Category Archives: Market Intelligence

The (Board) Gamer’s Guide to Supply Management Part IX: Small World Part 2

In Part V of our original series2, we introduced you to Small World, a delightful game from Days of Wonder (iOS Version available) that, in the words of Wil Wheaton, combines the military strategy of Risk with the delightful art and fantasy races of Cosmic Encounter. Except its more dynamic than Risk, and more variable than Cosmic Encounter, because while the races and powers are fixed, the combinations are not. [There are 14 races and 20 powers, or 280 different possible pairings. Plus, the pairings are ordered, and if a player does not select the pairing made available to him during his turn, he must spend 1 gold for each pairing, up to 5, that he wants to skip, which not only impacts his ability to accumulate the most victory points and win the game, but improves the selections available to the next player, who may gain one or more victory points by selecting a skipped pairing. So, if you do the math, there are P(20,14) possible power-race combination orderings, which is equal to 3,379,030,566,912,000 possible distinct games when orderings are taken into account!]

So what does this have to do with supply management? As per SI’s original post, Wil could just have easily have said Small World combines the military strategy of Risk with the marketing strategies of an MBA program. Whoever has the most money at the end of the year wins. We earn money by conquering and maintaining market territories. Empty, blue ocean, territories cost two units to conquer. Every competitor or obstacle in a territory costs one more unit to conquer. At the beginning of every game, each player will choose a primary market strategy, like brute advertising force, niche marketing, or price-undercutting, and combine it with a perceived marketing advantage such as a big war chest, coveted partnership, or new manufacturing process that allows production costs to be drastically slashed. The primary market strategy and perceived marketing advantages change every game. And therein lies the connection. Small World is a good introduction to how your supplier’s sales and marketing force is going to try and counter, and undermine, your every effort to procure and manage supply at a fair and sustainable price (as profit is the name of their game, not cost control). Today we are going to dive into the races and powers and solidify that connection.

The races1 in small world can be mapped to the different personality types in an organization that, directly or indirectly, support, or limit, the sales organization. Consider the following:

  • Amazons: A nation of all-female warriors in Greek mythology, these warriors seem to multiply in battle. They’re like the accounts receivables clerks who come out of the woodwork to descend on your deadbeat customers en-masse.
  • Dwarves: The mythical miners from the popular fairy tale, they’re the professional arbitrators who excel in dark rooms and endless negotiations.
  • Elves: The long-lived long-ears from the world of Tolkien who are almost immortal, they’re like the IRS auditors who never die.
  • Ghouls: Like the accounting trolls in Accounting popularized in Dilbert comics, they are the immortal accountants.
  • Giants: Like the feared giants of medieval times, the rich C-Suite, when they are on top, can conquer others with less effort.
  • Halflings: Like the burrowing hobbits, these 3rd party independent consultants pop-up out of nowhere and take over part of the project, and there’s nothing you can do about it.
  • Humans: Like the born-and-bred farmer who is a master of his fields, these account managers excel at up-selling your existing customers.
  • Orcs: Like the toll-extracting orcs of myth, these high-performing salesman excel at getting the big deal, by force if need be.
  • Ratmen: Think lawyers. ‘Nuff said.
  • Skeletons: Like mythical skeletons, these marketers multiply every time they conquer a new territory.
  • Sorcerors: Like real sorcerors, the members of your corporate intelligence team uses espionage and influence to convert insiders to win a deal.
  • Tritons: Like the legendary masters of the sea, these logistics managers rule the sea trade.
  • Trolls: Like the gate-keeping trolls, these on-site consultants — once they are embedded in your culture — are almost impossible to get rid of.
  • Wizards: Just like the wizards could conjure something out of nothing, these analysts can conjure actionable intelligence out of random data bits.

And the powers can be mapped to different skills that can give your race an advantage:

  • Alchemist: In the old days, these magicians turned metal into gold just like your smooth-talking salesman turn feature requests into profitable change orders.
  • Berserk: Just like these warriors sometimes gained sudden bursts of strength before every battle, your evangelists can sometimes beat the competition even when the odds aren’t in your favour.
  • Bivouacking: Just like invading armies would sometimes build encampments to fortify their defenses, your account managers are masters at placing on-site consultants to fortify yours!
  • Commando: Like the marines, your analytics team, with more training than your competition, can beat the market hands down with fewer resources (allowing you to outperform your peers).
  • Diplomat: Your customer relations are so good, no one can encroach upon your customer base! Your smooth-talking sales team should be in public office!
  • Dragon Master: One of your CXOs is a legend in the space, and never loses the one battle he chooses to engage in, just like the mythical warrior who rode the dragon never lost.
  • Flying: Your command of the air, also known as your no-limit travel pass, gives you a larger territory in which to trade.
  • Forest, Hill, Swamp: Just like certain people are suited for certain terrains, your sales team does better in certain verticals than others (and makes a lot more money from a lot less effort).
  • Fortified: Just like conquering armies would sometimes build an almost impenetrable fortress from which they could rule their newly conquered land, you can dedicate your efforts on a marquis account and become so embedded therein that the account becomes almost impossible to steal.
  • Heroic: Just like mythical heroes could’t be conquered, the efforts of your two best sales teams, and their House of Lies, are unparalleled and can’t be challenged.
  • Merchant: Like the great merchants of legend, you make more profit on every sale than the people you are trading with.
  • Mounted: Just like a mounted army was more effective than one on foot, your big data advantage crushes the uninformed competition.
  • Pillaging: Just like the Vikings would loot, when you conquer an account you always find integration and data maintenance efforts that double your profit.
  • Seafaring: Just like the most successful merchants in ancient times always rules the seas, your command of the sea allows you to trade where others can’t.
  • Spirit: Just like spirits never die, your on-site consultants are so knowledgeable in their domain that even when a competitor manages to sell their product, your consultants are still maintained for their expertise and you play on.
  • Stout: Just like the army of anubis never needed rest, neither do your sales team who can swoop from one deal to the next without need for a recharge. They live on caffeine, adrenaline, and victory!
  • Underworld: The domain of the lawyers. ‘Nuff said.
  • Wealthy: Just like the tomb raiders of old, you come into sudden wealth when that one client decides to shift all its consulting to you.

It’s a small world
But it’s the only one we’ve got
Huey Lewis

1 For this post, we are limiting ourselves to discussion of the 2nd Edition of the original Small World and not Underworld, Realms, or the various expansions such as Cursed and Be Not Afraid!

2 The original series:
Part    I: Ticket to Ride
Part   II: The Settlers of Catan
Part  III: Munchkin
Part  IV: Castle Panic
Part   V: Small World
Part  VI: Zombie Dice, Tsuro, and Get Bit!

… and the new series to date:
Part  VII: Upon a Salty Ocean
Part VIII: Agricola

Top 12 Challenges Facing India in the Decades Ahead – 06 – Health Care

As per our post on poverty, health care is a substantial problem in India. Not only does India have the 9th lowest life expectancy among the 16 countries outside of sub-saharan Africa that are poorer than it is, but is also has the 10th lowest infant and under-5 mortality rates and the second worst proportion of children under 5 who are undernourished! Then, as per our last post on education and opportunity, at leaset 93% of the workforce has no health insurance in a country leaning heavily towards privatized health care.

And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Almost 40% of all deaths in India are still due to infections! (Source: Health and Health Care in India by UCL) The majority of the remainder are due to non-communicable conditions such as cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory disorders, and cancers. (Compared to the developed world which manages most chronic respiratory disorders and some of the cardiovascular diseases so well that the patients often die from other causes.) In comparison, the only type of death due to infections to break the top 10 in Canada is death due to influenza and pneumonia which strike down 1.6% of the population to grab the 9th spot. In other words, the number of deaths in India due to easily treatable infections is at least 20 times higher than it should be!

India currently spends about 1.2% of GDP on publicly funded healthcare, an amount considerably less than most other comparable countries. In comparison, health care spending clocks in at 5.1% of GDP in China and Russia and 9% in Brazil! (Total spending on health care, including all private spend, is about 4%, but the private spending is mainly by the rich.) Due to this limited funding, and the substantially insufficient funding allocated to the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) (as outlined in our post on Poverty), 400 Million to 600 Million of the poorest Indians do not get access to the essential medicines they need. When you also consider that India is now the worlds 3rd largest producer of medicine by volume, the absurdity of the situation really comes into the spotlight.

And progress is slow. Even if the extension of the Government’s National Common Minimum Programme, announced by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on the country’s 66th Independence Day achieves its goal and provides access to free public health care to over half of the population by 2017 (as opposed to the fifth who currently have access) via the country’s 160,000 sub-centers, 23,000 primary health care centers, 5,000 community health centers, 1,000 sub-district hospitals, and 600 district hospitals, that will still leave hundreds of millions of Indians without access to even the most basic of health care services. (Furthermore, the proposal that the Federal Government would directly fund 75% of the relatively limited cost of extending the generic medicines supply to the public health service doesn’t go far enough. At least one third of the population cannot afford to pay even 25% of the cost of generic medicine, which, as it is produced in India, represents relatively little cost to the Government.)

And even though 160,000 sub-centers might sound-impressive, the requirements for a sub-center is one Auxiliary Nurse Midwife (ANM) and one Male Health Worker. That’s it. Not even a full nurse. You only find those in Primary Health Centers, Community Health Centers, and Hospitals. In addition, the primary health centers (PHC) also tend to be minimally staffed. They are only required to have one medical officer (doctor) who is supported by an average of 14 paramedical and administrative staff, in total, and, at current numbers, support a population base of 50,000 people! Furthermore, a community health center, which has to serve approximately 200,000 people on average, typically only has four medical specialists (a surgeon, general physician, gynaecologist, and paediatrician). Plus, per capita, the number of physicians is quite low. Right now, India clocks in at roughly 6.5 per 10,000 people (and many of the doctors are in the hospitals), while Canada has 20.7 and the United States has 24.2. (Source, KFF) Also, while India has roughly 1,600 hospitals to serve 1,237 Million people, the United States has almost 6,000 to serve 314 Million people. In other words, there are 15 times as many people per hospital in India as there are in the United States. (770,000 citizens per hospital in India vs 52,000 per hospital in the United States)

Health Care is a huge problem and one that desperately needs to be solved. After all, if your population is not healthy, how can you expect to give it a good education if it’s worrying about being well enough to study? And if you cannot educate it, how can you ready it to take advantage of any opportunity that may give it the hope of lifting itself out of poverty, something which must be done to increase the tax base enough to build the required infrastructure to support the fierce competition of today’s global economy?

The (Board) Gamer’s Guide to Supply Management Part VIII: Agricola


It’s 1671, the plague that has raged for the last 323 years has finally been overcome, and you and your spouse are a simple farming couple living in a two-room hut somewhere in (very) rural Austria. Your goal is to improve your quality of life by improving your home, expanding your fields, and multiplying your animals (to sell in the nearby markets).

In Agricola, you do this over a 14-round game where each of your family members can take exactly one action (that has not yet been taken) in a round. In this round you can acquire resources such as wood and clay, harvest your crops, acquire livestock, or expand your family. Each of these actions will need to be taken, but must be timed appropriately You cannot expand your family before you can house (and feed) another mouth (or one or more family members will have to beg), but you cannot plant and harvest more crops without more family members. As a result, some actions will almost need to be paired and you will have to plan action sequences in order to not only survive the game, but win. The winner is the player who builds the best overall farmyard (which is judged on a variety of factors which include fields, pastures, stables, crops, animals, homestead, and improvements).

In this post we will discuss the basic “family game” play, which leaves out some of the more advanced components, as you will need to master the basic game before moving on to the more advanced one. (Just like you have to master the basics of multi-round sourcing sourcing negotiations before trying to do real-time optimization-powered auctions after a multi-round RFX to qualify the final bidders.) The difference is that occupation and minor improvement cards are left out and only the major improvement cards are used.

You start the game with 2 units of food if you are the starting player, and 3 otherwise. You can get more food from the harvest that comes at the end of rounds 4, 7, 9, 11, 13, and 14. (Just like in the real world, crops take time and you can’t harvest immediately after planting.) Food is produced from raw grain and vegetables, and grain and vegetables can be converted to food one-to-one at any time. (If you have a hearth, you can convert vegetables at better than a 1 to 1 ratio.)

Each round without a harvest has four phases:

  1. Begin: Flip over a new round card that makes a new action available.
  2. Replenish: Acquire new goods and food from any previous actions that have a recurring result.
  3. Work: In sequence, each player puts a family member to work by assigning an available action to them, which they will take. The action may yield an immediate or future result.
  4. Go Home: At the end of the round, the family members have finished their assigned tasks and go home.

If the round has a harvest, there are three more phases:

  1. Field: players remove one food unit from each sown field and places it
    into their personal supply
  2. Family Feeding: each player must feed each family member who was born in this round 1 food and each other family member 2 food; a player who does not have the food has to beg and borrow food, but that comes at a cost of 3 points (think 3 food units) in the future
  3. Breeding: any player with at least 2 animals of the same type may breed 2 animals to receive exactly one additional (baby) animal of the same type, provided there is space in that person’s farmyard for the animal

The following actions are always available:

  • Extend Your Hut or Stables : you can extend your wooden hut, ore renovate your wooden hut into a clay hut or your clay hut into a stone house if you have enough reed and wood, clay, or stone to do so. Alternatively, you can build stables to keep (more) animals
  • Extend Your Family: if you have more rooms in your hut than you have family members, and less than five family members, then you can add one offspring to your family (to put to work in later rounds)
  • Tend Your Fields or Bake Some Bread: you can plow an unplowed field, sow one or more plowed fields with grain or vegetables, or (if you have a fireplace, hearth, stone, or clay oven) convert grain to food
  • Raise Your Animals: in order to raise animals, a player must fence pastures or build stables (in a pasture),

Additional actions that may become available during the game (in the form of major improvement cards) include:

  • The Well: produces extra food (as your fields are better irrigated you produce more crop that becomes food)
  • Fireplace: allows you to convert grain, vegetables, and animals to food
  • Cooking Hearth: allows you to convert grain, vegetables, and animals to food
  • Basket Weaver: allows reeds to be converted to food
  • Stone Oven: bake bread from grain
  • Cabinet Maker: makes cabinets from wood that are traded for food
  • Pottery: makes pottery from clay that are traded for food

It’s just like managing an industrial farm at the back-end of agricultural supply chains. The amount of crop you can produce depends on how many fields you have, how many people you have working those fields, and how capable you are at optimizing the output, but the amount of fields you have available and the amount of people to tend those fields depends on how many of those fields need to be used for, or grow food for, the animals you are raising to supply meat to your customers who want grain, vegetables, and meat to stock their shelves and freezers. A field can only be used for one thing at a time, a person can only do one farm task at a time, and those farmhands need to be paid and fed. You have to balance supply with demand with profit and need. If you train your people, they can be more productive, but it costs time and money to do so (and maybe they’ll quit and go work for your competitor). And if you go into debt, the interest accumulates quickly because you’re essentially borrowing from legalized loan-sharks due to your low profit margins and limited clout.

And winning isn’t just profit, it’s sustainability and depends on a number of complex factors that influence your performance over time.

Are you the best agriculture supply chain manager? Play Agricola, challenge (up to four of) your teammates, and find out!

Basware: P2P for the Global “E” Part IV

In today’s post, we continue our introduction to Basware, a Finnish provider of enterprise finance solutions that serves the global e-Commerce, P2P, and AP Automation marketplace with over 2,000 international customers that collectively do business with over 1 Million companies in over 100 countries. In Part II we discussed the AP Automation and Invoice Processing solutions, the full Purchase-to-Pay process coverage from the Procurement and AP perspective, and the full compliance with e-Commerce, Taxation and Digital Signature Requirements that they offer in over 50 countries. Then, in Part III, we discussed the Basware Commerce Network (BCN). An open commerce network that connects almost 1 Million companies in over 100 countries through 170 partner networks, the BCN currently delivers over 60 Million e-invoices per year with a combined value in excess of $420 Billion and Basware expects to be processing over 150 Million e-invoices a year by the end of 2015 with a combined value in excess of $1 Trillion dollars. Part of this increase will be as a result of Basware’s new partnership with Mastercard, which provides suppliers’ a guaranteed payment once the invoice has been approved, and an early payment option as well. In addition, buyers can have extended payment time if they need it. In addition, cross-border payments, which take over a week on average, are simplified and generally executed at a reduced cost to both parties.

Today we are going to focus on their analytics capability, called Basware Analytics. Basware built their analytics platform on top of Tableau Software‘s Data Visualization Engine, a high-performance data engine designed to allow for real-time data analysis, visualization, and reporting. Using this engine as a foundation, they focussed on designing an analytics application that was useable by the average Spend Management professional and that presented that professional with over 80% of the information across the P2P cycle that a Spend Management professional needs immediately upon log-in.

Over time, Basware has built a suite of package reports that cover 80% of a Spend Management and Finance organization’s need for process and spend visibility to drive process efficiency. In addition, they provide a suite of templates that can be easily altered in such a way that, in most organizations, users are able to build reports that quickly cover most of the reporting needs not covered out-of-the-box within a few hours of deployment, and gradually build reports, possibly with the help of Basware’s services organization, that will let them achieve the remaining 20%.

The solution was designed from an AP and Procurement perspective and in addition to standard procurement reports which include, but are not limited to, total spend, geographical spend by organization or cost centre, top suppliers, top products, invoices received, procurement KPIs, and maverick spend, there are accounts payable reports which include, but are not limited to, invoices received, invoices received with or without a contract or PO, cash flow analysis, spend by supplier analysis, AP KPIs, AP Process and Cycle Times, and AP Financial metrics. Each report allows for real-time drill down and filtering on any dimension. Because the underlying analysis engine has been built to sit on top of all invoiced spend and related P2P data, the platform can address spend visibility, supplier performance, procurement performance, contract compliance, catalog coverage, cash forecasting and management, accounts payable and invoice management. With the visibility provided, you can dive into opportunity identification, process optimization, and rationalization.

Users can access the template behind any report and quickly customize it by adding or removing available dimensions, customizing filters, and tweaking the layout. A user can select which of the available data sources1 (which have been mapped to a common schema) she wants to use, specify the dimensions of interest (to build the cube), define the default ranges and allowable filters, choose the graph types, and modify the layout. The application supports all of the standard graphs and charts, including cloud charts (which is great for looking at search term history or the most common products and/or services being bought) and tree-maps, which give a quick visual representation as to which supplier, cost centre, product, etc. is accounting for the most (maverick) spend. It’s one of few, and most effective, implementations of cloud charts and tree maps that SI has seen to date.

The user does not require any technical skills to modify the templates to adjust or create new reports. This solution is optimal for giving more people within the organization real-time access to spend and process metrics, and allows the Procurement and Finance organizations to begin their spend analysis journey immediately. (In addition, if the user needs help or wants to add custom data sources, Basware has professional services personnel in North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific and offers a broad suite of support services, including supplier activation/onboarding, in 10 languages: English, Finnish, Swedish, Norwegian, Danish, Dutch, German, French, Spanish, and Portuguese.)

1 Even though reports are limited to Basware’s data sources out of the box, the customer has an option to extend the reporting solution to other data sources through the use of other Tableau Software tools leveraged by Basware.

Top 12 Challenges Facing India in the Decades Ahead – 07 – Education and Opportunity

If you remember our last post on poverty, you will note that we said that when India is compared to the 16 countries outside of sub-saharan Africa that are poorer than it, it doesn’t do well in any social indicator, with social indicators for Education being one of those indicators. In particular, it’s literacy rate among Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Burma, Cambodia, Haiti, Krygyzstan, Laos, Moldova, Nepal, Pakistan, Papua, New Guinea, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Vietnam, and Yemen ranks 9th for Males and 11th for Females (at 82.1% and 65.5%)! Not good. In comparison, the literacy rates in China (at 97.5% and 92.7%), Brazil (at 90.1% and 90.7%), and Russia (at 99.7% and 99.5%) are much higher in comparison, as are the literacy rates of most of its Asian neighbours.

But it’s educational challenges are not just limited to its literacy rate. The challenges also stem to the perception of the importance of education, especially at an early age, as a whole. In their newly published book, An Uncertain Glory, Dreze and Sen do a great job of outlining some of the significant challenges facing India in terms of education and literacy, challenges which start with the first five year plan created by the newly independent India back in 1951.

The first five year plan in 1951, even though sympathetic to the need for University education which it strongly supported, argued against regular schooling at the elementary level, favouring instead a so-called ‘basic education’ system, built on the hugely romantic and rather eccentric idea that children should lean through self-financing handcraft. It went on to say that ‘the tendency to open new primary schools should not be encouraged and, as far as possible, resources should be concentrated on basic education and the improvement and remodelling of existing primary schools on basic lines’. Other than an outright banning of education for the lower castes and Dalit, SI does not think one would find a better prescription for a return to the middle ages. (And what makes this especially sad is that India, in the 4th Century AD, more than 600 years before the first European University was founded in Bologna, had one of the first big Universities at Nalanda. This University, run by a Buddhist foundation and supported by Hindu kings, drew students from all over Asia, and, at its peak in the seventh century had over 10,000 students in its dormitories.)

But it’s not just the outlook on education that’s the problem, it’s the delivery. In a nation-wide school survey conducted by the PROBE (Public Report On Basic Education) team in 2006, only two thirds of the students were present on the day of the survey (according to the school registrars) and even fewer according to the field investigators’ direct observations. In addition, there was considerable absenteeism of teachers as well, in addition to widespread late arrival and early departure problems. Given that 12% of schools had only 1 appointed teacher at the time of the survey, any teacher absenteeism at all is a huge problem. Furthermore, on the day of the survey, 21% of the schools were operating as single teacher schools and, to make matters worse, half of the schools had no teaching activity at all at the time of the investigators’ unannounced visit! (Why? Due to the relatively high salaries accorded to appointed teachers, there is a reluctance to make appointments. In addition, appointed teachers typically have the equivalent of tenure and there is little oversight.)

Officially, there are supposed to be about 200 school days per year. But with a teacher absenteeism rate that was found to be about 20%, a pupil absenteeism rate of about 33%, the chance of both a pupil and a teacher being present on the same day is about 50%. Then there is the chronic problem of a lack of teaching activity and the fact that a given student only gets taught about half the time the student and teacher are both present on a teaching day. The net result is that the average student gets about 50 teaching days per year, or one fourth of what the student would get in a well-functioning school system!

For a considerable portion of the population, the words of Nobel Laureate Rabindranath Tagore (1913, Literature), spoken in an interview with Izvestia in 1930, still ring true. In my view the imposing tower of misery which today rests on the heart of India has its sole foundation in the absence of education. Because, as Dreze and Sen point out in their work, in a society, particularly in the modern world, where so much depends on the written medium, being illiterate is like being imprisoned, and school education opens a door through with people can escape incarceration.

This lack of education is a big contributor to the Unemployment problem in India. (After all, how can you even apply for any meaningful work in our modern economy if you can’t even read and write?) While the official unemployment rate is 9.9% (as per a press release from the Labour Bureau of the Government of India), the problem is much, much worse than that. (How can it not be when over two thirds of your population has to survive on less than $2 US dollars a day?) Consider the recent example of SBI, the nation’s biggest bank, who in April of last year decided they wanted to recruit 1,500 employees and received over 1,700,000 applications?

While the Indian economy did create approximately 60 Million jobs between 2000 and 2005, during the forefront of the outsourcing craze, it did not create more than 2.8 Million between 2005 and 2010 (as per the Institute of Applied Manpower [IAM]). And while the loss of jobs in the agricultural sector was absorbed in the construction sector, the IAM estimates that 5 Million construction jobs were lost between 2005 and 2010. In addition, 93% of the Indian workforce is interim or informal and receive no health insurance, retirement pension, or basic benefits. As a result, the real unemployment statistic is estimated by experts (Source: WorldCrunch) to be around 20% and doesn’t include the interim or informal workers, especially in rural areas or employed in season sectors, who are underemployed.

And the problem is likely to get even worse. The population in India is still increasing, and in order to maintain the current levels of employment, India needs to add about one million jobs a month, but only managed to add about 50,000 a month between 2005 and 2010, one twentieth of the required number! An educated population could at least try to seek work elsewhere, or, like the services sector, compete to bring more work in. An uneducated population, on the other hand … well, ask South Sudan, Afghanistan, or Niger how an utter lack of literacy is working out for them! (Or even Belize, Bangladesh, or Syria — with slightly higher literacy rates, but still quite low with respect to the developed world.)