Monthly Archives: August 2009

Strategy in a Structural Break

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Last December, the McKinsey Quarterly published an article on “Strategy in a ‘structural break'” that is even more appropriate now than it was then as the structural break, at least according to some, shows no sign of ending this year. The article, which started off noting that a structural break in the economy is an opportunity in disguise, made a good point … you need a strategy … a real strategy … a cohesive response to the challenge … to survive. This is especially true when the old ways no longer work and you have to change … and chances are, for the majority of companies out there, this is the case.

So what can you do? You definitely have to avoid the phenomenon by which process engenders further process, eventually becoming a self-sustaining buzz and reduce the complexity of corporate structures and transform your business models. You have to simplify and simplify again. Then provide lean central and support services that don’t require business units to spend time and energy coordinating their activities.

So what does this mean for your supply chain? What is your strategy for the structural break?

While it’s hard to say, as each company will need it’s own, unique, targeted strategy to survive, I can tell you this. You need to:

  • adopt a center-led strategy
    that allows you to use the best of center-led and distributed models and uses collaboration software to share best practices and knowledge throughout the organization in an easily searchable and retrievable anywhere, anytime model
  • adopt a dynamic real-time push-pull demand chain model
    it’s a volatile market, and old methods of forecasting, pull-only, and push-only don’t cut it anymore … you have to adapt in real time, pull when you sense a sharp uptake, and have your manufacturer push when they can predict uptakes ahead of you and create optimal production runs
  • organize around the “networked person”, not the organization man
    if you’re not on the move, you’re standing still and … in this economy … if you’re standing still, you’re being pushed off the cliff with the rest of the lemmings
  • implement SaaS or cloud e-sourcing and e-procurement technology
    make sure your entire team can use the applications anytime, anywhere to do their jobs and get what they need, when they need it, at the best value point
  • if you don’t have it, get optimization software …
    and if you have it, use it

    figure out where you’re spending the bulk of your money (by way of a good spend analysis if need be), and get the right optimization software for your needs: if it’s goods or services, get strategic sourcing decision optimization software; if it’s transportation get transportation and network optimization software; if it’s manufacturing and production, get production optimization software … applied against the right problem, you can expect a 10X return … or more … for your investment … if not more!
  • use more consultants
    but target them on near-term and mid-term ROI initiatives until you get your cash flow optimized, then go back to the long term planning

Do We Really Need a Chief Commercial Officer?

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As you may have guessed from my Saturday post where I told you I was going CUCKOO with the endless introduction of CXO positions that aren’t really needed, I have to wonder if we really need a “Chief Commercial Officer”.

If you look at the position description given in the Supply & Demand Chain Executive article which says that it is a single executive leader at the right hand of the CEO whose sole job is to drive growth and ensure integrated commercial success and the one person who can own this responsibility as it touches all divisions — from sales and market to customer service to product development, doesn’t it ring a bell? The first description, as far as I’m concerned, is part of the job description for the COO — Chief Operating Officer and the second description is quite close to part of the job description for the CS(C)O — Chief Supply (Chain) Officer. These two positions should be working together to insure success is achieved on the sales side and the supply side in a consistent and integrated fashion. We don’t need a new position to cloud these responsibilities and needlessly pack the board room table. We just need the traditional roles of CEO, COO, CMO, CIO/CTO, and CSO working in concert.

Just like too many chefs spoil the broth, too many executives screw up the company. Just trust me on this one. I’ve seen it happen too many times already, and even though all my hair is now gone, I’m not that old … yet.

The Z-Score … or ZZZ-score

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A recent Supply Chain Digest piece on what are the best ways to estimate supplier financial risk? noted that while multiple methods may be needed to see the complete picture, the Altman Z-Score is one of the best, if not the best, predictor of bankruptcy risk. In other words, the lower your score, the more likely your firm will be the next to go to financial sleep.

As per investopedia and wikipedia, the Z-score is a model that combines (four or) five different financial ratios to determine the likelihood of bankruptcy using weighted multipliers calculated against refined statistical models. Studies have shown it to be more than 70% accurate in predicting corporate bankruptcies two years prior to Chapter 7 filing.

The relevant ratios combined in the standard Z-score are:

    • (T1) Working Capital / Total Assets
    • (T2) Retained Earnings / Total Assets
    • (T3) Earnings Before Interest and Taxes / Total Assets
    • (T4) Market Value of Equity / Total Liabilities
    • (T5) Sales / Total Assets

And the calculation is: Z = 1.2T1 + 1.4T2 + 3.3T3 + 0.6T4 + 0.999T5

And it makes sense. With this model, a firm is likely on the edge of bankruptcy if:

  • its total asset to EBITDA is high
    which means it’s earnings aren’t enough to sufficiently maintain it’s assets and cover it’s operating expenses
  • its total asset to retained earnings ratio is high
    which means the bank balance is shrinking (and possibly doing so rapidly)
  • its total asset to working capital ratio is high
    which means it doesn’t have enough working capital free to effectively conduct business
  • its total asset to sales ratio is high
    which means it’s not bringing in enough new business
  • its total liability to market value (of equity) is high
    which means that its investments are actually generating losses

Thus, before you enter into an agreement with a (new) supplier for a critical part or service, you should get its financial information and calculate this score. If it’s in the grey area, be sure to hedge your risk. And if it’s low, unless you’re prepared to finance the supplier or even buy it out, run for the hills!

P.S. A recent article on the ISM site describing “watch points on supplier health” contains a sample calculation.

Will This Recession Yield The Return of the R&D Lab?

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If you listen to the doom and gloom economists, this recession, despite Obama’s many stimulus packages, is still going to be worse than the Great Depression. As such, as noted in a McKinsey Quarterly article from late last year, it might be useful to derive “innovation lessons from the 1930’s”. Despite the usual executive behavior of acting “cautiously” and delaying investments until the economy returned, some companies made deep investments in R&D and innovation in the 1930s. DuPont boosted R&D and developed neoprene (synthetic rubber) which was in every automobile and airplane manufactured in the US by 1939. Hewlett-Packard and Polaroid were established. Radio Corporation of America returned to profitability as it shifted towards the television market. At least 400 in-house R&D labs were established between 1929 and 1936. And many of these companies, who were able to attract skilled workers upon the destruction of their un-innovative counterparts, flourished.

For almost fifty years, the R&D labs were the center of innovation, and, arguably, of economic growth until the outsourcing, offshoring, down-sizing and right-sizing crazes hit us. Now they are almost non-existent … and the economy is floundering. Maybe I’m imagining it … but I think there’s a correlation.

Besides, think of the new innovations that might appear if the R&D lab returned. New computational models and architectures for cloud computing that will enable the creation of customized true end-to-end supply chain applications in weeks and not years. New low-energy cooling technologies that would dramatically decrease the costs of refrigeration. Better, cheaper high-efficiency solar panels that can be installed on your hybrid fleets. Cheap 3-d model creators and portable fabrication labs for new product design (like the Sun Modular DataCenter or the Google Container Data Center, but for engineers!). And I’m not even being imaginative yet …

Anyway, long story short, there are three things you should take away:

  1. Only acquire IT from solution providers who are still spending on innovation
    A lot of the smaller solution vendors aren’t doing so well now, and they’ll be hard pressed to compete when the rebound occurs and the innovative providers are releasing new solutions and they are still selling the same solution they had five years ago.
  2. Only source critical, custom components from manufacturers investing in new production technology and process improvement.
    The global decline in consumption has resulted in a significant drop in new production. The manufacturers being hit hardest are those unable to offer lower prices or added value. These manufacturers are generally those running old technology and utilizing inefficient and out-of-date processes. Like the IT providers who are not innovating, some won’t survive. Those manufacturers who have been investing in new technology to create higher quality products faster and cheaper and in lean & six sigma process improvements are generally more stable and more likely to be around for the long haul.
  3. Create a Center-of-Excellence
    Do your own R&D on best practices, market trends, and emerging technology. Then share that knowledge across your global operations. You’ll outperform your competition and become organizational superstars.

CUCKOO

CAO: Chief Administrative Officer

Chief Academic Officer

Chief Analytics Officer

Chief Advisement Officer

CBO: Chief Banking Officer

Chief Brand Officer

Chief Brokerage Officer

CCO: Chief Compliance Officer

Chief Communications Officer

Chief Control Officer

Chief Customer Officer

Chief Creative Officer

Chief Carbon Officer

Chief Consulting Officer

CDO: Chief Development Officer

Chief Disciplinary Officer

CEO: Chief Executive Officer

Chief Ethics Officer

Chief Entertainment Officer

CFO: Chief Financial Officer

CGO: Chief Globalization Officer

Chief Government Officer

Chief Growth Officer

CHO: Chief Health Officer

Chief Humanitarian Officer

CIO: Chief Information Officer

Chief Innovation Officer

Chief Intelligence Officer

Chief Investment Officer

Chief Integrity Officer

CJO: Chief Judicial Officer

CKO: Chief Knowledge Officer

CLO: Chief Logistics Officer

Chief Legal Officer

Chief Learning Officer

Chief Linguistics Officer

CMO: Chief Marketing Officer

Chief Medical Officer

CNO: Chief Nursing Officer

COO: Chief Operations Officer

CPO: Chief Procurement Officer

Chief Privacy Officer

Chief People Officer

Chief Performance Officer

CQO: Chief Quality Officer

CRO: Chief Risk Officer

Chief Research Officer

Chief Revenue Officer

Chief Restructuring Officer

CSO: Chief Supply (Chain) Officer

Chief Strategy Officer

Chief Security Officer

Chief Sales Officer

Chief Science Officer

Chief Staff Officer

Chief Solutions Officer

Chief Suitability Officer

CTO: Chief Technology Officer

Chief Transportation Officer

Chief Telecommunications Officer

CUO: Chief Underwriting Officer

CVO: Chief Visionary Officer

Chief Volunteer Officer

CWO: Chief Web Officer

CXO: Chief eXperience Officer

and now a

CCO: Chief Commercial Officer.

I think we need a Chief Universal Cipher Keeping Ontological Officer, or CUCKOO, to keep track of them all. I know I’m going cuckoo trying to keep track of them …