Category Archives: Supply Chain

Your Supply Chain Is Only As Safe As the Most Insecure Point

Just like a chain is only as strong as the weakest link, your supply chain is only as safe as the most insecure point – and the surprising thing (to you) is that it’s probably not where you think it is (at least not if you do business the local way).

As per this recent article over on the Logistics Briefing Blog on Transport Intelligence, “2012 is a record breaking year for freight criminals”. It was bound to happen sooner or later. As the article points out, with an average electronics shipment valued between 3 Million and 30 Million, these shipments are worth a lot more than most shipments of drugs or even guns, and are more valuable to thieves in more ways than one.

  1. The margins are higher.
    The cost of an operation to steal one of these shipments is typically 10% of the value, or less. It truly is a steal.
  2. The risk are lower.
    Most law enforcement agencies haven’t realized just how attractive these shipments are to criminals.
  3. The downside is much lower.
    If you do get caught, and it’s a first offence, it’s unlikely that you’ll end up in jail (unless the theft was violent and someone got hurt). In comparison, if you’re running drugs, you’re going to jail. Even if it’s just a few ounces of marijuana. (Plus, the chances of being hunted down by a heavily armed SWAT team are miniscule in comparison.)

But what is really going to surprise you is where the crime is picking up. Many of the significant thefts are in the EU! A recent theft in Hungary involved about €3 Million worth of smart-phones. Theft in the Netherlands shot up when the U.K. launched “Operation Grafton” to reduce thefts in Heathrow. And freight crime in Belgium has increased 90%.

So for those of you worried about India and China, think again. (And, as mentioned in the first paragraph, if you’re willing to do business the traditional way in those countries, and grease a few palms, your cargo will be quite safe. SI is not endorsing this, especially if you’re in the U.S. or the U.K. where such actions might be seen as violating the FCPA or the Bribery Act, but just noting that, statistically these countries are safer to ship in than a number of countries in Europe and can be much safer than just about anywhere in the world with the right preparations. The point is that your first instinct is probably not the right one when it comes to judging safe shipping zones.)

The Supply Chain Has Changed a Lot in 60 Years!

Sixty years ago, we had no shipping containers, no Satellite Communications, and no packet switching. That means no standardized shipping, no RFID or cell phone calls to remote locations where landlines are unreliable (because thieves are digging up the copper) or non-existent, and no way of tracking your shipments and status with internet and web-based software.

But all that changed in the 50’s. We had the U.S. Military begin standardization of the intermodal shipping container, which was formally standardized by the ISO in the late 1960s, packet switching research began in the early 1960s, which resulted in NPL and ARPANET, the latter evolving into the internet, and 54 years ago today, ARPA (the Advanced Research Projects Agency) launched the world’s first communications satellite, SCORE (Signal Communications by Orbiting Relay Equipment).

And less than 60 years later we have the modern supply chain. It’s too bad that we didn’t have blogs 60 years ago, because it would be very interesting to go back through the digital archives and relive the New Florence. New Renaissance. that followed WWII. At the time, with the limits of communication technology, the rate of innovation between 1945 and 1969 was quite phenomenal. The current Renaissance didn’t really start until the introduction of the Web 20 years later (in 1989). Something to think about before the world begins again in 3 days. 🙂

To Get The Most Out Of Supplier Reports, Read Between the Lines

SIG recently ran a good article on Getting the Most out of Supplier Reports (that now appears to be hidden behind a registration/membership wall in their newly redesigned site) that made some good points. Many suppliers are just beginning their reporting journey, and don’t always know what is important or what the customer really wants. Plus, and this is even more important, if a supplier is really doing poor in one area, it may not want you to know, especially if renewal time is coming up.

So how do you get the most out of the reports?

First, go beyond the facts. As the article notes, the reports should include quantitative and qualitative information. Have the supplier go beyond just spend, on time delivery, and other hard metrics and include customer service ratings, quality reviews, and overall compliance levels. The supplier might be hitting the cost targets, delivery times, or resolution times, but your internal stakeholders, the customers, might be extremely unhappy with the supplier.

Then, and this is SI’s advice, pick a couple of metrics that are poor and a couple of metrics that are good and dig, dig, dig. For example, let’s say on time delivery is poor. Find out why. When the supplier says that the production rate is 80% of predicted throughput, don’t just say to speed up, dig. Is it labor issues? Is the supplier short-handed? Is it mechanical issues? Does key equipment keep breaking down? Is it supply? Is a second tier supplier repeatedly late? Don’t stop until you find the root cause and make sure it gets appropriately addressed. Then choose a good metric. For example, let’s say the supplier hit the savings target. Why? Every cost has components, and where a supplier is concerned, there will be supply costs, labour costs, and overhead costs. Make sure you understand which costs were reduced and to what degree. There might still be gold in the veins. For example, let’s say that supply costs dropped 10%. If market costs dropped 12%, then the supplier might not have done anything! If the supplier was supposed to reduce supply costs and overhead costs, and leaves one cost untouched, the supplier can still do better.

But don’t stop there. As the article indicates, make sure you have the supplier compare its performance serving you to its average performance serving other customers. This will help you identify metrics that you need to monitor for improvement.

And audit. (But not too often.) This will allow you to maintain control and give you more insight into the supplier’s performance. (However, if done too often, will be too time-consuming, instill angst in the supplier, and not produce any results if no issues are found.)

Doing this will allow you to read between the lines and extract true value from your supplier reports.

Let’s be Clear. Logistics Services and Logistics Technology Services Are NOT the Same!

And while the technology they use is important, the initial focus should be on the logistics services and whether the logistics services they offer are sufficient enough for the provider to even be under consideration.

Recently, I came across the headline that offered 5 Essential Technology Questions to Ask Any Logistics Service Provider and, as logistics services are not the same as logistics technology services, I assumed it would focus on judging the logistics provider’s general level of technical competence online and off, but the questions were entirely oriented around the technology solution used by the provider. While a good solution is good, because you need visibility, integration, etc., the first thing you need is to get your goods delivered. The second thing you need is sustainability. Then you need technology – and if the provider is deficient, there’s always the possibility that you can provide the technology. In other words, while the questions were good, I think they were off track. Here were the questions:

  1. What does visibility really mean to the provider?
  2. Can they customize their tools to meet your needs?
  3. What process integration options do they offer?
  4. How many current providers are integrated with their technology?
  5. How mature is their system availability process?

These are important, but I’d start with:

  1. What technology do they use to manage their fulfillment operations?
  2. How sophisticated is the schedule capability? Can it handle last-minute shipment changes?
  3. How much visibility can they give you into their schedules, capacity, and your shipments?
  4. Is the integration format standard and supported by your systems, or will you need some custom integration work?
  5. What is their ability to support their system, or yours if their system does not have the requisite visibility?

    Basically, you want to know that:

    1. They are using a fairly modern tool and have a firm, efficient grasp on their operations.
    2. They can handle dynamic schedules and expedited shipments when needed.
    3. You can get the visibility you need, even if someone has to do some development work.
    4. The integration can be accomplished efficiently and effectively.
    5. They, and you, are not dependent on a third party to manage, support, and query the system.

    A logistics services provider is not going to be an expert in software and systems. That’s not their core strength, so you shouldn’t be asking them questions like they are. That being said, you should make sure they are technologically literate and able to make use of appropriate technology. Find the balance, or you might end up eliminating some potentially great partners.

If America is Going to Be Number One Oil Producer By 2020, Will Canada Be Number Two?

According to this recent Economist Article on Energy to Spare, America is on track to produce all the energy it needs at home. Considering that Americans burn three and a half times as much energy as the average Chinese person, and hasn’t been able to meet its energy needs in over half a century, this seems like a tall order. Especially since, demand has more than doubled since America was last able to satisfy its energy needs from domestic sources.

However, the International Energy Agency is forecasting that America could become the world’s largest oil producer by 2020, when it could be churning out 11.1 Million barrels a day, and be energy self-sufficient by 2035. Coupled with the fact that demand is waning due to increased fuel efficiency, the prediction is that rising production and falling demand will equal out in 2035.

It’s an interesting prediction, but so is the prediction about the Athabasca Oil Sands north of the American border. Right now, production is about 1.3M barrels per day, but estimates are that production can get to 5.1M barrels per day. As per this article in the Economist, on The Sands of Grime, Canada’s oil sands contain over 170 Billion Barrels of oil that can be recovered economically with today’s technology. With the third largest proven oil reserves in the world, it’s quite likely that production can ramp up to make Canada at least fourth in oil production by 2020, with third place a strong possibility. Right now, Venezuelan production for 2020 is estimated at 6.5M barrels per day and Saudi Arabia, at close to 10M barrels per day, expects it can get to 11 M barrels per day (Source). With the difference between Canadian production estimates and Venezuelan production estimates for 2020 less than 30%, it would only take a 15% increase in Canadian production and a 15% decrease in Venezuelan production for Canada to edge in third.

Unless Saudi Arabian reserves are less than estimated, or Canadian production ramps up exponentially beyond expectations, we probably won’t make number two, but number three is a strong possibility.