In a recent LinkedIn Post, THE PROPHET, a year late to the party (see the SI and Procurement Insights archives, and our Marketplace Madness post in particular), finally announced that Winter is Coming: The Great Procurement (and Broader) Legacy SaaS Rationalization and that it is going to be a very cold winter that will be Swift. Brutal. And very, very final.
There’s too many companies that took too much funding at too high a valuation with nothing to show. PE firms will be dropping these companies faster than a hot potato into boiling lava pits to focus on the companies in their portfolio with current year-over-year growth in hopes of making some of their losses back. Too many companies started without doing any research and literally built the 10th AP clone, SXM clone, RFX clone etc. of a dozen already existing solutions. (Just check the mega map if you don’t believe me.) In a race to the bottom (which helps no one), they’ll lose due to their lack of a bank account as they slash prices too deep in hopes of getting customers. Too many applications took a silo focus, didn’t build Open API centric, and the hurdles of plugging them in will be too much or too costly, and no matter how good the tech is, they won’t get bought.
And then Agentric AI will thin what remains (but not lead the cull as THE PROPHET predicts, because these AI solutions still cost money, and sometimes a lot of it, and for what they cost you can hire a real expert and not a fake one, license a few augmented intelligence tools for a quarter of what these over hyped Agentric AI platforms are charging (because they raised, and wasted, too much cash and have to recoup that before they become the next hot potato dropped into the lava pit by their PE investors), and have a super-human employee who does the work of an entire team, error free (with little to no risk of that skilled employee getting you sued as a result of a conversation, installing a back door for hackers on your systems, shutting down your systems for days, costing you 10X on a purchase due to a dot transcription error, or increasing your internal fraud [link]).
And for some of these companies, it’s already too late to pivot. For others, there are actions they can do. THE PROPHET offered some:
- risk over-cutting
(if done smartly) - consumption-based models
(which will be more attractive to some potential customers) - challenge the team to earn their existence
(but that doesn’t necessarily mean prompting GPT like a pro: you don’t want junkies) - redefine the sales org
(a better playbook is key, and it needs to be differentiated) - Skip the Fairy Dust and Buzzwords
(Hear! Hear! I’ve been shouting that for years! Unfortunately, not sure most of the companies out there know how to do that though! I know for a fact only the squirrels have been listening to me, and they are getting very tired of that rant. They like variety. Basically, it’s been a long, long time since marketing focussed on education and value and startups priced based on that.)
And that’s just the tip of the iceberg. SI has posted entire series on:
- Best Practices,
- Smart Companies,
- Dumb and Dead Companies … which outline precisely what you shouldn’t do because, while it’s impossible to guarantee success (although certain actions will greatly increase the odds), it is possible to guarantee failure
Failures from those who raised too much and offer too little will be coming fast and furious. This needs to be repeated. You need to be very careful which vendor you buy from and what protections you have in place if they don’t make it. (In particular, there must be a “we own our data” clause which gives you the right to all of your data and the right to export all of it into a standard file format at any time, and that specifies your data includes rules and workflow configurations and the right to export those too — for example, in spend analysis, it’s not just the data, it’s the rules that create the cubes; in invoice processing, it’s the workflow and approval rules … you won’t be able to migrate to another system quickly if all you have is the transaction data, the data that defines the processes and rules is just as important. And if you can’t export all of your data, rules, templates, etc., at any time, then don’t buy the system!)
However, while the app consolidation will be brutal, as will the renegotiations if you want to be one of the apps that make it (now that organizations are realizing they don’t need 17 apps for S&M and probably shouldn’t have 17 apps in any function, including Procurement), Agentric AI (especially at 20K a month when you can hire a REAL person for 1/4 of that) will not replace people en masse (but AI-enabled technology will). Teams will be cut and replaced by two individuals who can use next generation augmented intelligence solutions that can truncate months of research and analysis to a few days and allow strategic decisions to be made in hours, not weeks, and shifts to be made seemingly overnight while eventually allowing 99% of all tactical data processing to be automated through evolving rules and workflows under expert guidance.
Moreover, at the end of the day, relationships are not built on 1s and 0s, and they are needed now more than ever. So not only will we have skilled technologists, but skilled relationship managers. (While everyone else who does nothing but push e-paper 90% of the time or code spreadsheets will slowly be eliminated.) Of course, this means if you don’t understand optimization, analytics, statistics, game theory, economics, and logic, or you’re not an expert in relationship management, you’re screwed, but everyone had a chance to study STEM in University (and skip the woke liberal arts) and learn the technical skills for the first set of jobs.
So this also means if the platform is not enabling this next generation of employees to become more and more productive over time, its lifespan is probably short.
So get focussed in your diligence efforts on solution acquisition if you don’t want your platforms disappearing out from under your virtual feet, and if you need help, call an expert!