Category Archives: Blogologue

the doctor Says There’s Nothing Wrong With Fat Client

I recently read an article over at Knowledge @ Wharton on “Software’s Future” where they said that there is a drive toward hybrid desktop/webtop software, that there are limits to both approaches, and that the future for software may be a blend of the best features of both, that really got my attention.

The focus of the article was on the fact that Adobe Systems, Microsoft, and Google recently made new product announcements around advancements that they believe will be the future of software. Adobe with its buyout of Virtual Ubiquity that created a web-based word processor on Adobe’s new software development platform, the AIR, that can run on-line or off-line; Microsoft with its Office Live Workspace that extends Office and allows users to store and edit documents on the web and share them with others; and Google with its “Gears” that allows developers to create web applications that can also work offline. Based on these offerings, the experts at Wharton are predicting that the hybrid software model is going to emerge and take hold and be long-lived.

Furthermore, they are predicting that this new hybrid software model will develop in two phases. In the first phase, web-based applications that offer the same features as current desktop applications will become common. In the second phase, web applications and desktop software will co-mingle and the functionality advantage of desktop software will erode.

Well, this would be a great prediction – if it wasn’t for the fact that phase 2 exists today and has existed for a long, long time. It’s called Fat Client, or Thick Client, and some on-demand software as-a service providers, like Iasta, have been delivering software in this model for years! Now, you might say that it’s not the same because browsers are ubiquitous and fat clients tie you to a single platform, but that’s just not true.

First of all, there’s nothing stopping you from writing your fat client application in Java, which is as multi-platform as you can get. Secondly, should you decide you’re going to use Flash or Flex, you’re not even going to be compatible with every major web browser, yet alone every platform. The most popular browser is still IE and, guess what, that’s Windows only. Microsoft abandoned IE support on Mac years ago. Opera, still not that popular, even though it had most of the innovative features that you find in today’s browsers first, is only PC, Mac, and mobile. Only FireFox comes close to covering today’s common platforms, namely PC, Mac, and Linux, but don’t expect every plug-in or extension you commonly find on the PC to be available cross-platform. Basically, the web-browser is not universal, as not all browsers even support CSS fully and identically, and has no advantage over a well-designed Fat Client in Java.

Thirdly, and most importantly, whereas web-browsers and plug-ins are encapsulated from the underlying operating system and don’t give you a lot of control over local processing and no capability to save or cache data locally, Fat Clients give you the best of both worlds. You can work locally, or over the web. And since there are a number of open source browser projects out there, including the Mozilla technology base that FireFox is built on, there’s no reason a Fat Client can’t include a browser if that’s what you feel you need for that web experience.

Let’s face it, the web isn’t what you see through your browser, the web is a set of services that can be defined and encapsulated in protocols such as HTTP, FTP, SMTP, etc. that constitute the application layer of the internet and that run on TCP/IP. The browser is one way you can view data that is available over the web, but it’s not the only way.

So next time someone suggests “Fat Client”, don’t dismiss it as current generation technology or something that isn’t “web” enough. Done right, “Fat Client” is the hybrid future of software technology. It’ll let you work locally on a document or your own spend data set and then let you collaborate over the web and share your document or data in real time when you’re ready. It’ll let you use your local laptop resources when you’re on the plane and without internet connectivity and a remote server when you’re online. And you don’t have to worry about downtime due to internet failure. Let’s face it – even if you’re SaaS provider does have 99.999% up-time, that’s useless if your local city construction crew accidentally slices through your T3 internet connection and takes your internet connectivity down for a couple of days. So forget about the Thin phase – it’s time to get Fat!

the doctor Thinks Your Brand Is A Terrible Thing To Waste

I know that some of you, especially those of you that only read the intro and / or first chapter to books like Your Marketing Sucks, don’t really believe in the value of the brand – instead believing that what really matters is sales, and marketing efforts that directly impact sales. And if you work in a company where marketing does suck, I can understand why you might think this way. But, as hard to measure and intangible as brand is, it does have value – and for some companies, a lot of value. Do you think Coca Cola is the largest beverage company in the world because it has the best cola? Do you think Microsoft is the largest software company because it has the best operating system? Do you think GM is the largest auto company because they produce the best cars? If so, then I’ll have what you’re having!

A lot of people might prefer coca cola, but if you didn’t know what coca cola was and did a blind taste test with half a dozen no name colas, I doubt you’d get a 9 out of 10 cola consumers agree – or anywhere close to that. Microsoft hasn’t been able to solve basic multi-threading problems in its OS that mainframe systems, such as the Compatible Time Sharing System, solved as far back as 1962. And in terms of quality, I’m not alone in thinking Toyota and Honda have surpassed GM in quality. Lots of industry rankings agree.

But these companies are still #1 in their game – and all Fortune 100 (GM = 3, Microsoft = 49, Coca Cola*1 = 94). In each of these cases, it’s because of their brand. In Coca Cola’s case, it’s because it continues to have the best brand in the world, as per BusinessWeek’s Interbrand rankings. In Microsoft’s case, it’s because it continues to have the second best brand in the world. And in GM’s case, it’s because it was the best car brand for an entire generation – a generation that will likely be loyal to that car manufacturer until they die! That’s brand power.

Furthermore, there are ways to calculate the effect of “brand” value. It’s true that they all have disputable elements, but I think that any method that starts by deducting operating costs (including sales and marketing), taxes, and capital charges from projections based on five years of earnings and then uses standard methodologies (such as those employed by VC firms) to assess and subtract intangibles such as patent portfolio (and associated license revenues), such as what Interbrand does, is on the right track. If after all these deductions from revenue you still have a positive amount, it’s an extremely good bet that a large percentage of this is attributed to brand. In Coca Cola’s case – that’s 67B. In Microsoft’s, that’s 57B. And in Toyota’s and Honda’s case, the brands for the new car buying generation, that’s 28B and 17B, respectively. I don’t know about you, but I think that’s an awful lot of value – value which will dissipate, and quickly dissolve your current Fortune 500 status, if the value of your brand goes away.

And that’s precisely what will happen if you don’t properly manage your supply chain, as pointed out by a recent article in Industry Week that tells you to “Strengthen Your Supply Chain”, Protect Your Brand. Every recall that you’re associated with decreases the value of your brand at least a little in the eyes of a consumer*2. Every time your product is not on the shelf when someone wants to buy it, the value of your brand diminishes a little more. And every time you produce a product that is of poor quality your brand diminishes a little more still. Each of these issues negatively impacts your brand, and not one of them has anything to do with marketing. The sad reality is that even though marketing and advertising may still get most of the credit when it comes to brand building, it’s really supply chain that ultimately determines the value of the brand. Because if supply chain doesn’t deliver, any perceived value created by marketing evaporates like the morning dew on a hot summer day.

So no matter how good you think your supply chain is running, take another long, hard, look. Statistics say you can expect at least one major disruption in the next two years. And if you don’t figure out what that is now, it’s going to happen. And I wouldn’t want to be in your shoes when it does!

Remember, if it’s your brand, I don’t care what contracts you have in place with your suppliers – it’s still ultimately your problem! Passing the buck won’t save your brand – or your ass when the CEO has to take drastic action in an attempt to satisfy shareholders. That’s why I also talk about the larger context of visibility and supply chain management on this blog – so that you know where strategic sourcing fits in the larger picture of supply chain management and have the knowledge you need to do it right. So next time you think you don’t need to read one of my longer essays on the subject, think twice. There might come a day where You might just find that you’re glad you did.

*1 I know Pepsi is 63, but it’s not just a soft-drink company anymore – it’s a snack food company. This move, and associated acquisitions, which started back in 2003-2004 may have moved it up the Fortune 500 list relative to Coca Cola, but Coca Cola is still the largest from a pure soft drink perspective, as well as having the best brand in the world, as per the Business Week Top 100 Brands.
*2If you happen to be a food producer or provider and people became very ill and / or died because of a supply chain failure, your brand value will be impacted very significantly.

the doctor’s Predictions on the Winner of the Talent War

I recently came across an article over on Global Services Beta that said “Talent War 2012: U.S.A. Set to Win”. Needless to say I was stunned – especially since the first paragraph ended on the U.S. labor market is set to become less open and flexible over the next five years amid fears of terrorism.

The U.S. has been winning the talent war not because it has been churning out the most skilled talent pool, but because it has been attracting the most skilled talent pool from around the world! Let’s face it, the US only has an estimated 301M people of the 6.602B people on the planet, or 4.56% of the world’s population. If we assume raw intelligence and capability is normally distributed throughout the world, which is a very reasonable assumption, that says that for every 100 of the best and brightest, the US can only expect to have 5. Now, it’s true that a great education system is often required to unlock a person’s raw potential, but that can be found in most of Europe, South America, India, South-East Asia, and South Africa. Furthermore, China has 1.322B to the US’s 301M and India has 1.130B. This says that China and India are likely to have four times as many people in any best and brightest list you care to come up with for every person the US has on that list. India already has a decent education system, especially in its richer provinces, and China has the cash to throw at the problem.

Of course, it takes more than bodies and education to build a great talent pool – it also takes the right culture – based in a free and open democracy where anyone with the talent, education, and the will to work hard and succeed (and make the country he or she is living in just a little bit better) is welcome. However, right now, the U.S. is more intent on building fences, preventing people from flying, and delaying permanent resident application processing until long after the original visas have run out – and this just doesn’t fit the bill. That’s not the culture that made the US one of the most admired countries in the world or the culture that attracted the best and brightest from all over the world to start new research programs and enterprises that put the US on the global map for everything from Astrophysics to Zoology, including the technology that launched the information age.

So, who will be the big winner? Although I’d like to say it will be a country like Canada and Australia, since they have the right education system and the right culture, I have to go with India. The fact of the matter is that with only 33M and 20M people respectively, countries like Canada and Australia do not comprise a significant percentage of world population.

What about the EU, you ask? Well, they’re too busy buckling under their own Euro-centric regulations that make it exceedingly difficult not to do business within the EU, or working 35 hour work weeks and complaining that even that is too much, to take a leap forward. It’s not just the US that is having problems being competitive (in “One Explanation for the Expanding US Deficit”).

Now I’m sure most of you disagree with this controversial opinion, and if you do, I’d love to hear yours. Just be sure to follow the comment rules and also indicate why you think I wrote this after drinking one too many Pan Galactic Gargle Blasters and getting Yakko‘s anvil dropped on my head.

the doctor Wonders Why The Elephants In The Room Are Often So Hard To See

This is sort of a continuation of last Monday’s blogologue where I wondered if the sourcing nation has a Prozac problem. While thinking about why the new solutions are being ignored when they should be the target of evaluations (and positive feedback, so that even if they don’t work for you today, they will tomorrow), it occurred to me that this is because there is a larger problem – the market is blind to what the true problems are, and most of the big vendors aren’t doing much on the user-education front. The reality is that if you don’t understand you have a problem, and in some cases a big problem, you won’t be looking for a new technology to solve it. Thus, the elephants in the room are often going unnoticed while the vendors focus your attention on the fuzzy bunnies.

In an attempt to make sure they don’t go unnoticed again, I’m going to pull down the blinds they’re hiding behind and expose you to three of the biggest elephants that your vendors might not want you to know about.

Optimization is not a set of reports that tell you the lowest cost supplier by unit cost or landed cost, the ability to calculate the cost of a random sample of award simulations and select the best one, or heuristically simplifying a model until you can run it in the framework provided to you by a third party provider that provides you with an engine – it’s the ability to allow an end-user to build a model that realistically models their situation, allows them to account for all of their costs and business constraints, and then solves that model using sound and complete optimization algorithms (such as those based on MILP) to come up with the optimal award across suppliers. Furthermore, it lets the user create multiple what-if scenarios to see what would happen if certain constraints were relaxed or new constraints were added and then lets the user compare those results side by side.

It’s not electronic invoice presentment and payment or supplier networks or e-Procurement that saves you time and money, it’s compliance – and that requires the ability to match invoices to items to contracts before an invoice is accepted and approved for payment. The fact that an invoice is from a vendor contracted to provide the items in question is not enough – office supplies distributors are notorious for overcharges and electronics vendors are notorious for not adjust pricing downward over time to insure their customers get the “best market price” that is in the contract.

Finally, when it comes to spend analysis, it’s the analysis! I don’t care how much cleansing, categorizing, and enrichment the latest product offers – it doesn’t mean diddly squat if you can’t do the analysis you need to do. Static top n vendors, top n categories, and top n commodity reports on one inflexible cube doesn’t cut it. You need to be able to build multiple cubes on the fly, on arbitrary dimensions of interest, and segment by range as well as rank. It’s not the top 10 suppliers with the greatest percent of spend, it’s the top 10 suppliers with the greatest variance in spend – chances are these are the ones overcharging you. It’s not the top 10 commodities with the greatest percentage of spend – it’s the top 10 commodities being bought off contract as this is where you need to curtail maverick spend first. It’s not the top 10 categories with the greatest percentage of spend, it’s the top 10 categories with the greatest variance in spend across departments or channels – as these are the ones that need better sourcing strategies.

So the next time someone tries to sell you a comparative reporting toolset on top of a simulation engine and pass it off as optimization, ask them these questions. The next time someone tries to sell you a supplier network or EIPP solution as the answer to all your procurement compliance problems, ask them how it automates three-way matching between invoices, goods receipts, and contracts and tags those invoices for human review that are questionable. And the next time someone tells you it’s all about the cleansing, say “no thanks, I’m looking for solutions, not religion“.

The Sourcing Nation Needs You!

As an astute sourcing professional, I’m sure you picked up on Jason’s Busch post last Thursday on “”Who Has Got the Eyeballs Online Spend Management Traffic” where he noted that blog traffic is rising while most of the online publications are flattening out, and in some cases, maybe even falling. This makes sense to me since real bloggers publish solid content and opinions every day while most of the publications only publish once a month, with more frequent updates often being nothing more than polished vendor press releases. However, what I noticed is that the site with the top 3-month average, Purchasing topped out at 319,397 in the Alexa rankings. Furthermore, upon doing my own research where I looked at CIPS, the CSCMP, e-Sourcing Forum, the IACCM, the ISM, Procure Insights, SIG, Supply Chain Brain, the Supply Chain Council, Supply Chain Daily, and Where Next in addition to CPO Agenda, the European Leaders Network, Purchasing, Spend Matters, Supply & Demand Chain Executive, Supply Chain Digest, Supply Chain Management Review, Supply Excellence, Supply Management . com, and Sourcing Innovation, the top site, belonging to ISM, topped out at 293,787. That says there are 293,786 sites out there more relevant than the top ranked sourcing site! And the results from Traffic Estimate aren’t much better. The top site, again the ISM, is credited with a mere 51,000 visits in the past 30 days. To put this in perspective, YouTube is credited with over 246,790,000 visits in the past 30 days. I don’t know about you, but I don’t think we should stand for this.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again – Sourcing – regardless of the name you call it (purchasing, procurement, supply management, supply chain, etc.), is the future of business – not Marketing, not Research and Development, and not Engineering and Manufacturing. Once you reach a certain plateau, you’re not going to double sales. You can create the best product in world, but if you can’t produce it at a price point that makes it affordable and attractive to your target market, then you’ve just wasted time and money. And you can streamline operations all you want, but you still have to pay your people and pay your bills. The real impact comes from smart sourcing!

So what can you do? Download the Alexa Toolbar\ (preferably for FireFox, but you can also get it for IE if you haven’t kicked the MS habit yet*). Then, every time you visit a sourcing related website, you’ll add to the anonymous usage statistics of the #1 site used to estimate web traffic and rank web sites and show the world that the Sourcing Nation is strong and capable of producing, and consuming, some of the best content out there. Then we’ll get noticed and be one step closer to the recognition we deserve.

* Maybe this demonstration of Vista will change your mind!