Is China Proving that International Trade is a Zero-Sum Game?

Recently, state-controlled Sinopec spent $4.65 billion (US) to become the first Chinese multinational to buy a direct stake in a major producing oil-sands project in Alberta (Canada) and buy out ConocoPhillips‘ 9% stake in Syncrude Canada Ltd (which is the trophy of Canada’s oil sands projects, producing 350K barrels a day). According to the Globe and Mail, the deal represents the next stage in Chinese investment in the oil sands, as Beijing-controlled companies scour the globe for energy resources and look to diversify the country’s growing imports away from the Middle East.

Sinopec is a subsidiary of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., which started buying into Canadian Energy projects in 2008 with an initial purchase of a 40% interest in the proposed Northern Lights project in northern Alberta. (It is now a 50-50 partner with France’s Total SA.) China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. is also active in Canada, and will acquire a 60% stake in Athabasca Oil Sands Corp.’s Mackay and Dover projects, a 20% stake in Vancounver-based Teck Resources Ltd, and, in turn, a 20% share in Suncor Energy Inc.’s Fort Hills oil sands project. This is in addition to other holdings in Canada, Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, and the Middle East.

Wondering what it all meant, I asked Dick Locke, SI’s resident expert in international trade. This is what he said:

 

Well, it means that sometimes international trade is a zero-sum game. That’s when multiple countries chase a disappearing resource.

The US is ill-equipped to deal with this one. Our government and opinion-makers are captured by the duology (if you’ll allow this as a word) of oil producers and car manufacturers who are very conservative about energy strategy. Our population patterns have way too many people living on large lots beyond the reach of effective public transport. China is doing a great job in both solar and wind power development. You probably saw that Applied Materials moved their solar cell manufacturing site and technical expertise to China (Technology Review).

While the Chinese government has real problems with human rights, it does think long term and is doing what’s best for its people in this aspect.

In other words, China knows that it needs more energy than it’s currently producing if it’s going to continue to support and modernize its population, and that, just as the world is looking to China as a producer of consumer goods, China needs to look to the world as a producer of energy … and will have to spend much of what it is making to acquire that energy. At some point, the outflows will have to equal the inflows and international trade will China will become a zero-sum game.

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