Continuing on our “the more things change, the more things stay the same” theme, back in 2008, the Supply Chain Digest published an article on Key Trends Impacting Supply Chain Management and Logistics for 2008 where it asked a number of leading academics and practitioners what they saw coming. (Their responses are summarized in this SI post.)

Nine (9) experts weighed in and provided 24 thoughts on what they saw coming in 2008. Those thoughts more-or-less fell into seven themes, and for the most part, those themes are the same themes today. Moreover, the specific concepts addressed are more-or-less the concepts being addressed today. Let’s take them theme by theme.

Delivered Cost

Four (4) of the nine (9) experts centered on cost as a core theme and stated that they believed:

• total delivered cost will take hold as a concept
• The required cross-functional focus needed to reduce costs will not get its due in most organizations
• The firms that recognize that a fresh approach focussed on value, cash flow, and light, non-intrusive, web-service-based, value-add software components that work with existing solutions and technologies will be the ones that make progress
• There will be an extensive focus on controlling oil and logistics costs
• Businesses will start to understand that supply chain efficiency is linked to price.

Total delivered cost is still a major theme today with the tariff mania, the steep price hikes in certain categories and shipping with the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz issues, and the increasingly price-sensitive consumer economy that is cash strapped as a result of so many essentials skyrocketing in price that is putting extra pressure on manufacturers, distributors, and retailers to keep costs down across the board.

Furthermore, in organizations that have already implemented reasonably modern procurement, logistics, and supply chain solutions, and achieved some process and cost savings, the only way they are going to get the next level of savings is with cross-functional coordination — reducing overstock and stock-outs; streamlining shop-floor procurement (from central warehouses and suppliers) with automation across manufacturing, logistics, supply chain, and procurement; etc.

The best results always involve identifying where automation and augmented intelligence can increase process efficiency and help identify more savings.

Oil and logistics costs are again at the forefront.

Finally, businesses have always known that supply chain efficiency is always linked to price. Business exists for Procurement, and it only continues to exist if it is more efficient in Procurement than individuals acting on their own.

Strategy/Models

Four (4) of the nine (9) experts also centered on cost as a core theme and stated that they believed:

• Strategy will become more important
• Companies will re-examine their strategic supply chain design decisions with regards to outsourcing
• Software and Service Provider Business Models will Continue to Change
• SCM organizations will have to focus more time and effort on tactical and operational issues driven by economic and competitive pressures

Strategy is becoming more important by the day as the rate of man-made disasters exceeds even natural ones, which have increased five fold over the last couple of decades. Especially with an AI-Hype induced market crash coming.

As a result of the tariff mania, companies are finally reconsidering their outsourcing and seriously looking for friendly sourcing, near sourcing, and home sourcing options where they have the opportunity to do so. For complex electronics or manufactured components that can only be produced in a few factories in the world, companies don’t have any choice but to outsource for those components but they are rethinking where final production takes place and then importing just what they need into select destinations.

The reality is that the fundamental capabilities of the vast majority of today’s software offerings are not that much different than the fundamental capabilities of the same software 20 years ago. The only difference: true multi-tenant cloud SaaS, hundreds of features you probably don’t use, greatly improved user interfaces, and more data to power them. Not counting Gen-AI, which is not reliable anyway, earlier versions of every other AI tech existed 20 years ago. And maybe the processing power wasn’t available to the average user or corporation, but the tech was there. However, most business apps don’t need AI, and all of the core procurement, supply chain, logistics, production, etc. functionality was there 20 years ago. Integration wasn’t out of the box, sometimes took forever to get basic data transfer between systems, and often happened just in time for a system upgrade. And the workflows were often so clunky it would take days to do what should take about an hour. Thus, since no one wants to buy the same stuff over and over, you need to change the business model to make it happen. Also, most consultants sell the same playbook for at least a decade, so they need to change the business model to hook you over and over.

The constant changing economic landscape as a result of tariff mania, the intermittent availability of straits and canals that change on a daily basis, the sanction wars, and other constant turmoil is forcing tactical and operational issues driven by economic pressure to the forefront.