… so can the telltale signs, and if you don’t even know how to spot those signs, why even look for the ghosts (which are very hard to find).

A recent article over on Dev Discourse on Spotting the Ghosts Using Big Data to Detect Fraud in Government Purchases described the results of a study by the University of Craiova, Romania, Institute of Financial Studies, Bucharest, and three other universities that examined how big data and online systems can help make public procurement more transparent and fair.

They analyzed the data from Romania’s public procurement system in 2023, where the government made 2.25 million purchases that totalled about 3.22 Billion Euros. In this study, the researchers were particularly interested in “exclusive” relationships, where a vendor only works with one public entity. They found that over 14% of all public purchases fell into this category, which is concerning as these exclusive deals can indicate problems like favouritism or fraud because they don’t follow the usual rules of fair competition.

This is just one standard way to identify potential fraud. Other ways, as noted by the article, are to

• look for unusual transaction values,
• look at the geographical distribution of unusual transactions or sole-source relationships (and for clusters in particular) as many happen in specific regions (suggesting that certain areas have higher risks of fraud)
• look at deals that were completed too quickly (such as those completed within minutes of posting) and that were awarded considerably after hours or on weekends,

If you’re not even doing these basics to identify potential fraud, then you’re not ready to look for ghosts in the data.

And when you are doing this, and you’re struggling to weed out the likely fraud in sole-source, unusual transaction value, and transactions completed at weird times, the next step is to do a basic analysis on the supplier. As the report indicates, the correlation between award level and supplier financial performance should be correlated, not inverted. If a supplier with poor financial performance keeps getting sole-source awards, that’s a BIG RED FLAG.

Then, run the standard contract-purchase_oder-invoice matching to make sure the amounts line up. And if you do all of the above, you’ll find more fraud, non-policy compliance, and overpayments than you ever thought possible. No ghosts needed. (But if you ever get to the point that all of the above comes up blank, reach out and the doctor will tell you how to find ghosts in the data as well as ghosts in the machine.)