Category Archives: Best Practices

Good Data Will Not Guarantee Good Decisions … But Informed Skeptics Increase the Odds

In our last post, we noted how great it was to see this recent article in the Harvard Business Review on how Good Data Won’t Guarantee Good Decisions because investments in analytics can be useless, even harmful, unless employees can incorporate that data into complex decision making and only 38% of employees and 50% of senior managers, on average, are equipped to make good decisions given good data. As pointed out by the authors, there are too many “unquestioning empiricists” and “visceral decision makers” and not enough “informed skeptics” who can effectively balance judgment and analysis with strong analytic skills and a willingness to listen to others’ opinions, but dissent if necessary.

As a result, organizations need to do whatever they can to increase the number of informed skeptics within their four walls. So what can they do? According to the authors, they can:

  • Train workers to increase data literacy
    and more efficiently incorporate information into decision making so they can make better decisions and
  • Give the workers the right tools
    to turn the data into information.

With respect to training, the authors recommend workshops and coaching. Workshops can teach them that they must understand the factors and calculations behind the numbers and learn to think critically about the accuracy, sample sizes, biases, and quality of their data. Even people who took statistics in college could probably use a refresher to help them apply what they learned then to their current jobs … especially since most people, analysts included, don’t understand statistics. (Remember that there are lies, damn lies, and statistics.) Coaching by people-oriented data experts can provide informal, ongoing training to employees that can gradually improve their skills. Given that surveys indicate that only 25% of all knowledge workers receive effective training in information analysis and use, this is a good start.

With respect to tools, there is a vital need to interpret data displays in a manner that allows them to deduce the information the data contains. Just because most executives choose to go with good-enough data now vs. perfect data later doesn’t mean it’s the right thing, not because perfect data is always a useful goal (as sometimes good enough is good enough), but because, without the right tools and understanding, it’s not always clear if good enough is good enough.

But is this enough?

No.

Three factors are always required for success: technology (tools), talent (training), and transition (change management of the process). Overlooking how the training is to be applied, the technology is to be used, how the results are going to be interpreted, and how the change from dumb data to intelligent information is going to be implemented so that it sticks, the training takes hold, the technology gets used, and the results get repeated is very important. Otherwise, a few moderate wins will be made, but as pressure mounts to get things done, the talent will revert to the old ways and the tools and training will be for nought.

Invoking Innovation In Your Organization Internally

Supply Management magazine recently ran a great piece on innovation from the head of SRM at Best Buy Europe (where they might have it together better than Best Buy USA where you are not likely to get a Best Buy Experience) on “Creative Industry” where he described the difficulty of jump-starting an innovation initiative in an organization which has not been innovative in a (very) long time.

In the article, he detailed and exemplified an eight step process which is a good starting point for anyone trying to get in an innovative mindset.

  1. Lose the Fear
    Of being judged. Of disappointing others with your idea. Of just plain doing something different. Jamie says to be childlike in your approach and embrace the initiative with excitement. And if that don’t work, and it’s not against your religion, start with martini hour. Inhibitions are bad for innovation.
  2. No Idea is a Bad Idea
    It might not be the right idea for the organization, but it doesn’t mean it’s necessarily bad. In different circumstances, it could be a great idea. All ideas should be captured, and explored, at the right time, in a search for a better idea.
  3. Understand the problem.
    What is the issue? What is the objective? It’s the measurement stick for any idea you come up with.
  4. Diversity is King
    Have both experts and novices in the room. Make sure the novices are not afraid to ask “why can’t we do this”. Sometimes opposition is just knee-jerk. When there is no rebuttal to the question, you’re on the right track.
  5. Get Visual
    Draw. Illustrate. Sculpt clay if you have to. Make a prototype out of cardboard and play-doh. Whatever gets people thinking differently enough to actually innovate.
  6. Safe Environment
    Everyone is equal. No idea is bad. Freedom to speak up and speak out during the brainstorming process. Keep it out of management offices where positions of authority are implicitly conveyed.
  7. Subdue the subconscious
    It has default knee-jerk reactions to everything and default knee-jerk visualizations for every concept and pre-assigned meanings to every word. This gets us through the day, but is not always good where innovation is concerned. (Of course, if you start with martini hour, this may not be much of a problem. 😉 )
  8. Be Committed.
    Almost to the point where a conservative middle manager (who doesn’t understand the importance of relentless innovation) wants to have you committed. It takes a lot of effort to get an innovation project rolling, and even more to keep it rolling until the first positive, revenue-producing, output is produced.

This is a really great starter list and Jamie’s article on “Creative Industry” is really good. Take 5 minutes and read it end-to-end. It’s worth your time.

The New Technology Elite

Coming out in hard-copy form next Tuesday, March 27, The New Technology Elite is the next must-read book on your list (and is already available in The Kindle Store for those of you who want an early start). Vinnie Mirchandani’s latest release on how great companies optimize both technology consumption and production, it is a great follow up to The New Polymath, which chronicled profiles in compound-technology innovations (and which was reviewed here on SI in The New Polymath’s Ten Rules for Success), this book looks at “consumer” (tech) companies that have better technology in-house at a larger scale than most (IT) enterprises. With case studies ranging from the media poster child, Apple, through UPS to Valence Health and Taubman Shopping Centers (yes, shopping centers), it is a fascinating read on how the best product and service companies embrace technology at their core, and utilize it to do whatever they do better, and even innovate upon it in ways that even the big IT shops, who are supposed to be innovating this technology, miss. (For example, UPS had enterprise-ready PDAs [Personal Digital Assistants] long before such technology was generally available in the small business and consumer markets. And, in some ways, they out-innovated shops like Palm and Blackberry.)

The supply chain elite know Apple’s story all too well: optimize the supply chain, optimize the cost, and maximize the profit as the high quality items sell for a premium over competitor’s products. And many of us know about HP’s Quest for a “10 Out of 10” supply chain. And the logistics professionals will know about the decades of technology innovation at UPS, but how many of us know Valence Health, chronicled in Chapter 11?

The US health care system is flawed. As Vinnie astutely points out in Chapter 11 (which is an appropriate location for these factoids as Chapter 11 is a short-form reference to the US Bankruptcy code, and that is the path many traditional health care providers seem to be on), the average cost of health care in the US in 2007 was $7,290 — nearly two and a half times the OECD average of $2,984. And yet, U.S life expectancy, child mortality, and other health metrics are significantly worse than those of other developed countries. Plus, the number of medically uninsured in the US grew 16% from 39.8 Million in 2001 to 46.3 Million in 2008, which left almost 15% of the country uncovered despite record levels of spending. Three of the biggest flaws, according to Stockard (a co-founder of Valence Health) are:

  • Fee-for-service reimbursement
    Providers have no incentive to focus on improving the quality of care to bring costs down as they get paid per service, not per outcome.
  • Lack of population management
    There is no one party responsible for the health of the population as a whole with a focus on keeping people healthy.
  • Inability to measure quality of care
    Lack of comprehensive data across health-care providers and disagreement as to how to measure quality has created a void in measuring the quality of care and outcomes by individual providers.
    There is a lack of evidence as to the impact of different treatment patterns.

To combat some of these issues, Valence Health created an analytics-based product portfolio that provides a turnkey HMO solution capable of administering the financial, actuarial, data analysis, claims payments, customer service, and medical management functions of provider-sponsored health plans across the U.S. This allows groups of doctors and hospitals to come together in a clinical integration practice that allows them to collectively negotiate enhanced reimbursements from healthcare plans, something the FTC won’t allow them to do on their own. This provides a foundation for doctors to negotiate reimbursements based on quality of service and outcomes (instead of having to rely on the quantity of services to reach a profitable reimbursement level). This makes much more sense than a strictly-defined per-service fee as a cured patient will not generate future healthcare costs and is more beneficial to the insurer than a provider who keeps treating the patient indefinitely to cover the costs of having a patient. In addition, the meaningful data that can be pulled from the disparate information systems of various healthcare providers allow these providers to not only define a standard quality of care, but measure it against the benchmark. For the first time, many of these doctors and hospitals can move away from a fee-for-service reimbursement mindset, monitor their population, and measure the quality of care — which is a first step to overcoming many of the flaws of the current U.S. healthcare system. Using technology, Valence Health not only mastered the use of technology in its operations, but disrupted the health-care market.

And this is only one of the many examples of the innovative uses of technology that Vinnie chronicles in his latest tome. Many disrupted and made new markets, when the companies weren’t even looking, and all of them improved operations and customer service. If more companies followed the practices described in this book, maybe it wouldn’t be the case that I’m lamenting that, for the most part, Customer Service Has Gone To Hell in the average organization.

Vinnie starts the book off by quoting Led Zeppelin who always said that this is a song of hope before they performed Stairway to Heaven and it really is a book of hope. It shows that, with dedication and perseverance, companies can use technology to innovate products and operations and take themselves, and their customers, to a new level. Let’s hope that more than a handful of company leaders pick up the book and actually read it — cover to cover — as it is filled with insights well beyond the dozens of deep case studies and hundreds of success story references that it contains.

Procurement Game Plan: A Review Part II.3

Charles Dominick of Next Level Purchasing and Soheila R. Lunney of Lunney Advisory Group recently released The Procurement Game Plan: Winning Strategies and Techniques for Supply Management Professionals. In our first post, we set the stage with The Purchasing Professional’s 10 Commandments. In our second post, we covered the first four chapters of the book that discuss organizational role, supply management strategy, talent, and social responsibility — the stage that a modern supply management professional has to act upon. In our third post, we continued our detailed review with a discussion of the chapters on strategic sourcing and supplier qualification. Our last post began our discussion of the chapters on negotiations, and this post concludes our discussion on negotiations and Part II of our review.

The section on negotiation preparation was a good one. Quoting Benjamin Franklin is extremely relevant in this context. Where negotiations are concerned, By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail is a definite. Sales people spend every second of every minute of every hour of every day trying to figure out how to maximize the sale price, and thus their bonus cheque. You can bet they are preparing every free minute they have, and that they have been trained extensively on the art of the sale. As a result, you need to do as much preparation as you can on the art of the negotiation. So how does a skilled negotiator prepare?

  1. Try to find the win-win.
    If the only way for the buyer to get better terms is for the seller to sacrifice margin, it’s going to be a tough fight. But if the buyer can offer something to the seller that can look like a win in the rep’s pocket — such as more volume than expected, better production batch sizes, co-marketing — which may not cost the buyer much, the pie can be expanded and both sides can win. While the negotiation will still be tough, it is much easier to get a bigger slice of a bigger pie than to try and take the few scarps the sales person has left on margin.
  2. Know thy counterpart.
    You can bet that not only is a good sales person going to be researching everything he can about your organization if a big deal is on the table, but he’s going to be researching you too. Chances are, he’ll know your public Facebook and LinkedIn profile better than you!
  3. Know thy worst enemy.
    Your worst enemy is not your counterpart, but the assumptions you make. If you assume a supplier cannot go below a certain price because of your cost model, then you will never get below that price. But if the supplier has a better than average production process, maybe the supplier’s cost + 10% is lower than your modeled cost + 10% and a better price is obtainable. But if you don’t think to push for it, you’ll never get it.
  4. Use deep logic.
    Know all the potential responses to your arguments and have counter-responses prepared. Leave your supplier counterpart at a loss for words occasionally.
  5. Control the meeting.
    It’s your buy, and your agenda. Don’t let your counterpart make it your supplier’s agenda. That’s just bad news.
  6. Know what the supplier will ask, and have your responses ready.
    What really matters to the supplier rep? Deal size? Volume? Agreement date? Margin? Know this, as these will influence the initial set of questions, and have your answers ready. Plus, be prepared for the universal questions of budget, decision timeframe, and competition.

I also liked the sections on increasing your negotiation confidence, as you need confidence to control the meeting; and supplier’s psychological warfare, as we already know they do this (from our Review of Stephen Guth’s Contract Negotiation Handbook); body language, as this is often key to what some negotiations are thinking; and today tactics, as using all of your ammunition at once could leave you defenceless near the end of the negotiation. But the best section that you could easily miss is the section on tactics that can backfire. While you might think that crying-poor, saving-the-toughest-issue-for-last, and threatening to get-it-from-someone-else might give you some edge, it could result in the supplier just walking away at the worst possible time.

The second chapter on negotiations focussed on negotiating in specialized situations: adapting your game plan for different conditions as some specialized situations require specific negotiation approaches and tactics. Examples are policies, (proposed) price increases, cost breakdown requests, information exchange requests, and mutual cost reduction proposals. The text includes a discussion of each of these, but we’re going to skip through these, and the section on time-and-materials contracts, to negotiating force majeure clauses. In the case of a disaster that causes a significant disruption to your supplier, such a clause can make or break you. (Stephen Guth has discussed these clauses more than once on the Vendor Management Office blog, with one example being his post on “The Get Out of Jail Free” clause [May 27, 2009].) The short-list of what must be addressed should be in every Procurement Professionals’ master checklist:

  1. Will you get to waive exclusivity while your supplier cannot deliver?
    You need to meet your customers’ expectations one way or the other!
  2. Will you get most favoured customer treatment after a recovery?
    And will that be specified?
  3. Can your supplier provide you with a written contingency plan for each event the supplier wants to be defined as force majeure?
    If the supplier hasn’t thought this true, then maybe you need to think through whether they can serve you.

The sections on contract template was also good, but the next section of particular relevance was the section on negotiating with a supplier in another country. The 20 question checklist is a great starting point to discover much of what will be necessary for a successful international negotiation and relationship, and complements both SI’s series on Cultural Intelligence and Overcoming Cultural Differences in International Trade as well as Next Level Purchasing’s course on the “Basics of Smart International Procurement” which were edited and co-created by Dick Locke.

Finally, don’t miss the section on why asking for suppliers’ advice isn’t as dumb as it sounds. Sometimes suppliers might have cost saving ideas they are happy to share in exchange for continued business. You’ll never know if you don’t ask.

This concludes Part II of our review of The Procurement Game Plan. In Part III, after a short break, we’ll discuss managing supplier relationships, measuring performance, and improving performance.

Customer Service Is Going to Hell — What Should Supply Management Learn?

At Home Depot, employees can’t even be bothered to check their systems to find out if they carry an item one aisle away on the shelf. (See SI’s recent series on Home Depot’s snafus that could be the beginning of their end in five parts: One, Two, Three, Four, and Five.) At Best Buy, if you want a manager, you have to get him or her yourself (Part One) and if you want your problem to be solved in a timely manner, forget it as it will take at least three customer service agents a minimum of a half hour to do so (Part II). Unless you want wi-fi porn on the big screen (Storefront Backtalk), you’re out of luck (as there is no best buy experience). And United, not content with breaking guitars, has decided to go all out and mange their switchover of their ticketing, web, upgraded, and related systems so poorly that “United Airlines Should Be Ashamed” (SpendMatters, March 16, — read it!).

In a nutshell, customer service is going to hell across the board, and it’s doing so almost every single time a company places too much emphasis on technology to “automate” and “streamline” customer interactions. Organizations seem to have forgotten that unless you truly are one of The New Technology Elite, technology can never replace talent, systems can never deliver the service a real person can, and any attempt to implement such big data systems in one fell swoop will almost always result in an implosion that rivals the Big Crunch that some physicists predict will occur at the end of the universe (which immediately precedes the Big Bang, as we all know from the late Douglas Adams who told us all about what you see when you go to Milliways, The Restaurant at the End of the Universe).

We should take a lesson from this, as those who do not study the lessons of (very recent) history will be doomed to repeat them. So what should we learn? First, as Jason Busch points out in The Comments to his post on how United Airlines Should Be Ashamed, we should note that:

  • Flex Capacity Matters
    When the technology inevitably fails, real people will be required to handle the situation.
  • Hard-Wired Integration Outside the Cloud Will Always Be a Nightmare
    And this nightmare will become a reality when trying to add new nodes or change out the guts.
  • Communications Matter!
    Upstream with suppliers and downstream with suppliers. Over-communicate and invest the time to keep everyone in the loop! Finger-pointing helps no one.

In addition, we should note that:

  • Big Bang Upgrades Only Result in Big Crunch Failures
    We should have learned our lessons from the FoxMeyer and Nike ERP disasters which caused the bankruptcy of the first and hundreds of millions in losses for the second. If we didn’t, these recent fiascos should show us just what Big Bang upgrades do!
  • Thorough Testing is a Must
    When you have to port hundreds of thousands or millions of data elements from one system to another, test thoroughly. Anything that can go wrong will, and anything you don’t test for will go wrong.
  • A Rollback Option Must Be Available
    There’s a reason relational databases have rollback capabilities. In case of failure, you can always go back to a previous state. In the United instance, the old system should have been left online, and transactions duplicated across the new and old system for at least a few days, until it was clear the new system worked sufficiently well to run on its own. At the first sign of massive failure, the entire new system should have been taken offline and all transactions directed to the old system.
  • The Disaster Recovery Plan Should Be Ready to Go
    And should be communicated up and down the chain well before any transition occurs. Be prepared for failure. You’ll minimize disruption and recover much faster if you do.

What else can we learn?