Category Archives: Economics

The (Board) Gamer’s Guide to Supply Management Part II: The Settlers of Catan

I’m very excited to continue this brand new summer series that will help you whether you are just interested in finding out about this new and exciting career opportunity or ready to take your Supply Management career to the next level. Learning Supply Management doesn’t have to be as fun as watching paint dry — it can be much more fun! And when you can grasp some of the basic concepts playing a strategic board game with your friends, it’s a blast.

While Settlers of America Trails to Rails (also put out by Catan) might be a better choice to follow Ticket To Ride, that we introduced in last week’s post, The Settlers of Catan is also a great game to include in our series, and, more importantly, there is another great TableTop episode, again hosted by the one, and only, Wil Wheaton In Exile on Twitter. And since the best way to learn a new game is to see it in action until you are familiar with other board games in the same vein, we’re going to take advantage of the priceless gift that Mr. Wheaton has given us.

In TableTop Episode 2, Wil Wheaton uses Settlers of Catan, a modern day classic that has sold hundreds of millions of copies, to introduce us to the joys of trading wood for sheep. What could be better?

As with Ticket to Ride, the rules are fairly simple. As explained by Wil:

We are settlers on the legendary island of Catan. The first person to reach 10 victory points wins the game. You get victory points by collecting and managing resources. You get resources when one of the settlements you have built is adjacent to a tile that has spawned a resource. We find out which tiles spawn resources every turn by rolling dice. No one will have enough resources on their own to build the roads, settlements, and cities they need to win the game. So we will all have to barter and trade with each other. Just like in real life, there are nasty surprises waiting for you. Whenever we roll a seven, the robber gets activated. He steals from you. We hate the robber. The robber is a dick. But if you get robbed, it’s not the end of the world. There are other ways to get victory points — having the longest road, having the largest army, or you can also trade in resources to buy [these] development cards (which may also give us victory points).

Sounds easy, right? So where is the difficulty? Some resources are more likely to be spawned than others, as each of the 18 non-desert hexes have different numbers associated with them from 2 to 12 (excluding 7), and, according to probability, hexes with sixes or eights are more likely to be rolled and spawn their resources. Plus, there are five different resource types (brick, wood, wheat, sheep, and stone), and each type of building requires multiple resource types. A road requires wood and brick; a settlement (worth one victory point) requires wood, brick, wheat, and sheep; and a city (which is built on top of a settlement and worth two victory points) requires two wheat and three stone. As such, you need to strategically position your settlements to maximize the chances of getting the resources you need, but you can’t place settlements just anywhere. They can only be at hex boundaries and there must be a road of length at least two between any pair of settlements on the board. Or, if you don’t have good placement opportunities for your settlements that would allow you to maximize your chance of getting resources (by placing the settlement on a corner between three hexes with decent roll probabilities), you can try to build on a port that gives you better than average trading opportunities. (In the game, you can always trade four resources of the same type for a resource of any other type with “the bank”*, but some ports reduce this to three for one, and some ports allow you to trade specific resources two for one. This is very useful near the end of the game when your opponents are unwilling to trade with you if they see you nearing victory.)

The only other relevant rules are that if you build the longest road (of length five or more), or amass the largest army (of three or more knights, which are mixed in with the development cards), you gain two victory points and if you are lucky enough to draw a monopoly card when you purchase a development card, you can play it down and every other player has to give you all cards of the resource type you name.** And if you roll the robber, everyone (including you) with 7 or more resource cards has to lose half, but you get to move the robber to any hex and steal a (random) resource from a player with a neighbouring settlement (or city).

So what are the parallels with Supply Management? In Supply Management:

We are Supply Chain Professionals doing business in the global marketplace. The first of us to secure and deliver all of the products and services we need to meet all of the customer demands wins the game. We secure the products and services we need by managing suppliers and reserving limited production and distribution capacity. We find out which resources are limited by watching the market and taking note of tumultuous events. In today’s marketplace, no supplier will be able to meet all of our component or service needs on their own, so we will not only have to barter and trade with multiple suppliers, but also with our competitors and their suppliers in tight markets. And there will be nasty surprises waiting for us. A natural disaster may wipe out part of the raw material supply or Somali pirates may seize a precious shipment. We hate the pirates. They are dicks. But if our shipments get robbed, it’s not the end of the world. There are other ways to serve our customers. We can use the insurance money to buy from someone else, we can redesign our products to use alternate materials, or we can focus on a new or different substitute product or service to get us, and our customers, through the worst of times.

And just like in Catan, some resources will be more readily available than others. We will need different resources (from different suppliers) to assemble our complex product and service offerings, strategic reservation of production capacity and distribution capacity will give us a major competitive edge over our competition, and the more international trading capability we have at our disposal, the better trades we are going to be able to make (as some countries value wheat, lumber, or brick more than others, depending on whether they are short on building materials or food). The more trade lanes we have access to, the more markets the organization can serve; acquiring a monopoly on a certain product or service in a region, even for a limited time, gives us a significant edge in negotiations (as long as it’s not in violation of local laws), and keeping individual shipment value down can limit losses in the event of a robbery.

So what does The Settlers of Catan teach us?

  • if we are gamers new to the subject matter, it teaches us that successful Supply Management requires a lot of skill as we have to balance investments in (new) product development (settlements and cities) and logistics capacity (roads); we have to optimize local distribution (inner placement) hand-in-hand with global distribution (port placement); and we have to try and keep our competitors from locking up too much of available capacity in critical trade lanes (longest road) or production (largest army) and, most importantly, that we will have to do a lot of negotiating to succeed.
  • if we are new Supply Management professionals looking to improve our Supply Management game, it allows us to practice our negotiation skills and see how the negotiations change depending on the supply/demand imbalance for the raw materials and our relative strength in the marketplace (as your opponents will typically be very open to trading with you to mutual advantage if they are in the lead but very reserved if you are in the lead and the trade is perceived as advancing you [closer] to victory).
  • if we are seasoned Supply Management veterans, it helps us understand the strength and weaknesses of different Supply Management strategies. For example, if we focus on inland building to maximize the chances of resource spawning every turn, we are giving up any chance to guarantee low-cost trades later in the game (as we will not be building on ports). And if we focus on the ports, while we may be able to trade many resources cheap, we may never acquire enough resources to trade. If we focus on pure settlement and city building, an opponent may be able to sneak in and win the game with only two settlements (2 points) and one city (2 points) if they took a development strategy and secured the longest road (2 points), largest army (2 points), and two victory point development cards (2 points). It allows us to work on our strategic planning skills and notice that for every strength we achieve with a strategy, there is always a weakness that can be exploited by our competition with the right counter-strategy. And the better we understand the strengths and weaknesses of our strategies, the better we can adapt them and monitor them over time.

It’s a great game, and if you can’t wait to get started, I have great news if you own an iOS device. Catan for iOS is available in the App Store — although I must admit its a bit hard to play on the iPhone/iPod touch as you constantly have to zoom in and out. Now go forth and settle!

* which is a term you Monopoly (which we will not be including in this series) players are familiar with
** which has the opposite effect of the Mod card in Uno Mod for you Uno players

Is it Time to Stop Blaming Governments and Start Blaming Economists for All the Economic Turmoil?

How many recessions has North America had in the last two decades? How long has the Eurozone crisis been going on? Does anyone know anymore? It’s been nothing but doom and gloom for years. Doom and gloom which immediately followed periods of growth that was too rapid or optimism that was too unfounded. What the heck happened?

We can blame the governments for failing to keep the currencies in check and failing to invest in innovation and jobs, we can blame the private sector for trying to rampage out of control, or we can blame the economists who give everyone bad advice. Maybe that’s what we should be doing. According to some very recent research, by Emre Soyer and Robin Hogarth, which is being published in a special section in the July-September 2012 issue of the International Journal of Forecasting, we have “The Illusion of Predictability” [preprint] (How Regression Statistics Mislead Experts) which can be succinctly summarized by saying “economists are overconfident [and] so are you” (as summarized by Justin Fox over on the HBR blogs).

Soyer and Hogarth did a study with 257 economists who were asked to read about a regression analysis that related independent variable X to dependent variable Y and then answer questions about the probabilities of various outcomes. When the results were presented in the typical manner (as average outcomes followed by a few error terms), the economists did a really bad job of answering the questions. They paid too much attention to the averages, and too little to the uncertainties inherent in them, thereby displaying too much confidence. Moreover, they did only slightly better when they were shown the numerical results plus scatter graphs. Only the economists who were shown only the graphs actually got most of the answers [close to] right.

In other words, when the data is presented in standard form, statistically literate experts are just as likely to glom (glom glom) onto the point estimate and discount the uncertainty as innumerate journalists and make the same mistakes. (They could use Pinky and the Brain’s refresher refresher lesson on statistics.) Ouch!

We in Supply Management know that the world is often much less predictable than economists would lead us to believe — having to deal with the effects of demand spikes, supply shortages, currency fluctuations, labour strikes, and natural disasters on a(n almost) weekly basis — and that no economic model is going to capture the full extent of the reality of the situation. It’s too bad that an average economist doesn’t, because if (s)he did, then maybe the advice wold be better, and the markets would, as a result of more rational actions, be more stable and make our job a little easier. In the interim, we can do our part by making sure that we help procure any services that require an economist or economic analysis and insure that such economist or group has a tendency for presenting, and analyzing data, the right way without unnecessary exuberance, one way or the other. Because this result, captured in the preprint, is scary:


72% of the participants believe that for an individual to obtain a positive outcome with 95% probability, a small X (X < 10) would be enough, given the regression results. A majority state that any small positive amount of X would be sufficient to obtain a positive outcome with 95% probability. However, in order to obtain a positive outcome with 95% probability, a decision maker should choose approximately X=47.

Simple math says that the majority of the participants were off by a factor of 5 (or more). Ouch! Late last year the BBC ran a point of view article that said we should beware of experts when it comes to running things. Maybe they were right!

the doctor’s Top 10 Cities for Supply Management Centres of Excellence (Where Should Your Supply Management Organization Be Located? Part V)

Yesterday, I gave you the top 10 mega-regions in which to locate your Supply Management Centre of Excellence, and indicated the major cities in each region that should top your list. For those of you keeping count, I listed 46 cities. If you’re indecisive, that’s a lot of cities to choose from! So, today, I am going to give you the doctor‘s top 10 cites for your Supply Management Centre of Excellence and his rationale!

Rank City Mega-Region Rationale
10 Dallas The Dallas Triangle The telco corridor. Oil and gas USA. Just a few hours north of Silicon Hills. Finance. More Fortune 500 headquarters than any other city in the USA. The centre-point of the largest metropolitan area in the south and the fourth-largest metropolitan area in the USA. East-West and North-South focal point of the interstate highway system — get anything, anywhere, anytime. One of the largest, and busiest, airports in the world (so you won’t miss Chicago). Sports, sports, and more sports. The world famous Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders. People named JR. A great education system. Birthplace of Amy Acker, who, before taking the Whedonverse by storm, made sure that those of us who were adults with young children didn’t get the short end of the Wishbone.
9 Frankfurt The Frankfurt-Gärtringen Corridor The stock exchange, renewable energy, great transportation and telecommunications infrastructure, and German engineering! And let’s not forget Frankfurther Rindswurst. Woot! Woot!
8 Rio de Janeiro The Rio de Janeiro to Sao Paulo corridor It’s not the CRIB, it’s the BRIC, and it starts with Brazil. It’s the emerging South American powerhouse, which is the most visited city in the southern hemisphere (and home to Carnival), on the coast, and surrounded by a great transportation infrastructure. It is the headquarters of many state-owned companies, the centre of the oil and gas industry in Brazil, and the second largest industrial producer in the country. Foxconn, who produces all of Apple’s iPads and iPhones is down the corridor in Sao Paulo, so you know that Brazil, and Rio de Janeiro, is here to stay as a major player in global trade.
7 Paris Greater Paris La ville des lumières. La ville de l’amour. La vie en rose. Audrey Tautou. La mode, l’architecture, et la philosophie. Quoi d’autre avez-vous besoin?
6 Seoul Greater Seoul A megacity with a population over 10 Million, it is the largest city proper in the OECD developed world, that is home to major multinational conglomerates and one of the world’s top ten financial and commercial centres. A very technologically advanced infrastructure and an openness to the Western Way of doing business. Architecture, fashion, and culture extrude from every crevice. And it’s home to the Wonder Girls of K-Pop. How can you go wrong?
5 Amsterdam Amsterdam – Brussels – Antwerp Central European location, an almost universal understanding of English, great international relations, strong fashion and tourism industries, architecture, and culture (even excluding its world famous Red Light District). Plus, lots and lots of conventions — no travelling required!
4 London London – Leeds – Chester More visits from The Doctor than any other place on earth (and the most likely city to be the first to participate in intergalactic trade). On a more current note, the LSE, the fashion scene and haberdashery shops, and the entertainment industry draw all shapes and sorts of creative talent. Plus, it gave us The Clash and Generation X. What more can you ask for?
3 Tokyo Greater Tokyo Domo arigato gozaimashita! You have to interact with a lot of people everyday. And not all of these people are polite. Why not go somewhere politeness reigns? Plus, it’s the home of Sanrio (hello kitty) and the J-Pop explosion. How can you go wrong? (Oh, and the financial clout, hi-tech infrastructure, and the wide range of cultural pursuits from ikebana and origami to shopping and whiskey, doesn’t hurt either.) And if that’s not enough, anime, manga, and gaming central! (If you think Gibson is inspired, just wait until you read Masamune Shirow!)
2 New York Boston – New York – Washington Corridor If you’re gonna be in Supply Management for the long haul, you gotta have Heart. And since New York is The Heart of Rock & Roll, it’s as good a place as any to start. Plus, the easy access to capital doesn’t hurt!
1 Los Angeles The California Coast Despite our desire to move to a paperless office, we still have to deal with a mountain of paper every day. Purchase Orders, Goods Receipts, Invoices, Import Forms, Export Forms, RFXs, etc. etc. So why not base your Supply Management organization in the home city of Wil Wheaton, the guy who made collating paper cool!

Commodity Prices Have Exceed the Peak of World War I

And it doesn’t look like they are going to decrease any time soon. But more importantly, recent analysis by the McKinsey Quarterly indicates that commodity prices will remain high and volatile for at least the next 20 years. As per this recent article in the McKinsey Quarterly on “a new era for commodities”, demand for energy, food, metals and water will continue to rise inexorably as three billion new middle-class consumers emerge in the next two decades.

And the changes will be significant. As per the article, the global car fleet will double by 2030. Calorie intake per person in India will increase 20%, per capita meat consumption in China could increase by 60%, and urban infrastructure demand will soar in both countries. A hundred years ago, this was not that big of an issue as improvements in exploration, extraction, and cultivation techniques kept the world ahead of ever-increasing global needs. But today, the potential climatic impact of carbon emissions associated with surging resource use limits exploration and extraction because we’re already at a level where global carbon emissions are significantly above the level required to keep increases in the global temperature below 2° Celsius — the threshold which has been identified as potentially catastrophic. Plus, current cultivation technology is pretty much at its limit as only so much food can be grown in a fixed space.

And everything is connected. The ripple effects of water shortfalls at a time when 70% of water is consumed by agriculture and 12% is consumed by energy production can be catastrophic. For example, in Uganda, water shortages led to escalating energy prices which led to the use of more wood fuels which led to deforestation and soil degradation that threatened the agricultural food supply.

As a result, for the short term, commodity prices are going to stay high and your organization had better be prepared.

Five Steps to Long-Term Growth – Huh?

Even though I was browsing the HBR Bogs, I was still a little surprised to see a post titled “Five Steps to Long Term Growth” because, to be honest, thanks to Wall Street, I didn’t think anyone knew what Long-Term Growth meant anymore. And I’m being serious here. The focus on quarterly earnings calls has gotten so intense that it’s almost obscene — the nosedive a stock takes in the market after a bad earnings call is typically so severe that one would think the world is going to end.

Not only did this intense focus on short-term profit cause the end of the famed research labs in the 1990s (like Bell Labs, Xerox Parc, Texas Instruments — and yes, I know that Bell, PARC, and TI still exist, but what we have today is not what we had then), two major market busts in the naughts (as everyone tried to IPO at unsustainable valuations), and the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs (because people cost money and it’s more profitable to operate at skeleton crew levels and make everyone, in fear for their jobs, work unpaid overtime than actually be responsible and use the obscene amounts of profit the corporation is making to actually hire the headcount the organization should have), but it pretty much spelled the end of any thought to growth plans beyond the next year in the corporate boardroom – at least as far as I can see.

Of course, it is this lack of focus on the long term that captures everything that is wrong with the marketplace today. Once long term growth and sustainability take centre stage, short term profit becomes unimportant, Wall Street is told to go <expletive> themselves, people become as important as product, and the market changes — for the better. If you would like the market to change for the better, and become successful beyond your wildest dreams when it does, you can start by taking Vijay Govindarajan’s advice and take the following “Five Steps to Long Term Growth”.

1. Decide What You Are Playing For

Are you playing for the fat <expletive>s on Wall Street? Or are you playing for yourself and your stakeholders. If the latter, then you have to take a stand and do something about it. No one is going to do it for you.

2. Get Everyone Speaking the Same Language

Once you decide you’re playing for the long term, the next thing you have to do is something different. Growth means fostering transformational or breakthrough innovation. This will require identifying value propositions that will expand your business into new markets with new advantages.

3. Imagine Your Future

If you want sustainable growth, you must have a sense of what the future will be, what it will require, and how you will win. Then you apply your breakthrough or transformational innovation to achieving that vision.

4. Align Your Actions With Your Intentions

As Def Leppard said in a fit of Pyromania, it’s Action, Not Words. You have to remember that your people are used to hearing a lot of big talk about great new initiatives that never come to pass and without some action behind them, they will assume that your words are just another corporate fad that will be forgotten as time passes. If you say you are going to eliminate all traces of phosphate from your products, assemble teams to do it. If you say you are going to create 50 jobs with a new initiative, start hiring!

5. Do It!

Growth is hard work requiring strategy, judgment, and leadership. It involves risk. It involves you. You will have to keep doing it. Day in. Day out. Day over. Day under. Day torn asunder. And back to day in.