Category Archives: China

Are You Really a Futurist if You Predict a Future That’s Already Here?

I found a recent article over on SupplyChainBrain on Five Fearless Visions of the Future very entertaining, and not just because I found a few of the predictions to be out of left field, but because some were not really predictions at all … as the predictions were simply describing the current state of affairs.

Consider the following:

  • The cloud is upon us.
    The “cloud” has been hovering over us for a few years now. There’s been a strong movement to SaaS for the last five years. When even companies like Ariba buy SaaS players and start converting all their legacy systems to SaaS, you know its time has come.
  • Companies that blindly outsourced their manufacturing to Asia will start bringing some of that capability back to the U.S.
    Already happening. I’ve been reading articles all year about companies that are pulling manufacturing back to North America, and not just Mexico. Area Development had a good article back in January. Yes, there are still more companies on the outsourcing bandwagon than off it, but it’s already started. Outsourcing will continue, but not for items with high shipment costs or low production costs where it makes more sense to produce them locally. Also, we’ll start to see more service outsourcing. With goods, you have to deal with ever-increasing shipment costs, but with services, it’s just the cost of the pipe that carries the bandwidth.
  • We are in the midst of a transition to electronic software delivery.
    This was my favourite as you’d pretty much have to be Rip Van Winkle to come up with this one. When was the last time you bought software that came in a box? That wasn’t out-dated the minute the CD was burnt? If this were 2000, it would almost be timely. But this is 2010!

When you get right down to it, the only good prediction that wasn’t either already happen or mostly obvious to anyone knee-deep in supply chain was Jim Miller’s (of Google) prediction that Fifteen years from now, the world will realize that China is not the juggernaut that we make [it] out to be. The nation faces a number of systemic problems, including the prospect of the mother of all real estate bubbles. Here, here! They won’t be #1 GDP for another 2 decades, and then they’re going to have to face all the problems the US has faced since WWII. They’ll always be a major player, but they won’t be the only one.

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Time to Stop Worrying About China

Yes they’re the number two economy and yes they will reclaim their spot as the number one economy in thirty (30) to forty (40) years, but they’re not worth all the attention they’re getting. As per this recent article in The Economist on Chinese Acquisitions, China owns a mere 6% of global investment in international business. That’s less than 1/15th. Compare that to Britian’s stake in international business in 1914 or America’s stake in international business in 1967 when they both held about 50%, or 1/2, of global investment in international business, and you see that there’s really nothing to worry about.

Since most developed world markets have rules in place that insure that no global investor can divert business away from the home country or export trade secrets or compete in a monopolistic way, the rules we have in place for foreign investors right now are good enough. There’s no point wasting time and money developing special rules for China, especially when most of our economies need our attention as it is. And as far as our supply chain is concerned, how about we spend the time and effort making sure they are adhering to our regulations and safety protocols instead? After all, even when they become the dominant economy, they’re not likely to be more than 20% of global GDP (especially since the rest of the BRIC countries are expected to increase significantly in GDP as well) or control more than 20% of global investment. And while 20% is significant, it’s far from majority control. Time to stop the much ado about nothing and get back to business.

Cultural Intelligence IV: China

This series is edited by Dick Locke, SI’s resident expert on International Trade, author of “Global Supply Management — A Guide to International Procurement” (which was the definitive guide for almost a decade), and President of the Global Procurement Group and Global Supply Training which regularly gives seminars on International Trade and working with International Cultures.

As highlighted in last year’s post on Overcoming Cultural Differences in International Trade with China, China is one of the most developed cultures in the world, with a long history behind their well establish social order, which requires an inequality between any two people to maintain stability. (That’s part of the reason that the Chinese generally believe that all foreigners — who are traditionally inferior, corrupt, decadent, disloyal, volatile, barbaric, and devils-in-disguise — are inexperienced in matters of business even if they are technically competent.) As a result, dealing with the Chinese can be very difficult for an outsider, and a North American in particular.

With respect to Locke’s seven key cultural differences (first outlined as six in his classic text on Global Supply Management), China has an implicit power distance between any two individuals (which is higher in the North than in the South), a monochronic approach to time in business, and a strong distaste for uncertainty. Maintaining harmony and face is of utmost importance, individuality is not, but privacy is deeply respected. They may ask blunt questions about your personal situation and beliefs, but that is only to understand what may offend you (so they can avoid doing it). After all, they praise virtue to the point that two mutually exclusive answers can both be true if both are virtuous.

Verbal communication in China is very indirect where business is concerned. Since harmony and face must be maintained no matter what, all answers are soft, there are no admissions of a failure to understand, and direct “no”s are effectively taboo. That’s why you can’t ask them a yes/no question. If you want to know if they understand a request, you have to ask them what they are going to do. Thus, you should be calm and polite in negotiations and avoid getting loud. However, the opposite holds true in social encounters. Socially, it’s okay to be boisterous, and it is expected at meals (at the appropriate time). And you can be quite loud, especially if laughing at yourself.

Non-verbal communication is effusive in their society, hard for an outsider to read, and even harder to master. As a result, you should avoid large gestures, as many are taboo (including the pointing of the index finger, finger snapping, and whistling), and maintain an impassive facial expression during business (as frowning is a sign of disagreement and smiling can be simply a polite way to mask uncertainty or uneasiness). Eye contact should be avoided in greetings as almost everyone is unequal and respect must be maintained, emotions should be reserved until you know the right times to display them, and you should allow them to dictate the distance between you, which is usually at most 3 feet (and just enough to respect your privacy in accordance with their cultural norms) as they will often speak quietly to avoid disturbing others who may be nearby. Finally, you must avoid personal contact (unless they touch you, at which point you may reciprocate in kind) as the Chinese generally don’t like to be touched. As with many Asian cultures, touching is reserved for (close) friends and peers.

As per our last post, meetings primarily exist to gather information (and decisions will be made back at the office). Once they get to know you, negotiations will get progressively detailed to the point where the questions are so precise that it will be almost impossible to answer them without disclosing your IP. This is common practice to make sure you are truly interested in a mutually beneficial long-term business relationship and not just looking to exploit cheap labor. It has nothing to do with your IP (although IP theft is a serious problem in China and you have to invest equal effort to insure that they are also interested in a long term business relationship). And meals, while they may last hours and get loud and boisterous later on, are formal. You must not discuss business until the host brings it up. A few other pointers is that he who extends the invitation always pays (but you can pretend to fight over the bill to gain points), you must eat hearty to please the host, but you must leave some food on your plate when you are full.

Finally, one other point that you should remember is that the Chinese will often disparage their own accomplishments and there is a social protocol to this. Specifically, you are expected to respond with a complement. For example, if a Chinese person says that he may not have chosen the best restaurant for you, do not say something along the lines of “we’ll manage“. Instead say that you’re sure the restaurant choice is impeccable and/or that he outdid himself in its selection.

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Are You Ready for the Asian Juggernaut?

Forget the European Union. That’s old news. According to the World Bank, their combined GDP didn’t exceed the US GDP in 2009. Once China, which now has the 2nd largest GDP of any country in the world, combines with India, which might only have the 10th largest GDP now but which is expected to be the 3rd largest GDP within 30 to 40 years, Asia Major will be the dominant market force on the planet.

And if you’re thinking that they’re oil and water, and can’t mix, it would appear that recent headlines are indicating otherwise. China is moving into India, with a recent example being SANY Group that opened a new plant in Pune, India earlier this year, and India is moving into China, and Tata Communications just opened a new data center in Singapore to meet the growing IT needs of the region, and China in particular.

A new world will soon be upon us, and it will be ruled by the Asian Juggernaut. (Whedon’s vision of the future where we speak a mix of Chinese and English isn’t far off!)

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Undervalued Currencies, Part II

Editor’s Note: Today’s post is from Dick Locke, Sourcing Innovation’s resident expert on International Sourcing and Procurement. (His previous guest posts are still archived.)

In our last post we discussed the undervaluation of the yuan, introduced the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) rate as a measure of the relative valuation of a currency, and reviewed the background behind the PPP rate. In this post, we’ll cover the determination of PPP rates, the calculations necessary to determine value against the US dollar, and list some countries with large differences between the PPP rate and the actual rate.

The Determination of PPP rates

You can look them up in a very wordy and meandering World Bank publication. However, the World Bank does not update values very frequently. The most recent data is from 2005. The CIA in the United States publishes an annual World Factbook. It has data that enables an easy calculation of current PPP rates.

The Factbook shows GDP at both PPP and “official” exchange rates. In the case of China in 2009, GDP at PPP rates was 8.789 trillion U.S. dollars. (Note to non-U.S. readers: A trillion in the U.S. is 1,000,000,000,000.) GDP at official rates was 4.814 trillion dollars. Because both GDPs are conversions of the same amount of yuan, if you know the official rate simple algebra will give you the PPP rate.

How can you find the “official” rate? In most cases, it’s the actual rate. If you use the “Historical Exchange Rates” facility at oanda.com, it will give you an average exchange rate over a period of time. The average rate in 2009 was 6.841 yuan per dollar.

That means the PPP rate was 3.74 yuan per dollar. (I left the algebra to you.)

Calculation of Over- and Under- Valuation

There’s a big difference between 6.84 and 3.74. How big? First you need to re-express exchange rates into dollars per yuan. That means simply inverting each value, or dividing it into 1. If there are 6.84 yuan per dollar, each yuan is worth 14.62 U.S. cents. At 3.74 yuan per dollar, each yuan is worth 26.69 cents. The difference between the two values is 11.93 cents. Take that difference (11.93) and divide it by the PPP value and you get .452, or 45.2 percent of the PPP value. That means the yuan is undervalued against its PPP value by 45.2%.

Other Countries

If you do similar calculations on other countries, you get results that will dispel any notion that floating currencies settle near the PPP rate. You will also see that China isn’t different than many of its competitors.

With this method, some countries’ currencies are undervalued against the U.S. dollar. In turn, the U.S. dollar is undervalued against some countries’ currencies

Countries Undervalued against U.S. dollar Countries against which the U.S. dollar is overvalued
Country Amount
India 69%
Taiwan 50%
Thailand 45%
China 45%
Malaysia 40%
S. Korea 40%
Singapore 30%
Mexico 29%
Brazil 26%
Country Amount
Germany 14%
Italy 20%
France 23%
Japan 26%
Ireland 29%

Summary

  • PPP rates are calculated based on consumer purchases, not industrial products.
  • China is one of several countries that have both currency controls and an exchange rate that is significantly different than the PPP rate. However, removing controls and floating a currency does not guarantee it will reach PPP rates.
  • Individual buyers (and sourcerers) should not concern themselves with official PPP rates because these consumer-oriented rates may be very different than the rates for the particular product a buyer is handling.

Thanks, Dick! (Global Supply Training)

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