Category Archives: Global Trade

Seven Sourcing Strategies for Today’s Turbulent Times Part 2

4. Coopetition Collectives and Frenemy Facilitation

If your volumes are low or if the supplier needs more business to ensure long-term stability, then you might need to work with your competitors to form specialized captive GPOs for key common materials and components where you all need to ensure that the supply continues to flow.

But you might need to go one step further — if your peers are smaller and less financially stable then you, you may need to invest in some of your (potential) indirect competitors who require the same materials and components from the same suppliers you need your materials and components from. You may need to identify organizational needs you can buy from them to ensure their stability. For example, as an automotive company, if you only made sedans, you could invest in competitors that only made trucks and vans by buying their products for your local delivery fleets. It’s all about strengthening your strategic supply base.

5. Real-Time Product Design Substitution

It’s no longer enough to just identify substitute products when your primary source goes offline, but to have alternate product designs that can be made with different components and materials to satisfy a significant portion of your client’s needs if one of your critical suppliers becomes unavailable. In electronics, the ability to substitute different off-the-shelf chips and boards is key, especially if they are of different form factors. In control systems, different power systems, converters, and control software. Etc. If your clients just have a need to fulfill, multiple options should be available.

6. Supply Chain Enabled Sourcing

Building on supply chain aware supplier splits, carriageway carrier consolidation, and real-time product design substitution. it becomes clear that the next generation sourcing needed for today’s turbulent times is supply-chain enabled sourcing. There’s a reason that Bob Ferrari and I claimed that standard sourcing solutions don’t work for direct, and that’s because they don’t. In direct supply chains, sourcing needs to be integrated, or at least tightly orchestrated, with supply chain and logistics solutions to be successful. Otherwise, you’re not optimizing to reality, and your best laid plans will be a total work of fiction.

7. Busch-Lamoureux Exact Purchasing

We all know the Kraljic Matrix, along with every other quadrant-based sourcing methodology is broken, but no one tells you the reason why — which is risk, complexity, and impact are all fully independent dimensions that need to be measured on completely different axes and no matter how hard you try to compress them into 2-dimensions, it will never be accurate.

But in Busch-Lamoureux Exact Purchasing, we treat them as three separate dimensions and break your sourcing categories down into a pocket cube (with 8 octants). This allows us to define appropriate methodologies and technologies to accurately address each category with confidence. Something no other methodology gives you!

Seven Sourcing Strategies for Today’s Turbulent Times Part 1

1. Sales Visibility, Sliced and Diced

For years you were told that spend visibility was the key to success. For many years I echoed that claim, because it was the truth — success required understanding your spend — who was spending with whom, where, for what, and why. The ability to slice and dice not just by category and product and supplier but location, customer base, etc. was key to understanding where your opportunities were, what volumes you should be ordering, what suppliers you should be considering, where you should have contracts, and where you shouldn’t.

But that was in the age of globalization when global trade was steady, conflicts were low, maritime channels were open, and tariffs were low and stable. Today, many countries are returning to isolationism and/or off-limits due to sanctions, conflicts are many, maritime channels are constantly restricted or closed (Panama Canal has restricted throughput during droughts and the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz are regularly restricted or closed due to Middle East conflicts), and one country in particular keeps changing tariffs on a leader’s whims.

Not only is supply assurance the name of the game, but supply assurance in the product lines that will sell. With costs constantly on the rise (since inflation has returned as well), you need to be focussed on your top selling product lines, and how to ensure those don’t get interrupted. This will require diving into your sales data to see what is really selling, what is trending upwards, where the product is needed, and how best to allocate your orders and shipments to serve the customers. (Then, once you have figured out what you need and how to ensure supply, you can focus on spend.)

2. Supply Chain Aware Supplier Splits

You’ve been told for decades that you need to dual-source to mitigate risk in case of disaster or unexpected supply chain disruption, and while chances are you still aren’t doing it in some key categories, dual sourcing is not enough. Two suppliers in the same region, or that depend on the same supply base is not effective dual sourcing since a single event could take them both out of the picture. You need your decisions to be geologically and supply-chain aware.

And that works great if you’re only sourcing for one regional market, both are in friendly / pseudo-safe countries that aren’t too far away, and shipping lanes are relatively secure — but if you are sourcing for multiple geologically distinct and separate regions (which can be half a world away), the home countries are not friendly, and shipping lanes are a geopolitical spat away from being shut down, that’s a supply chain shutdown waiting to happen.

If you are a global multi-national selling in multiple, geologically distinct regions (North America, Latin America, UK, Europe, Middle East, Asia, Australia, etc.), you need to be building a multi-supplier global supply base where you have a primary supplier close to each location in a friendly, or at least, safe country and a backup supplier not too far away, which can be the primary supplier for another region. You might need half a dozen to a dozen suppliers for some products / categories to ensure supply assurance.

3. Carriageway Carrier Consolidation

Just like you will need multiple suppliers, you will need multiple carriers — at least one per region, and two if your shipments are large or the reliability of any single carrier (due to financial situation, fleet size, etc.) is questionable. You’ll have to group your lanes by regional transit and select the appropriate carrier for each just like you’ll have to select the right supplier for each region.

An Updated Checklist for Major International Procurements

Twenty years ago we presented a slightly modified version of a great checklist by Mr Paul Emanuelli who presented key concepts for major procurements in the age of globalization and a movement by the mid-market to take advantage of the global sourcing opportunities big enterprise had been taking advantage of since the 80s. It wasn’t complete, but it was complete enough for an average organization and a great start.

But that was the age of globalization. Opening borders. Minimal conflicts. Reasonable levels of natural disasters. Efforts to ensure major maritime routes were not blocked by any disagreements or conflicts were made. Piracy was an issue, but alternate routes and good (military) security minimized impacts.

Now we’re in the age of isolationism. Borders are closing. Sanctions are restricting others. Conflicts and wars are breaking out with regional impacts. Major maritime routes are being blocked as a result of conflict, including the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, putting trillions of dollars of trade at risk. Natural disasters, including droughts, are also limiting trade routes, including restricted passage through the Panama Canal due to water shortages. The rules have changed, and your Procurement (knowledge) needs to keep up.

This means two things:

1. Your Team Needs to Expand

When once upon a time you may have been able to get away with:

  • procurement lead
  • finance lead
  • legal counsel lead

Now you also need, at a minimum:

  • logistics lead
  • domain lead
  • (geopolitical) risk lead
  • compliance lead

These stakeholders will need to provide the following insight between them:

  • procurement: handles the details of the buy — cost vs expected return
  • logistics: handles the global supply chain – carriers, modes, import/export requirements, etc.
  • finance: handles the international economics — currency exchange, projections, international banking arrangements, tariff management and (VAT) reclamation
  • legal counsel: appropriate international legal frameworks, supplier home country law, local laws
  • domain lead: realistic supplier and product assessment vs. supplier claims
  • compliance lead: handles international compliance regulations — source country, intermediate transportation hubs, and local companies with respect to finished goods, raw materials, transport, and entities
  • (geopolitical) risk lead: keeps a handle on the international geopolitical conditions relative to the source country, destination country, and any intermediate countries the goods would have to pass through — and if they are likely to lead to sanctions, border closings, conflicts, wars or other situations that could prevent or significantly hinder trade

In other words, the analysis of a potential buy has become significantly more involved than it was 20 years ago, because it’s not just the buy, it’s the likelihood of supply assurance and affordability when exchange rates can fluctuate significantly almost over night or fuel, and thus carrier costs, can double or triple with almost no warning.

Once you’ve selected the team, you need to determine the extent of the project. Is it a sourcing project or a mega project. If you’re simply replacing a source of supply, and using a supplier in a region you’re already doing business in, it’s a project. If you’re looking for a source of supply for a new product or material, trying to enter a new country, and/or looking somewhere you don’t have a logistics network, it’s a mega-project. Just like a major technological project / system replacement, underestimating the effort involved is a recipe for disaster. Especially if the effort is not put in up front before a contract is signed and an issue crops up later.

This means that before the contract is signed, the following sub-projects need to be completed:

  • detailed product requirements assessment
  • detailed proposed supplier and product assessment
  • detailed proposed logistics / supply chain network
  • detailed legal frameworks review
  • detailed compliance and risk review
  • detailed business plan

Only then, can you move forward to:

  • contract framework
  • negotiations
  • final contract

International procurements are not as easy, or predictable, as they were 20 years ago. Now they’re mega-projects which require mega-effort to get right.

We Know You Should Have A Lot Of Global Trade Data …

As per our last post, if you want to design and run a relatively smooth running supply chain, you need a lot of data. As per our post, at a minimum:

  • product compositions
  • supplier locations
  • route details
  • alternate products, suppliers, and routes
  • sanctions
  • denied parties
  • tariffs, export and import
  • taxes and recoverables
  • carbon/GHG
  • commodity market and product cost data
  • currency conversions and trends
  • natural disaster risks
  • man-made disaster data
  • consumer and market sentiment data

Which leaves you with two major problems.

  1. where do you get it?
  2. how do you manage it?

There are two choices on where to get it:

  1. data consolidators and brokers
  2. government / public sector sources

As much as possible, you want to rely on option b), because, in this AI-HYPE filled world, data is now the most valuable commodity, the data brokers know it, and even when they are getting it from a government / public source (for free) and then processing it for your consumption, they are charging a premium for it. A subscription to even a fraction of the above data could cost you more than the annual SaaS subscriptions you are feeding it into (not counting your AI token costs which are going to continue to increase without bound if you are unnecessarily relying on AI for tasks you do not, and should not, be using Gen-AI LLMs for).

So you want to use the cheap/free government and public sources as much as possible. While this sounds easy enough, every single source will be in a different format, with different access requirements, different update frequencies, and different levels of completeness. We’re talking about everything from Excel files to real-time json requests, with multiple types of authorizations, access protocols, and transport protocols.

This bring us to the second issue — how do you manage it?

You basically need a DIY data orchestration platform. And the reality is, the majority of today’s orchestration providers, despite their grand claims, don’t really do that! Out-of-the-box, you can only integrate solutions they have already integrated with, and only import any data they have previously mapped. Plus, they are limited in intake to what they have designed for. Most of them aren’t even as powerful as last generation data mapping frameworks that allowed a data analyst to integrate all of the data from various sources into one common, central, database. (Now, it typically involved creating yet another data warehouse / lake / lakehouse.)

What you need is a next-gen supply chain orchestration platform that was built from the ground up to allow you to plug, play, and orchestrate data sources as well as workflows and applications using pre-defined mappings, Web 3.0 Markup, standard terminology, and statistical AI (with known confidence) that will auto-map as much as possible, minimize what can’t be auto-mapped, and generate additional data objects and tables for storage where your systems aren’t already handling that type of data.

A next generation system that also incorporates auto-mapping, auto-schema-extension, and auto-data-orchestration alongside workflow construction and third party system integration using APIs, MCP, and other integration technologies along with all of the common authorization protocols. A fully dynamic data platform that can serve as the core of a next generation SCP platform. One that is a level beyond the majority of platforms calling them orchestration platforms today,

And, finally, one that understands how to organize, federate, and classify data for true analysis.

But that’s another post!

How Much Global Trade Data Should You Have?

As per our recent series on supply chain stability, and the need for visibility and audits, you need a lot of supply chain data. On your products, suppliers, and routes. As well as their products, suppliers, and routes. Down to the source.

But is that all you need — just suppliers, products, and routes down to the source?

Well, as per our previous series, you also need detailed data on alternate locations and other product offerings from your suppliers, alternate suppliers and their alternate product offerings, alternate routes, and alternate carriers that service them.

But that’s not enough.

Product existence is not availability, and availability is not obtainability. You also need to know if the countries, parties, or connected parties (owners) are sanctioned and if they use restricted or banned substances in their products or operations. If so, you can’t do business with them … and spending hours, days, weeks or months evaluating them just to figure that out when you try to order the first shipment.

But even if there are no sanctions or official roadblocks, it still might not be possible to acquire the goods you want from certain suppliers due to export and import tariffs. That means you need to know any export tariffs and import tariffs that will be applied, in the export country, import country, and any intermediate countries (that may not have [usable] FTZs).

Also, since some goods and services will be acquired, change hands, or used in the source countries, you also have to be aware of all the country, state, and municipal taxes that you will need to pay, as well as any taxes you can potentially reclaim.

This means we’re up to:

  • product compositions
  • supplier locations
  • route details
  • alternate products, suppliers, and routes
  • sanctions
  • denied parties
  • tariffs, export and import
  • taxes and recoverables

Is that all?

Well, in some countries you have to be cognizant of carbon/GHG production, so you need to be able to track how much carbon is produced in the production of each unit and be able to report that when needed, as well as control that if the country the good is being produced in, or sold in, has a carbon quota or carbon tax.

And it sounds like we’re nearing completion, but not really.

We left out cost data. If you have to find alternate products or suppliers, you really want to understand your costs. And not just market costs, should costs. Which means you should be tracking, when possible, raw commodity costs, component and part costs that allow you to estimate production costs on top of input costs, and currency exchanges, that allow you to build reasonable should cost models.

And while this might be enough to make perfect sourcing plans, we all know plans rarely turn into reality. So having the data to build the perfect hypothetical supply chain is a great start, but only in theory. In practicality, you need to know how realistic the supply chain is.

This means you need relevant supply line related data as well. Transport times, and risk of spoilage and theft are critical. As is natural disaster risk data related to storms (hurricanes, tsunamis, [fire] tornados), the possibility of floods, wildfires, blizzards; and earthquakes (or volcanic eruptions) in areas where they are common. You need to track this data to judge the potential reliability of supply chains.

Now we’ve added:

  • carbon/GHG
  • commodity market and product cost data
  • currency conversions and trends
  • natural disaster risks

While you think this may be everything, we’re sad to say that while it’s close, it’s not.

It’s not just natural disasters that matter, it’s man-made disasters. Mines collapsing, factories burning down, and unexpected supplier and carrier bankruptcies can also bring down your supply chains. So you need real-time event data.

Furthermore, while it won’t bring down supply chains, it can greatly vary demand and being aware of consumer sentiment, including mass displeasure and (potential) boycotts. If you’re selling consumables or creating high-priced electronics with a limited shelf-life, you don’t want to overproduce. And if there are indications of a demand surge, you want to be prepared so you don’t have costly stock-outs that could result in unhappy customers.

That’s quite a lot of data. And that’s a minimum.