Monthly Archives: April 2010

SYSPRO: Forecasting and Inventory Optimization for Small & Mid-Sized Businesses, Part I

SYSPRO is an established ERP suite provider (that has been around for over 30 years) that also provides Forecasting, Inventory Optimization, and Warehouse Management solutions in addition to the 40+ other modules that it provides. The Inventory Optimization solution (in SYSPRO 6.1) is one of their newest offerings. It’s built on top of their solid forecasting module and provides SMBs with a good inventory management and optimization solution, especially if they are already running SYSPRO.

While SYSPRO (a Microsoft Gold Certified Partner) isn’t an Oracle or SAP, they are a fairly significant company in the mid-market with over 14K customers in 60 countries that contribute to their 300M footprint. Furthermore, their solution is built on top of the Microsoft .Net platform, integrated with the Microsoft Office suite, and easy to pick up by anyone who is familiar with Microsoft Small Business Products. In particular, if you can use Microsoft Project, you can use their products. This is an appropriate technology stack (and strategy) for most of their target market who are already using Windows and Microsoft (Back Office) Products as it minimizes the new-user learning curve.

Their forecasting solution is quite robust. (For a discussion of forecasting, see the glossary page, which also contains links to some relevant posts.) It allows you to forecast at the individual SKU level and at the product family level, which generally creates more robust long-term forecasts. The forecasting solution can take into account historical data, projected sales, promotions, current stock levels, target stock levels (by location), lead times, and policies and create a (monthly, weekly, or daily) forecast using a variety of algorithms. You can select your preferred algorithm, or let the program choose the algorithm that is the best fit given historical data patterns. The program tracks the current forecast, the draft forecast (revision) under consideration, and the suggested forecast created from the last modelling session, which you can manually alter or revise to create a new draft forecast, which will become the new forecast once approved by an administrator.

The algorithms at your disposal include competition, Holt-Winters additive, Holt-Winters multiplicative, annual seasonal profiles (smoothed and unsmoothed), mean, median, moving average, exponential smoothing (with or without trending), multi-period weighted average (six, twelve, etc.), and a few others. (A good overview of these forecasting models can be found on resample.com.) In each case, the system will generate a forecast and graphically plot it against sales for the last three relevant periods (e.g. if you were forecasting Jan to Dec 2010, it would plot Jan to Dec 2007, Jan to Dec 2008, and Jan to Dec 2009, if available), the current forecast, and the current draft forecast so that you can visually see whether the forecast is in line with historical behavior and what is currently expected. This allows you to quickly spot whether a trend might be out of whack or whether (or not) the revised forecast produces spikes in line with upcoming promotions.

The system will also generate all of the relevant statistical data, including the cumulative forecast error, mean absolute deviation, mean square deviation, mean absolute % error, and tracking signal so that you can check the calculations and understand how much confidence you should have in the result. For each algorithm, it will also allow you to alter any of the controlling parameters (and re-run the forecast at any time). (But you should only do this if you are well versed in the art of forecasting and know what you are doing. However, if you are an expert, it’s great to have all this power to run multiple what-ifs and understand the ripple effects minor deviations in sales trends have on your forecasts, which in turn can effect your optimal inventory strategy.) And, as I noted above, you can do this forecasting at the group / product family level or the individual SKU level. This allows you to quickly generate a robust group forecast and then dive in and alter only those individual SKU forecasts that need to be tweaked to take into account upcoming promotions or new seasonal trends. In addition, you can also restrict the group forecast to any meaningful combination of warehouses, stock codes, suppliers, and product classes — which gives you a lot of power and flexibility in forecast creation. And the more advanced users can set up batch forecasting runs, forecast-over-forecast comparisons, and even Pareto analyses, but this takes us into the realm of inventory optimization, which is the subject of Part II.

In other words, the SYSPRO forecasting module packs a lot of power into a relatively easy to use SMB software solution. And with SYSPRO 6.1, you now get a true Inventory Optimization Solution!

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Is China the Home of the New Cyber Criminal?

A year ago we had GhostNet, a massive cyber espionage network rooted in China that went well beyond simple allegations of spying on Tibetan Institutions. After a 10-month investigation, a network of over 1,295 infected hosts in 103 countries was discovered that included computers at ministries of foreign affairs, international organizations, news media, and NGOs.

Then we had massive cyber attacks that originated in China, including one against Google last December, and now even Google is pulling out of the country (as it must do no evil).

And now, we find out that GhostNet was but a shadow of a much larger Shadow Network (The Globe and Mail) which has compromised sensitive data from at least 16 countries from compromised computers in at least 31 countries (including computers used at Honeywell and NYU), which have been used to gleam Indian missile defence secrets and Canadian Visa applications from its citizens travelling abroad (including applications from the UK). The full findings will be revealed today in Toronto, as the network was cracked by researchers at the University of Toronto’s Munk Centre for International Studies, the Ottawa-based security firm SecDev Group, and a U.S. cyber sleuthing organization known as the ShadowServer Foundation, the real-world Internet Lone Gunmen.

The Full Report is available on line on Scribd and documents how much of India’s defence network has compromised as the computers and systems of the National Security Council Secretariat, Military Engineer Services, Military Personnel (including the Artillery Brigade and the Air Force), Military Educational Institutions (including Army Institute of Technology, the Military College of Electronics, and the Mechanical Engineering College), India Strategic Defence and Force magazines, a number of corporations (including YKK India Private Limited, DLF Limited, and TATA), and Maritime India (including the National Maritime Foundation and the Gujarat Chemical Port Terminal Company Limited) were all breached.

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New and Upcoming Events from the #1 Supply Chain Resource Site

The Sourcing Innovation Resource Site, always immediately accessible from the link under the “Free Resources” section of the sidebar, continues to add new content on a weekly, and often daily, basis — and it will continue to do so.

The following is a short selection of upcoming webinars and events that you might want to check out in the coming weeks:

Date & Time Webcast
2010-Apr-7

 

11:00 GMT-06:00/CST/MDT

Aligning Supply Chain Operations to Achieve Financial Goals

Sponsor: CSCMP

2010-Apr-7

 

13:00 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

The High Quality of Contract Talent

Sponsor: Human Capital Institute

2010-Apr-7

 

10:00 GMT-07:00/MST/PDT

Implement a Global Strategy to Better Manage Your Suppliers

Sponsor: Patni

2010-Apr-7

 

14:00 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

6 Reasons Why You Need To Embrace Cloud Computing Now

Sponsor: Hudson IT

2010-Apr-7

 

13:30 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

New Product Introduction & the Supply Chain: A Process for Ensuring Continuity of Supply

Sponsor: TEFEN Management Consulting

2010-Apr-8

 

11:00 GMT-05:00/CDT/EST

Technology is Just a Tool

Sponsor: Supply Chain Council

2010-Apr-8

 

14:00 GMT-05:00/CDT/EST

Accelerating Lean Six Sigma Results in the New Economy

Sponsor: Industry Week

Dates Conference Sponsor
2010-May-16 to

2010-May-19

JDA Focus 2010

Las Vegas, Nevada, USA (North-America)

JDA
2010-May-16 to

2010-May-19

SAPPHIRE 2010

Orlando, Florida, USA (North-America)

SAP
2010-May-16 to

2010-May-19

15th Annual USMA Educational Conference

San Antonio, Texas, USA (North-America)

USMA
2010-May-17 to

2010-May-21

Executive Management Conference

Napa, California, USA (North-America)

AAPA
2010-May-17 to

2010-May-19

Montreal Manufacturing Technology Show 2010

Montreal, Quebec, Canada (North-America)

SME

They are all readily searchable from the comprehensive Site-Search page. So don’t forget to review the resource site on a weekly basis. You just might find what you didn’t even know you were looking for!

And continue to keep a sharp eye out for new additions!

What Does the New Japanese Consumer Mean to Your Supply Chain?

Editor’s Note: Today’s post is a collaboration between the doctor and Dick Locke, Sourcing Innovation’s resident expert on International Sourcing and Procurement. (His previous guest posts are still archived.)

Japan is a strange little country. (If you don’t believe me, just watch this excellent video on Japan – The Strange Country form Kenichi on Fast Company. [Japanese Version Only at Present, but the Infographics are quite compelling on their own.]) Japan has always had a quirky consumer, who would spend ten times what an item was worth if it had a highly sought after designer logo and then subsist on udon [Japanese noodles] for a month because [s]he spent almost every yen she had on the overpriced cellphone or designer purse. Because of my fascination with the culture that loves to embrace almost contradictory extremes in its quirkiness, I was naturally drawn to a recent article on “the new Japanese consumer” in a recent edition of the McKinsey Quarterly.

In particular, I found the second sentence of the first paragraph to be quite remarkable, especially considering the evolution of the Japanese consumer over the last 30 years: celebrated for their willingness to pay for quality and convenience and usually uninterested in cheaper products, Japanese consumers are now flocking to discount and online retailers. Furthermore, the paragraph ended with a bang, noting that workers are even packing their own lunches, sparking the nickname bento-danshi, or “box-lunch man”. It’s been the sarariman, or “salaryman”, for years and years. That’s quite a shift. And then the article goes on to say that almost half of consumers are spending more time at home as the new sugomori, or “chicks in the nest”, which is remarkable for a culture where the sarariman would spend 12 hours a day in the office, then go for dinner and drinks with his colleagues, then go home for a few hours of family time and rest before repeating the cycle.

So what does this mean to your supply chain? This is where Dick Locke, Sourcing Innovation’s resident expert on Global Trade, chimes in.

By itself, not much.

 

Consumer behavior or other private behavior is less important than work-related behavior. Some of the more atypical Japanese work related behaviors are:

  • High on ‘uncertainty avoidance’.Manufacturing has never been very flexible because long forecast cycles are built into the system.
  • Fairly low (for an Asian country) on ‘power distance’.In spite of all the bowing, decisions tend to be made after multiple level discussions and consensus building.
  • Constant communication with coworkers… which can last long into the night.

The result of this and other behaviors has been a somewhat inflexible manufacturing process accompanied by highly precise conformance to shipping schedules and quality.

These behaviors are based on values, and values change much more slowly than manners, shopping habits and style of dress.

What would be a sign that the new consumer values are affecting the workplace? One would be a more adventuresome sourcing behavior at your supplier. Fifteen years ago companies tended to buy primarily from members of their own keiritstu, a family of companies with common ownership by the same bank. (There’s a story that’s probably loosely based on truth: A Japanese sales person was asked what market share of a product his company has. He replied “100%.” The questioner pressed on: What are your sales to Mitsubishi? The answer was “Mitsubishi isn’t in our market”.)

Look for more attention to getting the best suppliers regardless of ownership … or even nationality. This is problematic. Japanese don’t work well with other Asians because of Japan’s history of invading most of them.

Also, watch for signs of communication breaking down. Karaoke bars and nightclubs provided an important locale for communicating with co-workers when at-work communication was difficult. Based on the trends in the article, you should sell your stock in karaoke bars.

 

And finally look for recognition that flexibility is important.

So basically, this article is of high importance if you are selling in Japan. Buying there? Not so much, but keep it in mind.

Thanks, Dick. (Global Supply Training)

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The Basics of Inventory Optimization

Inventory optimization can be defined as the act of balancing supply and demand uncertainty to meet desired services level at a minimum level of investment. In addition to all of the basic factors of inventory management covered in our last post (namely, production, stock, location, transportation, and information), inventory management also considers all of the associated costs — carrying costs, stock out costs, alternate distribution costs, and lead time costs, and tries to balance them.

As such, an inventory optimization solution will allow you to define:

  • your current production & distribution networks, and any flexibility you have
  • the modes of transportation available to you and associated fixed and variable costs
  • the lane options available to you and impacts on transportation costs
  • current and projected demands by SKU, family, and location by time period (month, week, or day)
  • storage and carrying costs
  • desired service levels by SKU, family, and location
  • projected cycle times
  • production capacity constraints and feasible schedules
  • network and storage constraints
  • current contractual commitments
  • upcoming promotions
  • compliance requirements

As well as your flexibility in terms of service levels and working capital and produces optimal inventory recommendations at different trade-off levels. You can then analyze costs and projected losses at 90%, 93%, and 95% service levels (defined in terms of product availability) and make the best decision that balances working capital tied up in inventory and revenue potential.

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