Category Archives: Guest Author

8 Key Design Considerations for Optimizing Your Demand Planning Process: Part II


Today’s guest post is from Josh Peacher, a Senior Consultant in the Operations Practice of Archstone Consulting, A Hackett Group Company.

In the first installment, we focused on defining the 4 basic design considerations for optimizing your organization’s demand planning process. These considerations included:

  1. Utilization of time series forecasting and exception management to drive a base forecast
  2. Selecting the right software tool for your business
  3. Identifying a set of core metrics and KPIs that help to identify opportunities and drive accountability
  4. Effectively leveraging external information to elicit a more accurate forecast

These design considerations are foundational in nature and effectively addressing each will ensure that your organization’s demand planning process has a solid base. However, to truly move the needle towards world class performance, a set of more advanced considerations must be applied.

5. Drive Towards a Consensus Demand Plan

A formal demand planning process should conclude with an aligned set of forecast numbers that the entire organization understands and can speak to. This doesn’t necessarily mean that a “One-Number” forecast must be reached as this can be very difficult and cause a whole set of different issues. However, organizations should look to align on a set of numbers and be prepared to speak to and manage to the gaps. Key participants in the consensus demand plan conversation include Sales and Account Teams, Finance, Supply Planning, and Demand Planning. Each of these groups will bring a different perspective and set of information to the discussion resulting in a more informed final demand plan.

6. Identify the Right Level of Detail

When defining the appropriate level of detail to forecast at, leading companies strike a balance between importance to the business and complexity of the process. The diagram below defines a general set of guidelines for identifying the appropriate level of forecast detail based on the situation. As a general rule of thumb, the more important and complex the set of items is to the business, the higher the required level of detail and rigor.

Complexity vs. Importance

7. Ensure Adequate Resources

As I mentioned in the first installment, demand planning is commonly an overlooked element of supply chain planning. This often leads to an insufficient allocation of resources by the organization. Demand planning is an arduous process that requires a high level of dedication and attention. More times than not, I see organizations that have failed to realize this and leave their demand planning team without the necessary bandwidth to perform effectively. The net effect is a less accurate forecast, poor demand signals trickling through the system, and a higher turnover rate. A few simple rules of thumb to ensure that your organization is not falling into this trap include the following:

  • Install dedicated analysts for demand planning.
    This will ensure that demand planners are focusing on value-add activities and have the right information on hand to make informed decisions.
  • Make sure that your demand planners aren’t wearing too many organizational hats.
    It’s an odd phenomenon but demand planners often end up taking on responsibilities that are well outside of their job scope and not essential to their core function. The best way to decipher this is just to simply ask them where their pain points are. Trust me … they will tell you!
  • Understand which segments are the most critical and complex to the business and distribute them across your demand planner resources.
    Ideally, each of your demand planners will have a portfolio of demand responsibilities that are evenly distributed amongst the four quadrants of the above diagram.

8. Define your Organization Process Model

Too often I have seen organizations operating in an environment of chaos because they lack a defined process and cadence for their demand planning cycle. You may believe that you have a process in place, but can you articulate what it is? Can the demand planning resources in your organization define the calendar of events that make up the process? Many times what people believe to be a process is actually floating tribal knowledge and tends to vary depending on who you ask within the organization. Without a well-defined process, it’s difficult to hold others accountable and overall performance tends to suffer. An optimal process must be defined for each organization based upon it’s unique set of variables and constraints. However, the list below is a set of monthly activities that can be found in most leading company processes.

  • Prepare Data –
    Cleanse and gather all required data for the demand planning process (internal and external)
  • Generate Initial Forecast –
    Generate both the base statistical forecast and manage exception SKUs manually
  • Incorporate Market Intelligence –
    Collaborate with trade partners and external contacts to incorporate quantitative and qualitative data into the forecast (e.g., POS Data, Customer Forecast, Promotional Calendars, Pull-Forward Buys)
  • Consensus Reconciliation Meeting –
    Meet with sales and finance to reconcile the bottoms up forecast with top down financials and sales forecasts
  • Refine and Publish Final Forecast –
    Make final adjustments to forecast before transmitting to ERP
  • Monitor Performance –
    Monitor forecast for large anomalies and diagnose root cause of error

Thanks, Josh!

Why Big Brains Will Beat Big Data in Procurement


Today’s guest post is from Ryann Kahn, Marketing and Communications Manager at Source One Management Services.

Two weeks ago, the Sourcing Innovation blog published an article about how the three cognitive traps stifle global innovation. I couldn’t help but think about how the same points could be made in procurement: data (though usually we don’t have Big Data) can help overcome some common issues, but ultimately Big Brains are more important and effective at the same job.

Take a procurement sourcing project for example.

The commonly used traditional three-bid process is data driven. It implies that if you collect enough (i.e. three pieces of) data, then you are making a good decision. Now, by collecting three bids, you know you are not getting the worst price and service out there and you are encouraging some competition. But without category expertise or a strategic process in place, can you really consider the data alone enough to justify that you have made a wise and innovative decision? Data != strategic sourcing.

But the data itself can often lead to the confirmation bias that the doctor referenced previously. Was your RFP template (or software solution) structured in a way that drove you to the conclusion that you already had envisioned? For example, if you want to remain with your local incumbent supplier, does your scorecard penalize suppliers for not having a location near you? Did you only request pricing on a specific product, which you knew your preferred supplier had the best (or only) price available? Confirmation bias in the sourcing world is real and common. Many companies effectively eliminate competition with better solutions because of the way they structure their questions.

By contrast, a true strategic sourcing process uses data in a Big Brain process.

The first step is a spend analysis of data from contracts, supplier invoices, P-Cards, supplier reports, POs, and more. (That’s a lot of data.) Then we look at market intelligence, historical trending, new products or process enhancements and benchmark data. (Now that’s Big Data!) All of this information is pulled, assessed, and analyzed. But the data alone does not give a full picture of a company’s spend. It takes the “curious, open mind” to uncover the whole story. Data may suggest inadequacies, but only through more in-depth research and thorough interviews with stakeholders and end users will one be able to identify problems and usage requirements.

The next step of the strategic sourcing process is the sourcing strategy. Again, it begins with data collection to cast a wide net of suppliers and determine their capabilities. But the bulk of the work in this stage belongs to the Big Brain: creating the supplier strategy, envisioning an RFx strategy, and planning for an execution strategy.

Even if procurement evolves to join the Big Data bandwagon, data will never be able to replace a human category expert. A category expert comes armed with nuanced knowledge of market trends, characteristics, players, and history, and uses analytical skills to apply that to plain data. Or, as the HBR article says, “When we look at markets different from our own we often have little information”. An expert who has been intimately involved with sourcing a category for years will be able to achieve better results than a novice armed with data, or the most powerful e-sourcing tool, any day.

In the final phases of the strategic sourcing process, implementation and compliance, it is entirely the work of a Big Brain. Experts must ensure that a company is actually achieving the results that were identified in the earlier phases in terms of savings and level of service. These experts may use tools to help collect the data to support the process, but the tools themselves don’t do an adequate job of capturing the data that is important to the unique organizational situation.

Data can, and does, help make good sourcing decisions, but ultimately it’s the Big Brains that lead the way. A Big Brain will always be needed to strategically apply the data (big or small), and be the “curious, open-minded researcher” to make a good decision.

Thanks, Ryann.

8 Key Design Considerations for Optimizing Your Demand Planning Process: Part I


Today’s guest post is from Josh Peacher, a Senior Consultant in the Operations Practice of Archstone Consulting, A Hackett Group Company.

Demand Planning was once an overlooked element of supply chain management. However, more and more companies are beginning to understand how essential this component is to overall operational well-being. After all, a demand forecast is the genesis of the supply chain process. If poor demand signals are being sent through the system, it becomes extremely difficult to manage raw material and finished goods inventories, execute an efficient manufacturing process, effectively service customers, and ultimately drive an accurate financial forecast. So if your organization hasn’t already taken a long, hard look at improving its demand planning process, it’s time to begin. As a starting point for your journey, let’s take a look at the 8 key design considerations for optimizing your demand planning process. In this first installment, we’ll focus on the 4 most basic design considerations and then move to more advanced principals in the second installment.

1. Start with Statistical Forecasting and Exception Management

  • Statistical forecasting should always drive the original forecast. A simple set of formulas such as exponential smoothing, weighted moving average, and Holt-Winters can deliver more accurate, reliable, and efficient forecasts across the entire sku base than manual forecasts. This can often be a change management challenge for many organizations as demand planners feel a pride of ownership over their forecast and have trouble with relinquishing control to a set of arithmetic functions. This is where exception reporting comes into play.
  • Exception reporting utilizes a set of pre-defined criteria to identify skus that are not ideal candidates for statistical forecasting. Since the strength of statistical forecasting comes from identifying patterns in demand history, highly erratic and/or variable skus are not good candidates and require manual intervention of the forecast. While exception criteria are customizable, common filters include frequent zero demand periods, high variance between last 6 months history and next 6 months forecast, high variance in month-over-month demand history, and frequent shortages. Exception reporting is also an excellent way for demand planners to prioritize their time across the sku set and focus their efforts on the skus that truly require attention.

2. Select the Right Software Tool

In today’s environment of sku proliferation and real time information, it’s become a necessity to utilize a demand planning tool to assist with the demand planning process. Software solutions such as Manugistics, SAP APO, and Logility all have their strengths and weaknesses. Key criteria to evaluate when selecting a solution include:

     
  • Customer service reputation of the provider
  • The tool’s ability to handle forecasting nuances (i.e., 5-4-4 calendar recognition and promotional forecasts)
  • Transparency and reliability of the generated statistical forecast
  • Forecast performance reporting and exception reporting capabilities
  • Flexibility to forecast at multiple levels (e.g., sku, customer, category, business unit)

3. Track the Right Metrics

Demand planning metrics should serve two purposes:

  1. Identify improvement opportunities and
  2. Drive accountability.

The appropriate metrics will vary based on the characteristics of the industry and company in question. However, a few core, agnostic metrics are routinely found in leading organizations. These include:

     
  • WAPE (Weighted Absolute Percent Error) – In my opinion, WAPE is the most balanced and telling measure of forecast error. Some professionals will advocate for MAPE. However, MAPE doesn’t effectively account for volume as the forecast error % for each period is treated equally.
  • BIAS – Bias is similar to forecast error. However, bias provides a measurement of whether your forecast tends to be above or below actual demand thus signaling a forecasting over/under “bias”.
  • Period-over-Period Error Trend – You’ll want to understand whether your demand planning process is improving or digressing. Measuring the forecast accuracy over time will also help to identify meaningful changes occurring in the business.

4. Leverage the Correct Data

Statistical forecasting and exception management will help to get a reasonably accurate forecast. However , to drive forecast error down to best-in-class levels, demand planners must leverage external information.

As the graphic above shows, there is an abundance of information that demand planners could call upon to help them adjust their forecast. The real art of demand planning is knowing which of these data sources to use and when. Over time, your organization will get a sense for which information streams are most relevant and can begin to build a rules-based process around the use of external information.

Thanks, Josh! We look forward to Part II.

The Most Important Word In Supplier Relationship Management Is Not What You Think It Is


Today’s guest post is from Joe Payne, Vice President of Professional Services at Source One Management Services, LLC. Joe co-wrote the book on Managing Indirect Spend: Enhancing Profitability through Strategic Sourcing.

It may be an old story, but it is still an important story in any discussion of Supplier Relationship Management (SRM). According to Business Insider, with about six weeks to go before the launch of the iPhone in 2007, an angry Steve Jobs pulled his senior team into an impromptu meeting on a Monday morning. His plastic-screen’d iPhone prototype was scratched, and he demanded a glass screen be fitted to the iPhone. Specifically, he is quoted as saying “I want a glass screen. And I want it perfect in six weeks“.

If you read the Walter Isaacson biography on Jobs, you can imagine a few other words were in those two sentences. But that is not critical to this story.

Here is the important part. Once Apple and Corning perfected the art of cutting glass so intricately on a massive scale, they had two weeks to get the new glass faces on the phones. Their assembler, Foxconn, woke its employees when the first glass shipments arrived in the middle of the night, and arranged for production to run non-stop.
Not every supplier is going to wake its staff in the middle of the night to cater to your needs, but when you maintain a close relationship with them, and firmly establish the ways in which each party is critical to the other’s success, then the proverbial (and in Apple’s case, actual) doors open. This is the critical takeaway from any talk on Supplier Relationship Management: those in-depth relationships with your suppliers can lead to competitive advantages ranging from moving up in that supplier’s priority list to getting first dibs on their innovative practices and products.

The importance of Supplier Relationship Management is not lost on sourcing professionals and the industry at large, but the most important aspect of SRM seems to have been lost; or if not lost, then effectively drowned out by savvy marketers. A Googling of “Supplier Relationship Management” produces more than eight million results, but the first page is dominated by companies selling SRM software. When I googled, seven of the first page’s organic results, and all of the ad space, are dedicated to software solutions. While “Management” is an important aspect of “Supplier Relationship Management”, and having a clear view of your organization’s entire supplier pool is critical to effectively working with them, the value of SRM comes from the “Relationship” portion. Worded another way, no supplier has ever given a customer exclusive access to a new product because that customer put them in a database!

I should probably stop here to note that SRM software is a great way to manage all of your suppliers, and relatively easy to implement across all of them. Relationship-building, by comparison, is an impractical across-the-board practice returning minimal results for maximized efforts for all suppliers outside those producing critical, hard-to-obtain, or otherwise-important materials for your organization.

That said, “Relationship” is the critical term of SRM when dealing with critical suppliers. Period. Supplier relationship software allows you to track purchases, organize data, and better understanding of your organization’s demand for a supplier’s goods — all of which are tactical, short-term measures. Building relationships, on the other hand, is crucial for your organization’s critical suppliers, as it allows you to talk frankly with them and develop the long-term strategies necessary for mutual success. And it provides critical benefits.

So what are those critical benefits? For starters,

Preferential Access to the Supplier — Much like Apple was able to rouse Foxconn’s employees in the dead of night for glass screens, a thoroughly developed relationship with a supplier can gain your organization preferential access to them. The benefits of a healthy relationship can be leveraged to obtain priority access to product capacity, better pricing, and, depending on the supplier and product or service needed, access to the supplier’s best people.

Supply Chain Stability — With a relationship developed between your organization and a supplier, it is possible to talk frankly about their risks. Weather and disaster vulnerability, political events, logistics concerns — anything that could potentially impact the supply of their products to your organization. Additionally, these discussions allow you to get a better understanding of the supplier’s supply chain and the potential hiccups within it. Most importantly, these discussions provide the foundation for your organization and a critical supplier to jointly develop solutions to potential problems, ensuring that a mutually beneficial solution is reached in the creation of a better understanding between the two organizations.

Input Into Innovation — Another area where Apple capitalizes on its strong supplier relationships is in the joint innovation of new technologies, strategies, or processes. The company routinely puts out the cash to fuel a supplier’s development of an improved or revolutionary product or process in exchange for exclusivity. Recent examples include the company’s lockdown of capacitive touch screens following the iPhone’s launch and their joint development of the highly precise lasers used to perforate the aluminum MacBook frames to allow for hidden status lights. Even if your organization lacks the capital to fund supplier improvements, enhanced relationships can still get your organization input into a supplier’s next product, leading to design changes that can lead to more efficient production, or a lower cost, on your side.

Knowing that a partnership can lead to a reduced total cost of goods through shared responsibility, assistance in the product development process through shared expertise, and long-term stability through the forming of a bond with a customer are key incentives that can persuade reluctant suppliers to come onboard and sweeten the relationship on an ongoing basis.

If your supplier is critical, a deep and mutually beneficial relationship with them is critical too.

Thanks, Joe!

Perks and pitfalls of knowledge diffusion in the supply chain


Today’s guest post is by Professor Ralf W. Seifert & Olov H. D. Isaksson.
Ralf W. Seifert is Professor of Operations Management at IMD and he teaches in the “Leading the Global Supply Chain” (LGSC) program.
Olov Isaksson is a PhD candidate at the Chair of Technology and Operations Management at EPFL, specializing in buyer-supplier relationships. He previously worked at Henkel as a supply chain project manager.

Do you collaborate with, and learn from, your suppliers, or are you serving them the knowledge to compete with you head-on on a silver platter? This question is increasingly relevant in today’s global competitive environment. Firms are routinely leveraging global sourcing to gain cost advantages but competition nowadays occurs between supply chains, rather than businesses. Thus keeping an eye on your supplier’s ambitions is vital.

Case in point, just look at the ongoing patent infringement lawsuits between Apple Inc. and Samsung Electronics Co. Apple turned to Samsung as a supplier for its new iPod and iPhone products back in 2005. At first the two companies jointly developed the components, which gave Samsung an insight into Apple’s technology and operations. Being the only supplier for the processors, Samsung also gained critical knowledge on Apple’s prediction of the market size for the iPhone. In 2010, Samsung launched its own smart phone and has since become Apple’s largest competitor. Today, Apple still remains dependent on Samsung, but it is trying hard to diversify its supplier portfolio.

The above situation exemplifies the negative aspects of knowledge spillovers in the supply chain — i.e. how important knowledge that exceeds the scope of the formal transaction can be diffused between customers and suppliers, and then be used in a rivalrous manner. At the same time, spillovers can also have positive effects and lead to a competitive advantage for the supply chain as a whole.

How does your desire to draw on trading partners for innovation balance with the need to protect strategic knowledge? And, to what extent do you take co-competition from suppliers into account in your supplier assessments? We engaged 34 executives from different high-tech firms and asked them about their opinion. Their consensus: recognizing knowledge spillovers is a critical issue in today’s supply chains. Both suppliers and customers are seen as important sources of information for innovation (see Fig 1).

“We get plenty of valuable information about the market, its players in the value chain and its main drivers from our customers and suppliers. My business relies on it. It is a great input for our R&D portfolio,” said Dr. Ir. Kees Joziasse, Director of Innovation at Corbion Purac.


Figure 1
While most high tech firms protect their innovations through patents, most of the executives stress that knowledge spillovers occur outside formal collaborations — to a large extent via personal interactions between employees of the firms (Figure 2).


Figure 2
Greg Nelson, Sr. Director R&D LED Systems at Philips highlights that employees possessing important knowledge must be conscious of the risks and rewards of knowledge spillovers when interacting outside the firm:

“Knowledge spillovers in the supply chain are a clear attention point. There is a need to create awareness up front with people who have these contacts and to have an explicit policy regarding what can be transferred. Policy restrictions must be balanced with the potential benefits that can be derived from collaboration and not hinder speed in the process. While policies and procedures are not always 100% effective, they do help create awareness in the organization to guard against unintended transfers.”

The Supplier Perspective

While a supplier can learn from its customers, it cannot choose who wants to buy its products/services. Still, Ted Smith, EMEA Sales Director at ON Semiconductor suggests that firms can leverage knowledge spillovers and gain a competitive advantage by carefully choosing collaboration/innovation partners.

“We typically don’t select which customers to do business with, but we do select customers to innovate with. We work with selected alpha-customers, or early adopters, who support supplier innovation in return for a head start in the market.”

The Supply Chain Perspective

Good and enduring partnerships can lead to a competitive advantage for the supply chain as a whole: Mukesh Singh, Senior Regional Manager at BASF explains that “Suppliers easily share their new learning/knowledge if the customer has a strong supplier relationship management program.”

However, it is important to agree upfront how innovative output that is generated in a collaboration should be divided. Dan Negrea, Managing Director AEMtec GmbH and Chief Technology Officer at ECMS exceet, elaborates:

“We strictly consider the background and foreground intellectual property (IP) in our cooperation with partners. The background IP is a source of information “for free.” The foreground IP is normally shared between our company and the customers. Product related IP goes to the customer and process related IP stays with us. In most cases, cutting edge products require the parallel development of a product and a manufacturing process.”

The Customer Perspective

Most executives viewed knowledge spillover as a positive phenomenon. Reflecting on the Apple-Samsung example, others might beg to disagree. Managers do need to protect important knowledge from potential competitors and patents offer only limited protection. Thus, strategic supplier assessments and a detailed supply chain contract are vital to mitigate this risk. If the knowledge in question is critical, in-house production or vertical integration of the supplier might still outweigh short-term gains.

Takeaways

Knowledge spillover readily occurs in your supply chain. Managers need to be aware of the risks of negative leaks, which can have detrimental consequences for the firm. At the same time, knowledge spillover can offer significant benefits for your supply chain if suppliers leverage newly acquired competences to your advantage. These are our recommendations:

  • Explicitly recognize the potential of knowledge spillovers in collaboration and sourcing decisions up-front! What do you need to protect from your competitors? Are there limitations in your supply chain contract? To what extent can your enforce non-use, non-disclosure and non-competition clauses in a global marketplace?
  • People buy from people. Make sure that employees are aware of the risks and benefits of knowledge spillovers! Create an appropriate policy regarding disclosures and interactions outside the firm!
  • Have a clear strategy with regards to each supply chain partner! Do you want a win-win situation or to squeeze a supplier? In collaborations, clearly agree upfront how innovative output shall be divided! If the knowledge is strategically important, in-house production or vertical integration of the supplier might be the safer option.


Thanks Ralf and Olov for this interesting take on Supply Chain collaboration.