AMR Reads the Supply Chain Tea Leaves …

… and probably proves that that they have not yet mastered the art of tasseomancy because, if I was going to bank on any predictions on who will rise in the coming year, I’d rather take my advice from a cartoonist than bank on their supply chain top 25 predictions.

Of their seven “rising” predictions, I wouldn’t bet on the following four:

  • Research in Motion (RIM)

    Apple & Droid are both taking the market by storm, taking turns leading the monthly sales numbers … and neither are fans of Microsoft (Apple is a direct competitor and Google has banned windows from its campuses), who continues to take a beating in the marketplace; in contrast, RIMs back-office integration is Microsoft (Exchange) heavy

  • Hewlett-Packard (HP)

    HP might be doing well in the enterprise (server) market, but it faces tough competition from IBM, Dell, and Sun, which now has the financial clout of Oracle behind it; on the consumer side, it’s Windows-centric, and Apple keeps rising while Microsoft keeps falling

  • Nokia

    With six of the top ten cell phone manufacturers in Asia (3 in China, 2 in Korea, and 1 in Japan), and with the output of the Chinese manufacturers rising rapidly with a rapidly increasing local market size, how much longer do you think Nokia is going to retain top spot?

  • Johnson Controls (JC)

    This kind of says it all: the company dropped like a stone this year, as the weak economy hammered its financials. It’s unlikely this US-based company is going to see a quick recovery.

And while I expect the following two to hold rather steady, I don’t see a rapid rise:

  • Kraft

    Kraft is solid, but given their primary vertical, I don’t see a rapid rise in demand for their products.

  • General Mills

    General Mills is also solid, but given their primary vertical, I don’t see a rapid rise in demand for their products either.

    Plus, both these companies are heavily dependent on retailers, whom AMR expect, as a group, to fall this year!

In fact, the only “rising” prediction I’d agree with is:

  • LG Electronics (LG)

    This Korean electronics giant is currently the third largest producer of mobile (smart) phones in the world and is aggressively pushing its way across the electronics vertical(s), backed up by a serious effort to revolutionize its supply chain.

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