Category Archives: Market Intelligence

Turbulence, Not Just for Airplanes Anymore!

Turbulence, a flow regime characterized by chaotic property changes, that occurs regularly in the earth’s atmosphere and makes for bumpy air travel when encountered, is not just restricted to air. It’s commonly found in water as well, when the oceanic currents mix, causing rough times for many a seafaring ship.

And when you consider that one of the most common causes is the rapid variation of pressure and velocity in space and time you see that it’s not even restricted to fluid dynamics. The general concept extends to the flow of physical goods and of virtual information when that flow, seemingly regular under normal circumstances, becomes highly irregular with the slightest perturbation.

Turbulence is a hidden risk in every supply chain, and one most organizations are never prepared for because, when a risk assessment is done, it is always focussed on easy-to-identify technological, economic, market, financial, organization, environmental and social risks — not random events that can temporarily interrupt your supply chain and cause temporary disruptions with serious financial or brand consequences. Temporary disruptions which, if regular in nature, can put your organization in real jeopardy and temporary disruptions, which, by their very nature cannot be planned for or even identified in an up-front risk assessment.

For example, when buying product components from China, an experienced risk team is going to identify:

  • Supplier Risk
    Are they financially stable? Will they adequately protect your IP? etc.
  • Factory Risk
    Is the quality acceptable? Are there workplace or safety hazards that could shut it down?
  • Port Risk
    Will the product be safe? Is there any danger of strike or overcapacity? On both sides …
  • Export and Import Risk
    Are all regulations adhered to? RoHS? WEEE? Has all the paperwork been completed and submitted on time?
  • Technology Risk
    Is the real-time product tracking and distribution system reliable? Backed Up? Integrated properly with all parties?
  • Environmental
    Is the product being made or stored in areas subject to regular natural disasters such as hurricanes, typhoons, earthquakes, etc.?
  • Social Responsibility
    Is the product conflict / slave labour free? Are all employees of all partners treated equitably? Is the product, and its production, environmentally friendly or at least environmentally safe? Can the product be safely disposed of?
  • Market
    Will the market still want your product when it is available? Is a competitor going to beat you to the market?
  • Economic
    Will the economy maintain or improve? Or will it worsen, leading to reduced demand across the board? What is the job forecast looking like in target markets – job loss in those areas can weaken consumer demand.

and a few dozen other common risks from the risk identification and management playbook. But it’s not going to identify one-time random events such as:

  • Unlikely Terrorist Attack by a random civilian who goes postal and, when trying to go postal, thanks to a gas leak, accidentally blows up a building due near the docks and causes the port to become unaccessible for 3 days
  • Delayed Delivery due to Paperwork Mix-Up
    One truck is scheduled for delivery of your product to your distribution warehouse, another for mid-term storage at a competitors warehouse on the other side of the continent. And because the small carrier you’re using doesn’t have real-time inventory tracking, and your product is schedule for JIT delivery, the mix-up isn’t detected until the expected delivery date when your product is half-way across the country.
  • False Stock-Out due to Inventory Mis-Key
    The clerk enters 8,000 units instead of 80,000 into the system, stores exactly 8,000 in the proper location in the ware-house, and puts the other 72,000 units of your hottest selling product at the back of the warehouse reserved for discontinued inventory.

Each of these events can happen, and each can cause a real, unexpected, and unpredictable turbulent impact to your supply chain. Are you ready for it? Can you react and adapt when it does?

Enjoy Your 32 Day Vacation!

The World Cup starts today.

For 30% of you, that means a 32 day vacation until the final match is played on July 13, or, at the very least, your best effort to work as little as possible during matches so that you may watch as many matches as possible.

How do I know this?

Is the doctor psychic?

Does the doctor have inside information?

Has the doctor been informed of your plans en masse?

No, he just has historical knowledge to guide him. SI has been going for 8 years (as of Monday, June 9) and over this timeframe has grown steadily in readership quarter-over-quarter, and often month-over-month, with only one exception which lasted for one month, where it saw, on average, a temporary drop in stats of almost 30%. An exception which happened almost four years ago to the day which, of course, coincided with the start of the 2010 World Cup.

So, for those of you taking vacation, enjoy it!

For the rest of you, you’ll be happy to know that SI plans to keep publishing, and will keep bringing you insights day in and day out.

Supply Managers Will Be the RockStars of The Resource Revolution


I’m through with standing in line
To clubs we’ll never get in
It’s like the bottom of the ninth
And I’m never gonna win
This life hasn’t turned out
Quite the way I want it to be

  from Rockstar by Nickelback

Supply Management hasn’t exactly been the poster-child of the corporation in recent years. In fact, in some organizations it would have been lucky to be the Island of Misfit toys that Mr. Dominick of Next Level Purchasing has compared it to. But if the Resource Revolution comes to pass, that might all change.

A recent article in the 2014 Q2 Edition of the McKinsey Quarterly that asked Are you ready for the resource revolution? said that another industrial revolution is coming, and while the first two focussed on labour and capital, two of the three primary business inputs identified by Adam Smith in his classic treatise The Wealth of Nations, the third will focus on the last input identify by Adam Smith — resources that come from the land.

According to the authors, who recently authored Resource Revolution, five approaches will be utilized by companies that lead the resource revolution. And three of these — namely substitution, optimization, and virtualization — will be critical to success. (The other two, circularity — or design for reuse and recycle, and waste elimination — or lean to the next level, will primarily be used in conjunction with the other methods to deliver significant enhancements that neither approach on its own to achieve. )

Substitution, the process of replacing costly, clunky, and/or scarce materials with cheaper, better, and more readily available materials, is already being used by those companies that have advanced to the highest stage of maturity in Supply Management.

Optimization, the process of embedding software in resource-intensive industries to improve how companies produce and use scarce resources, is also being used by those companies that have advanced to the highest stage of maturity in Supply Management.

Virtualization, the process of moving processes out of the physical world, is being employed by leading manufacturers (who will use a platform like Aravo’s) to determine the most efficient and cost effective process to produce a part as well as aircraft and car manufacturers (who will use advanced 3D modelling tools) to determine the most environmentally friendly or best performing design. But this too will be used more and more by leading Supply Management organizations to design the best supply chain to support the products and the business.

And when you get right down to it, no other organization in the corporation is in a position to make more use of these approaches than any other. That’s why, if the Resource Revolution is to come to pass, forward-thinking Supply Managers will have to lead the way, and become the corporate rockstars they always desired to be. (And put those motor-mouth marketers in their place.)

65 Years Ago Today the Microfilm Revolution Began!

65 years ago today, the first microfilm magazine was offered to subscribers. Newsweek, by offering its publication on microfilm, sparked a microfilm revolution and within a few decades, libraries everywhere were storing large collections of newspapers and magazines on tiny microfilm collections. This allowing libraries to maintain large collections of historical documents in limited space and was the precursor to the current digital revolution, which saw micro-films replaced with (optical) disks, which were soon replaced by storage area networks.

Screening Questions to ask Prospective Suppliers

A recent article over on Supply Chain Digital on “nine crucial questions to ask prospective suppliers” was in the right direction when it presented a small set of questions to screen prospective suppliers. Before inviting a supplier to an RFP, the following questions should be included on every RFI:

Can we have a copy of your Code of Ethics?
If the vendor doesn’t have one, or won’t give it to you, sound all the sirens and run for the hills. No organization can afford a publicity disaster these days.

Can you provide 3rd party proof that you live up to it?
It’s one thing to say you have an ethics policy, it’s another to follow it — and another yet to have true third party proof that you do. Make sure the certification is from a true third party and not from a small consortium of vendors that fund the certification agency.

Can we have a copy of your Quality Assurance Process?
If the vendor doesn’t have one, or won’t give it to you, then you need to ask yourself what kind of quality you can expect.

What certifications do you have with regards to this process? ISO? ASQ? etc.
If the vendor doesn’t have any certifications, how much faith can you put into the process the vendor is using?

Can you provide references from current AND former clients who did business with you for at least 2 years?
You don’t want references who have been with the vendor less than a year because the blush is still on the rose and they will be full of peace and love for the vendor. You need a real review from an experienced customer who can tell you what’s good and not so good. No vendor is perfect, and if the not so good is not relevant to your business, then their imperfection is irrelevant. Plus, if customers’ left, why? Was it due to a change in business? Or poor performance? If the customer left for due to a change in business, and they still have a good reference for the former supplier, then that speaks volumes. If the customer left due to continuously poor performance, that also speaks volumes.

Do you understand our business? Explain!

If the supplier has never supplied a customer in your vertical, and you have special needs, this could be an issue. It could also be an issue if they have never supplied a customer with special needs in your vertical or you have considerably different requirements than the average company in your vertical. Make sure the vendor has a good understanding of who you are as a company by asking this open ended question.

Who are your top competitors? Why are you better for us?

Everyone has competitors. If they don’t, then they are misguided or selling a product or service no one needs. There are no Blue Oceans any more, just open oceans that are only sparsely sailed (by a few companies who are eager explorers). Make sure they give you a few real competitors as well as a good reason as to why they are better, as this will serve to not only enforce their answer to the previous question (and let you know if they really understand your business) but let you know that they have attempted to be honest in their assessment.