Category Archives: rants

2020 is Less Than a Year Away. And we still haven’t crossed the supply chain plateau. Part II

In yesterday’s post, we referenced a post from six years ago where we commented on a piece by the Supply Chain Shaman who believed we had reached the supply chain plateau. And while we do not agree that the plateau has been reached, despite the extensive objective analysis of balance sheets, we certainly agreed that progress was, and still is, stalled.

We also referenced our post from a year ago today, where we asked will this be the year we traverse the supply chain plateau, that we believed the root of the issue was manpower capability. And we conjectured the root of the issue was a lack of education. But good information, good training, good consulting, good peer groups, and good courses — while still few and far between — have been available for years now but there has not been much improvement in the overall education level and manpower capability.

And while it’s true that most Supply Chain / Supply Management / Sourcing / Procurement / etc. managers don’t leave college or university with a solid supply chain background, as few institutions offer such programs, with the right foundational program in STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics), the fundamentals of supply chain can be rather easily taught to intelligent and capable STEM grads.

So why aren’t they properly trained — especially when there are professionals out there more than capable of training them? And while supply is scarce, and they command top consulting dollar, when you think about the ROI a top performing team can deliver in just a few weeks (which can be in the millions), even a top dollar trainer can deliver the organization a ROI 10 to 50 times her price.

Well, because at the end of the day, management is not as well-intentioned as the Shaman or the doctor gave them credit for. Or, more accurately, their good intentions are more focussed on what’s good for them or their management peers today, not what’s best for the organization (and, at the end of the day, the shareholders) over the long-haul.

That’s why, year after year, when dollars get tight, the training budget is the first to get cut. Management believes that when times are tight, spending should be cut, and rushes to be the first to cut their budget to look good in the eyes of the CFO and CEO. Instead of investing today to take more off the bottom line tomorrow, they take the short-cut to look good today.

Instead of going over budget and buying a modern, 3rd generation, S2P platform, they cheap out and buy a first generation or low-cost, low-capability, second generation platform with limited capabilities that limits the eventual performance gains the system can provide to one that barely makes sense. A 3x ROI with an average 2% to 3% savings vs a 5X to 10X ROI with a 5% to 10% savings.

Instead of owning up to their own incompetence and own short-sightedness, they hire analysts and consultants to do market assessments and find ways to blame the market, the supply base, the systems, or even the staff instead of themselves.

In other words, we haven’t reached the plateau yet because less-than-well-intentioned management won’t do what is necessary to hire and elevate the organizational manpower to the skill levels necessary to scale the walls that surround the plateau and hide the even higher plateau blocked from view.

And while this is a dark and dreary view, what other reason could one give?

2020 is Less Than a Year Away. And we still haven’t crossed the supply chain plateau. Part I

Six years ago tomorrow we commented on a piece by the Supply Chain Shaman who believed we had reached the supply chain plateau. This was based not on a gut feeling, but on an objective analysis of balance sheets of process companies over the course of a decade. The result: the average process manufacturing company has reached a plateau in supply chain performance. As bluntly stated:

Growth has stalled. To compensate and stimulate revenue, the companies increased SG&A margin by 1%. However, the conditions were more complex; the average company, over the last ten years, experienced a decline of 1% in operating margin, and an increase in the days of inventory of 5%. While cycle times have improved, the majority of the progress has come from lengthening of days of payables and squeezing suppliers.

And while SI still believes, as it did last year, that we have not reached the plateau, SI believes that growth is still stalled. As the Shaman conjectured, complexity has increased, but many well-intentioned executives still lack the understanding of the supply chain’s potential or how to manage the supply chain as a system. So while select projects in the hand of gifted buyers, departments as a whole are not performing as well, and often being managed even worse.

The core problem has not changed — manpower capability has not kept up. While leading vendors are building assisted intelligence technologies (and a few are experimenting with augmented intelligence technologies on the way to delivering cognitive, almost AI, experiences), the average organization, if they are lucky, are running on first generation Sourcing and Procurement systems from the early 2000s. And if they aren’t, they are running on spreadsheets and thoroughly outdated ERPs (as noted by the Supply Chain Shaman in the aforementioned article).

A year ago tomorrow we conjectured, in our post where we asked will this be the year we traverse the supply chain plateau, we conjectured the manpower capability issue was a lack of education. While the average practitioner is not educated enough, it’s certainly not a lack of education opportunities, so we’re obviously still missing part of the puzzle.

So what are the missing pieces?

M&A Mania – Will it Ever End?

As per our posts on Sourcing Innovation earlier this year, the M&A Mania has been in full swing for the past couple of years, and as per the acquisition news that came out Monday, it seems the mania hasn’t abated. But will it abate in 2019?

We hope so.

Sometimes M&A makes sense, but sometimes it’s too much too fast. The theory behind M&A is that it’s easier for the customer to have all the related solutions under one vendor’s roof than three, four or six when they need to build an end-to-end S2P support solution than to have to deal with six vendors when they have integration issues, support issues, or system errors.

It’s a great theory, but it doesn’t work any better in practice if all a vendor is doing is buying up smaller vendors to sell them under one roof. If all of the development teams are separate, all of the product management teams are separate, and all of the support teams are separate, you’re still trying to sync with six different groups in order to resolve integration issues, support issues, or system errors. What difference is it if they are under one roof, three roofs, or six? From your perspective, none at all!

The reality is that it doesn’t help you as a Procurement Practitioner at all if the solutions aren’t integrated, and we don’t just mean data-based end-point integration — where it’s easy to push data out of one tool and pull it into the next. It has to be a deeper integration that integrates process and workflow. And that type of integration doesn’t happen fast. It takes many months in the best of cases, and many years in the worst.

So when a vendor goes on a buying spree, without forethought as to how it’s going to integrate all those solutions into a cohesive platform in a reasonable amount of time, it’s just bringing the integration and support nightmare for its clients under one roof, and not adding any value.

The best M&A is when a company buys a company with a great complementary solution and then steps back, takes the time to get the teams fully integrated and the solution integrated at least at the process level with its solution (not necessarily deep workflow configuration but more than just end-point data integration), and only then thinks about the next acquisition.

Right now the big players have made so many acquisitions that the doctor thinks they are all at full capacity to manage integrations, and in a couple of cases, maybe beyond. So he certainly hopes that the M&A Mania winds down, at least until there is settling across the space.

Plus, any company that acquires too many solutions too rapidly puts itself at risk of acquisition by someone bigger still. Just look at what happened to CA Technologies — the Acquirer became the acquired … by a hardware company! The last thing we want is a big S2P play to be acquired by a big hardware or generic platform vendor that doesn’t understand the space.

One Hundred and Forty Nine Years Ago Today …

An American Legend was born when Jesse James commits his first *confirmed* bank robbery.

What does this have to do with Procurement? Besides the fact that, when you think about it, many suppliers will rob you blind on a daily basis if you are unprepared during the negotiation, during the invoice review, or during the warranty process.

Well, if you think about it, sometimes if you want to get famous, you have to take big risks.

But, more importantly, if you take risks, you can get famous … but in the case of Procurement, you don’t have to rob a bank to make money. You just have to get smart about how you buy. There are savings to be had in every category, and all you have to do is find them to bring millions to the bottom line.  And take the risk of doing something new.

And all you need to do to figure out how is to read the archives, strategy, process, and the tools you need to make it all happen.

Are You Sick of the “Digital Transformation”?

the doctor is certainly sick of the terminology. Not a day goes by that some backwoods yahoo doesn’t think this makes the perfect headline, twenty years after we were introduced to specialized Procurement tools, almost thirty years after the introduction of the ERP, and more than forty years since specialized MRP systems were introduced to the market. The “digital transformation” is now new and hasn’t been since the internet evolved to the world wide web and every software company started transitioning to the cloud (which, by the way, is just someone else’s computer!).

the doctor is also sick of all the article stating that the digital transformation will not displace (real) Procurement professionals because that’s obvious. Besides the fact that we are nowhere close to real AI systems, most of Procurement today is not number crunching. It’s fire-fights. Stakeholder-pleasing. Countering disruption blights. Supplier appeasing. It’s a lot of relationship management, which is something a piece of software just can’t do. (There are a few good SRM platforms that enable SRM, but they do not accomplish SRM — that is accomplished by the expert relationship managers that astutely use the system.)

the doctor is also sick of the futurists who are stuck in the past and still predicting a great digital renaissance to come. Our collective IQ has dropped since the renaissance started; Twitter is making us dumber than goldfish (and you wonder why the doctor despises Twitter); the more we trust the machine, the more blind we become to the risks involved; it’s creating an unparalleled digital divide worse than anything William Gibson and his Neuromancer mind can come up with; and Ready, Player One might be the best possible future if we continue down the current road (assuming a certain dictator-want-to-be doesn’t start World War III first).

For better or for worse (and its for worse if we don’t stabilize our power grids and shield the hard drives that contain all of the data that drives our economy, as a natural EMP could wipe out economies in a second), we’re going to keep moving down the digital highway at ever increasing speeds, which means pending something drastic, the next twenty years are going to the be the same as the last twenty and all this hullaballoo about digital transformation, at this point, is just unnecessary noise.