How Will McKinsey’s Five Reshaping Forces Affect Your Global Supply Chain? Part I

A recent article in the McKinsey Quarterly, that summarized some of their global survey results, tackled the “five forces reshaping the global economy” as executives are still grappling with how to seize the opportunities of an interlinked world economy. It provides some good information and insight, but leaves one with as many questions as it provides answers. This post will summarize the five reshaping forces and the next post will attempt to shed some light in the directions the answers may lie.

The following are the forces that were identified:

  1. Growth and Risk Management in Emerging MarketsEmerging markets and their young and growing populations will not only raise consumption, but will also become the major contributors to the global talent and innovation pools. However, most multinational executives in developed economies still aren’t betting on significant revenues from emerging markets for at least the next five years.
  2. Labor Productivity and Talent ManagementDeclining birth rates and greying workforces in developed economies are impeding growth, mandating the need for major gains in productivity just to maintain stability. Developed economies are already projecting significant talent shortfalls in management, R&D, and strategy.
  3. Global Flows of Goods, Information, and CapitalThe relatively free flow of goods and capital in recent years drove globalization to unprecedented heights, but the economic downturn and global financial crises appear to be preventing further growth. Most executives do not expect more than moderate increases in the short term.
  4. Natural Resource ManagementIncreasing constraints on supply or usage of natural resources continues to affect companies’ bottom lines in the developed world. A significant number of executives, 25% on average and 45% in energy and manufacturing, expect this trend to have a negative effect on profits.
  5. The Increasing Role of GovernmentsExecutives in North America and Europe are haunted by the perception of crippling public debt levels created by the government and expect that the net impact on GDP growth in their home markets will be negative.

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The Real Key to Spotting Disruption Before it Happens

A recent post over on the HBR blogs on “the key to spotting disruption before it happens” noted that executives have to look beyond revenue or basic market share data to determine whether or not a would be disruption [which would trigger rapid declines in their core business] is a legitimate threat. This is because, in the early days of a transformation — such as mail to e-mail and digital document delivery, or CD to digital (mp3) album downloads, or polaroid to digital cameras and home printers — market leaders tend not to feel deep pain. It’s only after the not-good-enough transformation, which starts away from the mainstream in a seemingly non-connected market, becomes more than a slowly rising-tide and reaches the tipping point where the big switch begins that a market leader starts to see the impact.

According to the article, the key is to spotting potential disruptions is to find the right metric(s) to measure your business against the seemingly disparate competitor. If your measure falls while the measure for the seemingly disparate business rises, then you may have a disruption. For example, the U.S. Postal Service could have foreseen the problems it faces today if it had measured it’s market share by way of “pieces of communication” and not revenue, as mail volume has sagged 17% since 2006; Digital Equipment Corp. could have seen the end of the mini-computer market had it measured units sold against the rising PC market; and Kodak could have seen the “big switch” coming much earlier had it measured number of pictures “developed” on its platform.

The article has a good point as good metrics can tell you when a big switch might be coming. However, I wouldn’t go so far as to say it’s the key to spotting a disruption.

First of all, the method can yield a false positive. Consider the example of the potential big switch in progress given by the author. Yes, television viewership might be declining while YouTube and other online channel viewership is rising, but this doesn’t mean that television viewership will drop significantly. It might, but not everyone has a computer yet. Not everyone has (sufficiently) high speed. And not all the content people want to watch is online. This last point is key. Furthermore, when you think about it, TV networks are in the content development and distribution business … and now that TV is digital, there’s really no difference between a TV and a computer monitor. As long as networks produce content people want to see, learn from their counterparts in the music industry, and adapt to deliver their content through the channels their viewers want to consume it, TV networks will do just fine.

Secondly, by the time the method identifies a disruption, it could be too late. Markets are evolving faster and faster and a new market can often emerge overnight. Take the “tablet PC” and “digital reader” markets. Over a dozen providers, including some big names like Sony and Toshiba, have been producing numerous offerings for these markets for years, but sales remained relatively flat overall until Apple launched the iPad, which broke both markets open by selling over a Million units in a little over a month. If you didn’t have a competitive product in development before its release, it’s too late.

Thirdly, and most importantly, it doesn’t tell you where to look. If you were producing e-Readers, you wouldn’t be watching the tablet PC market. If you were producing tablet PCs, you wouldn’t be watching the e-Reader market. Either way, if you misclassified the iPad, which crosses both markets, you wouldn’t see your market disappear to Apple literally overnight until it happened.

This brings us to the real key for spotting a disruption before it happens … and that is to define it in-house. Use scenario planning to identify what types of future technologies could shift the market out from under you and keep a watchful eye out for them. Then, if you can, partner to develop or take advantage of the new technologies as they emerge, so you can ride the wave upward as the wave you are currently riding crests, or start working on alternative product offerings to start a new wave. Every product has a life-span. The successful companies recognize this and are working on next generation products that will either replace their current products or complement the next generation products of their competition (that they do not have the in-house expertise to develop themselves). They are ready for the next wave and the “disruption” is just a natural transition from one market cycle to the next.

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Webinar Wackiness IX: Webinars This Week from the #1 Supply Chain Resource Site

The Sourcing Innovation Resource Site, always immediately accessible from the link under the “Free Resources” section of the sidebar, continues to add new content on a weekly, and often daily, basis — and it will continue to do so.

The following is a not-so-short selection of 15 webinars THIS WEEK that might interest you:

Date & Time Webcast
2010-Jun-1

 

11:00 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

Top Growth Opportunities by Vertical Industry

Sponsor: Gartner

2010-Jun-2

 

15:00 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

Supplier Performance Management – Stop Talking, Start Doing!

Sponsor: Rollstream

2010-Jun-2

 

14:00 GMT/WET

Discover the Next Generation of Savings through Procurement Outsourcing

Sponsor: ICG Commerce

2010-Jun-2

 

11:30 GMT-05:00/CDT/EST

Retail Supply Chain Best Practices: Visibility and Performance Management

Sponsor: Supply Chain Digest

2010-Jun-2

 

11:00 GMT+10:00/AEST

Cloud Computing: Whats It all About?

Sponsor: Gartner

2010-Jun-3

 

8:00 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

China Update: How to Benefit from China’s Fast Growing & Changing Automotive Industry

Sponsor: Baker & McKenzie

2010-Jun-3

 

14:00 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

Driving Cost Savings with Enterprise Supplier Management

Sponsor: CVM Solutions

2010-Jun-3

 

9:00 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

Improve and accelerate your S&OP process

Sponsor: OM Partners

2010-Jun-3

 

10:00 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

How Can You Leverage Cloud While Balancing Risk and Cost?

Sponsor: Gartner

2010-Jun-3

 

11:00 GMT+08:00/AWST

Shared Services: Quality & Continuous Improvement Culture a Performance Necessity

Sponsor: SSON

2010-Jun-3

 

14:00 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

How Finance Leaders Gain A Strategic Advantage Through Automation

Sponsor: CFO

2010-Jun-3

 

10:30 GMT-07:00/MST/PDT

Regulation’s Future & Impact on Electronics Industry

Sponsor: Silicon Expert Technologies

2010-Jun-3

 

9:00 GMT-05:00/CDT/EST

Driving Enhanced Value and Operational Savings through a Tax-Advantaged Supply Chain: European Market

Sponsor: Ariba

2010-Jun-3

 

14:00 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

Driving Enhanced Value and Operational Savings through a Tax-Advantaged Supply Chain: North American Market

Sponsor: Ariba

2010-Jun-3

 

14:00 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

A New Technology Simplifies Finding the Root Cause of Process Upsets

Sponsor: ARC Advisory Group

They are all readily searchable from the comprehensive Site-Search page. So don’t forget to review the resource site on a weekly basis. You just might find what you didn’t even know you were looking for!

And continue to keep a sharp eye out for new additions!

b-Pack: Packing It In for A Brave New World, Part IV

Three weeks ago, in Part I, we told you how b-pack, hot on the heels of Ivalua, had decided to cross the Atlantic and join in the conquest to bring the bohemian revolution to the world of Procurement and P2P with their extensive solution suite that actually closes the P2P loop. Then, two weeks ago in Part II, and last week in Part III, we expounded on some additional capabilities, relatively unique in the marketplace, that extended the basic value offering beyond basic P2P. Today we’re going to address one of the advanced P2P capabilities, the tightly integrated document management feature, administration, and the supplier portal. But first, a quick recap of the story to date.

Part I described the base b-pack platform that takes you from the start of a traditional sourcing cycle (RFx), through a contract, to a requisition (which may be from a catalog), against a budget, to receipt of the goods (which can include asset tracking information), and the invoice, to payment, reporting, and supplier management. It covered the requisition, approval, receipt, invoice, matching, payment, and reporting cycle in detail as well as the solution delivery options that are available.

Part II detailed some of the integrated applications that build out the core capabilities to also provide the organization with expense and travel management, asset management, dispute resolution, and procurement business intelligence reporting and Part III addressed inventory management and its integration with asset management, budget management, fleet management, and internationalization.

Invoice management, which was initially discussed in Part I, is fairly sophisticated with a built-in invoice viewer (which can handle invoices in e-mail, EDI, and PDF formats, among others), auto-match capability (at the line-item level against original purchase orders), and multi-way match capability between purchase orders, contracts, and/or good receipts. The auto-match can be manually overridden (and maintains a running total of the reconciled amount against the entire invoice amount so the user can track her progress) and an invoice cannot be approved until it is fully matched against one or more purchase orders (at the line item level) and until all disputes against it are resolved. This goes a long way to insuring that incorrect and fraudulent invoices are never paid, which happens way to often when certain commodities, like office supplies, electronics, and storage space, are being purchased regularly and in large volumes.

Like reporting, document management permeates the system and allows each document to be tracked by way of associated meta-data which includes type, creation date, version, author, language, and other information relevant to the document type. In addition, (related) documents can be organized in a tree structure and a new document can be defined as sequential merge of a set of documents organized in a tree. Contract management is then built on top of this capability and allows contracts to be built up from component documents, where each component is a distinct section or clause, with its own meta-data information that aids in searching during contract construction. Through versioning, a user can quickly build a starting contract from standard clauses and then edit them accordingly using the built in word processor. The contract can then be output to PDF or Word, and if edits are made in the Word version (by the supplier), it can be imported back into the system as a successive version.

In addition, the document management system can store e-mail templates which are sent out when an action is triggered in the system, such as the transmission of a purchase order, the formal notification of a dispute, an automatic alert that inventory replenishment is required, and so on. These templates can be stored in multiple languages, and the proper version will be selected according to the language of the recipient. Furthermore, it’s integrated with the auto-translation utility which, although not perfect, gives you a starting template in another language, which can then be quickly reviewed and corrected by a native speaker.

Administration allows the user to define global display properties, procurement specific workflows, batch processes, usage rights by user, help file additions, and log access rights. Global display properties include price display rules, date rules, fonts, and themes. Procurement workflow properties include request limits, default payment modes, templates, and terms. Batch processes include data cache maintenance, undelivered e-mail management, user session management, database optimization, and invoice file management. The buyer can add specific information to the online help files for supplier use and for internal use. Finally, the administrator can also run data integrity checks, performance checks, link and reference checks, and database optimization.

Whereas some vendors build separate supplier portals for suppliers, which can greatly limit the functionality available to the supplier as most of the smaller shops can only devote so many developer cycles to portal maintenance, b-pack chose to build the supplier portal within the core application. The supplier portal is essentially the same application, but with access limited only to what the supplier is allowed to see and do. When a supplier representative logs in, she sees the same task manager that a buyer sees, which shows her to-do list, in-progress tasks, most recent system access, and available applications and allows her to access her reports, search for relevant information, and define the application settings she has control over. If she accesses the purchase order module, she sees the full workflow associated with the purchase order, but she is restricted to altering information related to acceptance and delivery, attaching notes, and initiating or responding to disputes — buyer side information is locked.

In addition, the supplier (vendor) master is tightly integrated with the core platform and allows the buyer to add and deactivate suppliers as required. For each supplier, the buyer can define basic identifying information, contacts, catalogues, currency, a description of the supplier’s product and/or service offerings, and portal access. The administrator can not only grant access to one or more supplier representatives, but choose what authorizations each representative is granted (in terms of invoice management, dispute management, catalog management, packing slip generation, invoicing, etc.).

In summary, the b-pack platform, which has been under development for ten years and which is very well thought out with respect to its goal of optimizing your back office procurement, provides a comprehensive P2P e-Procurement solution that also includes some very useful capabilities above and beyond the basic procurement cycle requirements that can provide significant additional value to many buying organizations, including the invoice management, document management, and supplier management capabilities described in this post.

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Don’t Forget to Take Advantage of LKE When Upgrading Supply Chain Assets

A recent article over in Inside Supply Management is “shining a new light on asset reinvestment” by pointing out that many companies can save as much as 44% of sale proceeds if they use like-kind exchange (LKE) or “1031” exchange to defer capital gains tax on sold assets when the sale is being used to generate cash to buy new, similar, assets to replace deprecated supply chain assets.

If you plan reinvest the the funds from the same of an asset in a similar or like-kind asset within the IRS established timelines to identify and purchase the replacement asset and conduct the transaction through a qualified third-party intermediary, then you defer the capital gains tax. This can save your organization a considerable amount of money over time if you’re selling over a million dollars of depreciated assets each year as you bring new, like, assets into the mix. As per the example in the article, if you sold $2 Million worth of assets each year and replaced them with like assets, after five years, that’s $10 Million worth of assets sold. If you ended up paying the equivalent of 40% in taxes, that’s 4 Million dollars you lost from cash-flow if all of the assets were replaced.

Seems like a no-brainer to me, especially since it will only cost a few thousand a transaction to have a qualified and knowledgeable legal or accounting firm act as the qualified intermediary, which is a fraction of what you’ll save when you’re selling Million dollar assets.

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