Category Archives: Decision Optimization

Supply Chain Risks: Barriers to Manufacturing in Emerging and Developing Markets

Recently, The Center for Supply Chain Research at the Penn State SMEAL College of Business published a report on “Supply Chain Risks: Barriers to Manufacturing in Emerging and Developing Markets”
that reiterated what we’ve known for a while; that 73% of U.S. companies with revenue exceeding $1 Billion experienced supply chain disruptions in the past five years, that 70,000 companies went bankrupt in China in 2008, and that the average American company operating procurement in Asia found that the average company lost 8.2 Million over a three year time span due to illegal bribes and kickbacks.

It also told us that the five main categories of risk are trade, political, geophysical, economic indicator, and operational — and that all of these risks are prominent in emerging and developing markets, which we already knew. It also re-iterated the common mitigation strategies of:

  • Building Mitigation into the System via
    • Better Network Design
    • Supplier Financing
    • Multiple Manufacturing Locations
    • Monitoring of Public Source Risk Data
    • Contingency Plans
  • Use Technology Solutions such as
    • Scenario Planning
    • Visibility and RFID
    • Early Warning & Event Monitoring
  • Contract Outside Risk Experts

However, in addition to providing a detailed risk analysis of Africa, Asia and the Middle East, China, Latin America, and Eastern Europe, with risk scores for almost 40 individual countries that you should definitely review if you are sourcing from, or planning to source from, any of these areas, it made two very good points that I rarely see in discussions of risk and mitigation.

1. Rank your Risk on probability and significance of the loss.

Face it, unless a low probability risk is associated with a very significant loss, it’s not worth addressing if there are higher probability risks that are more likely to happen.

2. Dollarize the Risk.

Not only will associated hard dollar losses bring about the severity of relative risks, but if you know a risk is pretty much guaranteed to happen in a certain time-frame (for example, a hurricane or earthquake has a 95% probability of affecting your operations in a given 25 year period), you can amortize the cost associated with the impending loss and build a business case for investing in contingency planning and more expensive mitigations that, while costly up front, are guaranteed to significantly reduce your losses over the long term. And, while this is a topic for another post, if you dollarize the risks, the mitigation costs, and the expected loss reductions from the mitigations, you can optimize the application of your limited risk management budget.

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The Twelve Posts of Optimization

In the spirit of this month’s series on The Role of Optimization in Strategic Sourcing, which consisted primarily of:

I bring you the twelve days of optimization, which references some classic posts that you might want to review (again) to the tune of the twelve days of Christmas (as long as you can sing “optimization” really fast). Enjoy!

On the twelfth day of Optimization

my blogger gave to me:

4 Big Myths Exposed
Resources Online For Free
Supply Chain Networks
Expressive Bidding
Spend Analytics
The Way to Handle Freight
BoB’s Unique Talents
Five Questions Core
BoB’s Power Source
Packaging
Grand Challenges

and

Questions to Ask My Vendor

For those of you looking for “best-of” posts this holiday season, this is pretty much all you’re going to get.

The Role of Optimization in Strategic Sourcing – The Future of Optimization

This series discusses the recent report from CAPS Research on “the role of optimization in strategic sourcing”. The primary goal is to highlight, clarify, and, in some cases, correct parts of the report that are important, confusing, or incorrect to insure that you have the best introduction to strategic sourcing decision optimization that one can have.

What will the future hold? The authors predict development in the following two directions:

  1. more self-serve applications that require no third-party involvement
  2. more powerful services that handle even larger, more complex problems

In other words, the same-old same-old for the foreseeable future. I’m sad to say I have to agree. Until strategic sourcing decision optimization catches on, most of the current providers are not going to make significant investments exploring new vistas for a solution that the majority of their customers aren’t even coming close to stressing out today. You see, current applications are just “scratching the surface” of potential uses. Optimization is very powerful and could ultimately be used to optimize the entire supply chain.

However, the applications will continue to get more user-friendly and easier on the self-service front as providers get exposed to even wider ranges of models and uses and refine their interfaces to support even more possibilities (while simplifying the definition of the average model). So this is something to look forward to.

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Rudimentary Heuristics to Support the Concept of Optimization in Negotiations

Today’s post is from Dr. Lloyd M. Rinehart, an Associate Professor of Marketing and Logistics in the College of Business Administration at the University of Tennessee and author of numerous publications including “Creating Reality Based Relationships Through Effective Negotiation: Academic Concepts and Research Support”, “Creating Reality Based Relationships Through Effective Negotiation: Understanding the Negotiation Process”, and “Effective Negotiation: Understanding the Negotiation Process – A “Road Map” to Successful Sales and Purchasing Negotiation Performance in the Value System”. Lloyd can be reached at Rinehart <at> utk <dot> edu.

This post is based on my presentation at the 2009 MPower BPX roundtable and subsequent thoughts that arose out of my resulting discussions. The concepts that I introduced in the session included the definitional parameters of seven relationships that evolve out of negotiations. These seven relationships, which were covered in the doctor‘s review of my presentation in What Relationships Do You Have With Your Suppliers, include:

  • Non-Strategic Transactions,
  • Administered Relationships,
  • Contractual Relationships,
  • Joint Ventures,
  • Specialty Contract Relationships,
  • Partnerships, and
  • Alliances.

I am going to expand on the concept of definitional parameters of relationships in one form, but in order to do so, I am going to consolidate the seven relationships into three relationship categories:

  • Transactionally Driven (Non-Strategic Transactions and Administered Relationships),
  • Contractual / Investment Driven (Contractual Relationships and Joint Ventures), and
  • Relationally Driven (Specialty Contract Relationships, Partnerships and Alliances).

Generally, whether or not it is actually the case, managers perceive that between 30% and 40% of their relationships fall into each of these general categories. Before we continue, Let me define the characteristics of these relationships. They are built on the three dimensions of trust, interaction frequency, and commitment to the relationship. In other words:

  • Does the party trust the other party?
  • How much does the party interact and exchange with the other party?
  • How committed is the party to the other in terms of dependence and investment?

Transactionally Driven Relationships are low on trust, low on commitment, but can have a range of interaction and exchange.

Contractual / Investment Driven Relationships are “slightly” higher on the trust, interaction frequency, and commitment dimensions than the Transactionally Driven Relationships.

However, those that are Relationally Driven are significantly higher on the trust dimension, while that other dimensions have a range of values.

That brings the discussion to one of today’s hottest terms in business — “collaboration”! Unfortunately, that term, like many others, means about whatever the author would like it to mean (and, consequently, that leaves the readers to interpret the concept as they desire as well!). Herein, I am going to constrain “collaboration” to be situations in which trust in the other party is HIGH. That means that of the relationships listed above, “collaboration” occurs about 30% to 40% of the time.

Now wait a minute! I said that this post is the result of my thoughts and subsequent discussions, which included a discussion with Michael. My understanding is that some of Michael’s contributions to the space deal with the concept of “optimization” in sourcing and procurement. My definition of “optimization” includes the attempt to minimize or maximize inputs that capitalize on the best outcomes across the integration of the inputs. My first exposure to the concept of “optimization” was in mathematics and micro-economics. The micro-economics applications focused on how companies could optimize the characteristics of their operational inputs and outputs.

However, here we are talking about negotiation, which means that at least two parties, rather than one entity, need be optimized. Here is the problem with the percentages given in this post. Those relationship assessments were originally generated from the perceptions of only one of the parties to the relationship. Therefore, the original data does not actually represent the “dyads” (perceptions of both parties on the relationship.) While most managers view negotiations as being too sensitive to allow external researchers to become involved, we can successfully simulate similar relationship perceptions in contrived environments. The contrived environment allows the opportunity to pair up the parties into “dyads” for dyadic assessments.

Outcomes of those assessments indicate that, in reality, only 13% of the relationships reflect situations where BOTH parties perceive high trust in the other party. In this situation, both parties feel comfortable enough in the negotiation to share information with the other party and work together for the purpose of “optimizing” the joint inputs to the relationship between the “two parties”. That is how I define “collaboration”, and the data indicates that it probably does occur 13% of the time. It is also important to recognize that the process of “working together” in the negotiation process involves a “collaborative” strategy in which the parties are attempting to “optimize” the outcome in a “Win – Win” sense.

However, there is another situation, that constitutes 1% of relationships, where balance in the negotiation occurs. That is when both parties approach the negotiation and relationship from a “competitive” strategy perspective. In this case, both parties are very skilled and effective negotiators and collectively drive each other to outcomes that are similar to the “collaborative” outcomes, but instead reach that position by pushing the other party “hard” to achieve a mutually beneficial outcome. In other words, both parties are approaching the relationship from a Transactionally Driven perspective. Therefore, I believe two diametrically opposite relationship perspectives can lead to similar outcomes, even though the negotiation strategies are very different. However, regardless of the strategy implemented, the parties must thoroughly understand the negotiation process.

Before concluding, one other problem must be identified with this discussion. The 13% of the original 30% to 40% of relationships that were perceived to be “high trust” and the 1% of the relationships that were perceived to be low trust leaves 86% of the relationships unaddressed. Those are relationships that are unbalanced in the level of trust between the parties. If one trusts the other party less, then that party will most probably implement opportunistic strategies which will be “self” beneficial and, of course, at the expense of the other party. Therefore, it is critically important that both parties in a negotiation fully understand the negotiation process and know how various strategies can contribute or detract from the desired outcomes of the negotiation.

I hope these thoughts stimulate discussion (both pro and con) that may advance the quality of decision making in your organization.

Thanks, Lloyd!.

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Asset-Oriented Supply Chains Need Supply Chain Network Optimization

I couldn’t agree more with this recent headline from Supply Chain News that notes that Asset-Oriented Supply Chains Need Supply Chain Network Optimization More Than Ever because, like just about every other type of supply chains, they do. This is because, as IDC Manufacturing puts forward in a recent research report,

  • profitability is closely linked to the cost, and efficient use, of raw materials which are steadily increasing in price while market pressure is driving sales prices down,
  • high operating costs (partly due to the continual increase in the cost of energy and water) are making plant efficiency a key concern, and
  • changing demand patterns are adding additional strain to the supply chain from regional shifts and gaps between production and actual demand.

A good supply chain network optimization tool will allow a company with rising costs and shrinking revenues to understand the costs and benefits of each supply chain network option open to them and answer the following questions:

  • What is the optimal allocation of materials or customers to plants and/or distribution centers (DCs)?
  • What is the best location for new plants and/or DCs to minimize freight, inventory holding, and/or rail fleet costs while maximizing customer service levels?
  • How do we reallocate our capacity so we may close (temporarily or permanently) under-performing plants?
  • What capacity should we build into our plants, production lines, or processes, down to the requirements of specific machines or tools?
  • Based on our inventory levels and production capabilities, what is the optimal product mix, considering co- and byproducts?
  • Based on seasonal demand or production limits, what should we pre-build in inventory?
  • How do we optimize our production and distribution schedules for the desired levels of customer service and profitability?
  • What is the profitability impact of crossing borders – from currency exchange rates, tariffs, or duties?

And in this economic climate, such a tool may well make the difference between riding out the economic downturn and becoming a victim of it.

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