We already knew that food prices are rising considerably across the board. They’ve risen so much (29% in the past year) that the World Bank estimates that 44 Million people have been forced into poverty since last June as a result.

If this isn’t enough, thanks to the skyrocketing price of cotton (which has more than doubled in the past year, hitting all time highs), clothing prices are set to rise 10% this spring. Considering that the average household spends about 15% of their budget on food and 5% on clothing, which are not discretionary expenses, the average household is now looking at a total increase in their non-discretionary food and clothing expenses of 5%. Given that, after housing, food, clothing, transportation, health care, insurance, and debt payments, the average household had less than 15% of their funds for discretionary expenditures, this says that the average household now has less than 10% of their funds for discretionary expenditures. That’s a 33% reduction in discretionary funds in less than a year!

This says that any company that provides a discretionary product or service to an average consumer is now fighting over a market-share that might have shrunk by a 1/3^rd. Someone is going to lose and someone’s market share is going to get smaller. This means that a number of supply chains are going to have to get a lot leaner this year for those companies to survive. Is yours ready?