Category Archives: Decision Optimization

Just What Can Strategic Sourcing Decision Optimization Do?

That You Can Not Do Without It?

the doctor has explained this many times, but it seems that some people still have difficulty understanding exactly why they need this technology. However, a recent article over on CNN on Hello Games and their upcoming ambitious sci-fi adventure game No Man’s Sky might help him explain the necessity of decision optimization to you.

In the recent article 18 quintillion planets: The video game that imagines an entire galaxy, CNN explains how the next generation of open-world gaming is expanding to take on the entire universe and offer players an online game with 18,446,744,073,709,551,616 algorithm-generated planets. That’s a number so large that a person would have to live 584 Billion years to visit each planet for a single second. That’s also the number of possibilities that an analyst might have to consider if she wanted to consider every possible selection of suppliers, products, carriers, lanes, pricing tiers, and allocations to optimize the entire spend of a global Fortune 500 multi-national corporation.

A large multi-national organization might

  • deal with 10,000 global suppliers
  • operating in 100,000 global locations
  • shipping to 20,000 retail outlets and warehouses
  • with 50,000 different global carriers at their disposal
  • to transport the 50,000 unique SKUS required to meet their needs
  • that can ship over an average of 10 lanes between point to point
  • at 2 different LTL rates and a FTL rate
  • and 4 different volume tiers

and this generates 600 quintillion different ship-from, SKU, carrier, lane, price break, ship-to combinations.

And, with appropriate category definition and model partitioning, Decision Optimization can handle this complexity.

Get it now?

Benchmarks Will Re-Define (Re-)Sourcing .. but that is Just the Beginning!

Today, benchmarks are used to determine how well an organization has performed to date. While constant measurement is important, it doesn’t really add value. Tomorrow, benchmarks will be used in conjunction with optimization to not only measure progress, but to help the analyst determine the most appropriate method for re-sourcing an existing category that will be the most likely method for delivering additional savings going forward.

Tomorrow, before a category is re-sourced, an optimization will be re-run on market-adjusted historical data to compute a market baseline, which is the proper definition of a benchmark, that will be used to determine a if there is a potential savings opportunity using strategic sourcing decision optimization. If there isn’t, then a better approach will be defined for the category.

More specifically, the current market pricing for the commodities, as defined by the benchmark, will be compared to current organizational pricing and the differential will be used to adjust all of the historical prices for a baseline optimization. In addition, the distribution model will be updated as appropriate (with new lanes, new carriers, and new temporary storage options added) and current rate tables will be included. If this baseline optimization indicates a reasonable savings opportunity, then the category will be re-sourced using a multi-round negotiation process backed by strategic sourcing decision optimization.

If, on the other hand, this baseline indicates that costs are likely to rise, then the organization knows that it should change the sourcing approach and instead try for a contract extension at current, or only slightly increased, rates.

More details can be found in SI’s recent white-paper, sponsored by Trade Extensions, on Optimization, What Comes Next, but this is just the beginning. Automated Optimization, Stratified Optimization, and TVM Optimization will find opportunities that your organization never knew existed (and never will without these techniques).

To find out how optimization, when taken to the next level, will completely redefine your strategic sourcing and category management, download SI’s latest white-paper on Optimization, What Comes Next.

Optimization, Are You Ready for What Comes Next?

Probably Not. And if you haven’t yet downloaded Sourcing Innovation’s latest Illumination on Optimization, What Comes Next, then you’re definitely not.

As indicated in Sourcing Innovation’s recent post, So You Think You’ve Mastered Strategic Sourcing Decision Optimization, you haven’t even mastered the extent of strategic sourcing decision optimization available to you today. If you’re in the Hackett Group 8%, applying (at least baseline) optimization to the majority of your high-dollar and/or strategic categories, and are even building Billion Dollar sourcing models, then you might have mastered the basics of optimization 2.0. Barely. But optimization 3.0 is on the way.

And because you’re still struggling with the basics of model building, data collection, constraint definition, scenario comparison, and, most importantly, when you should use optimization (always, but not necessarily to make the award decision), you haven’t even had to time to realize that there might be more coming. And there is. Lots more. Just like there was a substantial increase in capability that hit the market starting between 2005 and 2007, about 5 to 7 years after most of the optimization vendors hit the scene circa 2000, we are reaching the point where the next set of rapid advancements in capability are about to hit the market, and those companies that latch on to these advancements first will be in a prime position to quickly advance down the path of supply mastery. They will be years ahead of the average company and decades ahead of the laggards. Decades.

These organizations will not only be the first to take optimization to the next level — and go from T-CAP (Cost of Acquisition and Production/Utilization/Distribution) to true TCO (Total Coat of Ooptimization) on their journey to TVM (Total Value Management) — but the first to merge big data, analysis, and optimization in new and innovative ways that will identify previously undetectable cost avoidance and value generation activities.

So, if you want to be one of this decade’s Supply Management leaders, download Sourcing Innovation’s new white-paper on Optimization, What Comes Next (registration required), sponsored by Trade Extensions, and start preparing for the future of optimization today. It will be worth your while and when you start applying these techniques, you won’t be disappointed.

Procurement Trend #08. Lifecycle TCO

Five anti-trends remain. We can count them on one-hand, but like LOLCat, we feel more compelled to provide stupid examples of how back-water the futurists really are when they provide us examples of trends that anyone who bothered to poke their head over their cubicle wall ten years ago would have noticed. However, we’ll leave their humiliation for LOLCat, who has obviously received very little enjoyment from this series, but still found time to point out how LOLCats have been sustainable at least since the first corrugated cardboard box was created and instead focus on blasting the myths the futurists continue to propagate.

So why do these Rip van Winkles keep pushing upon us trends from yesteryear? Besides the fact that some of them obviously spent the best part of the last few decades napping, probably because they look around, see the laggard organizations still caught in the muck, and assume they can still sell last decade’s snake oil in today’s marketplace. Why do they think Lifecycle TCO is today’s cure?

  • the supply management lifecycle in a typical company has been expanding
    for decades

    and cost models rarely keep up

  • once the margin has been taken out of the unit cost and the landed cost,
    the definition of cost has to expand to realize savings

    but most companies that claim to be looking at TCO are still looking at T-CAP

  • the most out-of-control costs are typically where you’re not looking

    and that’s the way, uh-huh, uh-huh, they* like it

So what does this mean to you?

Cost Models Have to Expand

Right now, most companies that claim to be focussed on Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) are really only focussed on Total Cost of Acquisition and Production (T-CAP). They are merely focussed on landed cost and costs associated with production (waste, etc.) and distribution and aren’t looking up the supply chain to energy, labour, and raw material costs and forward to maintenance, service, warranty and return costs or even further forward to reclamation, recycling, and disposal (related) costs. Every cost has an impact and any sudden increase or decrease can completely change the model.

Out of Control Costs Have to be Found

Wherever they are. Typically, a company heavily focussed on optimization will be focussed on T-CAP but not look at the expected warranty and return costs associated with switching to a lower-cost supplier or not break down the supplier’s quote to realize that the energy costs are much higher than expected and likely to rise rapidly in the region two potential suppliers are currently located in.

Cost Control Measures Have to Be Implemented

Once the cost models are expanded, the out of control costs are identified, cost control measures are defined, implemented, and performance against them is tracked. If the out of control costs are energy costs, then the organization might decide to implement its own renewable power plant (such as a solar farm or wind farm) for fixed plant energy requirements. A sourcing project is undertaken to source the plant and then, once its up and running, additional projects are undertaken to control maintenance costs, etc. Year-over-year costs are tracked to insure the realized savings on a production-cost-per-megawatt basis are realized so that the organization will see its ROI within a defined period of time.

Piece of Cake, eh?

So You Think You’ve Mastered Strategic Sourcing Decision Optimization?

Well, the doctor has news for you. You haven’t. In fact, you’re not even close.

You might be applying at least baseline optimization to the majority of your high-dollar and/or strategic categories. You might be in the Hackett Group Top 8%. You might be building Billion Dollar sourcing models. You might be years ahead of your peers. But the reality is that when it comes to true strategic sourcing decision optimization (SSDO) mastery, you’re not even close.

With the exception of the two e-CHAOS vendors, the doctor interacts and/or works with all of the remaining vendors who offer true strategic sourcing decision optimization (which isn’t a hard thing to do as there are only seven*1 [7] vendors in total with a solution that meets the minimum requirements as set forth in the wikipaper), knows the depth of the projects these vendors have supported, and can say with confidence that the best of the best have barely mastered the basics of optimization 2.0. Barely. And optimization 3.0 is on the way.

[  As a history lesson, optimization 1.0 was circa 2000 when the first solutions that minimally met the four basic requirements of solid mathematical foundations (MILP), true cost modelling, constraint analysis, and what if? capability hit the market. Most of these were basic, supporting only supplier – product – customer DC mappings; unit and transportation costs and then one level of discounts or rebates; capacity, allocation, and min/max supplier selection constraints for very basic risk mitigation; and manually created what-if scenarios. In addition, maximum model size was limited, large models took hours to days to solve, and setting up and importing all of the data from multiple bid sheets across multiple spreadsheets often took days.

Then, circa 2005 to 2007, as a result of a considerable increase in computing power, algorithmic improvements, and domain knowledge, a few solutions started to improve rapidly and we hit the beginnings of optimization 2.0. The platforms evolved to make full use of the theory of logical variables in the MILP solvers; they also supported multiple supplier locations, product substitutions, and differential costs by lane*2; a buyer could define costs by way of a cost model with as few or as many factors as desired, at multiple tiers and with volume or spend-based discounts; a full plethora of allocation, capacity, and risk mitigation constraints that could define required and desired splits, address risk mitigation or mandate awards to a set of products, suppliers, and or regions, etc.; and could automatically generate what-if scenarios based on automatically adding or dropping previously defined or newly defined constraints, historical versus current pricing models, and other factors. In addition, import and export was streamlined from RFX, Auction, spreadsheet templates, and ERP systems (where standard transportation and overhead pricing was kept). State of the art report generators and OLAP capability was integrated so that not only could you generate scenario reports and comparative reports across scenarios, but you could also dive in to see what was driving the savings against the current sourcing strategy and, more importantly, what was driving the costs compared to the unconstrained baseline scenario (and zero-in on what business rules might be too costly).  ]

The reality is that the average best-in-class organization is only doing T-CAP strategic sourcing decision optimization, and is still far from achieving TCO. Basically, when the average organizations build their cost models, they are focussed on the costs of acquisition and production (and distribution) of the goods they are buying. They’re not incorporating downstream maintenance, service and return costs and not considering end-of-life reclamation, recycling, and disposal. Nor are they breaking the acquisition cost models down to determine the upstream impact costs associated with the supplier or production method. For example, if the supplier runs their factory on dirty coal and the company has pledged carbon neutrality and has to buy carbon credits to achieve their goal or the working conditions in the factory are unhealthy (and the factory would be closed down if it was in America) and this adds more fuel to the fire of the CSR activists and is costing your organization brand value, these costs also need to be considered. As a result, the organization is capping its potential return from optimization. Not only is the organization not achieving TCO, but it’s no where close to achieving TVM (total value management), which is what it has to achieve if it wants to realize true optimization 2.0 mastery and move on to optimization 3.0.

And the average organization is not even thinking about the more advanced opportunities that the next generation 3.0 capabilities will enable. Right now, the leading strategic sourcing decision optimization vendors are integrating new capabilities in the new versions of their products that are currently in development, with some basic 3.0 capabilities already released! The convergence of big data, advanced analytics, and decision optimization into a single platform is enabling a host of new capabilities that the average organization has not yet envisioned, including the 6 next-generation advanced sourcing optimization capabilities outlined in Sourcing Innovation’s new white paper on Optimization, What Comes Next (registration required), sponsored by Trade Extensions (which is one of the vendors working hard to give you tomorrow’s optimization solution today).

Companies that master the 6 next-generation advanced sourcing optimization capabilities described in Optimization, What Comes Next (registration required), will not only be the first to master optimization 2.0, but will be the first to enter the world of optimization 3.0 and find savings and cost avoidance opportunities that they never even knew existed.

Are you ready to crank the amp and take it to 11? If so, download Optimization, What Comes Next (registration required) today!

*1 search the SI archives if you don’t know who the seven are

*2 the MindFlow Model, which was recognized as the first SSDO model to support multi-line item optimization back in 2000, actually supported this level of modelling back in 2000, an average of five-plus years before the majority of SSDO solution providers did