Category Archives: Risk Management

Should You Hedge Your Transportation Costs?

It’s a tough question, and one that you need to answer sooner rather than later. If you read this recent article on how “global shipping lines grapple with plunging rates, overcapacity, and faltering recover”, you realize that the global shipping industry is likely in for a very shaky ride over the next few years given the unpredictable demand, the strong likelihood of consolidation, and the big bets some major shippers are making that could intensify the current overcapacity problem.

The following tidbits of information in particular are worrisome:

  • GDP growth forecasts for Canada in 2012 have recently been revised downwards by various analysts to just above 2%
    Canada, which has done quite well in weathering the global economic storm (through better bank regulation, smarter risk aversion, and a focus on natural resources) is barely going to grow. Imagine how the Eurozone and the USA are going to fare in 2012.
  • China growth, while in the high single digits, is slowing
    When GDP growth in the country that houses one-sixth of the world’s population and that is still on track replace the USA as the dominant economic superpower in under fifteen (15) years is slowing, what hope does the rest of the world have for a quick recovery?
  • The dollar still drives decisions. Green is of secondary importance.
    With little incentive to look at new technologies, there is little incentive to look at sustainable solutions that could be more cost effective in the long run. (Such as more efficient engines, on-board solar and wind power, etc.)
  • Maersk, which ordered 10 Triple E vessels capable of carrying 18,000 TEUs in February 2011, ordered 10 more mega-vessels that will cost US $190 Million in late June.
    All of these vessels are bigger than the 15,000 TEU Emma Maersk, which will remain the largest container ship on the high seas until 2013 when the new ships are deployed. But where is the volume going to come from to fill them?
  • Maersk is betting that Asia-Europe trade will increase by 5% to 8% annually over the next four years.
    China’s GDP growth is around 9% and falling. And not all of that is due to trade. The Eurozone is dealing with one financial crisis after another, and no other country in Asia is going to keep up with China.
  • Box freight rates on the Far East-Europe spot market have plunged below zero after stripping out bunker surcharges. Worse, the rates will continue dropping as the big carriers engage in a “destructive” rate war.
    Price wars always have casualties.
  • Net rates are now lower than during the darkest period of the 2009 container slump.
    Rates have no where to go but up (although they may not start rising until we have a few price war casualties).
  • Alphaliner estimates that idle container ship tonnage will climb above 500,000 TEUs by the end of December.
    To put this in perspective, that’s 19.25 Million m3 of idle cargo space which could hold approximately 33.258 Trillion iPad 2’s in the box, if Foxconn could produce them all. (This is 4.75 iPad 2’s for everyone on the planet.)

Put all this together, and you see that:

  • (Some) carriers are going to go out of business.
    It could be yours!
  • Shipping lanes are going to close.
    Carriers will have to drop low volume lanes and consolidate volumes to keep costs down and stay in business.
  • Rates are going to go up.
    As those carriers that don’t go out of business will have no choice to raise rates if they stay in business, even with lane consolidation and elimination of discretionary and low-volume ports.

If you don’t have a ocean freight backup strategy, it’s time to get one, and if a delay could cause you a significant loss or increase in rates as you scramble to divert cargo to a higher cost carrier, it might be time to hedge your bets. the doctor may not be an expert in ocean freight, but this crystal ball is not very hard to read.

Avoiding the 88 Million Dollar Fine

In our last post, we pointed out how the likelihood of a multi-million dollar fine, which could range from the $3.1 Million recently paid by Maersk to the $88.3 Million recently paid by JP Morgan, is increasing almost daily for an average mid-size multi-national that is importing and exporting regularly as more sanctions, specially designated nationals (SDN), and denied parties are being added to the OFAC (Office of Foreign Asset Control) and BIS (Bureau of Industry and Security) lists.

The problem is that with dozens of major country sanctions in the Federal Register; hundreds of individual sanctions against countries for specified commodities, services, or financial transactions; and thousands of names on the SDN, denied persons, and denied entities list, it is impossible to keep on track of the situation manually — even if you have a team of clerks and lawyers reading around the clock. You need an automated solution. But not any solution will do.

Why? You can’t just do a(n) exact name match. First of all, the individual doing data entry could make a typo — and all of a sudden instead of AIR CESS HOLDINGS LTD, it’s AIR CHESS HOLDINGS LTD, and you’re shipping to a denied national in the UAE. Oops! Secondly, the individual placing the order could slightly alter his or her (company) name so that the local delivery person still knows the shipment is for him or her (since no illiterate American is going to spell Abdelwadoud Abou Mossaab correctly and Abdelwadod Abou Mosab is the best you can hope for) but so that it doesn’t match on a name search. You also have to check for close (mis)spellings.

But this isn’t enough. If the spelling is off enough, it will still be missed. You also have to check by address. If the address is an exact match and the name could be a match, then it’s probably a denied party. But even address isn’t enough. A smart denied party that is a corporate entity will just open a new PO Box and abbreviate their name enough so that a simple match algorithm will fail. However, you could argue that you can combat this with a greater than 80% success rate with some good AI and AR (automated reasoning) and then argue that if you do screw up once, you could have the fine minimized by working with the OFAC and/or BIS and demonstrating due diligence, but even this is not enough.

First of all, if the company knows it is on a denied party list and wants to get product from the US bad enough, and it is a “holding company”, or has a parent “holding company”, the first thing it’s going to do if it’s smart is open a new subsidiary or sister company at a new address with a new Director and then approach a new mid-sized supplier who will be thrilled at the opportunity to get new business and who will likely cease checking once there are no partial matches on the sanctions or denied parties lists. And then the minute the Federal Government marks the company as associated with denied (terrorist) entity, you pop up as supplying contraband and, to be blunt, you’re in boiling water.

Secondly, it might not be you that violates the sanction, but one of your first tier suppliers who violates it on your behalf, which, depending on what sanction is violated, could be just as bad. For example, your logistics carrier could decide to load perfectly fine Cargo destined to sanction-free Egypt (at least where your cargo is concerned), which is ok, but then stop at a Canadian port to pick up cargo for Saudi Arabia, and then, before it drops your cargo off in Egypt, stops at a Saudi port where your cargo is contraband under export requirements. Then, because of bad record keeping, it can’t prove that none of your cargo was off-loaded in Saudi Arabia, and that all of the cargo made it to Egypt, and, again, you are in hot water.

In other words, a first generation Trade Data Management Solution that automatically scans the sanctions and denied party lists is not enough. It also has to keep track of corporate relationships and verify that the company isn’t a shell or entity acting on behalf of a denied company or entity, and that it’s suppliers and services providers are not violating import and export restrictions on its behalf.

I’ve seen solutions that do a great job of applying AI and advanced analysis to detect denied parties on the lists that would not be spotted manually, and I’ve seen solutions that do a great job of providing visibility into first, and even second tier, supply chain in terms of what product is where, when, and where it’s going to go — but I haven’t seen a solution that does both superbly. To be honest, it’s been over a year since I have seen the best companies like Integration Point, TradeCard, CDC Tradebeam, QuestaWeb, and EcoVadis have to offer with respect to denied party / sanction screening, so I am issuing a challenge to all Global Trade Management (GTM) and SCV (Supply Chain Visibility) Providers. Show me a solution that can prevent OFAC and BIS violations and fines 100% when used properly, and I’ll give you a 3-part series.

Will Your Supply Chain Avoid the 88 Million Dollar Fine?

Last year, JP Morgan had to pay $88.3 Million in fines for breaking U.S. embargo laws and trade sanctions, including Global Terrorism Sanctions Regulations and Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferators Sanctions, in three incidents between 2005 and 2011 that involved Cuba, Iran and Sudan, as reported on AllGov. That’s a huge penalty that resulted from simply making loans and wire transfers. And in 2010, Maersk had to pay a $3.1 Million fine for using ships registered in the U.S. to carry commercial cargo to Sudan and Iran between January 2003 and October 2007. Another huge penalty for carrying goods that had never touched the US.

The issue at hand is trade sanctions and all of the pitfalls associated with them if you are US based, importing into, or exporting out of the US. As pointed out in this recent World Trade article on “avoiding the pitfalls of trade sanctions”, a company has to deal with:

  • (broad) country sanctions,
  • import or export specific country sanctions, and
  • Specially Designated National (SDN) sanctions against
    front companies, non-state entities, or individuals

maintained by the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the U.S. Department of the Treasury and:

  • denied persons list and
  • entity list

maintained by the Bureau of Industry and Security of the U.S. Department of Commerce.

There are dozens of country sanctions, hundreds of import/export (commodity) specific sanctions (and more could be on the way, including, of all places, a new sanction against the UK which could appear as early as 2013 as a result of allegations that they gave Airbus illegal subsidies (as per this recent Daily Mail article). And then there are thousands of denied persons and entities and this list also changes regularly.

So, what can you do? You can start by monitoring the sanction programs on the Treasury web site, country information, and the SDN list.

Then you can monitor the denied persons list and the denied entities list on the Bureau of Industry and Security site, which summarizes a multitude of export administration regulations. But considering that these are only summaries, and the full details can only be found in the Federal Register on the Department of State web site, including the pages on non-proliferation sanctions and chemical and biological weapons sanction laws as well as the pages of the counter narcotics group, you would also need to monitor the pages of the office of terrorism finance and economic sanctions policy, and the energy, sanctions, and commodities group of the bureau of economic and business affairs.

But that’s a lot of work … and it may not be enough! So what’s next?

Can You Endure the Exacerbated Euro?

Greece may be almost taken care of, but now Spain (and Portugal) are threatening to endanger the Euro’s future. Procurement’s problems with the Euro are far from over. But what can a Procurement Professional do?

Be cautions and ever vigilant. As explained by Julian Catchick in this recent article over on CPO Agenda on “How to Deal with the Troubled Euro”, about the only risk minimization strategies a buyer has available to her are to:

  • hedge,
  • spot buy in bulk to take advantage of a favourable exchange rate movement, and
  • fix the exchange rate with suppliers for a mutually agreed duration.

All of these strategies have their advantages and disadvantages.

  • Hedging on a different currency that tends to fluctuate in a manner opposite to the Euro (going up when the Euro goes down and vice versa) can mitigate the impact of a rapid Euro fluctuation if currency trades are made at appropriate times, but if the performance of the currency hedged in is not what is expected, losses can actually mount.
  • Spot buying can reduce acquisition costs significantly if done at the proper time, but if too much inventory is bought too early, inventory management costs will go up and eat into the savings.
  • A fixed exchange rate will mitigate currency fluctuation risk and allow for predictable purchase costs, but since the supplier will have to assume additional currency risk, a buffer will be built into their costs and the organization may end up paying more than it needs to.

Regardless, one strategy that should not be pursued is pulling out of the countries in question. Even though some banks are minimizing exposure to these countries, it is not the country that poses the risk to the buyer, but the supplier. As Julian states, it is not likely that buyers face a material risk as long as they look into the suppliers’ financials and credit ratings and also establish how balanced their portfolios are across other geographies. Plus, given that the buyer can get much credit better terms than the suppliers in these countries, the buyer has an opportunity to reduce costs further by pre-paying for goods and services (with a stable supplier) at a substantial discount. Suppliers need regular cash flow, and if their terms are 30%, and your terms are 5%, there’s no reason that your Procurement organization couldn’t extract a 20%+ discount due to their cost of capital. That’s a smart Procurement move!

And if there is concern about future risk, build additional break and termination clauses into the contract. If a major currency fluctuation (or collapse) would make the supplier potentially insolvent, give the buying organization the right to terminate the contract, just like you’d do with any insurance or hedging contract. But, as Julian advises, don’t forego long term (strategic) relationships just because there is a potential currency risk.

The Procurement Game Plan: A Review Part I.2

Charles Dominick of Next Level Purchasing and Soheila R. Lunney of Lunney Advisory Group recently released The Procurement Game Plan: Winning Strategies and Techniques for Supply Management Professionals. In our last post, we set the stage with The Purchasing Professional’s 10 Commandments. In this post we’re going to continue our fairly detailed review of this book, which will span four or five posts. We’ll start by covering the first four chapters of the book that discuss organizational role, supply management strategy, talent, and social responsibility — the stage that a modern supply management professional has to act upon.

The first chapter on Procurement’s Place in the organization starts out with an overview of management’s expectations of modern Procurement — something every Procurement Pro needs to know when finding a (new) job in today’s highly competitive skill-based marketplace. We’re well beyond the time when all that was expected of Supply Management was cost savings. Now, with costs rising and consumer belts tightening, Supply Management is also being tasked to deliver productivity improvements, brand & differentiation support, customer satisfacation, cash flow improvements, great service, competitive advantage, and sometimes even revenue. It’s a tall order for a single organization — it’s good that the strategies and tools exist to deliver. (And that’s kind of what this blog is all about, but the doctor digresses.)

The chapter then dives into the types of goals that Procurement / Supply Management organizations have, and this is where the value of the book starts to kick in. Organizations, depending on their stage of maturity, either have no (documented) goals, which is very bad, vague goals (with no meaningful measurable targets), which is bad as a professional will not know how important each goal is relative to other goals, SMART (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant, and Time-Bound) goals, which are good and a minimum requirement for organizational success, or Strategic SMART goals, which are great as they also tie the SMART goals to overall organizational strategy. A world-class supply management organization puts the good of the organization before the good of itself.

The chapter also discusses strategic vs. tactical procurement, Procurement as a Profit Centre, Procurement as a Service Centre, and Procurement’s Role in Specification Writing — but the other key section of the chapter is The Procurement Manifesto. Because it can be difficult to gain buy-in from functional departments when trying to get them to accept Procurement’s involvement, it is important to have a list of reasons why it will benefit them to work with Procurement. Your Supply Management organization should have such a list and should describe then in The Procurement Manifesto that can be given to the other organizational units. For details on what to include, see the book.

The next chapter discusses Supply Management Strategy — The Procurement Playbook if you will. The existence of an appropriately written guiding document will help keep the organization on the same page and help it to achieve its goals. Such a document must contain the following five sections in order to meet the department’s needs:

  1. The Procurement Organization’s Business Plan
  2. The Procurement Organization Structure
  3. Cost Control Strategies
  4. Risk Management Strategies
  5. The Supply Management Sourcing & Procurement Methodologies

Each piece of the puzzle must be clearly defined and outlined, and each organizational member must be on the same page. For details on how to write the Procurement business plan, on what types of cost control strategies to focus on, and what types of risk management strategies might be included, see the book.

One of the key parts of this chapter is the section on standard supplier selection criteria. The authors note that you should use a hierarchy of constraints and criteria every time you select a supplier. That hierarchy must include all of the relevant selection criteria, ordered and weighted so that each supplier can be compared fairly. This is sometimes the only way to determine which supplier will be the best fit for an organization. Generally speaking, this hierarchy should contain cost, value, quality, service, social responsibility, convenience, risk, and agility at a minimum, with other factors added depending on the goods or service being sourced. The weightings and rankings will be project specific.

The next chapter on Procurement Talent Management is one of the key chapters of the books and contains one of the key messages, talent is key to success. Without it, no amount of technology or transition management will help. It does a great job of discussing the five facets of the talent management cycle — Assess, Retain, Develop, Recruit, and Unify — and how each is necessary for organizational success. It also points out that they are not sequential and, depending on organizational needs, they may all need to be addressed simultaneously. Not only is talent management more important than many organizations prioritize it in their key issues list, but it is more difficult than many organizations would lead you to believe. This is a chapter to be reviewed in depth as almost every point matters, but a key point it addresses that is often missed is that education is a retention tool. Real professionals want to learn and improve, and will value an employer that not only allows them to do that, but that sponsors their education and efforts to improve themselves. The value of educating a resource is many times the up-front investment. Many, many times. The only point I’d disagree with in the entire chapter is the statement that by working with the business schools of the universities in your area, you can hire (at no cost/credit only or at minimal cost) intelligent and hard-working interns to take away the burden of tactical work from your strategic sourcing team members. While it is true that you can hire these intelligent, eager, hard-working resources at little-cost to do just this, they will need regular supervision from your senior Procurement Professionals, and this is a hidden cost you will need to account for.

The next chapter, and the final chapter that we’ll cover in this post, is on social responsibility in procurement: the new rules for a more responsible game. Whether this is important to your organization now or not, it will soon be as more and more consumers demand environmental or social responsibility, so you better get a handle on how it is going to impact your organization now, or you’ll be scrambling later when the media has you under the gone. Not a situation any Supply Management organization wants to be in when they can eliminate the risk with some careful research, planning, and a social responsibility program – which may not have to be all that extensive or demanding.

One of the key points covered by the chapter, which is often missed by other books, is ethics. Not only does social responsibility start with ethical behaviour, but a perceived lack of ethics, real or not, can land you and your organization in hot-water. As an example, the authors describe some recent government scandals, including one that got their mayor in some very hot water. In 2007, Mayor Luke Ravenstahl accepted two days of golf in the Mario Lemieux Celebrity Invitational from UPMC and the Pittsburgh Penguins, valued at $9K. His defence is that while the city’s ethics code limited city officials to accept admission to cultural or athletic events valued at $250 or less per year, charitable outings were exempted. This may have been a charitable event, but it’s value created a perceived conflict of interest that landed him in very hot water with the media. Then, a few months later, he decided he wanted to accept free tickets to go to a Stanley Cup Final game against the Detroit Red Wings. This time, he asked for an official legal opinion first, but it didn’t matter because the ticket value was very high and another councillor said he made half of the Mayor’s salary and pays for his hockey tickets out of his own pocket and the mayor should do the same. The lesson is that even if you don’t violate the ethics or gift acceptance policy of your organization, if there is any chance your actions could be perceived by a (large) group of people as unethical, you probably shouldn’t do it. And if you have to think about whether or not something is ethical, and, even worse, think you have to ask permission, just don’t do it.

The sections on the supplier code of conduct, green procurement, and supplier diversity, which for the most part cover all of the basics, are also quite good and worth a careful read.

That’s it for Part I. In Part II, we’ll discuss the next four chapters on Strategic Sourcing, Supplier Qualification, and Negotiations. Stay tuned.