Category Archives: Risk Management

Will Your Supply Chain Avoid the 88 Million Dollar Fine?

Last year, JP Morgan had to pay $88.3 Million in fines for breaking U.S. embargo laws and trade sanctions, including Global Terrorism Sanctions Regulations and Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferators Sanctions, in three incidents between 2005 and 2011 that involved Cuba, Iran and Sudan, as reported on AllGov. That’s a huge penalty that resulted from simply making loans and wire transfers. And in 2010, Maersk had to pay a $3.1 Million fine for using ships registered in the U.S. to carry commercial cargo to Sudan and Iran between January 2003 and October 2007. Another huge penalty for carrying goods that had never touched the US.

The issue at hand is trade sanctions and all of the pitfalls associated with them if you are US based, importing into, or exporting out of the US. As pointed out in this recent World Trade article on “avoiding the pitfalls of trade sanctions”, a company has to deal with:

  • (broad) country sanctions,
  • import or export specific country sanctions, and
  • Specially Designated National (SDN) sanctions against
    front companies, non-state entities, or individuals

maintained by the Office of Foreign Assets Control of the U.S. Department of the Treasury and:

  • denied persons list and
  • entity list

maintained by the Bureau of Industry and Security of the U.S. Department of Commerce.

There are dozens of country sanctions, hundreds of import/export (commodity) specific sanctions (and more could be on the way, including, of all places, a new sanction against the UK which could appear as early as 2013 as a result of allegations that they gave Airbus illegal subsidies (as per this recent Daily Mail article). And then there are thousands of denied persons and entities and this list also changes regularly.

So, what can you do? You can start by monitoring the sanction programs on the Treasury web site, country information, and the SDN list.

Then you can monitor the denied persons list and the denied entities list on the Bureau of Industry and Security site, which summarizes a multitude of export administration regulations. But considering that these are only summaries, and the full details can only be found in the Federal Register on the Department of State web site, including the pages on non-proliferation sanctions and chemical and biological weapons sanction laws as well as the pages of the counter narcotics group, you would also need to monitor the pages of the office of terrorism finance and economic sanctions policy, and the energy, sanctions, and commodities group of the bureau of economic and business affairs.

But that’s a lot of work … and it may not be enough! So what’s next?

Can You Endure the Exacerbated Euro?

Greece may be almost taken care of, but now Spain (and Portugal) are threatening to endanger the Euro’s future. Procurement’s problems with the Euro are far from over. But what can a Procurement Professional do?

Be cautions and ever vigilant. As explained by Julian Catchick in this recent article over on CPO Agenda on “How to Deal with the Troubled Euro”, about the only risk minimization strategies a buyer has available to her are to:

  • hedge,
  • spot buy in bulk to take advantage of a favourable exchange rate movement, and
  • fix the exchange rate with suppliers for a mutually agreed duration.

All of these strategies have their advantages and disadvantages.

  • Hedging on a different currency that tends to fluctuate in a manner opposite to the Euro (going up when the Euro goes down and vice versa) can mitigate the impact of a rapid Euro fluctuation if currency trades are made at appropriate times, but if the performance of the currency hedged in is not what is expected, losses can actually mount.
  • Spot buying can reduce acquisition costs significantly if done at the proper time, but if too much inventory is bought too early, inventory management costs will go up and eat into the savings.
  • A fixed exchange rate will mitigate currency fluctuation risk and allow for predictable purchase costs, but since the supplier will have to assume additional currency risk, a buffer will be built into their costs and the organization may end up paying more than it needs to.

Regardless, one strategy that should not be pursued is pulling out of the countries in question. Even though some banks are minimizing exposure to these countries, it is not the country that poses the risk to the buyer, but the supplier. As Julian states, it is not likely that buyers face a material risk as long as they look into the suppliers’ financials and credit ratings and also establish how balanced their portfolios are across other geographies. Plus, given that the buyer can get much credit better terms than the suppliers in these countries, the buyer has an opportunity to reduce costs further by pre-paying for goods and services (with a stable supplier) at a substantial discount. Suppliers need regular cash flow, and if their terms are 30%, and your terms are 5%, there’s no reason that your Procurement organization couldn’t extract a 20%+ discount due to their cost of capital. That’s a smart Procurement move!

And if there is concern about future risk, build additional break and termination clauses into the contract. If a major currency fluctuation (or collapse) would make the supplier potentially insolvent, give the buying organization the right to terminate the contract, just like you’d do with any insurance or hedging contract. But, as Julian advises, don’t forego long term (strategic) relationships just because there is a potential currency risk.

The Procurement Game Plan: A Review Part I.2

Charles Dominick of Next Level Purchasing and Soheila R. Lunney of Lunney Advisory Group recently released The Procurement Game Plan: Winning Strategies and Techniques for Supply Management Professionals. In our last post, we set the stage with The Purchasing Professional’s 10 Commandments. In this post we’re going to continue our fairly detailed review of this book, which will span four or five posts. We’ll start by covering the first four chapters of the book that discuss organizational role, supply management strategy, talent, and social responsibility — the stage that a modern supply management professional has to act upon.

The first chapter on Procurement’s Place in the organization starts out with an overview of management’s expectations of modern Procurement — something every Procurement Pro needs to know when finding a (new) job in today’s highly competitive skill-based marketplace. We’re well beyond the time when all that was expected of Supply Management was cost savings. Now, with costs rising and consumer belts tightening, Supply Management is also being tasked to deliver productivity improvements, brand & differentiation support, customer satisfacation, cash flow improvements, great service, competitive advantage, and sometimes even revenue. It’s a tall order for a single organization — it’s good that the strategies and tools exist to deliver. (And that’s kind of what this blog is all about, but the doctor digresses.)

The chapter then dives into the types of goals that Procurement / Supply Management organizations have, and this is where the value of the book starts to kick in. Organizations, depending on their stage of maturity, either have no (documented) goals, which is very bad, vague goals (with no meaningful measurable targets), which is bad as a professional will not know how important each goal is relative to other goals, SMART (Specific, Measurable, Attainable, Relevant, and Time-Bound) goals, which are good and a minimum requirement for organizational success, or Strategic SMART goals, which are great as they also tie the SMART goals to overall organizational strategy. A world-class supply management organization puts the good of the organization before the good of itself.

The chapter also discusses strategic vs. tactical procurement, Procurement as a Profit Centre, Procurement as a Service Centre, and Procurement’s Role in Specification Writing — but the other key section of the chapter is The Procurement Manifesto. Because it can be difficult to gain buy-in from functional departments when trying to get them to accept Procurement’s involvement, it is important to have a list of reasons why it will benefit them to work with Procurement. Your Supply Management organization should have such a list and should describe then in The Procurement Manifesto that can be given to the other organizational units. For details on what to include, see the book.

The next chapter discusses Supply Management Strategy — The Procurement Playbook if you will. The existence of an appropriately written guiding document will help keep the organization on the same page and help it to achieve its goals. Such a document must contain the following five sections in order to meet the department’s needs:

  1. The Procurement Organization’s Business Plan
  2. The Procurement Organization Structure
  3. Cost Control Strategies
  4. Risk Management Strategies
  5. The Supply Management Sourcing & Procurement Methodologies

Each piece of the puzzle must be clearly defined and outlined, and each organizational member must be on the same page. For details on how to write the Procurement business plan, on what types of cost control strategies to focus on, and what types of risk management strategies might be included, see the book.

One of the key parts of this chapter is the section on standard supplier selection criteria. The authors note that you should use a hierarchy of constraints and criteria every time you select a supplier. That hierarchy must include all of the relevant selection criteria, ordered and weighted so that each supplier can be compared fairly. This is sometimes the only way to determine which supplier will be the best fit for an organization. Generally speaking, this hierarchy should contain cost, value, quality, service, social responsibility, convenience, risk, and agility at a minimum, with other factors added depending on the goods or service being sourced. The weightings and rankings will be project specific.

The next chapter on Procurement Talent Management is one of the key chapters of the books and contains one of the key messages, talent is key to success. Without it, no amount of technology or transition management will help. It does a great job of discussing the five facets of the talent management cycle — Assess, Retain, Develop, Recruit, and Unify — and how each is necessary for organizational success. It also points out that they are not sequential and, depending on organizational needs, they may all need to be addressed simultaneously. Not only is talent management more important than many organizations prioritize it in their key issues list, but it is more difficult than many organizations would lead you to believe. This is a chapter to be reviewed in depth as almost every point matters, but a key point it addresses that is often missed is that education is a retention tool. Real professionals want to learn and improve, and will value an employer that not only allows them to do that, but that sponsors their education and efforts to improve themselves. The value of educating a resource is many times the up-front investment. Many, many times. The only point I’d disagree with in the entire chapter is the statement that by working with the business schools of the universities in your area, you can hire (at no cost/credit only or at minimal cost) intelligent and hard-working interns to take away the burden of tactical work from your strategic sourcing team members. While it is true that you can hire these intelligent, eager, hard-working resources at little-cost to do just this, they will need regular supervision from your senior Procurement Professionals, and this is a hidden cost you will need to account for.

The next chapter, and the final chapter that we’ll cover in this post, is on social responsibility in procurement: the new rules for a more responsible game. Whether this is important to your organization now or not, it will soon be as more and more consumers demand environmental or social responsibility, so you better get a handle on how it is going to impact your organization now, or you’ll be scrambling later when the media has you under the gone. Not a situation any Supply Management organization wants to be in when they can eliminate the risk with some careful research, planning, and a social responsibility program – which may not have to be all that extensive or demanding.

One of the key points covered by the chapter, which is often missed by other books, is ethics. Not only does social responsibility start with ethical behaviour, but a perceived lack of ethics, real or not, can land you and your organization in hot-water. As an example, the authors describe some recent government scandals, including one that got their mayor in some very hot water. In 2007, Mayor Luke Ravenstahl accepted two days of golf in the Mario Lemieux Celebrity Invitational from UPMC and the Pittsburgh Penguins, valued at $9K. His defence is that while the city’s ethics code limited city officials to accept admission to cultural or athletic events valued at $250 or less per year, charitable outings were exempted. This may have been a charitable event, but it’s value created a perceived conflict of interest that landed him in very hot water with the media. Then, a few months later, he decided he wanted to accept free tickets to go to a Stanley Cup Final game against the Detroit Red Wings. This time, he asked for an official legal opinion first, but it didn’t matter because the ticket value was very high and another councillor said he made half of the Mayor’s salary and pays for his hockey tickets out of his own pocket and the mayor should do the same. The lesson is that even if you don’t violate the ethics or gift acceptance policy of your organization, if there is any chance your actions could be perceived by a (large) group of people as unethical, you probably shouldn’t do it. And if you have to think about whether or not something is ethical, and, even worse, think you have to ask permission, just don’t do it.

The sections on the supplier code of conduct, green procurement, and supplier diversity, which for the most part cover all of the basics, are also quite good and worth a careful read.

That’s it for Part I. In Part II, we’ll discuss the next four chapters on Strategic Sourcing, Supplier Qualification, and Negotiations. Stay tuned.

Supply Chain Disaster Management

Earlier this year, EBN Online ran a good article on “Managing the Variables in a Supply Chain Disaster” that outlined the basic steps a global company can use to get started on planning for a disaster.

It’s obvious, with all of the recent natural disasters, political disasters, and economic disasters, that a supply chain natural disaster is coming your way. It’s just a question of what, when, and how it is going to impact your supply chain. That’s why you need to plan. So where do you start?

According to the author, start by getting all of the departments together — IT, operations, sales, warehousing, administration, and management — to help map out the entire upstream and downstream supply network and determine where the different risk points are and what risks are most likely to materialize. And, as Jim Lawton points out in this Industry Week article on “Country Risk — What You’re Overlooking”, you have to not only focus on your suppliers and the countries they are located in (whch contribute to the political, economic, and commercial risks that are faced by your organization), but your suppliers’ suppliers and the countries they are located in.

Then run a variety of “what if” scenarios to see how the company could recover if supply is interrupted, a warehouse goes up in smoke, a supplier becomes unavailable, freight rates or tarrifs rise substantially, preferred raw materials or components get banned for regulatory reasons, or something else possible, but not predictable, happens. If there is no way to recover, something has to be done now before it’s too late for your supply chain, and maybe your entire organization. For example, if all of the company’s supply for a certain component is from South Korea, and supply from South Korea gets cut off, there would be no recovery. The company either has to find a secondary source of supply from another country, or a way to use a slightly different component to accomplish the same task.

If a moderate increase in freight rates or tarrifs would prevent the company from being able to source a raw material at a price that would allow the company to turn a profit on the finished product, then the company has to identify alternate, cheaper, transportation methods, a way to further save on raw material costs, or a way to increase the value, and thus the selling price, on the finished product. If a raw material gets banned from usage in the product the organization plans on importing into Europe, then the organization has to have a way to produce the component using a different raw material, which could require a different design or manufacturing method, which could add cost as well.

The short of the story is that disaster planning is more than just identifying the upstream supply network and more than just identifying what could go wrong, but also identifying how a recovery could be initiated if necessary.

Are You Ready For Name-And-Shame Legislation?

On January 1, 2012, the California Transparency in Supply Chains Act (SB 657) want into effect. it’s an example of “name and shame” legislation, which requires companies to report on specific actions taken to eradicate slavery and human tracking in their supply chain. The idea is that if slavery and human trafficking is in your supply chain, you’ll have to tell the world and the resulting consumer and shareholder pressure will force you to achieve the social goals of doing whatever it takes to eliminate human trafficking and slavery.

If your company

  • files California taxes as a retailer or manufacturer,
  • does business in California as defined in the California Revenue and Taxation Code, and
  • earns more than 100 Million in worldwide gross receipts

then your company must report on five specific points under this act. Summarized by the VACIT acronym, the company must report whether it:

  • Verifies
    and engages in third party verification (that identifies the risk of slavery and human trafficking)
  • Audits
    and engages in independent, unannounced, auditing to check on adherence to company standards
  • Certifies
    and requires its direct suppliers to certify that the materials incorporated into its products comply with local laws
  • Maintains Accountability
    and holds its employees and contractors accountable to company standards and
  • Trains
    employees directly responsible for risk mitigation in its supply chain.

This is not the first example of such legislation. For example, in July 2008 the New South Wales Food Authority passed laws amending existing provisions which allowed the authority to publish details of successful food business prosecutions on its website. And it won’t be the last. At the Federal Level, H.R. 2759 (Business Transparency on Trafficking and Slavery Act) was introduced last August and, if passed, would require publicly-traded companies to disclose on their annual reports to the Securities and Exchange Commission any measures that are being taken to identify and address conditions of forced labour, slavery and human trafficking within the company’s supply chains.

The net effect is that there are not only legal and business issues heading your way as this legislation crops up in other states, and eventually, in other countries, but reputational concerns that will materialize as well. For example, as pointed out in this recent article in Retailing Today on how Name and Shame is the New Supply Chain Game, not only must the company disclose how it is complying with the provisions of the Act on the company’s website, but it must also consider how this will affect its stakeholders, customers, investors, and their view of the company. A less than robust (policy) disclosure can cast the company in a bad light and do considerable damage to the supply chain organization. From a Risk Management standpoint, your organization needs to be ready. Are you?