Category Archives: Strategy

The (Board) Gamer’s Guide to Supply Management Part XVII: The Village

Life is tough in Competitive Co. Global growth is slowing with the economy. Your products are no longer the most wanted in the marketplace. And at the end of every quarter, the employees who fall in the bottom 10% of their performance reviews get axed. Plus, you just found out that the CPO has been lured away to Big Money Co., one of the Directors is getting promoted, and it’s likely that the next Director will be promoted from within. You want that job, because it significantly decreases the chance that you will be cut when your next annual performance review comes up.

But how do you progress up the corporate ladder? Where do you focus your efforts? Even though you’re required to be a jack of all trades as a Category Manager, you can’t focus on everything, and if you’ll try, you’ll be a master of none and one of your category management rivals will be picked instead of you. Looking around, you see that people who get promoted to Senior Management positions tend to be those who either excel in timing the market and locking in contracts and/or spot buys at the perfect time, forging new markets, managing supplier relationships to optimize production, embedding themselves in standards organizations, or mastering the politics of the workplace to advance despite their lack of skills.

It’s not much different than trying to progress up the social ladder in the typical medieval village. If you were unhappy with the simple life of a farmer (like in Agricola) or a fisherman (like in Le Havre or Rouen Upon a Salty Ocean), then you either have to make your life as a merchant in the market and learn how to profit on every trade, travel to strange new lands to find new and valuable goods for trade, become a master craftsman and produce the ploughs and carriages needed by the farmers and traders, take the religious path and join the church and try to become a monk and work your way up the pecking order, or, if you were lucky to be living in one of the early commonwealths or states, where leaders were elected, become a politician and try to work your way up the ranks in the city council to eventually become elected (or appointed) as the representative of your city.

In other words, things haven’t changed much in 300 years. If you want to get ahead in the world, you either master trade, travel, craft, religion*, or politics. And that’s what you have to do in The Village.
In The Village, you win by controlling the family that achieves the most prestige by the end of the game. Prestige is gained by traveling to new cities, occupying the council chamber(s), progressing through the ranks in the church, succeeding in trade at the market, amassing wealth (in the form of gold coins), and getting your family members recorded in the village chronicle (for their deeds) on their demise. (Unlike the other worker-based games we have covered so far in this Board Gamer’s Guide to Supply Management, where you either have a constant number of workers, or a slowly increasing number of workers as the game progresses, in this game, you lose workers as the game progresses as actions have a time element, and you only get so much time per worker. This adds a new dimension of complexity as you have to be balance worker acquisition with worker loss, just like in the real world where workers retire, defect, or, occasionally, drop dead at their desks.)

As with most worker placement games, the game is round-based and each round consists of a number of actions. In each round, there are a fixed number of birthing, grain harvest, craft, market, travel, council, church, and well actions and players take turns until all the actions have been taken or the end-game has been triggered (in which case each player takes one more action). The birthing action adds one family member (worker) to your family; the grain harvest allows you to take 2 (3, or 4) bags of grain (if you have a plow and a orse or an ox); the craft action allows you to either produce or trade for a scroll, plow, or wagon, mill grain and sell it for gold, or work or trade for a horse or ox; the market action allows you to trade goods (and acquire prestige for your trading skills); the travel action allows you to visit a new city if you have a wagon and the resources to do so; the council action allows you to place a member in the council if you have a scroll or the influence (resources) to do so or, if you have a member in the council, advance him through the ranks if you have the scroll and/or influence (resources) to do so and gain rewards for doing so; the church allows you to enroll one of your family members in the clergy in the hopes that they will be selected for advancement at the end of the round (which will give you prestige if you have the most family members in the clergy); and the well action allows you to acquire a resource (needed for travelling, council advancement, goods, etc.).

The difficulty is in balancing your actions so that you always have the resources and time to advance. For instance, you can’t take too many time-based actions until you have expanded your family as you lose one family member after you have taken actions that require 10 time units in total, and, because this game takes place during the time of the plague, you cannot add more than 7 family members over the duration of the game. Many of the actions, such as travel, advancing through the council chamber, trading in the market, milling grain for gold, and working for scrolls, ploughs, wagons, horses, and oxen, require time. Depending on the action, it can require anywhere from one time unit (to enter the council chambers for the first time) to six time units to produce your first plough (as it takes 3 time units to learn the trade and 3 time units to build a plough). Just like in the real world, it takes time for your workers to learn their jobs and then time to produce results. That’s why you often buy or outsource, trading money and material (in The Village, resources) for goods and services you need instead of trying to acquire the talent and build the product yourself. Some competencies (like category management) you invest in and others (like production) you outsource. Sometimes you keep a superstar on your team, and advance them through the ranks (like you advance them through the council or the church in The Village) and sometimes you let them go (or, in The Village, let them expire to be recorded in the Chronicle for prestige).

It’s another great game for testing your Supply Management muster, with the unique twist that you not only have to balance resources with growth, but you also have to balance trade with workforce output, because, just like in real life, if you burn out your workforce, they expire. Do you have what it takes to be master of The Village. Why don’t you find out? Maybe you’ll even figure out where to focus your efforts to advance your own Supply Management Career!

* Some standards have as many zealots as recognized religions!

The Board Gamers Guide to Supply Management Part XIV: Le Havre

You’ve mastered Agricola and feel that you are an agricultural supply master and after sailing Upon a Salty Ocean, you feel you are also a master of logistics and market timing. But can you handle the full meal deal? Especially when you not only have to balance food and resource acquisition with trading and energy needs? Le Havre, an economic construction strategy game, adds a new dimension to put your supply management strategies to the test: having to balance the use of resources for food and the use of resources for energy to power ships, brickworks, iron mills, abattoirs, bakeries, and smokehouses which allow you to acquire and trade resources, convert raw materials into useable building materials, and turn raw fish and grain into food.

You win Le Havre by acquiring the most wealth over the course of the game, and you acquire wealth by collecting, selling, and using goods and by buying and constructing ships and buildings which have a monetary value. This sounds easy enough, but it is a significant supply management challenge as you have to continuously make enough money to cover the entry costs to the buildings you need (but don’t own), acquire enough raw materials that can be used to produce energy to power the buildings that produce food and building materials, and produce enough food to feed your constantly growing workforce at the end of every round (just like your payroll for an increasingly growing workforces increases in real life), which requires more and more food as the game goes on (just as your corporate workforce also grows as your company grows and you acquire more property and trade more resources).

Although you want to focus on acquiring buildings and building ships, as this is generally what helps you accumulate the most wealth (especially if you leave out the special buildings), you’re constantly having to interrupt your strategy to acquire food to feed your workers, raw materials for future buildings, and energy sources. The last thing you want to do is run out of food, because then you have to buy food, and if you don’t have enough money you either have to fire sale a building (if you have one) at half of its value or borrow, and every loan accrues interest every round (and there’s no limit on debt or interest, just like there’s no limit in the real world).

The game consists of a fixed number of rounds (defined as 14 rounds for 2 players, 18 rounds for 3 players, and 20 rounds for 4 or 5 players), each of which consists of 7 turns. On each turn, you take one of two actions:

  1. take an offer from the harbour or
    on each player’s turn, new goods arrive in the harbour and are added to the appropriate offer space, which the player can take
  2. use one of the available buildings
    which can include the construction firm that allows you to build up to buildings of your own

The base goods that are available as offers for the player to take are:

  • fish
    a food source worth 1 food or 2 food if smoked in the smokehouse
  • wood
    used to construct buildings, ships, or supply 1 energy (via fire); it can supply 3 energy if converted to charcoal in the charcoal kiln
  • clay
    used to construct buildings, it can be upgraded to brick in the brickworks to build more buildings
  • iron
    used to construct buildings or iron ships, it can be upgraded to steel
  • grain
    a harvest good that can be baked into bread (worth two food) at the bakehouse, or used to grow 1 more grain (at the end of the round)
  • cattle
    a harvest good that can be upgraded to meat (worth three food) at the abattoir and hides (for every 2 cattle slaughtered); also, 2+ cattle produce one more cattle at the end of every round

All other goods have to be produced. These include:

  • charcoal: an energy source worth 3 energy produced from wood in the charcoal kiln
  • coke: an energy source worth 10 energy produced from charcoal in the colliery
  • brick: produced from clay in the brickworks
  • steel: produced from iron in the steel mill
  • bread: produced from grain in the bakehouse
  • smoked fish: produced from fish in the smokehouse
  • meat: produced from cattle in the abattoir
  • leather: produced from hides in the tannery

There are 33 standard buildings (and 36 special buildings, which you should ignore until you’ve built up some experience with the base games). In addition to the 9 resource conversion buildings already mentioned, specifically:

  • Abattoir
  • Bakehouse
  • Brickworks
  • Charcoal Kiln
  • Cokery
  • IronWorks
  • Smokehouse
  • Steel Mill
  • Tannery

The following 8 buildings are also available, and necessary:

  • Building Firms: necessary to build buildings
  • Clay Mound: a source of clay
  • Colliery a source of coal
  • Construction Firms: necessary to build buildings
  • Fishery: a source of fish, which is a vital food source
  • Shipping Line: necessary to trade
  • Wharf: necessary to build ships

In order to use a building, you have to pay the entry fee (if you don’t own it), have the energy sources to power it, and one or more of the base goods required to use its ability. In order to build a building, you have to have the resource cost, just like in Agricola. Not to mention, it has to be available. This is the challenge of Le Havre, not only do you have to balance food production (to feed your workers) with resource acquisition (to build), energy production (to power buildings) and ship production (to acquire fish and trade), but you also have to build at the right time, use the buildings at the right time, and trade appropriately. Especially since, just like in the real world, only one player can use one building at a time, take an offer from the harbour and the resource type associated with it, or get points for a particular building or action. And the increasing food costs make the game quite challenging if you don’t adequately prepare for food production from round one. In a four player game, you will need to produce 113 units of food and in a two player game, you will need to produce 177 units of food! A growing workforce needs to be fed (paid)! And you just can’t borrow willy nilly, as the bank only lends money to cover the cost of food (as in Agricola, you can only beg for food).

If you really want to test your supply management mettle, Le Havre is a good game to test it on. While it will likely take twice as long as Agricola to get through a session, it puts your thinking skills and ability to balance supply (offered resources) with demand (building [utilization] costs) in a way that maximizes overall value generated (as the winner is the one that acquires the most wealth by the end of the game). So give Le Havre a go. You might just get more than you negotiated for. (And get one step closer to the ultimate supply management challenge.)

P.S. If you want a good guided introduction to the game, try the iOS version and see if you can become Le Havre’s next titan of industry. The tutorial is good as is the gameplay. (But it won’t give you the challenge of going head to head with your team-mate — all AI’s have preferred strategies and predictable responses when you play them enough.)

The (Board) Gamer’s Guide to Supply Management Part VII: Upon a Salty Ocean

SI is almost radiating rainbows now that it’s resurrected it’s one-of-a-kind blog series that will help you take your Supply Management career to the next level by giving you new and interesting ways to hone your supply management skills. Still more fun than reading about the latest study on the daily migration patterns of the three-toed sloth, but now that you can hone your skills while challenging your peers, it’s three blasts and a half.


It’s 1515, and you are a merchant of Rouen. You invest in ships and city buildings in an effort to not only get rich, but be the richest when Francis I comes to visit the city in an effort to win his favour. The city’s wealth is dependent on fishing and the trading of salted fish, herring and cod in particular. Every week, ships full of salt barrels leave Rouen for the fishing grounds of the Atlantic Ocean and, upon their return, sell their fish in the market.

Upon a Salty Ocean is a turn-based work-placement game that consists of 5 turns, where each turn consists of 3 phases: an event phase, an action phase, and a turn end phase. The event phase determines weather and market conditions which affect fishing and the cost of fish and salt. In the action phase, a player chooses to either take a city action (in which she can buy salt or buildings), a navigation action (in which she can take her ships to the open sea and fish or return to Rouen), a harbour action (in which she can move goods to or from her storage depot or build a ship), and a market action (in which she can buy to or sell from the market).

Sounds simple enough, right?

It would be except for the fact that:

  • the event that happens at the start of the phase can bring stormy seas, which will decrease the amount of fish that can be caught; pirates, which will damage the ships and decrease the amount of fish that can be held; market dips, which will lower the selling price of fish and/or salt; and/or market surges, which will increase the selling price of fish and/or salt
  • actions in the action phase are consecutive, each player can only take one action at a time, and every time an action is taken, it gets more costly for the next player — and all purchases and sales affect the market price
  • you begin the game with a small amount of money, have a limited credit line, and interest charges rack up quickly if you go into debt
  • if you prosper, you must invest in a bank to safeguard your money, or you will lose some of it at the end of the turn
  • each building investment provides different advantages
  • a strategy only works if there is limited competition in that strategy, or
    you luck into the right timing

Just like in the real world,

  • shipping is subject to stormy seas, pirates, and other calamities
  • no one can take two actions at the same time in the real world, w.r.t. the markets in particular, and every action taken increases or decreases the cost for everyone else
  • your resources are always limited, debt is costly, and too little cash flow can bankrupt you (and prevent you from taking any more actions for at least one turn)
  • the more you have, the bigger the target you become for thieves and the more you have to invest in security
  • different capabilities in Supply Management give you different advantages, some tactical, some strategic, some innovative, etc.
  • not everyone can corner a commodities market, a CPG segment, etc.

It’s a real supply management market conundrum. Do you try to conquer the seas and get the most fish? Conquer the market, buy low, sell high, and make your riches off of trade? Or do you acquire the most buildings and make money off ship building, banking, and building the church? Played properly, all strategies can win, including the fishing-free market strategy. Played wrong, and bankrupt you will go. Just like the real world.

While You’re Celebrating Your Thanksgiving in the U.S.

Think about what you can do to make the rest of the world, including the 870 Million people in the world who are chronically under-nourished, thankful as well.

As Procurement Pros, you have a lot of control over the global food supply whether you realize it or not. Money does talk, and with enough pressure, the supply chain will walk to your marching orders. And if those orders are appropriate, maybe we can prevent half of the food being produced going to waste.

According to The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, roughly 1/3rd of the food produced in the world for human consumption every year, approximately 1.3 Billion Tons, gets lost or wasted — due to losses during harvesting, storage, transport, and processing. This loss is almost four times what would be needed to feed all of the chronically under-nourished people in the world, and part of the reason food reserves are at an all time low.

And to make matters worse, the growth, and partial harvesting, storage, transport and / or processing produces 3.3 Billion tons of CO2 emissions and wastes precious water and energy resources. So, not only are people starving when there should be enough food, but we’re wasting limited fresh water and energy in the production of the food that is being wasted.

In developing countries, 40% of this loss is occurring at post-harvest and processing levels due to financial, managerial, and technical constraints in harvesting techniques as well as storage and cooling facilities. Additional infrastructure investments would solve the financial and technical issues, and getting smart people on the ground would solve the managerial issues. If a large grocery chain decided to invest on the ground, and reduce loss from an average of 35% to 10%, it would effectively increase production by almost 40% and lower the cost per unit by almost 30%. (Production levels go from 65% to 90%. 40% of 90% is 36%. 30% of 90% is 27%.) This is not a hard problem to solve. And it wouldn’t take too long before the grocery chain saw ROI.

In developed countries, more than than 40% of losses happen at retail and consumer levels. Faster transport, better storage, and better inventory planning could have a big impact at the retail level. The only thing a Procurement Pro can’t really control is consumer waste.

So think about what changes you can make in your organization to minimize food waste and encourage investments on the ground in the regions, and on the farms, you depend on. And when costs go down, your organization will have something to be thankful for too!

What Do Bid Optimization and Corporate Strategy Have in Common?

Last month, Pierre penned a very interesting piece over on Spend Matters when he asked “What Do Bid Optimization and Corporate Strategy Have in Common” and answered Everything. SI doesn’t entirely agree, but definitely agrees that bid optimization and corporate strategy have a significant amount in common.

Pierre is 100% correct when he says that people who say sourcing optimization is too complex and a nice area barely used and needed by most sourcing folks are dead wrong. As Pierre says, ignorant statements like this throw out the philosophy, methodology and techniques that are behind the tool. Optimization is more than a mathematical model embodied in a piece of software — it is an encompassing process designed to make sure you achieve the most value from your efforts. It starts during the problem definition phase where you define your objectives and then figure out the appropriate model, data elements, options, methodology and measurements of success — not after you’ve collected a bunch of semi-random data.

Furthermore the methodology employed is critical and relates to corporate strategy. Pierre says the overarching methodology is corporate strategy, but SI believes that the relationship is a little more subtle — corporate strategy limits the methodologies that can be used. The objective of corporate strategy, which is a fact-based process of developing strategic scenarios and then determining how to best allocate finite resources to support various business objectives and a balanced scorecard, is to define strategies that should be “optimal” in the sense that they minimize trade-offs and are doable by the various stakeholders. The chosen strategy limits the methodologies that can be employed because only so many methodologies will support the strategy, and only a subset of those will be capable of delivering an optimal result. For example, if the corporate strategy is to dominate a foreign market, then the methodology employed must support getting more knowledge and demand for the brand, getting the product on more shelves in the market, and making it affordable for the consumers in that market. The methodologies would have to support developing advertising congruent with the market, logistics efforts that work on the ground, and cost control to insure the product could be priced to maximize sales. If the corporate strategy is to reduce costs to improve the bottom line, the methodologies would have to support better sourcing, more efficient production/distribution, and better supplier relations. With respect to better sourcing, we’re limited to strategic efforts — tactical or catalog buys are out. And with respect to cost minimization, depending on the product being sourced, where it is being sourced from, and the market dynamics, this may dictate an open auction, a multi-round negotiation, or decision optimization based upon final best bids, logistics costs, incurred and usage costs, and/or other value drivers. Optimization doesn’t always mean the most complex model you can imagine, but it does mean insuring everything you do is optimal and that every sourcing event is driven off of a lowest-cost baseline, which is easily calculated by a decision optimization solution built on a proper model. (This is because you only spend more if you get value back — whether it is better quality, marketing power through the supplier’s brand, or joint development efforts — that is at least equal to what you spend.)

And when you apply the proper methodology and process to a category, as Pierre explains, it will improve how Procurement will tap supply market power to help the stakeholders meet their objectives. After all, resources are limited, stakeholder requirements are diverse, and trade-offs and constraints are plentiful — which is the precise problem strategic sourcing decision optimization was designed to solve. And when scenarios are developed with stakeholders during the planning processed and then used to improve the robustness of the category strategy, how can you not win?

In short, corporate strategy has a lot to do with bid optimization, as it drives the sourcing strategy and model objectives, and you really can’t succeed in one without the other. They have a lot in common. Not everything, as some aspects of strategy have nothing to do with bid optimization (such as advertising tactics employed or market positioning, although other types of modelling will be used to determine the expected effects of each potential strategy), and some aspects of optimization and based purely in math and logic (which not all strategies are).

And using the two hand-in-hand makes perfect sense. So, just like Pierre, I have to ask why is it when we take this approach to a specific market basket and sourcing project, it somehow becomes an obtuse technology thing rather than just doing good strategy work? It just doesn’t make sense. Without both, you are playing a game of win, lose, or draw with a greater chance of losing or drawing then winning.

Remember, the power of “collaborative sourcing” or “market informed sourcing” is not the tool, but rather the philosophy of cross-functional teams doing scenario planning, defining what they really want as an objective, reducing or eliminating unneeded constraints, and fully tapping supply market power. The optimization tool is just an enabler, albeit a critical one.

Go, Pierre, Go.