Category Archives: Global Trade

Four Hundred and Forty Five Years Ago Today

The Royal Exchange opened in London, and while only the exchange of goods took place until the 17th century, it has a long and rich history as the fifth oldest exchange in the world (preceded only by Antwerp Bourse, Lyons Bourse, Toulouse Bourse, and Hamburg Bourse). It was destroyed by fire twice (the first time in the great fire of 1666 and again in 1838) but still stands, in its third instantiation, today.

It serves as a reminder of just how long established trade has been taking place in the western world and how old Global Supply chains really are.

Geopolitical Damnation 25: Government Actions

We already know governments can be a daily source of damnation, and even though we’ve directly or indirectly addressed some of these damnations in our coverage of Waste Legislation (15), Customs Acts (28), Trade Embargoes (29), TPP & the Poison Pill (30), Tariffs (34), Labeling (36), and, especially in Consumer Damnation 71 Government, we’re going to discuss governmental actions again because, from a geopolitical perspective (as opposed to the environmental, consumer, and regulatory perspectives where the government has already received a significant amount of coverage in our damnation series to date), there is still so much more that they can do to make your job living hell.

Here are just a few of the damnations they can create that will cause you never ending nightmares.

Budget Freeze

If a budget can’t be agreed upon by a deadline, or a budget is exceeded and an overspend is not approved, until such time as the budget, or overrun, is approved, any an all payments owed to your company are on-hold. If you desperately need that cash for daily operating expenses for the big order you just delivered before the freeze, tough luck. Let’s hope you can get invoice financing or a bank loan when an expected payment date is unknown. But this is not as bad as a

State of Emergency

In a State of Emergency, you may be forced to supply goods or services to the government and/or consumers at pre-approved rates, even if such rates could net you a loss due to increased production or delivery costs in the state of emergency, and even if such goods were earmarked for sale to another customer in another locale willing to pay a premium rate. Even worse, you could be forced to deliver those goods when there is a budget freeze on, which not only prevents the organization from being paid for an unknown amount of time (and a restricted cash-flow severely hampers Procurement when the organization cannot pay its suppliers), but also clears it of inventory. Then, as we all know, there is no sale, no store.

New Legislation Outlawing Your Product or Service

As makers of betting and lottery technology, radar detection units, and even video game consoles know all too well, a single incident of consumer outrage or, even worse, the single minded focus of an effect lobbyist or lawmaker can result in your primary product becoming illegal almost overnight. Then the organization can be stuck with a glut of inventory, ironclad contracts (with huge penalty clauses), and, sometimes, no (obvious) way to get the product to where it might still be legal to sell the product in a secondary market. But yet Procurement will be expected to save the day and get the contracts nullified in exchange for new contracts for other, still legal, products, get rid of the inventory, and manage the paperwork hell that will ensue.

Criminal Charges against your Organization and/or Executives

Even if your organization unwittingly broke the law as a consequence of a rogue employee who broke the rules (despite training and policies in place to prevent it), a contractor, or a supplier that you couldn’t monitor as closely as you’d like, your organization could still be the organization brought up on charges. If an authorized party, acting in the interest of your business, makes a bribe, conducts business with a terrorist (organization), or purchases from a supplier that uses forced labour, you’re on the hook. And since Procurement is ultimately held responsible for policies and purchases, the heat will be coming down hard on Procurement.

There are, of course, a dozen more areas where government actions can pile on the damnation, but as these are among the nastiest that have not yet been covered in this series, we feel we’ve made our point. Enjoy the heat. (On the bright side, at least you’re not freezing in the cold northern winter.)

Geopolitical Damnation 27: UNCLOS

No, that’s not a typo. We’re not talking about UNCLES, we’re talking about UNCLOS, short for the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea — an international agreement that resulted from the third United Nations Conference that took place between 1973 and 1982 and finally came into effect in 1994 (a year after the 60th nation signed the treaty). (So if you think your Legal department is slow approving your latest contract, they’re running at breakneck speeds compared to the glacial United Nations.)

This international agreement, that has been agreed to by 166 countries and the European Union as of 2015, replaced the conventional freedom of the seas concept that was the de-facto, unwritten, agreement between nations from at least the early 17th to the late 20th century that stressed the freedom of all nations to navigate open waters.

However, as of the early 20th century, this de-facto unwritten agreement was not enough for those wishing to engage in global trade as nations that wanted to protect mineral resources, fish stocks, or pollution-free waters started to stretch the conventional definition of territorial waters from the accepted 3-mile limit all the way up to a new 12-mile zone in 66 cases and, in 8 cases, a 200-mile limit. If every country has a different territorial claim, how do you know if your ship suddenly leaves international waters and enters a nation’s waters, and, conversely, how do you know how long you have the protection of your nation while entering or exiting your waters?

Under this new agreement, countries have, from the low-water line or a straight baseline (when the coastline is deeply indented, has fringing islands, or is highly jagged) a:

  • 12 nautical mile territorial zone
    where the nation has complete control as it is free to set laws, regulate use, and use any resource; in this zone, vessels generally have the right if innocent passage
  • 12 nautical mile contiguous zone
    where the nation can continue to enforce laws in four specific areas: customs, taxation, immigration and pollution, but only if the infringement started within the state’s territory or territorial waters, or if this infringement is about to occur within the state’s territory or territorial water
  • 200 nautical mile exclusive economic zone
    where the coastal nation has sole exploitation rights over all natural resources.

This all sounds crisp and clean, but there are a number of caveats that you need to be aware of if you are the Procurement person responsible for managing ocean freight.

You have no protection against theft or piracy beyond the 12 nautical mile territorial zone.

Unless the product originated from, or is being shipped to, the nation the contiguous zone belongs to, then the nation has no claim to customs or taxation, and can’t do anything. So, from a shipping perspective, the continuous and extended zones offer you nothing.

You have no protection from the nation within the 12 nautical mile territorial zone (or even the 12 nautical mile contiguous zone under certain circumstances).

The right of innocent passage is only valid so long as you are passing through waters in an expeditious and continuous manner, which is not “prejudicial to the peace, good order or the security” of the coastal state. If the nation decides that your vessel is a threat, it can be stopped, seized, and the crew brought up under criminal (or terrorist) charges and held indefinitely without release.

You don’t even have protection against the nation in the extended zone.

If your vessel or crew gets associated with a crew or vessel that is trying to illegally exploit natural resources in any way, shape, or firm, your vessel can be stopped, seized, and the crew brought up under criminal charges.

Now, the chances of these last two happening are low, unless your vessel is registered to a nation that is currently at diplomatic odds with the nation whose waters it is passing through. For example, if there are embargoes or military conflict, the vessel can be captured simply to use as a negotiation point. Not always likely, but always a possibility hiding in the darkest corners of the shadows just beyond the corner of your eye.

The crux of this post is that when it comes to open waters, it doesn’t matter whether your ship is in a zone or not, because either way it’s not safe. Protection from pirates leaves it open to seizure by law enforcement and freedom from law leaves it open to pirates. Damnation covers the open sea.

Geopolotical Damnation 29: Trade Embargoes

Today’s supply chains depend on global sourcing and global trade. However, a single trade embargo with a single country on a single commodity can disrupt an entire supply chain. If you depend on apples for your primary CPG product line, beef for your restaurants, or rare earth minerals for your cell phone, and your primary supply line gets cut off, now what?

Or, even worse, if the country in question decides that gaming systems are destroying society and your main product is a gaming system, that gambling is now illegal and your main products are video lottery machines, or that coal is too dirty to burn and your company is a mining operation, instead of case closed, it could be business closed. (And all of these situations have happened in recent years!)

Note that an embargo is more than just a block on trade, it’s also a restriction on trade that restricts how much can be imported or exported or the tariffs that are charged to import or export. For example, China recently ended it’s export quota for rare-earth minerals essential for high-technology products including smartphones. But what if it’s re-instituted, and re-instituted more restricted than before? Especially when they supply up to 97% of the rare earth minerals needed worldwide?

Or what happens when a country decides that it wants to enforce a buy-local policy and increases import tariffs on a category from 10% to 100% or more? For example, last December the US Department of Commerce announced new anti-dumping and anti-subsidy rates for PV (photovoltaic) products imported from China and Taiwan, with the primary CVD (chemical vapour decomposition) rate for Trina Solar increasing from 18.56% to 49.79% in less than six months. This is nothing compared to the “China-wide” rate of 165% for smaller PV providers! But the US isn’t the only company that does this. Every country in the BRICS is constantly changing their import rates as well, sometimes in response to North American or Europe rate changes, sometimes in response to local taxpayer and/or lobbyist demand. (Brazil recently updated its HS code 80 times in one year!)

Needless to say, a tripling of the import/export rate or a restriction on exports that cuts your limited supply in half can be almost as damaging as a full embargo against a commodity or product. If the restriction results in a widespread failure to meet the demand, which in turn results in bad press, the end result could be considerable brand damage and a widespread migration of your customers to your competitor. This drop in revenue puts the entire company at risk, which will greatly impact the Procurement budget and the ability of the department to perform!

Geopolitical Damnation 26: The WTO

The WTO, or World Trade Organization, is an intergovernmental organization that regulates international trade, and one you need to be intimately familiar with if international trade is core to your business. Officially commencing operations twenty point five years ago on January 1, 1995 as a result of the Marrakech Agreement, signed by 123 nations, it replaced the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) that had governed international trade since 1948.

It serves to provide a framework for negotiating trade agreements and for establishing a dispute resolution process for alleged breaches of WTO agreements. Now, it is true that most of the agreements negotiated, as well as most of the mediations that take place, are between nations and, more specifically, their governing bodies, but the agreements that are negotiated, and mediated, limit what your private sector organization can import and export.

Being aware of what is going on is critical if you are involved in trading a commodity that is governed by an agreement being mediated or enforced by the WTO; if your government body is trying to enforce buy local or foreign exchange restrictions (as measures requiring the use by an enterprise of domestics products or measures restricting access to foreign imports to export amounts are explicitly prohibited as all members of the WTO agreed to the Agreement on Trade-Related Investment Measures [TRIMs]); or if your organization is trying to protect, and enforce, its intellectual property rights internationally as the WTO Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights [TRIPS] governs IP with respect to trade, for example.

Similarly, it’s important to be up to date on what’s not going on. For example, the current round of negations between member countries, which was dubbed the Doha Development Round, which was supposed to make globalization more inclusive and help the world’s poor by slashing barriers and subsidies in farming, has been ongoing since November 2001, with no end in site. As a result, many countries are resorting to establishing their own bilateral trade agreements, which they may or may not be all too public about until the agreements are signed. Case in point — The Trans Pacific Partnership (which is so egregious it is a Damnation in itself).

But if you keep up with what’s going on, you know whether the material, product, or service you’re interested in is covered under a WTO (mediated and regulated) agreement, whether it’s a bilateral agreement between your country and the country being exported from or imported into, or whether an agreement is being negotiated that will cover the material, product, or service and, more importantly, whether your lobby group, or your local manufacturers’ association lobby group, should be sticking their nose where the government may not want it to make sure that the negotiators understand all of the issues and what is good for private industry.

It’s important to remember that these agreements not only define the framework of international trade, but the bilateral agreements being negotiated now by those countries too impatient to wait for the close of the Doha round (which could take another decade) define the tariffs that private industry has to pay. And if tariffs come into effect that are too high on your primary product lines, your organizational existence could be in jeopardy. Unless Supply Management can find another source (or sink) in another country, the organization could be forced to change product or service lines or even go out of business.

For the most part, having framework and agreements is a good damnation, but it’s still a damnation nonetheless.