Category Archives: Supply Chain

A Transformative Supply Chain Strategy

Aligning demand and supply profitability determines the competitivepositioning of an enterprise in a challenging marketplace. However, disconnected cross-organizational communication and collaboration often get in the way of achieving that alignment and result in drawn-out, dysfunctional sales and operations planning (S&OP) cycles. The situation is further complicated due to unforeseen or uncontrollable factors such as volatile customer demand, proliferating SKUs, increased new product introductions, global sourcing options and competition from multiple manufacturers.

Additionally, current manually-driven S&OP processes fail to alleviate many of these pressures and are not sufficient in today’s high-pressured business environment. In order to be successful, S&OP approaches must evolve to adopt the attributes of “integrated business planning” — incorporating truly cross-functional, multidimensional processes that include all elements of demand, supply and financial analysis in relation to the business goals and strategy. As a result, enterprises looking to modernize their S&OP processes need to embrace transformative strategies that encourage collaboration to drive improvement, according to a recent article on “Transformative Supply Chain Strategies” in Industry Week.

This can be achieved by breaking down the organizational silos in a transformation initiative that addresses key people, processes, and technologies. Such an initiative will prioritize forecasting, inventory, and production, assign clear ownership and accountability for specific processes, conduct proper business analyses in place of seat-of-the-pants reactions to current market conditions, and, most importantly, move away from technology silos to a single version of the truth.

Specifically, as the article points out, it will eliminate reporting tools and spreadsheets at the department level and move to an Integrated Business Planning (IBP) or a single Supply Chain Visibility (SCV) solution. If each department uses its own technology solution to address its own planning processes, the business works off of a myopic and disconnected view of S&OP that is inefficient, costly, and not sustainable. It’s the paradox of traditional “Business Intelligence” technology (and also why you can’t use traditional BI for Spend Analysis): the more you use, the less you know. Especially when spreadsheets are involved — which accomplish nothing more than generating multiple, inaccurate, versions of the data and not the single version of the truth that an enterprise needs to make good business decisions (especially when you consider that 90% of spreadsheets have non-trivial errors).

So throw out your spreadsheets and adopt proper sourcing, procurement, and supply chain solutions that centralize your transactions and supply chain data and generate the necessary reports off of a single version of the data. You’ll be better for it!

Supply Chain Digest’s Eight Step Forecasting Process Using Demand Planning Software

Every now and again I like to address the forecasting process because, as a sourcing and procurement professional, you are often negotiating contracts against a perceived volume leverage based as much off of a forecast as it is based on historical data. In Part I we reviewed judgmental and statistical forecasts and explained why you need to balance both methodologies when generating your forecast, in Part II we addressed commodities forecasting and how you need to base it on the right data and the right factors, and in Part III I directed you to “Forecast Less and Get Better Results” on SupplyChain.com that demonstrated that the conventional wisdom that companies need to project forecasts and plans far into the future at a highly granular level is not necessarily right. Then, in Forecast with Foresight, I pointed you to a Supply & Demand Chain Executive article on a study about “re-thinking demand management” that noted that active/predictive demand management is necessary for good forecasting.

Part of active/predictive demand management is good demand planning. Good demand planning involves good demand planning software, so it was nice to see the Supply Chain Digest editorial staff print a short guide on how to attack the process, even if the first two steps didn’t fully address the problem.

The process, which was still quite good, that they presented was:

  1. Load Historical Data and Create Master Data
    Identify the key data elements that need to be considered and load them.
  2. Clean the Historical Data
    There are almost always problems with the quality and completeness of the data loaded into the system. E.g. “demand” may not be true demand, because it is taken from “sales” data, and will not include “stock-outs”.
  3. Generate a Statistical Forecast for Existing Products
    Use demand planning software with built in statistical models to find a “best fit” that will give you a starting forecast.
  4. Prepare Forecasts for New Product Introductions (NPI)
    Use the demand planning software to identify products with similar sales trajectories which will be used as the starting forecasts for the NPIs.
  5. Override Statistical Forecasts with Judgmental Input
    Use data from sales channels, knowledge about changes in market conditions, and expert insight to smooth the forecasts into the most realistic forecasts possible.
  6. Adjust the Baseline Forecasts for Promotions
    In certain industries, like consumer goods, promotions can have a huge impact on sales volume and need to be factored into the baseline forecasts.
  7. Manage Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) and Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR) Processes
    Be sure to communicate data to both customers and internal managers responsible for these programs.
  8. Generate a “One Number” Forecast
    Integrate forecasting into a Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) that brings together executives from key areas of the company to ultimately agree on a single forecast number and execution plan that will drive both the demand and supply sides of the enterprise.

The one change I’d make would be to replace the first two steps with the following:

  1. Do a Spend Analysis
    A spend analysis project, performed by a spend analysis expert that uses a real spend analysis tool, will load all of your relevant data, cleanse it, normalize it, and properly classify it in multiple spend cubes. The resulting cubes will allow you to perform the analyses necessary to identify which data is relevant, which data is statistically significant, and, more importantly, which products require significant forecasting efforts and which products are relatively stable year after year. Products with relatively stable sales do not need significant forecasting efforts, because expected demand can be easily determined from the spend analysis. On the other hand, products with variable sales, especially those products with a seasonal demand that are heavily influenced both by manufacturer promotions and competitor’s promotions for similar products, require detailed forecasting efforts.
  2. Load the Relevant Data
    Once you have identified those products that require forecasting efforts, you can load the associated data that is needed to run the statistical models, to determine the effects of planned promotions, and determine the appropriate demand forecasts.

Squeeze the Most Out of Your Supply Chain

Supply chain investment is on the rise, but many companies are finding that effectiveness still declines over time after the introduction of a new solution. Why is your average supply chain, powered by best-of-breed technologies, still not operating at peak efficiency? I’d argue that there are a number of reasons, including lack of proper visibility, lack of proper monitoring processes, and lack of proper training, but a recent article in Supply and Demand Chain Executive took a different twist. In “Squeezing the Most Out of Your Supply Chain”, the author, who notes that it is likely that your average supply chain is not operating at peak efficiency, indicates that a supply chain opportunity assessment can help you you determine if, and where, this is happening. This implies that one of the reasons your supply chain is not efficient is that your average company probably doesn’t know where it should be focussing and that the systems it is employing might not be the right systems or the systems the company needs the most.

A supply chain opportunity assessment gives your company a complete look at the overall state of one of its most critical functions and provides your company with a comprehensive list of opportunities for improvement. With this knowledge, your company can define a set of actions to improve its operating efficiency and ensure that its supply chain is properly designed to support growth and flexibility to prevent supply disruption.

A supply chain assessment is a straightforward process, which, as per the article, can be boiled down to a succinct series of steps.

  1. Define the scope.
    Business Unit or Entire Operation? Subset of processes or full spectrum? Although you should assess your entire supply chain, it’s often best to start small, focussed on key areas, to generate some initial improvements and wins that will fund future assessments.
  2. Examine the ongoing challenges in your business model.
    Document how information, materials, and financials flow through the organization and review the metrics that are being used to evaluate effectiveness. This will help to reveal the challenges.
  3. Identify key issues impacting performance and perform a root-cause analysis.
    Also be sure to compare the company’s existing processes to industry best practices. This will help you zero in on the real improvement opportunities.
  4. Identify and prioritize opportunities.
    Determine the potential business impact of each opportunity and the relative ease with which they can be realized. Then select the most valuable ones and start with those.
  5. Develop a solutions roadmap.
    Once you’ve identified the appropriate improvements, develop a roadmap that outlines the project plan, estimated timelines, and expected costs. And follow through!

Supply Chain IT Can Make A Competitive Difference

Since the mid-1990s, a new competitive dynamic has emerged — greater gaps between the leaders and laggards in an industry, more concentrated and winner-take-all markets, and more churn among rivals in a sector. Strikingly, this pattern closely matches the turbulent “creative destruction” mode of capitalism that was first predicted over 60 years ago by economist Joseph Schumpeter. This accelerated competition has coincided with a sharp increase in the quantity and quality of IT investments, as more organizations have moved to bolster (or altogether replace) their existing operating models using the internet and enterprise software.

In addition, the internet and enterprise IT are now accelerating competition within traditional industries in the broader U.S. economy. Why? Not because more products arebecoming digital but because more processes are: Just as a digital photo or a web-search algorithm can be endlessly replicated quickly and accuratelyby copying the underlying bits, a company’s unique business processes can now be propagated with much higher fidelity across the organization byembedding it in enterprise information technology. As a result, an innovator with a better way of doing things can scale up with unprecedented speed to dominate an industry. In response, a rival can roll out further process innovations throughout its product lines and geographic markets to recapture market share. Winners can win big and fast, but not necessarily for very long. Thus conclude Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson in their feature article in the Harvard Business Review on how “Investing in IT That Makes a Competitive Difference” can intensify competitiveness.

The article described a number of findings from research conducted by the authors along with Michael Sorell and Feng Zhu on the link between IT and competitiveness, and some of the findings were surprising. Not surprising was the fact that the average turbulence has been sharply increasing across numerous industries since the mid-1990’s or that industry concentration began increasing again around the same time. What was surprising was that the researchers also considered the role of M&A activity, globalization, and R&D spending in their analysis of the competitive landscape and, although they found some minor correlations, none came close to the impact of IT.

So, why the correlation between increased IT investment and competitiveness? The researchers posit that it was not the breadth of IT innovation that led to the improvement but because some of these newtechnologies enabled improvements to companies’ operating models and then made it possible to replicate those improvements much more widely. How does this happen? Consider the example given by the authors:

Imagine that a drugstore chain … has a number of rivals, most of which also have multiple stores. Before the advent of enterprise IT, a successful innovation by a manager at one store could lead to dominance in that manager’s local market. But because no firm had a monopoly on good managers, other firms might win the competitive battle in other local markets, reflecting the relative talent at these other locations. Sharing and replication of innovations (via analog technologies like corporate memos, procedures manuals, and training sessions) would be relatively slow and imperfect, and overall market share would change little from year to year.

With the advent of enterprise IT, however, not just [one drugstore chain], but its competitors [also] have the option to deploy technology to improve their processes. Some may not exercise this option because they don’t believe in the power of IT. Others will try and fail. Some will succeed, and effective innovations will spread rapidly. The firm with the best processes will win in most or all markets. At the same time, competitors will be able to strike back much more quickly: Instead of simply copying the first mover, they will introduce further IT-based innovations, perhaps instituting digitally mediated outsourcing or CRM software that identifies cross- and up-selling opportunities. These innovations will also propagate widely, rapidly, and accurately because they are embedded in the IT system. Success will prompt these companies to make bolder and more frequent competitive moves, and customers will switch from one company to another in response to them.

As a result, performance spread will rise, as the most successful IT exploiters pull away from the pack. Concentration will increase, as the losers fall by the wayside. And yet turbulence will actually intensify, as the remaining rivals use successive IT-enabled operating-model changes to leapfrog one another over time. Thus, despite the shakeout, rivalry in the industry will continue to become more fast-paced, intense, and dynamic than it was prior to the advent of enterprise technology.

In other words, technology innovation leads to business innovation, and business innovation gets results. So invest in modern supply chain systems — like sourcing, procurement, and global trade — and watch your competitiveness rise.

The Return of U.S. Manufacturing?

In my recent piece on Is Your Supply Chain Reversible, I noted that the US is now a low cost country source for (Western) Europe and that those manufacturers ready to take advantage of the situation are going to lead the turnaround in US manufacturing. Shortly after, I found an article in Industry Week that wanted to “welcome back US manufacturing” on the basis that high fuel and energy prices along with rising labor costs in traditionally low-wage markets have some manufacturers rethinking how far they are willing to extend their supply chains. This article caught my attention as it pointed out that some mid-size companies are already bringing manufacturing back home, as they are unable to control shipping costs that are spiraling out of control.

The article mentions Desa LLC, a manufacturer of residential heaters based in Bowling Green, KY, as a case in point. Despite the low production costs in China, the high shipping costs, combined with the recent VAT reductions in China, give local manufacturing a lower TCO. Then there’s the relative price increases in some raw materials in China compared to the US, the falling dollar, and across-the-board energy costs. When everything is put together, the perceived advantages of China-based manufacturing for many (large, bulky) products disappear.

Of course, as the article notes, not all manufacturers are going to return to the US, since labor costs are higher than in other countries, but, as the article notes, many are likely to return to the continent and “near-shore” to Mexico (and, if the dollar rebounds, to Canada for complex products and services). But many are considering the US. A recent AMR survey of manufacturing executives found that 21% are planning to increase US-based manufacturing over the next year and Caterpillar Inc., for example, is investing 1 Billion in a multi-year capacity expansion plan for five Illinois plants.

But when you consider that the smart US manufacturers, like CEI who recently invested in an robotic palletizing system that automated a formerly manual stacking procedure, are investing in better technology that makes production more cost efficient, it’s going to make more and more sense for many manufacturers to return home. After all, it’s all about competitiveness, and those companies who invest money into new equipment, processes, and innovation are always going to have an edge. And considering that the US has been the center-point for innovation over the last few decades, there’s no reason that US manufacturers can’t bring jobs back if they put a bit of effort and investment into it.