Category Archives: Finance

Is Your Supply Chain OCF? Part I

Is it? Well, if it’s any good, it’s probably Obsessive Compulsive about Finance, but that’s not what I’m referring to. By OCF, I’m referring to the Operating Cash Flow Metric that some are claiming is the right way to measure supply chain contributions to the organization, and, as such, the measure that should be used in place of EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest Taxes Depreciation and Amortization), ROI (Return On Investment), or ROIC (Return On Invested Capital).

Operating Cash Flow refers to the amount of cash a company generates from the revenues it brings in, excluding costs associated with long-term investment on capital items or investments in securities. The IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards) defines operation cash flow as cash generated from operations less taxation and interest plus investment income received less dividends. The calculation of cash generated involves determining cash collected from customers and subtracting cash paid to suppliers.

The push for OCF contribution, specifically, the measure of how much additional cash was generated or how much cash payment was avoided, as a measure of supply chain success by a few pundits (including David Schneider) is due to the fact that it is a more accurate measure of how much cash a company has generated (or used) than traditional measures of profitability such as net income or EBIT. (Wikipedia)

The rationale is that other measures are (much) more easily manipulated. For example, a company with numerous fixed assets (factories, equipment, etc.) would have decreased net income due to depreciation, but since depreciation is a non-cash expense, the net income amount is not a true measure of the cash position of the company. In addition, since a company can choose to recognize receivables before the cash is received, traditional balance sheets and resulting EBIT(DA) are also not accurate measurements of the true cash picture. And since companies need cash to run (as pesky people want to be paid), cash flow is often the true measure of company vitality.

OCF allows a company to get a much better grip on its working capital than other measures, and since Supply Chain revolves around working capital, the metric makes sense. So how do you impact it?

Stay Tuned for Part II.

It’s About Time You Get a Grip on Risk!

Risk management is about more than just the disclosures the auditors make your accountants put in the fine print when you release your financial statements and annual reports. And it’s more than the identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events or to maximize the realization of opportunities. For example, from a supply management point of view, risk management is modus operandi for supply assurity when there is an average of 250 supply chain disruptions for public companies every month. (Source) And from a profit point of view, it’s value. Less money dealing with the financial and brand fallout from a disruption is more money spent on innovation to meet customer demand.

And, as per this recent Ernst & Young post over on the Harvard Business Review blogs, it’s money in the bank. Their recent research fund that companies in the top 20% of risk (management) maturity generated three times the level of EBITDA as those in the bottom 20%. Wow!

So why is this? I think it’s due to the fact that less than 40% of companies are actively managing (supply) risk to the level they should be. In 2008, a Marsh survey found that only 35% of organizations self-reported that supply chain risk management was moderately effective at their companies. In other words, 65% of companies did not have a risk management program that was at least moderately effective. In 2011, researchers at Vlerick Leuven Gent Management School and Ghent University did a supply chain risk management study and found that 64% of the companies have no one responsible for managing supply chain risks! That’s essentially 0 improvement in the last three years! And while the initial introduction of a risk management program will require a significant investment of talent, it’s not that difficult, relatively speaking. As the post says, the critical factors are communication, openness, leadership, framework identification, formal methods, coordinated planning, standardized monitoring, and occasional (stress) testing of the different facets. With the right leadership and training, everyone will be able to do their part. And in the end, just like the Global 50 consumer products company highlighted, in the post, the organization will have

developed a governance structure that allows it think about risk proactively, and has aligned its risk profile and exposures more closely with its strategy. Its governance leadership group and supporting management clarified the company’s risk appetite, defined its risk universe, determined how to measure risk, and identified which technologies could best help the company manage its risks. Aligning risk to strategy, by identifying strategic risks and embedding risk management principles into business unit planning cycles, enabled the company to identify and document 80% of the risks that have an impact on performance. This alignment of risk awareness and management practices, from strategy to business operations, enabled the company to monitor risk developments more effectively. Managers could keep the organization within acceptable tolerance ranges, driving performance to plan.

So just do it. You’ll double your EBITDA in the process!

The (Board) Gamer’s Guide to Supply Management Part VI: Zombie Dice, Tsuro, and Get Bit!

I’m enraptured to continue this one-of-a-kind summer series that will help you whether you are just interested in finding out about this new and exciting career opportunity, or ready to take your Supply Management career to the next level. Not only is it significantly more fun than counting grains of sand for an hourglass, but when you can grasp a lot of the basic concepts by playing the right mix of strategic (and sometimes tactical) board games with your friends, it’s three blasts squared.

I know we still have to tackle the economic games, like Puerto Rico and Dominion, but we’re gong to continue to make use of the fact that, thanks to the unequaled generosity of Wil Wheaton (@wilw) and Geek & Sundry, we have yet another marvelous TableTop episode where Wil introduces us to yet another great game — or, in this case, three great games. Until the tap runs dry, we are going to collect every precious drop of water that Wil is directing our way.

Wil gives us a very succinct introduction to each of the three games covered in TableTop Episode 3, starting with

Zombie Dice

is a press-your-luck dice game. We are all zombies trying to fill our undead bellies with delicious, delicious brains. On every turn, we will draw three dice from the cup. Each die represents a human survivor or, as we call them, lunch. We roll the dice. We then keep all of the brains and all of the shots to the face. Now we have a choice to make. We can stop, and score the brains, or we can press our luck. There’s one special die. It’s this guy, he’s the runner. If we choose to roll again, we have to include him in the three dice total because we haven’t caught him yet. You keep rolling until you are shot in the face three times or you choose to stop and score all of the brains in front of you. The first player to score thirteen or more brains wins.

Zombie Dice is a great game because it helps you understand the Wall Street mentality which, inevitably, leads to financial market meltdowns when left unchecked — just like the subprime mortgage crisis, the dot-com bubble, the speculative currency crises in Asia, Mexico, and Europe in the 1990s, the savings and loans crisis, the oil crisis, the crash of 1929, the shanghai rubber stock market crisis, the rail road panic of 1893, the gurney crisis, the danish state bankruptcy, the south sea bubble and the mississippi bubble, and the tulip mania. While financial market meltdowns are not a new phenomenon, thanks to the internet and the interconnectedness of the global financial markets, they are occurring more and more and will continue to do so as long as the unlimited risk mentality of Wall Street goes unchecked.

It’s critical that you understand this mentality, and the risks associated with it, because the more you try to limit your risk by playing the currency markets, the hedge funds, or even asset-based investments (like gold), the more types of risk you are actually opening yourself up to. If you don’t know what you’re doing, you’ll end up rolling red die after red die, which triples your chance of getting shot in the face.

In addition, what makes Zombie Dice truly great is that it also teaches us about the unpredictability of risk. You never know when you are going to get shot in the face with a supply disruption due to a natural disaster, a civil disturbance, or a quickly enacted political trade barrier, or how much damage it’s going to do. Supply Management is full of risk, and every time you place an overseas order, you could be rolling the dice.

Tsuro

is a path finding, tile laying game. We are flying dragons. On every turn, we will play a tile on the board. Every dragon touching that tile has to follow the path it makes to completion. … If you fly off the board, you are eliminated. If you crash into another dragon, you are eliminated.

This is a cool game because it forces you to think strategically, which is important in markets where demand exceeds supply and you have to outmaneuver your competition to insure that you always get what you need, and keep your organization on the board. It teaches you that you not only need to think about what you need, but if you are in a market where demand exceeds supply, what your competition needs so that you can lock up supply first.

Get Bit

is a bluffing game, designed by my friend Dave Chalker. We are all robots out for a leisurely swim in shark-infested waters. Each turn, to figure out which one of us is swimming the fastest, we will play a card from our hand, numbered one through five. The fastest number goes to the front of the line, and the slowest number will go to the back of the line. The robot who is closer to the shark gets bit. We each have four limbs. So if you are bitten four times, you become Anchor Bot 9000 and spend the rest of your days on the bottom of the sea.

This is a good companion game to Tsuro because, like Tsuro, it forces you to think strategically, but has the added advantage that it demonstrates what happens if your competition mirrors your movements — you both stand still while the other competitors in the market swim past you. You not only have to outmaneuver your competition in this space, you have to prevent them from blocking you.

Worried About P2P Fraud? Here’s How to Prevent Even More of It!

In yesterday’s post we reviewed Accounts Payable News’ recent piece on “the top six ways to carry out P2P fraud” that every Supply Management professional should be aware of BEFORE implementing any P2P system. We did this because, as pointed out by Spend Matters UK “Procurement Related Fraud [is] On the Rise” (or at least more instances are being caught and prosecuted). The post chronicled four recent high-profile cases, of which two involved collusion between a buyer and a supplier (where the buyer purposely overpaid a supplier or helped them win a bid in exchange for cash kickbacks), one was a purely internal fraud conducted by a sole buyer (who set up dummy corporations that issued false invoices that were paid to a an account the buyer controlled), and one was an external fraud in which a criminal convinced accounts payable to change payment information for a genuine supplier to the criminals’ bank account.

In other words, we had a case of social engineering and supplier payment diversion by outsiders, a case of fictitious invoices for goods not actually delivered by an insider, a case of undermining of control by way of buyer-supplier collusion, and a case of tacit approval of unapproved “handling” costs to a supplier, who would pay a kick-back. All of the frauds Accounts Payable News warned us about have recently occurred in big organizations and ended up as high-profile cases before the courts. And at least three of these could have easily been prevented. Having a second party phone the supplier’s AR department to verify banking would have quickly revealed the social engineering fraud, verifying goods were received would have prevented payment of the fictitious invoices, and mandatory approvals for any costs above contract terms or market rates would have prevented the supplier overpayments. The undermining of control would be difficult to stop if it was a single party feeding a preferred supplier confidential information, but note that this is procurement-related fraud, and not pure P2P fraud.

In other words, as mentioned in yesterday’s post, if one solves two of three situations that are common among procurement frauds, fake data and lack of control to be precise, many frauds can be prevented. And while you can never solve the collusion issue, having to accept that the best you can do is discourage it, the reality is that you can minimize it. As pointed out by the Spend Matters UK,
Motive + Opportunity = Bad Things Happen,
and opportunity can certainly be minimized.

However, as implied by Spend Matters UK, what you really have to worry about is motive. The chance of fraud increases substantially when someone has a motive, and, as further pointed out by the post, motive increases greatly when there is:

  • Financial Need
    If someone is deeply in debt, has a gambling problem, or owes the mob money, that someone is going to be driven to get money anyway he can.
  • Psychologically Defective
    If someone has a pathological desire for thrills, and fraud is their fix, sooner or later, he’s going to try.
  • A sense of Entitlement
    This could take the form of greed, or of jealousy if the individual, who works hard, sees superiors getting big rewards for little effort while the individual gets little or no rewards for a lot of effort.

And while you can’t tell what a person is thinking, some people have easy tells that you can use to evaluate your chance of risk, and put additional controls in place if the chance of risk is high. For example, if a credit check shows the person is bordering on bankruptcy, that person could be more susceptible to opportunities for fraud, or at least to bribes. While it’s not necessarily the case, as some people would rather starve than steal a dollar, it should trigger extra precautions at least until you are sure the person is trustworthy.

In addition, basic psychological testing can often reveal a need to over-achieve or an undeserved sense of entitlement. These people could also pose financial risks to your firm and their financial control should be limited until their performance is adequately measured and your trust has been earned.

The simple fact is that people without a want or a need have no motive, and opportunity means very little to them. While it’s not as easy to weed out motive as it is to lock out a system, if millions are on the line, spend a few hundred on a background check, and if we’re talking an executive, a personality assessment wouldn’t hurt either.

The (Board) Gamer’s Guide to Supply Management Part V: Small World

I’m tickled technicolor to continue this one-of-a-kind summer series that will help you whether you are just interested in finding out about this new and exciting career opportunity, or ready to take your Supply Management career to the next level. Not only is it more fun than reading the latest study on the daily migration patterns of the three-toed sloth, but when you can grasp a lot of the basic concepts by playing the right mix of strategic (and sometimes tactical) board games with your friends, it’s three blasts and a half!

While we are still putting off the economic games (like Puerto Rico) that we are going to get to at some point, we’re going to make use of the fact that, thanks to unprecedented generosity of Wil Wheaton (@wilw) and Geek & Sundry, we have yet another fantastic TableTop episode where Wil Wheaton introduces us to the mechanics — and fun — of the game. Until we run out, we are going to take advantage of the priceless gifts that Mr. Wheaton has granted us with this spectacular educational series.

As with every other episode in the series, Wil Wheaton gives us a very succinct introduction to Small World in TableTop Episode 1, a classic victory-point game with near endless variations that give it exceptional replay value.


Small World combines the military strategy of risk with the delightful art and fantasy races of cosmic encounter. Whoever has the most points at the end of nine rounds wins the game. We earn points by conquering and ? territories. Empty territories cost two units to conquer. Every item in a territory costs one more unit to conquer. … At the beginning of every game, each player will choose a fantasy race, like Orcs, Elves, or Dwarves. Each race is combined with a unique special power like seafaring, flying, or heroic. These power and race combinations change every game, giving Small World tremendous replay value. No empire lasts forever, so don’t get too attached to your diplomatic skeletons. You will inevitably run out of units to conquer new territories. But don’t worry. When that happens, you simply put your active race into decline and choose a new one from the board and begin conquering all over again. It’s a very small world. And only one person can be the victor atop the bloody stinking heap of his vanquished opponents!

So what does this have to do to supply management? It introduces us to the intricacies of the markets that marketing and management expect us to indirectly support not only with products and services, but with market-entry advice (because, after all, we’re already sourcing from there so advising the organization on how to sell into there shouldn’t be that hard, right?). An alternate introduction to the game could be:

Small World combines the military strategy of risk with the marketing strategies of an MBA program. Whoever has the most money at the end of year wins. We earn money by conquering and maintaining market territories. Empty, blue ocean, territories cost two units to conquer. Every competitor or obstacle in a territory costs one more unit to conquer. At the beginning of every game, each player will choose a primary market strategy, like brute advertising force, niche marketing, or price-undercutting, and combine it with a perceived marketing advantage such as a big war chest, coveted partnership, or new manufacturing process that allows production costs to be drastically slashed. The primary market strategy and perceived marketing advantages change every game, giving Small World tremendous replay value. No market lead lasts forever, so don’t get too attached to your past successes. You will inevitably run out of units to conquer new market territories. But don’t worry. When that happens, you simply put your current market strategy into decline and choose a new one from the board and begin conquering all over again. It’s a very small world. And only one company can be the victor atop the looted corporate carcasses of its vanquished opponents.

And the great thing about Small World is that victory points are measured in victory coins, for which a player gets one victory coin for each region his race tokens occupy. Whereas some games, like 7 Wonders, give you half a dozen ways to score victory points, scoring victory coins in Small World is straight forward. It’s simply a function of how many regions you occupy, and how many extra bonus coins you get as a result of race or special ability. Plus, conquests can be first (it’s a blue ocean market and you are the first entrant, having only to conquer obstacles such as resistance to foreigners or geographic distance to your target market), takeovers (where you use overpowering force to take over a market from another player), or a hail-mary conquest where a player knows he does not have enough resources to take over any more regions with certainty, but chooses to make one last attempt, literally betting everything on luck (that boils down to the roll of a die). Finally, when all is said and done, a player may redeploy his resources among the various markets he controls in an effort to either maintain them in the next round or move into adjacent markets.

The game is brilliant, and should definitely be in your organization’s lunch room. Forget about those boring seminars and brown-bag lunches. If you really want to push your Supply Management brain cells into overdrive, this is the way to do it!


It’s a small world
But it’s the only one we’ve got
Huey Lewis