Myth-busting 2025 2015 Procurement Predictions and Trends! Part 11

Introduction

In our first instalment, we noted that the ambitious started pumping out 2025 prediction and trend articles in late November / early December, wanting to be ahead of the pack, even though there is rarely much value in these articles. First of all, and we say this with 25 years of experience in this space, the more they proclaim things will change … Secondly, the predictions all revolve around the same topics we’ve been talking about for almost two decades. In fact, if you dug up a Procurement predictions article for 2015, there’s a good chance 9 of the top 10 topic areas would be the same. (And see the links in our first article for two “future” series with about 3 dozen trends that are more or less as relevant now as they were then.)

In our last instalment, we continued our review of the 10 core predictions (and variants) that came out of our initial review of 71 “predictions” and “trends” across the first eight articles we found, in an effort to demonstrate that most of these aren’t ground-shattering, new, or, if they actually are, not going to happen because the more they proclaim things will change …

In this instalment, we’re again continuing to work our way up the list from the bottom to the top and ending with “AI”.

AI

“AI” is the only “prediction” or “trend” that would not have appeared ten years ago. (Ten years ago it would have been “analytics”, the favourite precursor technology.) There were 10 predictions across the eight articles, and this was the only category where they were not in synch (because the technology, as well as the usage thereof, is not only still evolving but not well understood). Given the vendor hyper-focus on AI (and especially Gen-AI) over the past few years, it is yet another “prediction” or “trend” that is not new, as we are still in the (over)hype(d) cycle, but one that should be adequately addressed as it’s where we have the biggest gap between expectation (pushed by the vendors and the analyst firms and the consultancies) and reality.

Before we go any further, here were the ten predictions from the articles:

  • Advancements in AI and Automation
  • AI: overhyped or underestimated?
  • AI and The Digital Transformation Revolution will Continue
  • Artificial Intelligence in Procurement
  • Automation and Artificial Intelligence
  • Digital Transformation, Automation, and AI
  • Focus on AI Talent in Procurement and Skill Upgrading
  • From AI adoption to AI adaption
  • Integration of AI and Advanced Analytics
  • We’ll Evolve from AI Adoption to True Integration

They range from continued adoption to adaption to analytics enhancement to seamless integration to true advancement in underlying technology, and with the exception of continued, mostly unbridled, and definitely unresearched, adoption, they are more-or-less all off the mark.

The analyst firms are still overhyping this technology to the max (despite continuing to publish studies that 85%+ of technology projects fail)). At least six (6) in seven (7) vendors are overhyping (Gen-)AI to the max, if not nine (9) in ten (10). The Big 3 (Google, Microsoft, and, of course, “Open”-AI) are promising miracles for all who adopt their technology. It’s being marketed as the ultimate panacea, the magic elixir of your dreams, and the silicon snake oil that actually works (among other things). And when you combine the facts that most people don’t have the mathematical and technological background to understand what a given “AI” technology is and, as Bertrand kindly pointed out, humans are biologically wired to be lazy, most are happy to close their eyes, cover their ears, sing “la la la la la la”, and buy in to the BS promises hook-line-and-sinker. So, whether the technology is right or not (and we’ll give you a hint, it usually isn’t), they’ll buy it. (And then blame the vendor when it fails to deliver, who will blame the consultant for improper implementation and training.)

So how accurate were these predictions? Did any hit the mark? Come back for Part 12!