Category Archives: Supply Chain

How Much Global Trade Data Should You Have?

As per our recent series on supply chain stability, and the need for visibility and audits, you need a lot of supply chain data. On your products, suppliers, and routes. As well as their products, suppliers, and routes. Down to the source.

But is that all you need — just suppliers, products, and routes down to the source?

Well, as per our previous series, you also need detailed data on alternate locations and other product offerings from your suppliers, alternate suppliers and their alternate product offerings, alternate routes, and alternate carriers that service them.

But that’s not enough.

Product existence is not availability, and availability is not obtainability. You also need to know if the countries, parties, or connected parties (owners) are sanctioned and if they use restricted or banned substances in their products or operations. If so, you can’t do business with them … and spending hours, days, weeks or months evaluating them just to figure that out when you try to order the first shipment.

But even if there are no sanctions or official roadblocks, it still might not be possible to acquire the goods you want from certain suppliers due to export and import tariffs. That means you need to know any export tariffs and import tariffs that will be applied, in the export country, import country, and any intermediate countries (that may not have [usable] FTZs).

Also, since some goods and services will be acquired, change hands, or used in the source countries, you also have to be aware of all the country, state, and municipal taxes that you will need to pay, as well as any taxes you can potentially reclaim.

This means we’re up to:

  • product compositions
  • supplier locations
  • route details
  • alternate products, suppliers, and routes
  • sanctions
  • denied parties
  • tariffs, export and import
  • taxes and recoverables

Is that all?

Well, in some countries you have to be cognizant of carbon/GHG production, so you need to be able to track how much carbon is produced in the production of each unit and be able to report that when needed, as well as control that if the country the good is being produced in, or sold in, has a carbon quota or carbon tax.

And it sounds like we’re nearing completion, but not really.

We left out cost data. If you have to find alternate products or suppliers, you really want to understand your costs. And not just market costs, should costs. Which means you should be tracking, when possible, raw commodity costs, component and part costs that allow you to estimate production costs on top of input costs, and currency exchanges, that allow you to build reasonable should cost models.

And while this might be enough to make perfect sourcing plans, we all know plans rarely turn into reality. So having the data to build the perfect hypothetical supply chain is a great start, but only in theory. In practicality, you need to know how realistic the supply chain is.

This means you need relevant supply line related data as well. Transport times, and risk of spoilage and theft are critical. As is natural disaster risk data related to storms (hurricanes, tsunamis, [fire] tornados), the possibility of floods, wildfires, blizzards; and earthquakes (or volcanic eruptions) in areas where they are common. You need to track this data to judge the potential reliability of supply chains.

Now we’ve added:

  • carbon/GHG
  • commodity market and product cost data
  • currency conversions and trends
  • natural disaster risks

While you think this may be everything, we’re sad to say that while it’s close, it’s not.

It’s not just natural disasters that matter, it’s man-made disasters. Mines collapsing, factories burning down, and unexpected supplier and carrier bankruptcies can also bring down your supply chains. So you need real-time event data.

Furthermore, while it won’t bring down supply chains, it can greatly vary demand and being aware of consumer sentiment, including mass displeasure and (potential) boycotts. If you’re selling consumables or creating high-priced electronics with a limited shelf-life, you don’t want to overproduce. And if there are indications of a demand surge, you want to be prepared so you don’t have costly stock-outs that could result in unhappy customers.

That’s quite a lot of data. And that’s a minimum.

When Was The Last Time You Did A Full Audit Of Your Supply Chain!

When a single event puts over 25T of global trade in jeopardy, or about 20% of Global GDP, you know you need a full end-to-end understanding of your critical supply chain.

The event I’m talking about is the 2026 US-Iran War that saw the Strait of Hormuz closed.

1. Global trade in goods and services is about 35% in US Dollars.
2. 80% to 90% of all traded goods move by ship through canals, straits, seas, and oceans.
3. About 8% of maritime trade by volume passes through the Strait of Hormuz.

Do the math, and it’s easy to see that the blockage / closure of the Strait puts over 25T of global trade in jeopardy, because wars in the Middle East tend to drag out for years!

The world was not ready for this. (They thought the US would never risk a war with Iran because of that … especially when the US could have continued last year’s strategy of just bombing uranium enrichment sites once per year as they neared completion and prevented Iran from ever reaching nuclear potential that way.)

Most company’s supply chains were even less ready — especially since some sectors saw way more than 20% impact, especially when it’s (one of) the largest trade route(s) for certain products like LNG (20%+/-), (crude) oil/petroleum (25%+/-), fertilizers (33%+/-), and sulfurs (50%+/-). Multi-national businesses without alternate sources or routes at their immediate disposal were put in instant financial jeopardy (and risk of bankruptcy)

As a result, you need more than supply chain visibility, you need full end-to-end supply chain awareness for all critical product lines, and that requires a full audit. You need to know where everything is coming from, what routes it’s taking to get to you, what alternatives exist (and to what extent — can you replace all, part or none), and what financial impact its disappearance would entail.

Even if you can get it at a reasonable price, supply chain insurance isn’t going to be enough anymore. As with any insurance, there will be exclusions for war, terrorism, etc. unless you pay astronomical prices, conflict zones will be excluded, and when a disaster wipes out an area and affects many clients at once, payouts won’t be quick and you can expect a massive amount of paperwork and effort will be required to get one (as the insurer won’t have enough cash on hand and will have to delay and delay until they can liquidate assets, which is difficult to do in crashing markets that result from economic disasters).

When something happens, you need to be able to react, reroute, and reorder quick. That will require not only deep visibility, but pre-defined mitigation plans when key regions, routes, or resources are impacted. The only way you will know this is if you do a full audit and associate each product to (sub-tier) suppliers, locations, countries/zones, and routes. That way, when a critical event (is likely to) happen(s), you can immediately identify the affected parties, locations, routes and associated products, and determine what you need to do in order to ensure continued supply. It might be switching plants, distribution routes and methods, or even suppliers.

If you haven’t done a supply chain audit in a few years, or ever, you should do one ASAP. You don’t want to be caught off guard when the next major disruption happens!

It’s Time For a Resurgence of Keiretsu!

Keiretsu, which can be briefly described as a long continual business relationship, in one way or another, has been a significant force in the Japanese economy for over four decades and, despite its long and varied history, criticisms, the Structural Impediments Initiative, and economic downturns, is still a strong foundation for many supply chain relationships in Japan. But now it needs to be the foundation for supply chain relationships the world over.

Twenty years ago we were in a period of (rising) globalization. Opening markets with the (first) cold war behind us. Limited, contained, conflicts. Relatively stable fuel prices. Piracy (off the Ivory Coast) was being curbed. And with the introduction of modern e-Sourcing and e-Procurement tools, it was easier by the day to invite more (and more) suppliers to events, to swap them out on a whim for (semi-)commodities, and keep supply lines fluid.

Relationships went on the decline for all but the most strategic suppliers because they weren’t necessary. But that was then, this is now.

Now we have anti-globalization and isolationism. Sanctions and closing markets. Escalating conflicts and closures of seas, straits, and critical shipping lanes. Rising and unpredictable fuel prices. A resurgence of piracy. Suppliers failing as a result of a myriad of tariffs, trade wars, border closings, shipping lanes, etc. Carriers failing as a result of rapid rising in fuel prices, insurance, increased theft, seizures, and blockades.

Suppliers who can actually fulfill your orders that you can actually receive products from that were once a dime a dozen to add to the RFP are now few and far between.

That means, now, more than anything, with risk and volatility increasing by the day, relationships matter again. Relationships that are:

  • long term: to create economic efficiencies that can help both parties survive the economic storm
  • knowledge sharing: workforce and even executives
  • business sharing: both parties buy from each other when possible and introduce throughout their partner networks
  • stock sharing: of the financial or physical variety — that reinforces each partner’s financial status when relevant or ensures security of cross-supply when stock-outs must be avoided
  • mutually beneficial asymmetrical trade: that works best for both parties

And relationships that can:

  • move low-value-add production to subsidiaries
  • ensure continuous high quality production capability to avoid excess production & consumer problems
  • improve risk management, especially with regards to variable or uncertain demand
  • ensure increased sales mean a corresponding increase for subsidiaries that are essential to the parent company’s survival
  • prevent critical confidential IP and technological information from being disclosed to short-term suppliers that may not be so obliged to keep it in the future, despite agreements

Which can help keep your supply chains running smooth in these troubled times.

Supply Chain Security Is Becoming More Important By The Day: Part II

Yesterday we reminded you of the benefits of supply chain security, and then noted good supply chain security has gone from a nice to have to an absolute must have.

In fact, your entire supply chain now needs to be designed with security in mind as well as risk. It’s not just lowest cost and availability of supply any more. It doesn’t matter if the supplier is lowest cost, highest quality, able to produce more than you need in the best market conditions, and guaranteed component and material supply from local distributors and mines if you can’t get the products from their factory halfway around the world to your local warehouse.

In other words, you can’t choose a supplier:

  • in a sanctioned country
  • if the only shipping routes include war zones

… without a backup (for when something inevitably goes wrong):

  • where there are active trade wars between their country and your HQ or target country
  • where the majority of shipping lanes are currently high risk (of disaster, piracy, and/or theft)
  • where the government is pursuing an isolationist agenda that could significantly impact exports
  • where the available transportation companies don’t have good security measures

Then, once you select that supplier, you need to focus on ensuring you have end-to-end security. This involves ensuring that:

  • you use suppliers with good plant security
  • … who use carriers with good security
  • … and sub-tier suppliers with good plant/mine/farm security
  • you have (near) real time GPS (cell/satelite) tracking on every vehicle
  • you have RFID tracking on every pallet
  • you ship food and drink in tamper proof packaging
  • you ship electronics or dangerous products in tamper aware packaging
  • you have documented chain of custody for every pallet from supplier factory to your warehouse
  • you have physical security for valuable goods (and especially those that are hot targets, like truckloads of iPhones)
  • … this includes the use of ocean freight carriers, that spend a lot of time in international waters, that have their own private security force to deter piracy / terrorism

Otherwise, you’ll have an insecure supply chain and it’s just a matter of time before you get blocked, seized, pirated, terrorized, or sunk.

Supply Chain Security Is Becoming More Important By The Day: Part I

We’ve known for decades the benefits of good supply chain security. (We talked about many of them 20 years ago on this blog.)

They included:

  • higher supply chain visibility
  • improved supply chain efficiency
  • better customer satisfaction
  • improved inventory management
  • reduced cycle and shipping time
  • improved product safety
  • improved inventory management
  • improved product handling
  • process time reduction
  • efficient clearance
  • better customer satisfaction
  • resilience

However, good supply chain security is now now just a nice to have, it’s an absolute must. Supply chains are as fragile as they have been in decades and, even worse, today’s prime targets for theft, sabotage, and terrorism. Including of the legal variety. Let’s discuss.

  • tariffs, trade wars, and trade barriers:
    in the midst of these spats, governments are looking for reasons to block or seize shipments — and a lack of security (where you can’t prove the goods weren’t swapped for counterfeit or sabotaged) can increase your chances that your goods will be turned away, stuck in customs indefinitely, seized, or even destroyed
  • pillaging pirates:
    the pirates are back on the Ivory Coast with a vengeance (they never really went away, but for a while they were less active as the generation of the 2000s retired)
  • military target proxies:
    we’ve already seen this in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz in particular, the Strait’s open, then it’s not, and if you’re a ship registered, or going to, the US or Iran, you’re a target
  • terrorism targets:
    sales and purchases of large quantities of fertilizer and other chemicals and materials that can be used to make bombs are carefully tracked in most developed countries, and flags are (supposed to be) raised, so it’s pretty hard to do a domestic bombing and get away with it; on the other hand, most private food shipments are not well tracked, even by the shipping companies, so it’s a lot easier to break into a truck when the driver stops to eat or sleep (and keep him that way with the help of chloroform) and inject a few hundred almond cakes with cyanide; spray the lettuce with a concentrated salmonella mist; replace the shipment of grain alcohol with methanol; etc. twenty years ago warnings were everywhere about next generation terrorism (and we discussed some of them here) — now that terrorism is on the rise again, the methods, and mass impact, is going to be much worse
  • natural disasters:
    they’re not going away — with the weather getting more extreme, plan on more (flash) fires, floods, tornados, hurricanes, tsunamis, etc. especially in routes traditionally at higher risk

In other words, your supply chain is under constant (threat of) attack, which makes security paramount. So what do you do?

Part 2 tomorrow!