Category Archives: Public Sector

To Manage Innovation, Governments Must Fix Procurement … And Take Care Where AI is Concerned!

A recent article on Civil Service World noted two things that attracted my attention:

  1. To manage innovation, governments must fix procurement
  2. Too often, contracts in AI do not give governments powers to investigate algorithms or the data they are trained on. As a result, they risk taking the blame when things go wrong without the means to find out why.

Public Procurement is expensive. Very expensive. Given that it represents 12% of the annual GDP of an average developed economy, that is a huge amount of spend. Given that the overspend in most departments of most jurisdictions is likely as bad as in the private sector, which means, depending on the category, is likely in the 4% to 6% range at a minimum (based on the results high performing organizations see when implementing best-in-class processes and technology), that means a minimum of 1/2% of GDP is being wasted annually, but based on the fact that most public sector projects exceed initial budgets and timelines, we’d bet that the overspend is double that and at least 1% of the annual GDP. That’s a lot of waste — 770 Billion on the top 10 economies. Furthermore, that assumes that all of the spend is necessary and well planned. (There is likely considerably more savings with better demand planning, more operational efficiency, better project planning, etc. We’re just stating that the savings on committed spend alone is likely 10%.)

The article notes that despite the strategic importance of Procurement, it’s rarely seen as a priority and is more often treated as a standardized compliance function, rather than a tool for strategic investment and, in some cases, has become synonaomous with absurdity, due to an accumulation of rules so complex that even those administering them cannot interpret them creates the perverse incentive of doing the least risky thing to avoid individual liability. As a result, governments end up buying obsolete technologies that make them vulnerable, because innovation evolves so rapidly, and forces them to buy more. The cycle repeats, budgets balloon, and public capabilities diminish.

And, unfortunately, public procurement is a brick-and-mortar process, still more suited to bulk-buying precisely describable goods, accounting for them, and moving onto the next purchase. Innovation is different: you do not know today what is going to be possible tomorrow, even when you are the one inventing the tech. While governments work in one-off projects, innovation is made of ever-changing, always-fleeting products.

Furthermore, those in charge of procuring these technologies are not technologists. Public procurement is professionalized in only 38% of OECD countries, so even if officials had the incentive to experiment, they would not have the expertise.

To combat this, the authors of the article propose that Procurement systems should be like good software, fluid, flexible, and constantly evolving. However, as they note, this will take more than changing rules. As they note, it will take talent that are experts in what they are buying. It will take the treatment of Procurement as a strategic function, with clear lines for advancement for all personnel (as studies have shown that even a marginal improvement in skill can yield significant reductions in costs, times, and contracting complexity). Thirdly, they will need a federated data environment to make use of modern technology. (Especially if they want to use AI.)

This is just the start of what is necessary. There needs to be regular training. There needs to be specialization to different types of functions and purposes. There needs to be a rewrite of rules to focus on the right outcomes, not just a plethora of rules designed to prevent previously undesirable outcomes. There needs to be clear paths from buyer to public organization CPO to department head, not just paths of advancement within the Procurement function. There needs to be a focus on what’s best for the public being served, not best to minimize the risk to the buyer. And a willingness to accept that their may be a few mistakes made here and there as new buyers learn the ropes, while a willingness to weed out anyone that “makes a mistake” in order to give a contract to a supplier who is not the best fit (and do so in exchange for a kickback).

But most importantly, if they acquire AI technology, they also need to acquire the right to investigate the algorithms being used, the data it is trained on, the results of prior training, and the right to inspect any changes to the algorithms, data, and training. Otherwise, you can never trust any AI technology you might want to acquire.

Because governments need to apply the most appropriate AI-enhanced technology more than the private sector, but are the least likely to be able to use them properly.

The Public Sector is Giving Procurement Integrity A Bad Name … Can the Private Sector Fix It?

A recent article over on Global Government Forum on Procurement Integrity: A Big Problem That’s Worse Than Most Organizations Think, pointed out that errors, fraud and abuse in procurement cost governments and organizations millions of dollars every year, and even though recent headlines in the US (TriMark, Booz Allen Hamilton), UK (NHS, Royal Mail), and Canada (ArriveCan) are starting to shine the light on the extent of (public sector) procurement fraud, the problem is still bigger than you think. Much bigger.

Current estimates are that organizations, across the public and private sectors, lose 5% per year due to procurement errors, abuse, and fraud. Given that Global GDP is about 85 Trillion dollars, at 5%, that’s 4 TRILLION dollars estimated to be lost annually to errors, abuse, and fraud. And that’s probably a low-ball estimate due to the fact that we just calculated that Over One TRILLION dollars will be wasted on IT software and services due, primarily, to lack of knowledge and/or outright stupidity (and not malicious intent, but if it’s easy for consultancies and third parties to considerably over bill for legitimate goods and services that you need, imagine how much they are fleecing you for goods and services that you don’t need and may not even receive).

It’s highly likely that the true cost of errors, abuse, and fraud (internal, collusion, and external) is closer to 10% of total GDP, or close to EIGHT TRILLION. That’s at least twice the GDP of every country on the planet except China and the United States. That’s a BIG PROBLEM, which is definitely not being helped by the 100M to Multi Billion Procurement Frauds being reported almost monthly across major western economies — and multi-million dollar fines don’t repair the damage. (They don’t even come close.)

This is damage which Procurement needs to repair — because Procurement is the only department that has any hope of putting proper procedures, processes, and platforms in place to minimize the errors; training the organizational employees on proper procedures and monitoring the implementations to prevent abuse; and putting in place proper detection systems to detect, and prevent, potential fraud and quickly identify and track it when it happens.

Unless all the bucks go through, and stop at, a modern Procurement department run by a CPO who puts in place proper people, processes, and platforms, loss is going to continue to run rampant. Which means that while the public sector is failing us daily, the Private sector has to step up and restore the integrity of Procurement. It can start by utilizing some of the the techniques in the linked article, and continue by continually learning and implementing the best technology and processes it finds to not only uncover significant savings in inflationary times, but return integrity and trust into big business, and give governments who have lost their way a model to follow.

And for more details on Bad Buying to avoid, and how to achieve Procurement with Purpose, the doctor suggests you start by following the great public procurement defender, Peter Smith.

Agile Procurement Can Work in the Private Sector … but the Public Sector?

A recent article over on the Public Spend Forum on Agile Procurement for the Public Sector – A Primer noted that Agile Procurement might just be what is needed to solve the complex challenge of public Procurement and solve the problem of the myriad of rules, processes, policies, and templates that became more and more complicated over time in the public sector.

According to the article, the answer is to adopt the best practice of agile development and move away from contract-oriented competitive Procurements to approaches that provide more flexibility for competitive dialog and negotiation (allowing requirements to be discussed, clarified, further defined, developed, and improved) using the iterative, collaboration, and change-oriented aspects of agile development.

This sounds great in theory, but we have to remember why we have a i>myriad of rules, processes, policies, and templates that became more and more complicated over time. As the author notes, Procurement mistakes would lead to trade complaints and lawsuits, and so more rules would be added, more contingencies, more processes layering on top of one another to reach where we are today.

Just imagine what would happen if all the rules were dropped in a flexible environment where the requirements of the contract could change each round. Since the changes would likely always favour one bidder over another, or at least be more aligned with the suggestion of one bidder over another, imagine the trade complaints and lawsuits that would arise. It would be chaotic! In order for an agile Procurement process to work, we’d need to revise not only our procurement principles across all levels of government, but also our legal system that made the requirements for filing trade complaints very restrictive.

In other words, agile Procurement for the public sector is a great theory, but the doctor doesn’t think it will be a reality for quite some time. However, there’s absolutely no reason to avoid it in the private sector. It’s a great way to get the best proposal(s) for the organization, and as long as your organization is open and transparent about the process it intends to use, quite resistant to legal challenges, as private organizations, unlike public organizations, can pretty much do what they want, especially if they are transparent about it and don’t break any laws. (And being collaborative vs. combative, in most jurisdictions, does not break any laws.)

So, if you’re private, be agile. If you’re public, be careful. You can be agile in your market research, but once you start the formal Procurement process, you better be traditional … at least for the time being.

First Clue that the New Public Procurement Policy is Going to Cost Everyone Money

Effective immediately, our policy is to only buy “Made in X”, where “X” is the local country or state.

Why is this going to cost you money?

First of all, it’s going to eliminate competition. And we all know what happens when competition goes away. Suppliers, who know they don’t have to worry about being replaced, as there’s only a few alternatives, and they’re already in your door, stop working as hard to be as cost competitive, innovative, or valuable to your organization.

But if that was the worst that could happen, it wouldn’t be so bad.

The reality is that as soon as a “buy local” policy comes into effect, suppliers are going to also (pretend to) “buy local”, which of course is going to raise their costs, because their suppliers are going to also stop working as hard to be as cost competitive, valuable, or innovative because the market is small, they’re in the door, and they know their competitors will also be content to maintain the status quo so they won’t have much competition. And this will continue down to the raw material supplier.

But if this was the worst that could happen, it still wouldn’t be so bad.

The reality is that once a supplier knows that it’s effectively the only game in town, it’s not going to worry about cost increases. In fact, it’s not only going to stop asking how much it has to raise costs to cover its increased costs and ensure it maintains nice, fat margins, it’s going to ask how much it can raise prices and just how fat its margins can get. It’s borderline corruption.

But if this was the worst that could happen, it might still be something that could be grudgingly accepted and dealt with.

The reality is that not all suppliers will be content to inflate their margins. In locales where corruption is common, this is only going to encourage more corruption. As per the public defender‘s post on how “Made in Nigeria” Public Procurement Policy Will Simply Lead To More Corruption, this sort of policy provides the perfect cover for both parties in a typical corrupt procurement transaction. How so? Read the public defender‘s post. Simply put, the buyer can now get away with saying “I had to buy local, and this looked like the best choice” and use it as a defence when caught.

RIP, PER

Fifty-Five (55) years ago today, the Pacific Electric Railway, once the largest electric railway in the world in the 1920s, ended operations.

It was a sad day in history because despite the perceived infrastructure cost, electric transportation can be a lot a cheaper than gas-transportation with the regular, repeated, rises in oil that have been happening over the past 40 years, especially when you consider improvements in electricity generation from sustainable sources including sun, wind, and water power that is almost free once the infrastructure has been paid for.

As this isn’t an engineering or energy blog, we won’t dive into pages of discussion as to why clean, smog-free electric streetcars are much preferable to the gas-guzzling busses of today, but simply mourn the passing of the streetcar and the great networks that used to power the great cities of North America.