Category Archives: Sourcing Future

PPT isn’t enough, you need EAI as well (NPX Deep Dive #1)

As many of you are well aware by now, a few weeks ago I attended The Mpower Group‘s Next Practices Xchange. A gathering of some of the top supply management personnel from a select group of Fortune 500 companies who met to discuss how to get to the next level of supply management, the NPX participants are leaders in their fields. On average, NPX members beat the field at the macro level at supply chain visibility, risk management, strategy execution, and value creation (at least according to a recent joint survey undertaken with the IACCM that will be explored in a future post).

But today’s best is not enough to sustain value in an increasingly competitive and economically challenging global marketplace, and the best of the best know it. The supply management leaders are already working hard to figure out how they are going to maintain their edge in tomorrow’s supply chain landscape. While there are still a number of questions to be answered, they know that the first step is to understand value, that the second step is to get to value, the third step is to capture value, and the fourth, and most critical step, is to step is to execute.

But execution is tricky. It’s more than just People, Process, and Technology (PPT) that consultants have been talking about for decades. It’s more than just the following framework, which isn’t enough.

 

People
Organization
Talent
use
Process
Strategy
Procedure
Tools and Templates
supported by
Technology
Infrastructure

 

It’s Exploration, Alignment, and Information. It’s the Adoption, Execution, Implementation, Optimization, and Utilization of the People, Process, and Technology to their fullest potential, as illustrated by the following framework:

 

Information
Visibility
Metrics and Reporting
Knowledge Management
undergoes
Alignment
Decision Process
Business Strategy
Change Management
by way of
Exploration
Learning
Coaching &Mentoring

 

Technology enables the processing of information which is used by good processes that support organizational alignment with the business by people who explore next generation supply management practices and techniques and take the business to the next level. PPT goes hand in hand with EAI and neither on their own will deliver EBR (Exceptional Business Results).

The importance of the vowels in next generation supply management, and the EAI framework they define, will be explored further in future posts. The reality is that best (PPT) framework in the world is useless if you don’t execute. So master the vowels and see your organization advance to the next level of supply management.

Ariba Vision 2020: I Hope It’s Just a Ruse!

This post addresses the four predictions in Ariba’s “Vision 2020 – The Future of Procurement” report that were totally off base. SI is not sure whey they came from as they’re not even close to any reasonable expectation of Supply Management reality in 2020.

05. Data predicts the future

Yeah, and monkeys might fly out of my butt!

We will never reach the point where we can be confident that a supplier’s performance will always fall within our customers’ requirements. We will never predict all defects. And we will never predict all disruptions before they happen. Predictive analysis will get better, our value models will get better, and supply chain reliability will increase, but it will never be perfect and never known in advance. Just like we likely won’t see true AI within our lifetime as current approaches just don’t cut it. (And if we do, the machines will realize how inferior we are, and as soon as we forget to encode Asimov’s three laws of robotics into a single robot, we’re doomed!)


Data, data everywhere
and all our minds will shrink
data, data everywhere
sanity on the brink

08. Outsourcing explodes

Actually, outsourcing will suffer a massive implosion as freight costs make moving goods globally prohibitively expensive and exploding labor costs in emerging economies make outsourcing key service functions more expensive than keeping them in-house in major metropolitan centers. What will actually happen is an emergence of Global Service Centers that are part of the organization and employ the right talent for the job at the right locales. Tactical functions will be executed in low cost locales. Strategic functions will be executed where the organization gets the most value. And while some functions will be outsourced to massive third party Global Service Organizations, they will be managed by a Global Service Center that will push out or pull in as market conditions dictate.

10. So long, sourcing geeks
Not by a longshot. While most tools will become so intuitive that even a novice will be able to execute most sourcing and procurement events, there will still be situations where advanced modeling and analysis will still be required and where only sourcing geeks with a keen understanding of the business needs and the strategic analysis required will be able to perform that analysis. While it’s true that the number of sourcing geeks needed may shrink in relative terms, the skill sets required by these geeks will actually increase.

12. Budget fuss fizzles out
As Woody Woodpecker would say, ha ha ha Ha ha, ha ha ha Ha ha, ha ha ha Ha ha, heh-heh-heh-heh-heh-heh-heh-heh-heh! Budget fuss is never going away. Finance drives the business and budgeting is so ingrained in financial professionals that there will always be fuss and muss. While more CPOs will be involved in the budgeting process since day one, they will still have to make their case over and over and over again, no matter how obvious it is.

This ends our review of the 31 predictions in Ariba’s “Vision 2020 – The Future of Procurement” report. Our next, and final, post will discuss the report as a whole.

Ariba Vision 2020: Close, But No Cigar

This post addresses the four predictions that came close to the mark in Ariba’s “Vision 2020 – The Future of Procurement” report. For the most part, they were just a little too hopeful.

02. Intelligence moves into context

Intelligence will move into context, and be front and center in leading supply management organizations, but will not be a substitute for Supply Management Professionals with expertise in risk and economics and target markets. Just like a dashboard can only alert a user to a known issue, automated monitoring solutions can only alert a user to known risk indicators. Political uprisings, natural disasters, and financial failures (due to a loss of one or more major contracts when a supplier is operating on razor thin margins) can still come without any obvious warnings and only a sourcing professional who is carefully monitoring the country, the news, and the supplier will be able to detect a significant event before, or, in the worst case, as soon as it begins.

06. Prices go transparent

Price transparency will continue to increase to the point where most prices for most products and services will be known to within a few points most of the time, but there will be limitations in accuracy, just like there will be limitations in systems’ ability to predict risk and market changes. Unexpected natural disasters, political uprisings, enthusiastic traders, and government intervention will still create unexpected (artificial) supply shortages that materialize over night and wreak havoc on prices. In addition, shifts in consumer preference, organizational boycots, and new regulations will contribute to rapid demand decreases that will do the same.

11. SBUs absorb procurement

Strategic Business Lines will absorb most day to day Procurement and Supply Management functions, leaving the Supply Management organization to focus on strategic initiatives, long-term value generation, innovation, and business line consulting when and where it is needed. And tactical procurement functions might entirely disappear from procurement, being handled by service centers that support the various business lines. But Supply Management will still be needed to not only deal with strategic initiatives, but to handle special projects and unexpected situations when they arise. Since the strategic business lines will never by Supply Management experts, they will never truly absorb all of the Supply Management functions.

25. Early is the new black

Suppliers will be more heavily involved in NPD and will be involed earlier in the process, but it won’t always be on the ground floor. Suppliers have limited resources too and dragging them in to every project before the supply management professional has identified the value they can bring and the value they stand to receive will only result in strained relations. They’ll be brought in when the supply management organization feels the time is right, but it won’t always be early as that will be too speculative, and, in some cases, risky.

Close, But No Cigar

The next post will discuss the four predictions that were totally off base.

Ariba Vision 2020: Tomorrow’s Shoes (Part II)

This is the second of two posts that address the fourteen predictions that were dead on in Ariba’s “Vision 2020 – The Future of Procurement” report. Any Supply Management organization that recognizes the truth of these predictions is well on its way to formulating a plan to be a leading Supply Management organization in the decade ahead.

18. Offensive line takes the field

Supply Management professionals will increasingly use online communities and networks to discover, connect to, and collaborate with suppliers in a relentless pursuit of growth and expansion in line with the strategic goals of the company. Furthermore, the collaboration will be much more intensive and innovation focussed than it is today.

23. Buyer-seller lines blur

The focus will shift from the effective utilization of supplier functions to the effective integration of supplier functions to the point that integrated supplier functions will be almost indistinguishable from buyer functions. In leading organizations, the line will blur to the point where it is essentially nonexistent.

24. Innovation comes from without

As the paper says, the supply management role will be less about “person-who-brings-innovation-in” and more about “person-who-assembles-innovation-communities-and-gets-out-of-the-way”. Even at most companies that use innovation networks today, the innovation is still driven by the supply management professional that posts a problem in need of a solution. In the future, the networks will identify the problems and the solutions and then bring them to the supply management professional. Next generation web-based technology will bring the democratization of technology to new heights.

26. (Key) Suppliers gain power

Increasing reliance upon (key) suppliers is going to give them substantially more leverage in buyer-seller relationships, which is going to result in the supply management organization having to sell itself to the supplier as a customer of choice instead of the supplier having to sell itself to the supply management organization as the supplier of choice. And the more innovative the supplier, the harder the sell the Supply Management organization will have before it.

27. Firms share risks and rewards

The leading supply management organizations, that are incorporating incentives into their contracts today, will move to a shared risk and reward model where both parties share the rewards of a successful venture as well as the risks of the undertaking. No longer will contracts be lopsided in favor of the buyer that will be as reliant on the supplier as the supplier is on the buyer.

30. Risk info catches up

Risk management will take prominence in an average Supply Management organization which will have more access to readily available third party information (from networked communities where participants pool data for operational risk assessment) and be better poised to mesaure risk and formulate appropriate mitigations. Risk management will be embedded in every sourcing and contracting process and a key component in the calculation of expected value.

31. Profits replace cost savings

The shift in focus from cost to value will see most Supply Management organizations retire cost savings and instead institute profit generation as a primary measure of organizational success. Top line growth will be just as important as bottom line impact in an organization that wants to improve business outcomes overall.

The next post will address the predictions that came close to the mark, but did not hit it.

Ariba Vision 2020: Tomorrow’s Shoes (Part I)

This is the first of two posts that address the fourteen predictions that were dead on in Ariba’s “Vision 2020 – The Future of Procurement” report. Any Supply Management organization that recognizes the truth of these predictions is well on its way to formulating a plan to be a leading Supply Management organization in the decade ahead.

01. Everything is automated

This prediction is dead-on. Next Generation Supply Management shops are investing heavily in technology to automate all non-strategic and low-value supply management activities, leaving the sourcing professionals to focus on strategic and high-value categories where they can extract the most value for the organization.

07. Spend management shrinks

I’ve said it before, and I will say it again: Spend Matters Not. It’s not how much you spend, how you store it, how you cube it, or how you report on it — what ultimately matters is how much you get from it, profit from it, and derive value from it. Next Generation Supply Management organizations are focussed on improving business outcomes, not cutting costs until quality and stability of supply suffer. Spend Management will shrink as true Supply Management focussed on value takes its place.

09. Service providers excel

Given the increasing cost of outsourcing complex and strategic functions to emerging economies where labour rates are rising exponentially, in order to maintain cost competitiveness and deliver value, the service providers will provide service that constantly improves in efficiency and execution.

13. Let’s get financial

Since overall financial success will still be the ultimate measure of value generation in public enterprises, Supply Management will revolve around the financial supply chain and will be heavily involved in optimizing cash flows, working capital, and financing programs from NPD through return and disposal.

14. SM pros get sophisticated

Supply Management professionals will definitely be much more sophisticated in 2020 than they are today. As the secret agents that essentially drive all aspects of the business, their business savvy, analytical capabilities, relationship skills, and overall execution abilities will be, for the most part, a level above where they are today.

15. Supply pros expand expertise

This is the obvious result of a supply managmeent professional getting more sophisticated. It should not have been included as a separate prediction because it’s impossible to get more sophisticated in Supply Management without expanding depth of expertise in key areas.

16. Strategy scope widens

One does not get to the next level by maintaining a narrow focus, so it should also be obvious that the scope of strategy addressed by an average Supply Management organization is going to expand as well. The strategy will be more closely aligned with the needs of the organization’s end customers and be more cognizant of the needs of the current, and future, customer base. Supply Management will be increasingly called upon not only to analyze merger and acquisition possibilities, but to lead the initiative as success will depend upon succesfull integration of the end-to-end supply chains. And it will be involved in all NPD from day one to help identify customer needs and supplier capabilities before any decisions are made.

The next post will address the other seven predictions that were dead-on.