The Logistics Shortage Keeps Getting Worse

At least if reports are to be believed. According to a recent Fortune article on “supply chain jobs”, the shortage is up to 1.4 Million jobs by 2018. Wow! Especially when estimates last year put the driver shortage at a mere 240K. While logistics needs talent in high tech, analytics, robotics, engineering, seasoned managers, marketers, data analysts, and maybe even human resources, it primarily needs drivers — no drivers, no shipments. No shipments, no logistics industry.

And when you think about it, big data scientists go where the money is; high tech workers go where the tech is; robotics engineers go where the robots are; marketers are attracted by cool message and money to burn; most industries are shedding managers, who need work; and HR is HR. I don’t think forwarding thinking logistics companies are going to have any trouble attracting high tech, engineering, marketers, managers, or even HR talent. They’re going to have problems attracting drivers and warehouse workers — the same type of people they’ve been having problems attracting for a decade, because, in North America, transportation ain’t sexy, doesn’t pay well, takes a toll on your health, and still puts you in risky situations. As explained in SI’s last post on the subject, until these issues are addressed, the problem will remain.

Spend Analysis – How Do You Get It Right?

As an expert in optimization and analytics, I’m regularly asked, with respect to spend analysis, where do I start, which solution is best, how do I get fast savings, etc. All good questions, and as per the dozens of posts on this subject over the years, they all have multiple answers, highly conditional on the skill of the analyst, the solutions available, the data available for the solutions to act on, the categories that can be impacted in the short term (as some contracts are effectively unbreakable and some vendor contracts all but prevent cost recovery), etc.

More sophisticated analysts ask what built-in reports are necessary and the most useful, how much real-time slicing and dicing capability they really need, how much can be automated, etc. Also good questions, but questions which, depending on the particulars of the situation, also have multiple answers which are dependent on what the organization is buying, who the organization is buying from, where the products and services are coming from and going to, how much data is available with respect to the product and service cost components and composition, how powerful the data amalgamation and computation engines are, how variable their spend patterns are, etc.

Which leads many people to believe that it’s almost impossible to get it right, when the reality is that, with the right type of tool and the right mind set, it’s easy to find success, but very hard to predict where and when you will find success. It’s like being a skilled professional during a market boom where the demand for individuals with your skills outstrips supply. While you don’t know who will offer you a job, if you have good references, work hard, and apply yourself to finding a job, offers will come. Spend analysis often works the same way – if you have the right tools, work hard, and apply yourself to finding opportunities, they will present themselves. It’s just a matter of digging until they materialize.

As I’ve said time and time again, you’re not likely to find your best opportunities in the canned top-N reports which for many years were the staple of spend analysis solution vendors. Because, as I’ve pointed out for years, if you go to manufacturing and ask a handful of buyers who the top 10 suppliers are, you’re going to get a set of overlapping lists which will easily allow you to identify the top 7 or 8 suppliers. The same for categories and commodities. And the AP system tells you who the top departmental and individual spenders are. You may not know the exact spends or exact volumes, but you can quickly get a pretty good idea and focus your negotiation efforts on those categories while you work towards improving your data. The net result is that these reports will only identify a few opportunities that you missed, which you will quickly identify, attack, and capture within 6 to 18 months. That’s why the year-over-year return of most spend analysis efforts falls flat within two years. The biggest opportunities are not in what you know, they’re in what you don’t know. They’re somewhere in the next 20 or 30 suppliers or the next 20 or 30 commodities that can be consolidated into moderately high spend categories that when effectively rationalized and sourced can deliver 10%, 20%, and even 30% savings as well as process efficiencies that deliver further organizational savings still.

A consolidation that will only happen if you can define category groups and supplier families and analyze collective spend and compare it to market rates and identify patterns of overspending not detectable using only top n spend reports or traditional organizational categorizations and supplier codes (where the same supplier has four different entries in the vendor master because, as a non-top n supplier, no one bothered to make sure all spend associated with that supplier was with a single vendor entry in the ERP). And you can only do this if you can slice, dice, and rearrange the data on the fly in non-traditional ways only you, as a creative intelligent being, can do. A rule-based system can only check for previously identified transgressions. It can’t check for unknown transgressions or future transgressions by organizational buyers.

So if you want a short answer to the question of how do you get spend analysis right, you make sure you buy a tool that gives you a lot of different flexibility in the amalgamation, organization, and analysis of the data available to you. It should let you build, in technical terms, “multiple cubes”, allow you to create multiple roll-ups and reports on these cubes, using multiple analysis techniques. It should let you build a cube, appropriate roll-ups, and reports that answer any question you care to ask. If you see a spending pattern or trend that is not in line with what is expected, you need to be able to dive into the data and find out why. That’s how you save money. Flexibility, a toolkit of techniques, and the creativity to apply them in different ways until you stumble on the big savings or value generation opportunity that everyone else has missed.

What are the Retail Keys to Success?

Retail is hard. Really hard. Razor thin margins. Demanding customers. Unpredictable trends. Unreliable carriers. Financially unstable suppliers. The list goes on. But there are steps a retailer can take to make sure their odds are better than their competitors. Specifically, they can take steps to strengthen their supply chain — and a recent article over on Supply Chain Digital on untangling the retail supply chain with real-time analytics outlines four steps a retailer can take to strengthen their supply chain.

1. Obtain an end-to-end transparent view of the supply chain across both traditional and online business units.

You can’t run brick-and-mortar and online stores as separate business units. They are one brand and your customer expects one experience. If it’s in the warehouse, it needs to be available to customers who frequent your store as well as to customers who visit your online storefront. Moreover, pricing needs to be comparable. If you charge significantly less online than in the store for the same product, then why should your customer come to your store? Especially if you’re offering free shipping to build your online presence?

2. Implement the capability to identify bottlenecks and problems in real-time and the agility to take corrective action before the customer experience is impacted.

Your end-to-end view needs to go beyond simply identifying inventory levels across the organization, but expected delivery dates, ship dates, and late shipments / deliveries that will increase stock-outs and impact your ability to serve your customers.

3. Integrate once diverse and siloed sources of data across the business units to offer coordinated and quality service levels for the omni-channel shopper.

You need to not only offer superior service, but service your online customers in your stores and your store customers online, because, online or offline, you’re one organization, one brand, and you need to offer one consistent quality of service to maintain that brand.

4. Leverage historical data to set baselines and then analyze data against those baselines on a regular basis to make more reliable and timely predictions and better manage the business.

Past purchase patterns are just that — past purchase patterns. As tastes and trends change, so do purchase patterns — and the sooner new patterns are detected, the sooner inventory levels can be modified to prevent stock-outs of popular items and expensive over-stocks of items in disfavour.

It’s not a complete list of actions retailers can take, but it is a good starting list.

10 Mistakes You Make When You Try To Build a Private Cloud

VentureBeat recently ran a great article on 5 Mistakes You’re Making When You Try to Build a Private Cloud that did a great job of covering 5 mistakes you make, but why stop there? SI can easily come up with 10 mistakes, more if it gives the issue a second thought. So, since some of you still don’t believe that The Cloud is Filled with Hail, let’s review the VentureBeat 5 and throw 5 more into the mix to see if that’s enough to convince you that The Cloud is Not a Magic Mirror — especially when you take a do-it-yourself approach!

VentureBeat’s 5 Mistakes of a Private Cloud are:

1. You believe the cloud will solve all your problems.

With so many vendors touting it, you believe that a cloud must be the answer, so why not control your own? There are a host of reasons, including those that will be discussed in response to the other wrong assumptions, but the most important thing to remember is that not all applications are good candidates for the cloud. Applications that are intermittent, that run full tilt, or that spike unexpectedly are not always good cloud candidates — public or private.

2. You think everyone will automatically love the idea.

You keep hearing that clouds bring agility, adaptability, and actionable data — so you think that you can convince everyone else to fall in love with the cloud too because you believe that these are reasons to fall in love with the cloud. A cloud is as adaptable as the software that drives it, as actionable as the data you can get into it, and as agile as your organization — if it takes 3 months to get a product to market using the best processes you can come up with, it takes 3 months to get that product to market — cloud or no cloud.

3. You think it’s cool.

Clouds aren’t cool (although the rain they bring may cool you off). And unless you are in the business of selling “cool” technology (i.e. private clouds to suckers who buy private clouds), the last thing you should be basing a business decision on is the “cool” factor. You buy technology to solve your problems, not because it’s cool.

4. You think you will succeed in boiling the ocean.

A private cloud is a huge IT project similar to trying to replace 3 ERPs across your global organization that have been entrenched for 10 years across 3 continents in one fell swoop while trying to add 4 modules you never had before. It’s like trying to boil the ocean with a single giant magnifying glass — brave, maybe even visionary, but ultimately stupid.

5. You think your plan will fit the organization.

The typical private cloud relies on converged infrastructure (CI) stacks which break down the typical organization walls of application teams, server teams, network teams, and storage teams. How many Global 3000 organizations have one single version of the truth across the enterprise? Maybe the few dozen organizations that successfully achieved enterprise wide deployments of SAP and Oracle?

That’s just the beginning. Here are 5 more mistakes courtesy of SI:

6. You think a private cloud will be cheaper than a public cloud.

You might think that a cloud is a fluffy magic box that can be obtained with a handful of magic beans that you can get by trading a simple cow, but that’s about as far from reality as you can get. Clouds require hardware, software, dedicated network connectivity, and power. Lots of power. You will need backup generators in addition to a wall of UPS units (to keep the machines humming until the generators kick in), multiple fibre connections, racks of machines and storage area networks, and a lot of specialized software. And, instead of sharing the cost, you get to pay for it all — as well as the staff to build it and maintain it 100% — 24/7/365.

7. You think all modern technology was built for the cloud.

A lot of software is, but not all — and chances are that a lot of the software you are using, even if still under maintenance, was not built for the cloud. So, you’ll have to update your current software and migrate your current data stores while you are at it.

8. You think it is the best way to interact with your trading partners and the private clouds you wrongly assume they have.

The cloud is connective, but only if it is shared. Otherwise, it’s just one massive local area network that needs to talk with other massive local area networks used by your trading partners. Clouds don’t create connectivity – data interchange standards do, and you don’t need clouds for that!

9. You think you can secure it better than the experts.

Hi Ho, Hi Ho.
It’s off to work we go!
We block the ports and tune the firewall
In our ‘Net the whole day through
We block the ports and tune the firewall
It’s what we like to do
It ain’t no trick
To lock down quick
If ya block the port
With a sniffer on a ‘NIC
In the ‘Net …

And you can block every port, patch every firewall, and sniff every ‘NIC, but the reality is, your network is only as secure as the weakest link — which is probably the software you’re using and the ports you need to have open. Which you don’t know how to protect because your IT staff is struggling to patch your firewall, scan the ports, and upgrade SSL before the heartbleed bug bleeds you dry of your corporate secrets. When it comes to security, you need true security experts — and you’re not going to have them in house.

10. You think the cloud can actually be secured.

The only way to truly secure a network is to unplug it. So if you think you have a hope in Hades of securing your private cloud …

All The World’s A Stage … and 115 Years Ago Today, the First Hague Conference Tried to Set the Rules of Performance.

One hundred and fifteen years ago today, the First International Peace Conference was held at The Hague in the Netherlands. The goal of the peace conference was to negotiate disarmament, the laws of war, and war crimes and, if possible, to create a binding international court for compulsory arbitration to settle international disputes — an establishment considered necessary to replace the institution of war. While most of the countries present favoured the process for binding international arbitration — including the United States, Britain, Russia, and China, a few countries — including Germany — vetoed it.

However, in addition to the creation of three primary treaties, ratified by all major powers, namely:

  • Convention for the Pacific Settlement of International Disputes
  • Convention with respect to the Laws and Customs of War on Land
  • Convention for the Adaptation to Maritime Warfare of the Principles of the Geneva Convention

and three declarations, ratified by all major powers except the United States (and Great Britain with respect to the first declaration):

  • Declaration concerning the Prohibition of the Discharge of Projectiles and Explosive from Balloons or by Other New Analogous Methods
  • Declaration concerning the Prohibition of the Use of Projectiles with the Sole Object to Spread Asphyxiating Poisonous Gases
  • Declaration concerning the Prohibition of the Use of Bullets which can Easily Expand or Change their Form inside the Human Body

it did manage to establish a voluntary forum for arbitration, the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA), which is typically overshadowed by the International Court of Justice that replaced its sister court, the Permanent Court of International Justice that was formed in 1922.

The PCA is important, even though you’ve probably never heard of it, because it is the court that administers cases that arise out of international treaties (including bilateral and multilateral investment treaties) that span a wide range of legal issues, including maritime boundaries, international investment, and matters concerning international and regional trade. While your company will likely never end up in the courtroom, your government likely will, and the decisions might change what your country is, and thus what you are, allowed to do — and might be the entire reason laws change overnight (which will happen if a maritime boundary is rezoned and you are fishery, for example).

Of course, if you are a big multinational, the PCA might be the registry for your government arbitration that is being conducted under UNCITRAL arbitration rules.

(For example, the PCA recently held a hearing between Bilcon of Delaware et al v. Government of Canada on an arbitration claim about the need for Canada and its subnational governments to fairly administer and follow their environmental and investment laws and regulations to ensure a high standard of environmental protection that arose out of unfair, arbitrary, and discriminatory application of certain government measures relating to the permitting of a basalt quarry and marine terminal at Whites Points in Digby County, Nova Scotia because the type of environmental assessment that the Investors were required to carry out were more burdensome, unfair, and arbitrary than the types of environmental assessments other Canadian investors with similar projects have had to undergo.)

While it was not the preferred outcome of the Peace Conference, the court does give nation states a viable alternative to war and corporations and investors a way to hold nation states accountable to the global agreements they signed up for. And it is a fairly busy court. Right now, the PCA is the registry in eight inter-state arbitrations, fifty-two investor-state arbitrations, and thirty-three arbitrations under contracts or other agreements to which one party is a state, state-controlled entity, or intergovernmental organization. If you’re working for a big multi-national, the PCA is an entity you should be aware of.