Category Archives: Risk Management

The (Board) Gamer’s Guide to Supply Management Part VI: Zombie Dice, Tsuro, and Get Bit!

I’m enraptured to continue this one-of-a-kind summer series that will help you whether you are just interested in finding out about this new and exciting career opportunity, or ready to take your Supply Management career to the next level. Not only is it significantly more fun than counting grains of sand for an hourglass, but when you can grasp a lot of the basic concepts by playing the right mix of strategic (and sometimes tactical) board games with your friends, it’s three blasts squared.

I know we still have to tackle the economic games, like Puerto Rico and Dominion, but we’re gong to continue to make use of the fact that, thanks to the unequaled generosity of Wil Wheaton (@wilw) and Geek & Sundry, we have yet another marvelous TableTop episode where Wil introduces us to yet another great game — or, in this case, three great games. Until the tap runs dry, we are going to collect every precious drop of water that Wil is directing our way.

Wil gives us a very succinct introduction to each of the three games covered in TableTop Episode 3, starting with

Zombie Dice

is a press-your-luck dice game. We are all zombies trying to fill our undead bellies with delicious, delicious brains. On every turn, we will draw three dice from the cup. Each die represents a human survivor or, as we call them, lunch. We roll the dice. We then keep all of the brains and all of the shots to the face. Now we have a choice to make. We can stop, and score the brains, or we can press our luck. There’s one special die. It’s this guy, he’s the runner. If we choose to roll again, we have to include him in the three dice total because we haven’t caught him yet. You keep rolling until you are shot in the face three times or you choose to stop and score all of the brains in front of you. The first player to score thirteen or more brains wins.

Zombie Dice is a great game because it helps you understand the Wall Street mentality which, inevitably, leads to financial market meltdowns when left unchecked — just like the subprime mortgage crisis, the dot-com bubble, the speculative currency crises in Asia, Mexico, and Europe in the 1990s, the savings and loans crisis, the oil crisis, the crash of 1929, the shanghai rubber stock market crisis, the rail road panic of 1893, the gurney crisis, the danish state bankruptcy, the south sea bubble and the mississippi bubble, and the tulip mania. While financial market meltdowns are not a new phenomenon, thanks to the internet and the interconnectedness of the global financial markets, they are occurring more and more and will continue to do so as long as the unlimited risk mentality of Wall Street goes unchecked.

It’s critical that you understand this mentality, and the risks associated with it, because the more you try to limit your risk by playing the currency markets, the hedge funds, or even asset-based investments (like gold), the more types of risk you are actually opening yourself up to. If you don’t know what you’re doing, you’ll end up rolling red die after red die, which triples your chance of getting shot in the face.

In addition, what makes Zombie Dice truly great is that it also teaches us about the unpredictability of risk. You never know when you are going to get shot in the face with a supply disruption due to a natural disaster, a civil disturbance, or a quickly enacted political trade barrier, or how much damage it’s going to do. Supply Management is full of risk, and every time you place an overseas order, you could be rolling the dice.

Tsuro

is a path finding, tile laying game. We are flying dragons. On every turn, we will play a tile on the board. Every dragon touching that tile has to follow the path it makes to completion. … If you fly off the board, you are eliminated. If you crash into another dragon, you are eliminated.

This is a cool game because it forces you to think strategically, which is important in markets where demand exceeds supply and you have to outmaneuver your competition to insure that you always get what you need, and keep your organization on the board. It teaches you that you not only need to think about what you need, but if you are in a market where demand exceeds supply, what your competition needs so that you can lock up supply first.

Get Bit

is a bluffing game, designed by my friend Dave Chalker. We are all robots out for a leisurely swim in shark-infested waters. Each turn, to figure out which one of us is swimming the fastest, we will play a card from our hand, numbered one through five. The fastest number goes to the front of the line, and the slowest number will go to the back of the line. The robot who is closer to the shark gets bit. We each have four limbs. So if you are bitten four times, you become Anchor Bot 9000 and spend the rest of your days on the bottom of the sea.

This is a good companion game to Tsuro because, like Tsuro, it forces you to think strategically, but has the added advantage that it demonstrates what happens if your competition mirrors your movements — you both stand still while the other competitors in the market swim past you. You not only have to outmaneuver your competition in this space, you have to prevent them from blocking you.

It used to be that Doctors made Life and Death Decisions. Now Supply Managers do too!

This recent CSR briefing over on the CPO Agenda on “when good procurement can be a life and death factor” is great food for thought as it points that not Supply Management is more then just sourcing and procuring, it’s also also sustaining and securing — in more ways than one!

Focussing on how the early 2000s saw several incidents where hospital patients inadvertently received excess doses of their drugs that resulted in fatalities, the article pointed out how a poor selection of IMDs (Interactive Medical Devices) that didn’t do anything to prevent common human errors was the reason that a premature baby died after receiving 10 times the required dose of diamorphine and a person lost their life after receiving a dose 24 times too high after a daily dose was miscalculated as hourly when it would have been trivial to code in a dosage check that asked a nurse or doctor are you sure before administering a dose outside of the range. After all, it’s easy to mistype a decimal point and then 13.5 ml becomes 135 ml, or click the hourly instead of daily button if you’re in a rush (and what health-care professional isn’t overworked these days)?

Now, you could say that the real problem was lack of training, as better training could have minimized the possibility of human error, but in each case sourcing was involved. In each case, a wide range of IMD devices were in service in each of the hospitals. And in each case, each time a procurement exercise took place, a different machine was chosen as the most cost effective. The factor that should have been last on the list was placed first and people died. Remembering that Supply Management’s ultimate goal is value (creation), not cost (reduction), and in this case, the value was procuring the best IMD for the hospital, not the cheapest one today, where the best IMD was one that was easy to use, programmed with easy range checks, reliable, fault tolerant, long lasting, and safe and reasonably priced with respect to these requirements. Considering the inherent value in human life (and the cost of the lawsuit or settlement that the hospital is going to have to pay as a result of a preventable death), if that means spending 20% more, so be it.

If instead of sourcing IMDs as one-off sourcing events when a need arose, Supply Management put security and sustainability first and foremost and redefined IMF sourcing as a multi-year master contract agreement, negotiated against projected demand over the next 3-5 years, lives might have been saved as there would likely not be more than two types of IMDs at any one time (the ones sourced during the last contract, and the ones being sourced during the current contract, where the contract length is defined to insure all of the old machines are replaced before a new contract is negotiated with the possibility of switching vendors) and the amount of training the health care staff would need would be minimal.

And the reality is that medical device sourcing is not the only area of Supply Management where lives are at stake. Supply Managers also source food and beverage categories, and melamine in the milk, diethylene glycol in the toothpaste, salmonella in the spinach, bovine spongiform encephalopathy in the beef (which can cause Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease), and botulism in the chili sauce can all result in death, and if not caught in time, can be as deadly as a plague or coronavirus (SARS).

And Food & Beverage is just one example. The chemical sector is another. What if the chemicals are hazardous and the storage units are poorly made and leak? Cyanogen chloride is colourless, and deadly, and used in the production of Chlorosulfonyl isocyanate which is used in medicine in the production of Beta-lactams, which form the foundation of antibiotics (including penicillin).

Another is heavy machinery. Carbon monoxide (CO) is regularly produced by internal combustion engines in enclosed spaces. If the exhaust system is not airtight and properly insulated, CO could leak into the factory and poison (or kill) your workers before they even know it’s there as it is an odourless colourless gas.

The point is, where physical products are concerned, almost anything you source could be a hazard to human health, and even life. (We still have problems with led in the paint and asbestos in the insulation when sourcing from overseas.) This doesn’t mean that you don’t have to worry about services — it just depends on what you’re sourcing and what products and materials the service providers have to use in the performance of their jobs. For example, Janitorial Services could be a problem if the company is contracted to provide the cleaning products and they consistently use cleaners with too high a borax concentration which is not properly cleaned up.

So, next time you source, get out that corporate social responsibility scorecard; make sure safety, security, and sustainability play a prominent role, and remember that, indirectly, you could be responsible for someone’s life.

Your job just changed, didn’t it?

You need a Platform that Supports Sustainability

I think we can all agree that sustainability is important – very important. You might be in business to make money, but the only way you’re going to make money is if you stay in business. The only way you’re going to stay in business is if you’re sustainable, because, otherwise, you risk running out of resources, money, or, and I’m not kidding, customers. The earth is finite, so it stands to reason that there is only a finite amount of any resource. A company has a finite amount of money, and wasting it is the quickest path to going out of business. Today’s consumer is concerned about the environment – harming it will drive them away, and with no customers, you have no business.

So how do you achieve this magic of sustainability? Well, you can achieve it the same way you achieve everything else in business – hard work, perseverance, and ingenuity. But the real trick comes in sustaining sustainability – and the best way to do that is to have not only supporting processes and methodologies, but a supporting platform as well.

A supporting platform can help you keep track of your initiatives which can range from your office recycling program to your global waste reduction initiative. Recycling efforts within a single large office building can save hundreds of thousands of dollars. As noted in a now classic S&DC article on “Building the Green Supply Chain”, the Boulder Community Hospital reduce, reuse, and recycle program saved the hospital $600K a year. On a global scale, Walmart saved 2.4M in shipping just by reducing packaging requirements. And Interface Inc, in their effort to move to a zero environment footprint, have saved more than 260M in the first decade of their sustainability program.

More importantly, it can also help you get control of your global sustainability initiatives when it comes to environmental impact reduction, social responsibility, and prevention of animal cruelty. Unlike internal waste reduction initiatives, which often do not exceed the complexity of making sure the used toner cartridges were shipped back to the manufacturer, global sustainability initiatives require you to also insure your supply chain does not violate the initiatives you commit to. Just because you don’t have a sweatshop, pump out toxic emissions in excess of the Kyoto protocol, or skin cows alive does not mean that your suppliers do not.

In order to insure that you have a supply chain in compliance with your initiatives, you have to track relevant information from your suppliers and have them track the corresponding information from their suppliers. This is an insurmountable challenge unless they can provide you with the information you need directly into your systems, as the average large company has dozens, if not hundreds of essential tier 1 suppliers and thousands of less critical suppliers. This requires a web based platform capable of securely collecting, storing, indexing, aggregating, and unifying all of the relevant information from each supplier.

Furthermore, depending on where you want to do business, sustainability might be more than just an initiative – it might be a fact of life. If you want to do business in the EU, you need to comply with REACH and RoHS, and possibly half a dozen other directives. California has introduced its own green legislation, and parts of Asia, suffering from severe pollution as a result of the rapid build up of manufacturing capability over the last few decades to meet the demands of American and European multinationals focussed on low cost country sourcing, may not be far behind. You have to not only maintain all of the documentation necessary for compliance purposes, but have to be at least 99.999% certain you are in compliance before making a shipment into the region. If even the tiniest removable part of your electronics system, such as the removable power cord, is not in compliance, your entire shipment could be blocked, seized, or destroyed.

This dictates the need for a platform that tracks not only all information related to your sustainability programs, but all product related information from raw materials through final production. This is the only way to minimize your risk of non-compliance. That’s why you need a Supplier Information Management (SIM) solution, or an e-Sourcing/e-Procurement solution with enhanced Supplier & Sustainability Information Management. Fortunately, you have a lot of options. We’ve covered many on SI in the past and will cover more in the months to come.

Doing Cross-Border Trade in Europe? Download this Free Handbook!

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) recently released the “Handbook of Best Practices at Border Crossings — A Trade and Transport Facilitation Perspective” to assist the 56 OSCE participating States / UNECE member States in the development of more efficient border and customs policies through the promotion of existing best practices in the field. Clocking in at 268 pages and 5.7 MB, this e-book is filled with advice on the international legal framework; international co-operation; balancing security with trade and transport facilitation; policies for control, clearance, and transit of freight; risk management; border crossing point design; the use of information and communications technology for non-intrusive inspection; human resource management, and measuring performance. Given the wide array of legislation that an international organization can face, given that this e-book is totally free, the doctor thinks it’s a must have in your global trade e-Library.

As the handbook points out in chapter 3, there are five major categories of security threats that countries need to watch out for at their borders:

  • normal criminal acts
    such as car thefts on one side and chop shops on the other
  • technical violations
    such as lack of proper documentation
  • traditional organized crime
    that would include smuggling of weapons, people, and other contraband
  • terrorist threats
    that could result in attacks, destruction of property, and death
  • border management threats
    that would include corruption and abuse of power

These require a number of security procedures and controls to deal with. (The UK alone has 37 procedures, as outlined on page 57, that range from AEO [Authorised Economic Operators], CSI [Container Security Initiatives], and MATRA [Multi-Agency Threat and Risk Assessment] all the way to dangerous goods declarations, pre-ship notifications, and commercial insurance.) Some of these are compliant with the new WCO SAFE Framework, some are not. Either way you need to be aware of them, what impact they have, and how they can benefit you.

To really dive into the issues, and recommendations, download your FREE copy of the OSCE “Handbook of Best Practices at Border Crossings — A Trade and Transport Facilitation Perspective” today!

Best Practices of Trade Compliance

A recent article over on the ISM site entitled “A Steel Thread”, which discussed how import/export compliance management is part of the fabric of today’s global business world and how ignoring it could result in your shipment being flagged for intensive investigation, seized, or destroyed, did a good job of pointing out how federal trade compliance regulations have increased dramatically over the past several years. But this is not why SI liked it. It also did a good job of pointing out the roadblocks to compliance for an average Supply Management organization, starting from the fact that the sourcing and compliance teams often have different definitions of supply chain security. But this isn’t why SI liked it either. The reason SI likes it is because it summarizes six best practices of trade compliance that will significantly help an average Supply Management organization get its global trade processes and policies under control.

The six best practices it focusses on are:

  • Education and Training
    Let’s face it. The average supply management professional is probably not aware of the myriad of compliance and security legislations that an average category could be subject to when sourcing internationally. Training, which overviews the major legislations, the common sourced categories that might be covered under those legislations, and best practices to maximize the chances of compliance is a great place to start.
  • Senior Management Commitment
    We all know nothing takes root without senior management sponsorship, so making sure senior management understands the importance of a good trade compliance initiative and supports it is a great place to start. If you’re having trouble getting support, SI recommends that you start by pointing out the 88 Million Dollar Fine JP Morgan got for failing to comply with trade compliance legislation.
  • Written Policies and Procedures
    Once you’ve identified your best practice processes that minimize the chance of non-compliance, you need to write them down, create checklists, and make sure they are followed. The reality is that if you are found in non-compliance, you will be fined, even if it was 100% unintentional and you did everything you could to be in compliance, but if you can show you did your best, the severity of the fine and punishments levied will likely be minimal. The government agencies responsible for monitoring compliance aren’t out to shut businesses down or make trade unduly difficult, they are just trying to do their job and enforce the law. However, most of the acts only define maximum fines, not minimum ones, and it’s not common practice for them to severely punish good corporate citizens who have a process, follow the process, and do their best to ensure compliance for a small slip-up.
  • Connectivity with Business Units
    Not only is it impossible to do compliance in a vacuum, as the article points out, but it is the business units who often have the detailed data on products and services that you need to make proper compliance assessments. Working with them can eliminate issues before a shipment is even made.
  • Internal Assessment
    As the article points out, an internal self-assessment of compliance practices should be performed to gauge how well regulations are being met and how compliance is connecting with logistics, supply management, sales, shipping and receiving — and it should be done as soon as possible if you haven’t done one, and reviewed annually to see if all bases are still being covered. And it should be very well documented. This will help you if you are ever investigated for possibly running afoul of trade legislation.
  • Third Party Assessment
    In addition, as the article points out, once or twice a year, a “second set of eyes” should evaluate how trade compliance is being handled throughout the company to make sure you didn’t miss anything. This can turn the tide in your favour if non-compliance occurred someone along the supply chain as you not only did your best to make sure you were in compliance, but had a third party that has expertise in supply chain audits do their best to verify that you are in compliance as well.

About the only critical best practice that they missed is:

  • Implement a Trade Compliance Platform
    The reality is that you can’t do all of this manually, or even attempt to track all of the relevant data manually. You need a technology solution to help you — one that centralizes all of the data and makes it all available to all of the people in your organization that need it, as well as to trusted partners that need, and are authorized to use, it.

There are other best practices, but if you start with this list, you will get most of the way there in short order.