Category Archives: Market Intelligence

Top 12 Challenges Facing India in the Decades Ahead – 12 – Infrastructure

When it comes to infrastructure in India, as Business-in-Asia.com notes, it really is A Long Road Ahead. China really is decades ahead of India in terms of its transportation and communication infrastructure. In India, airports, rail networks, roads and ports are all in desperate need of repair, expansion, replacement, and, in some regions, creation! As Manish Agarwal stated in A Passage to Modern India (PDF) in the Summer, 2013 issue of Gridlines, decades of underinvestment have left the country with dire deficits in such critical areas as railways, roads, ports, airports, telecommunications and electricity generation. In the World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Report for 2011-2012, India ranked 89th out of 142 countries for its infrastructure. In this light, it’s remarkable that India is ranked 9th in (nominal) GDP by UN, IMF, and World Bank!

Roads are terrible. In a country where 65% of all freight is transported by road, this is a supply management nightmare. In fact, the traffic situation is so severe that the maximum highway speed for trucks and buses is only 30-40 km per hour! (As per a report of the Sub-Group on Policy Issues of the Government of India’s Ministry Road Transport and Highways, found on the Ministry’s Web Site.) And with the urban population expected to increase by 33% in the next five years, the situation is only going to get worse before it gets better.

Even if India succeeds in spending the 1 Trillion allocation it has committed to between now and 2017 — targeted at three airports, two ports, an elevated rail corridor in Mumbai, and almost 9,600 kms of road, the congestion eliminated will only be a drop in the bucket in a country with 87 airports that offer commercial service (Source: Wikipedia), 13 major and 187 notified minor and intermediate ports (Source: Wikipedia) of which 139 are operable (Source: India Core), 64,460 kms of rail (which is the fourth largest rail network in the world, source: Wikipedia), and 4,236,000 kms of road in 2011 (Source: Wikipedia). Thus, even if India managed to achieve its plan of building 20 kms of road a day, or 7,300 kms a year, that would only increase the total capacity by at most 0.17% annually, and do almost nothing to address the severe over-congestion plaguing the urban areas and major trade routes. Especially when India is adding about four million four-plus tire vehicles every year and about eleven million two-wheelers.

The airport situation is just as bad. Even though the country has 87 airpots with commercial service, the India Planning Commission estimates that the country will need an additional 180 airports in the next decade — so improving 3 is not going to do much! (See the 12th 5-Year Plan from 2012-2017, page 21.)

The port situation isn’t any better. As per IndiaCore, the current capacity at major ports is overstretched. The major ports together have a capacity of 215 million metric tonnes (MMT) at 1997- 98 levels (and 288 metric tons at 2001-2002 levels). However, the traffic for total ports in India was worth 740.3 MMT in 2009 and 818.7 MMT in 2010 and this is expected to rise to 1,373.1 MT in 2015 at a compound annual growth rate of 7.6% a year. In other words, throughput increased by a factor of 4 during the zeroes and is expected to increase another 50% by the end of 2015. However, investment in Indian ports in the zeroes was a mere 2.5 Billion. (Source: “Global Investments in Ports and Terminals” on HFW.com) To put this in perspective, the US West Coast ports are investing 12 Billion (Source: Pacific Merchant Shipping Association) just to handle a few more hundred MMT.

When you consider the inadequacy of the road, rail, air, and ocean transport networks, one has to wonder how India is going to cope with the expected annual rate of increase of 12% for domestic cargo and 10% for international cargo over the next five years, at the same time passenger traffic is expected to increase 12% annually domestically and 8% annually internationally. It’s a huge challenge, and one that’s not going to be solved anytime soon.

Apparently Accountants Have a Very Different Meaning for the Word Enormous

According to a recent article in Modern Material Handling (MMH), which reported on the Grant Thornton Realities of Reshoring Survey and quoted Wally Gruenes, Grant Thornton’s National Managing Partner for Industry and Client Experience, the results (of the survey) could dramatically impact U.S. trade balances, and should provide an enormous boost to domestic manufacturers, retailers, wholesaler/distributors and service providers. Great news, right?

Let’s dig in. According to the results of the survey, more than one-third of U.S. businesses are likely to move goods and services back to the United States in the next 12 months. In particular, 42% of executives indicated they were likely to bring back IT services, 37% said they were likely to bring back components/products, 35% said they were likely to bring back customer services or call centres, and 34% said they were likely to bring back (raw) material. Not exactly enormous, but not too shabby either. For one third of companies to at least be thinking in the right direction, that’s pretty good. Except when you dig in and realize that the numbers imply that as much as 5% of overall U.S. procurement may come back to the United States. 5% is not enormous! It’s not even close. And this is the best case scenario, which we know isn’t going to happen.

First of all, someone would have to get off of their @ss and push for a major change (and in your average company, meet a lot of resistance). This is something that only happens in market leaders, which we know are only (depending on which analyst firm you ask) the top 8% to the top 20% of the market. Secondly, a C-Suite executive, still focussed on quarterly numbers and penny pinching, would have to sign off on what could be moderately high one-time expenses associated with re-shoring — expenses which would be minimal in the mid-to-long term, but which would probably really irk the CFO in the short term (and mess up his attempt to look good for Wall Street). (And given the number of companies that have invested in training over the last 5 years, even though case studies from Procurement training institutes, including Next Level Purchasing, have proven ROIs of 10X to 100X from proper training investments, we know that few companies in North America put long term savings ahead of short term gains.) Thirdly, someone has to be willing to get a little egg on their face and admit that maybe outsourcing (so much) to China wasn’t that great of an idea in the first place — that if appropriate investments had been made at, or near, home to increase productivity, decrease production time (and cost), and improve operational sustainability, similar cost savings could have been made over the long term with an appropriate investment up front. How many pompous C-Suite executives in North America are willing to fess up and admit they were wrong? (Let’s put it this way, the Mad Men would be an awful lot poorer if more were.)

Long story short, if even 1% comes back this year, the doctor will join you in the dance of joy because he just doesn’t see it happening. He’d like nothing more than for 10% to come back, especially since he’s been preaching the importance of Home Cost Country Sourcing since 2007, but believes only the true market leaders will take any actions at all. Most companies just aren’t hurting enough to bother.

aPriori, rationi viam ad sumptus! Caput II

In yesterday’s post, we re-introduced you to aPriori, the masters of Enterprise Product Costing that have been working their cost reduction magic for a full decade, taking out mountains of cost before the first part is produced! We noted that, even though it’s been over half a decade, the masters of costing have stayed the course and are still focussed 100% on taking cost out during the design and production phases, where up to 80% of the cost of a product is locked in. They do this through complex process models, built on CAD geometry, that they embed in sophisticated VPEs (Virtual Production Environments) which are populated with accurate cost data for each material, machine, and overhead factor that contributes to the total production cost.

Today we want to highlight the major improvements made in the last five years.

Significantly More Production Process Models!

When SI first reviewed aPriori, their out-of-the-box capabilities were limited to metal-based parts only, and there were only a few dozen process models. Now they can handle virtually any metal and plastics component you can think of and support over two hundred production process models out of the box. In addition, they recently signed some very big name electronics manufacturers and are adding electronics process models to their repertoire, and a few of these will likely be available out-of-the-box this year.

Significantly More Virtual Production Environments!

Now that they have close to 100 customers across the Americas and Europe, that produce their components across the Americas, Europe, Asia, and even Africa, they have up-to-date cost models and accurate VPEs for every major geography out-of-the-box. An engineer, or buyer, can get a rough idea of production cost for any supported production process in any geography before even engaging with a supplier, who can, of course, provide even more accurate cost data specific to their factory.

Support for Every Standard CAD File Format and Just About Every CAD System

The more customers you get, the more CAD systems and file formats you have to work with. At this point in their evolution, aPriori now supports every standard CAD file format and every major CAD system currently in use in the manufacturing sector.

Improved UI

It looks better, responds faster, and integrates the best of CAD and OLAP. The main screen has three sections: the component view, the cost model, and the process model. Each displays the high-level information, but in each the user can drill down as deep as she desires.

Full Excel Export Capability

Not only can the user copy and customize process models and VPEs, update / override any cost, and save any scenario – but they can also export the full scenario and underlying cost model to excel for analysis, review, and distribution.

Powerful Comparison Reports

The user can compare multiple process models, and associated costs, for a part side-by-side, and, if desired, export the full comparison report to Excel.

Roll-Ups and Automatic Process Model Generation and Solution

A user can create a component-based production should-cost model that rolls-up the production should-cost model for each part and the system will automatically cost the full component using the individual part geometries and identified (or default) production processes and, if desired, the lowest cost production process for the entire component.

The improvements save their customers millions every year. For example, the construction equipment manufacturer that saved over 500K annually just on frame and door production also saves over 200K annually on cage rear pivot production. The manufacturer thought that machined casting w/x-Ray was the best way to produce the part, but the aPriori solution was able to determine that a two-step process that first burned the part farm from plate and then machined holed the cavities could reduce the cost from 16.56 to 10.05 on 22K cage pivots per year.

And it’s not just construction equipment manufacturers that save. Thermo King, which produces temperature and climate control products for the transportation industry, analyzed 5.679M in annual spend across 294 sheet metal parts and quickly identified a potential savings of 900K (16%) and realized 400K of this in just 12 days! And a a 6.5B manufacturer of commercial trucks that analyzed 7.7M Euro in spend across 86 sheet metal parts was quickly able to identify that 17 of the 86 parts were “outliers” (and nowhere near expected costs) and through additional analysis was able to identify better production methods that led to a confirmed savings of 1.6M Euro (21%).

It definitely helps to know your expected production costs aPriori!

aPriori, rationi viam ad sumptus! Caput I

When we last covered aPriori in 2007 and 2008 in aPriori and The Sourcing Maniacs 2008 Vendor Tour Part III, they were very focussed on Enterprise Cost Management (ECM) and taking cost out of the design phase. Fast-forward six years later, and nothing has changed, except, of course, the depth, breadth, and usability of their platform — which has grown in leaps and bounds.

Unlike traditional sourcing applications, including advanced spend analysis and decision optimization, that are limited to component cost-based should-cost models, aPriori can also factor in design and production factors to model the full production cycle of the part you are buying (if it’s metal, plastic, or, in some cases, electronics-based) and give you a true understanding of what the part should cost to make. The reality is that the cost of a part is dependent not only on its design, but on the production process employed. As noted in our first post, a supplier that’s always made a certain part a certain way might not realize that new technology or materials would allow them to make that part significantly cheaper if they used a different process. Since the aPriori application instantly and directly interfaces with your CAD program and interrogates the solid model to extract the geometric cost drivers, the aPriori application can automatically determine all the process routings that can be used to make the part, compute the costs associated with each step based upon standard machine, material, and labor costs, and compute the total cost of each part on a per unit basis by factoring non-geometric cost-drivers such as production volumes, the selected supplier or factory set-up selected, and the exact routing and machines used. This is because the aPriori application currently supports over 200 out-of-the-box process models in over 12 major process groups (including, but not limited to, Bar & Tube Fabrication, Casting, Forging, Machining, Plastic Moulding, Powder Metal, Roto & Blow Moulding, Sheet Metal Sheet Plastic, Stock Machining and Rapid Prototyping.

In addition, because the application supports the creation of complete VPEs (Virtual Production Environments) that encapsulate the production processes, a customer can fully model the production and overhead costs associated with each production process supported by a factory in question, including local labour, power, maintenance, and other overhead costs to create a fully accurate should-cost production model, which can be compared to alternate production processes in the factory and other factories modeled with an appropriate VPE. This allows for the true identification of the lowest cost because, as the Sourcing Maniacs documented in their vendor tour post, the COGS is a combination of raw material costs, labor costs, production overhead costs, and margin and these costs not only vary by locale and production process, but in their interaction. For example, just because you identify three ways to make a part and each requires three steps, this doesn’t mean that each process is going to be roughly equal in cost. Not only do different processes require different amounts of manpower or energy (for energy-intensive equipment like lasers, etc.), but reordering the steps can change the manpower or energy required in subsequent steps.

Let’s take, for example, the production of the main Frame sides and door for a piece of heavy machinery construction equipment. An aPriori customer was cutting the entire frame using a laser process. While this seemed efficient, as only one piece of machinery was required, cutting the entire frame and door using a laser cost them 75.54 per frame and door combination, and they required over 14,000 of these combinations a year. That’s over a million dollars on just one part! If, however, as discovered by aPriori who analyzed the geometry and ran it through every possible production process that was available to the manufacturer, they switched to a two-stage production process that involved an initial laser cutting of the frame and door followed by an NC Punch process to punch out the internal cavities, the time required to produce a single frame and door combination decreased by 14 minutes and the cost decreased by 56% to 33.29 (as laser cutting is expensive compared to NC punch).

So what’s new with aPriori? Come back for Part II.

Top 12 Challenges Facing India in the Decades Ahead – Prologue

India is the land of contradictions and, as outlined by Jean Dreze and Amartya Sen, it certainly does have An Uncertain Glory ahead of it. It could very well be the 2nd largest economy in the world by 2050, or it could slip out of the top ten and hover three quarters of the way down the top 20 list. Why?

Despite the fact that the Republic of India boasts the 2nd largest population in the world, and the fact that it boasts the largest number of English speakers outside of the United States (Source: Wikipedia) it currently faces more challenges than any emerging country, and certainly any emerging country in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), and on some metrics, ranks worse than some of the poorest countries in Africa!

While it does have a great opportunity before it, it also suffers from some of the greatest misfortunes of any country on the planet, despite the fact that it is, at the same time, probably the greatest example of democracy on the planet. Consisting of 28 states, 7 union territories and 3.288 Million square kilometers, India has 22 languages of official status in the eighth schedule to the Indian Constitution, 7 major religious groups (Hindu, Muslim, Christian, Sikh, Buddhist, Animist, & Jain), and caste based reservations as a result of the caste system that plagued India until the end of British rule! It also has 6 recognized national parties and 47 recognized state parties. (Imagine the difficulty of getting anything agreed on with that many different viewpoints butting heads!) To put this in perspective, in contrast, the United States, consisting of 50 states and 4 [unincorporated organized] territories, only has to deal with, at most, 2 major languages [English and Spanish] and almost 96% of Americans who declare religion are Christian. Furthermore, there are only 2 major parties and 3 minor parties (Libertarian, Green, and Constitution parties). So, the fact that India has survived, and grown (over the past thirty years in particular), as a constitutional democracy for 66 years is quite impressive.

But the fact remains that this constitutional democracy is plagued with problems and issues that have to be addressed, and solved, if the country is to continue to grow, and flourish in the coming decades, as some optimists are predicting. In the next twelve posts (over the next twelve weeks) in the series, SI will dive into twelve of the most prominent issues to present you with a clear picture of the major challenges that lie ahead of India in its quest to become the next great Asian superpower and the center of your global supply chain.

Stay Tuned!