Category Archives: Risk Management

Supply Chain Disaster Management

Earlier this year, EBN Online ran a good article on “Managing the Variables in a Supply Chain Disaster” that outlined the basic steps a global company can use to get started on planning for a disaster.

It’s obvious, with all of the recent natural disasters, political disasters, and economic disasters, that a supply chain natural disaster is coming your way. It’s just a question of what, when, and how it is going to impact your supply chain. That’s why you need to plan. So where do you start?

According to the author, start by getting all of the departments together — IT, operations, sales, warehousing, administration, and management — to help map out the entire upstream and downstream supply network and determine where the different risk points are and what risks are most likely to materialize. And, as Jim Lawton points out in this Industry Week article on “Country Risk — What You’re Overlooking”, you have to not only focus on your suppliers and the countries they are located in (whch contribute to the political, economic, and commercial risks that are faced by your organization), but your suppliers’ suppliers and the countries they are located in.

Then run a variety of “what if” scenarios to see how the company could recover if supply is interrupted, a warehouse goes up in smoke, a supplier becomes unavailable, freight rates or tarrifs rise substantially, preferred raw materials or components get banned for regulatory reasons, or something else possible, but not predictable, happens. If there is no way to recover, something has to be done now before it’s too late for your supply chain, and maybe your entire organization. For example, if all of the company’s supply for a certain component is from South Korea, and supply from South Korea gets cut off, there would be no recovery. The company either has to find a secondary source of supply from another country, or a way to use a slightly different component to accomplish the same task.

If a moderate increase in freight rates or tarrifs would prevent the company from being able to source a raw material at a price that would allow the company to turn a profit on the finished product, then the company has to identify alternate, cheaper, transportation methods, a way to further save on raw material costs, or a way to increase the value, and thus the selling price, on the finished product. If a raw material gets banned from usage in the product the organization plans on importing into Europe, then the organization has to have a way to produce the component using a different raw material, which could require a different design or manufacturing method, which could add cost as well.

The short of the story is that disaster planning is more than just identifying the upstream supply network and more than just identifying what could go wrong, but also identifying how a recovery could be initiated if necessary.

Are You Ready For Name-And-Shame Legislation?

On January 1, 2012, the California Transparency in Supply Chains Act (SB 657) want into effect. it’s an example of “name and shame” legislation, which requires companies to report on specific actions taken to eradicate slavery and human tracking in their supply chain. The idea is that if slavery and human trafficking is in your supply chain, you’ll have to tell the world and the resulting consumer and shareholder pressure will force you to achieve the social goals of doing whatever it takes to eliminate human trafficking and slavery.

If your company

  • files California taxes as a retailer or manufacturer,
  • does business in California as defined in the California Revenue and Taxation Code, and
  • earns more than 100 Million in worldwide gross receipts

then your company must report on five specific points under this act. Summarized by the VACIT acronym, the company must report whether it:

  • Verifies
    and engages in third party verification (that identifies the risk of slavery and human trafficking)
  • Audits
    and engages in independent, unannounced, auditing to check on adherence to company standards
  • Certifies
    and requires its direct suppliers to certify that the materials incorporated into its products comply with local laws
  • Maintains Accountability
    and holds its employees and contractors accountable to company standards and
  • Trains
    employees directly responsible for risk mitigation in its supply chain.

This is not the first example of such legislation. For example, in July 2008 the New South Wales Food Authority passed laws amending existing provisions which allowed the authority to publish details of successful food business prosecutions on its website. And it won’t be the last. At the Federal Level, H.R. 2759 (Business Transparency on Trafficking and Slavery Act) was introduced last August and, if passed, would require publicly-traded companies to disclose on their annual reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission any measures that are being taken to identify and address conditions of forced labour, slavery and human trafficking within the company’s supply chains.

The net effect is that there are not only legal and business issues heading your way as this legislation crops up in other states, and eventually, in other countries, but reputational concerns that will materialize as well. For example, as pointed out in this recent article in Retailing Today on how Name and Shame is the New Supply Chain Game, not only must the company disclose how it is complying with the provisions of the Act on the company’s website, but it must also consider how this will affect its stakeholders, customers, investors, and their view of the company. A less than robust (policy) disclosure can cast the company in a bad light and do considerable damage to the supply chain organization. From a Risk Management standpoint, your organization needs to be ready. Are you?

Do You Have a Chain of Custody in Your Global Logistics Operations?

If you have a significant global logistics operation, chances are that, by now, you have sophisticated tracking capabilities and can tell at any given time at least where your cargo was at one point during the last 24 hours. And this is good. But if you want to go beyond minimum import/export requirements that have emerged, and are continuing to emerge, in the US and EU, then you need more than continuous tracking and monitoring — you need chain of custody.

Chances are that, right now, you’re thinking this is nuts because “chain of custody”, thanks to CSI-like forensic cop dramas, is associated in your mind as a “police” or “forensics” requirement when a crime is being investigated and has nothing to do with your supply chain, but it’s a wrong association. And when one remembers that many of these laws were put in place to prevent terrorism and illegal goods (such as drugs), which regulators are expecting to occur in, or through, import/export operations, it starts to make sense. And it makes even more sense when one realizes that it’s (becoming) a requirement for C-TPAT, which is crucial for efficient import/export operations given the slowdowns that have resulted by all of the additional paperwork and inspections that have been added to the import/export process over the last decade.

So what is a chain of custody? It is a process that asserts:

  • the cargo is what it purports to be and in the quantity stated,
  • the cargo was in the continuous possession or control by the carrier who took charge of the cargo from the time it was loaded in the container at origin until the time it is delivered at final destination, and
  • there is evidence of the identify of each person or entity who had access to it during its movement and that the cargo remained in the same condition from the moment it was sealed in the container for transfer to the carrier who controlled possession until the moment that carrier released the cargo into the receipted custody of another.

This, in turn requires that the cargo is secured from the time it is packed, verified, and sealed at origin, as confirmed by an authorized agent, until the time it arrives at its final destination and is verified to have been secured the entire way. In addition, all information relating to the cargo, its container, its movement, the person(s) verifying and sealing the cargo, and the persons transporting it must be maintained securely in the container security control system.

This may require more work, and more certifications, but there are benefits to the shipper, consignee, carrier, and CBP, as discussed in this great article on Tracking and Chain of Custody: The Difference over on Maritime Executive Magazine. Select Benefits include the following

  • for the shipper
    • World-wide tracking and location of container for security and asset management
    • Lower insurance costs
    • Expedited entry of cargo by CBP and faster through-port time
  • for the consignee
    • Enhanced knowledge of shipper and carrier performance
    • Third-party verification of all supply chain data elements and reports
    • Increased or enhanced knowledge needed for 10+2 Program Importer Security Filings
  • for the carrier
    • Protection against claims by shippers that unauthorized contents were the results of carrier action
    • Automatic transmission to CBP of container data
    • Compliance with and protection within the new Rotterdam Rules impacting vessel carriers
  • for CBP
    • Knowledge of which containers need no inspection improving man-power efficiency
    • Elimination of third-party reporting of trade data
    • Evidentiary data for potential legal action

Peter Smith Nails Why the doctor Does Not Do Predictions

Traditionally, the New Year is a time to think about how we can become better people … and of course, the chance for writers and analysts to sit at their keyboards with a cold beer and make a list of wild guesses, predictions and ill-informed comments, desperately pretending we have some particular insight into the world!
Peter Smith, Ten New Year Resolutions for 2012, BravoSolution.com

the doctor has insight into what you need to do today, but has no more insight into what the Supply Management world of tomorrow will look like for your company beyond what anyone else has. He can predict what is likely, but all it takes is one earthquake, political uprising, or stock market crash to turn everything on its end. Fortuntately, Peter’s paper is filled with advice for today and not tomorrow.

In particular, the doctor likes resolutions:

2. I will make sure we do proper risk assessment on our key supply chains – and that doesn’t just mean our “top ten suppliers”.
How exactly are you keeping track of your key suppliers’ financial situation, their accreditations or quality record? What is your mitigation strategy in case of supplier failure or natural disaster, for each of your critical raw materials / sub-components? Do you have any sense of which firms at second or third tier level in your supply chains could actually cause your organization severe problems? What about corporate social responsibility issues? the doctor would bet that you are not keeping track of key suppliers’ financials, not keeping an eye on the quality metrics, don’t know which 2nd or 3rd tier suppliers could bring your supply chain to a grinding halt, or know about the poor working conditions at the factory in Da Nang.

5. I will put the supplier closer to the heart of our process and technology strategy
As Peter says, if the supplier screws up, you have failed in the eyes of the IT / Marketing / Production VP. So look at your supplier information, risk, development, relationship management strategy — closely. If you don’t help your supplier to succeed, you ultimately won’t succeed.

7. I will move to the next level of Spend Analytics sophistication.
As per SI’s recent white-paper on Spend Visibility: An Implementation Guide, almost any attempt by an organization to analyze spending patterns is likely to be fruitful, especially if there hasn’t been a serious prior attempt. It is easy to find thousands of breathless testimonials about a particular product or method — independent of the quality of the product or method — because almost any product or method will find savings if a spend visibility initiative has never been launched before. “In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is king“. But, what is not so obvious is that this initial burst of savings is short-lived; and that many of the “quick saves” that result are unsustainable. The key question is what to do next; in other words, how to implement a true strategic spend visibility initiative that will return value and keep returning value over time. There are too many spend visibility products that are lying unused or on the shelf, after the first burst of excitement has passed; and too many organizations who are tired of hearing a spend visibility message that has no further relevance to them. That’s why you have to take spend analytics to the next level and why you should download the FREE, no registraiton required, Spend Visibility: An Implementation Guide today (if you haven’t already).

Risk Mitigation 2012: Economic

In our last post, we covered some potential mitigations for each of the top three geopolitical risks that we identified in our Risk 2011 series. In this post, we are going to cover some potential mitigations for each of the top three economic risks as we continue our series of posts inspired by the World Economic Forum‘s recently released 6th annual Global Risks report, 2011 edition.

03: Asset Price Collapse

Most of an organization’s capital is tied up in two things — its people and its assets. This includes its buildings, its inventory, and the raw materials that will be used to create future inventory. If all of a sudden the value of each of these assets drops 50% over night, the organization loses 50% of the value of these assets — and will likely sustain additional losses when it has to sell its inventory at a deep discount.

While asset price collapses can’t be prevented if a market is flooded, or a market is cornered, or asset prices are artificially inflated by collusion and then drop rapidly when the inflation cannot be maintained, it is often the case that impending asset price collapse can be predicted in advance. Asset prices rise and fall, and they always fall if they get to high. While the exact time, and degree, of collapse cannot always be predicted accurately, it’s often possible to predict an approximate time of collapse, and an approximate degree. If a price collapse is coming, the organization can reduce buys to minimal levels, sell off unnecessary assets in a controlled manner, or, if possible, hold onto them until such time as asset prices return to reasonable levels.

02: Extreme Energy Price Volatility

Today’s organizations are ultimately dependent upon three things – people, raw materials, and the energy required to transform the raw materials into the product the organization will sell. If oil doubles in price, that could make the difference between being able to produce the goods in China and import them into the US for sale at a profit and having to import them into the US for sale at a loss (or risk losing the entire inventory).

Energy price volatility is not going to go away. An organization has two options, try to predict the volatility and ride it out as best as it can, or try to restructure its operations such that it is not (as) dependent on volatile energy sources. There are two ways it can achieve this goal. First of all, it can focus on streamlining its operations to make them as lean as possible. Reducing the energy required is the first step. Secondly, it can invest in creating its own green energy sources to minimize its dependence on external sources. This will go a long way to not only stabilizing its energy costs, but to preventing energy spikes in the future.

01: Fiscal Crisis

The fiscal crisis can lead to many things — currency volatility, a credit crunch, and overall infrastructure fragility. Weakening currencies can cause costs to skyrocket. A credit crunch can severely restrict cash flow and make it almost impossible for an organization to temporarily borrow the cash it needs to secure the inventory required to produce the goods it plans to sell to create revenue and, eventually, generate profit. And infrastructure fragility, which weakens every time there is insufficient cash to invest in necessary maintenance, can result in transportation lanes, power plants, and basic utilities becoming unavailable overnight.

If the organization is a global multi-national, currency volatility can be mitigated by keeping keeping cash in multiple currencies. If a credit crunch is likely, the organization can reduce its expansion and investment plans to maintain enough cash on hand to continue operations without interruption. And if the infrastructure is becoming fragile, the organization can invest in infrastructure improvements. If the government will take loans (by selling bonds) to finance improvements, the organization can invest to insure continued availability of necessary public infrastructure. If not, the organization can invest in its own infrastructure to the greatest extent possible or relocate operations to where the infrastructure is strong and expected to stay strong.