplier for Outsourcing?

Outsourcing ain’t going away. The best we can hope for is near-sourcing, but that will depend on the ability to find the needed expertise and scale at competitive rates (at least until oil and transport across large distances becomes so expensive that labour rates don’t matter). So we need a way to select a supplier that won’t increase risk to ridiculous levels and almost guarantee that, at some point, our supply chain will come to a grinding halt when the supplier goes bankrupt, gets cutoff from its supplier, or gets cut off from us.

One way is to get an assessment of risk for the supplier, the city the supplier is located in, and the country the city is located in, build a composite picture, and determine if there is any serious risk of supplier failure, inbound supply chain failure or inaccessibility, or outbound supply chain failure or inaccessibility. But where do we get that risk assessment? And how do we know it’s the right one for us?

Where is external to the organization. We go to an organization like D&B, Resilinc, or Neo Group which has been collecting data on the supplier, city, and country and get their report. But how do we know we’re getting the right report? This is the toughie.

First of all, are they using the right risk model? If you refer back to the World Economic Forum’s annual Global Risks report, you see that, at the very least, you have to consider societal, environmental, geopolitical, economic, and technological factors at the region level, but since you will be conducting business with a supplier at a physical location, business, legal/regulatory, infrastructure, and local quality of life will also play a role. When you start talking about suppliers, you need to look at their financial stability, associations (clients/partners), governance, workforce, and (service) innovation (leadership) capabilities.

But how do you define each of these in a way that can be measured in a standard way? And will such definitions incorporate all that is relevant to your organization? For example, when we’re talking economic we’re talking inflation, currency, fiscal deficit, GDP growth, stock market performance, reserves, etc. However, when we’re talking supplier service capability, we’re talking workforce education level, tools, language proficiency, incentives, etc.

It’s a very tough question. And often what matters is category specific. I’ve reached out to a couple of the big providers of Risk Monitoring solutions. Let’s see if any take me up and provide their viewpoint.

I Hope You’re Not Paying a Wealth Investment Advisor!

Because if you are, the only person getting wealthy out of the deal is the investment advisor on your money! Especially when your LOLCat can do a better job, and will work for temptations and catnip!

As per this recent article in the The Observer, a ginger tabby named Orlando beat a team of professionals and a group of students in a year-long stock-picking experiment summarized in a recent article on how Orlando is the cat’s whiskers of stock picking. The cat, who selected stocks by throwing his favourite toy mouse on a grid of numbers allocated to different companies, beat Justin Urquhart Stewart of Seven Investment Management, Paul Kavanagh of Killick & Co, and Andy Brough of Schroders who had decdes of investment knowledge.

So if you really want to beat the market, replace your stock analysts with cats who are just as accurate (and don’t put much faith into predictive analytics no matter how much big data you have).