Category Archives: Market Intelligence

Economic Damnation 9: Oil & Gas Price Shocks

Take a look at the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Price chart for the last twenty (20) years over on Macrotrends.net. It’s bouncing up and down like a yo-yo. And any chart you pull up for international oil and natural gas prices is going to look similar. In the chart, we see oil goes from a high of about $38 in 1997 to a low of about $16 in 1998 to a high of about $47 in 2000 to a low of about $26 in 2002 and then a series of gradually increasing perturbations until it reached a high of about $145 in 2008 before it crashed down to about $43 in the same year. And so on.

In other words, within a one year period, prices can double or be cut in half without almost any warning. And either situation can run havoc with your supply chain. Let’s tackle the obvious situation first. Prices double seemingly overnight. Your costs are going up – if not right away, very very soon. If you have a contract, you might be able to insist that your supplier absorb the increase since they were, at signing, charging you higher than market cost since they were taking a risk over a predefined period. But, at some point, their margins go to zero, and soon after that, they are not going to put up with it anymore, especially if they are struggling financially. They are going to insist upon fuel surcharges, or simply stop honouring your contract and fail to pickup. Now, of course, you can try taking them to court, but in the interim, no shipments, no sales, and screaming customers which cost your organization much more than it could recover in a legal battle years down the road. If you don’t, you are buying on the spot market, paying 10%, 20%, 30% or more than expected for transport, eroding your margins, and possibly even losing on every delivery to your customers if you are working on thin margins to a competitive marketplace. You can either try to pass the costs on, and risk angry customers, or try to ride it out.

The non-obvious situation is when prices drop. Suppliers are the first to cry foul when prices increase rapidly but the last to insist on being fair when the drop. When was the last time they voluntarily dropped a fuel surcharge after fuel prices dropped back to the levels they were when they cut the contract to begin with? Never! You will have to spend a lot of time and effort to negotiate prices down to reasonable levels, and even more time tracking prices to benchmarks to know when you need to start those negotiations — this takes resources, and that costs money. This is a situation where you’re damned if prices rise and you’re damned if prices fall. It’s damnation all around.

And that’s just the short term damnation. If prices drop too much, the first thing the producers are going to do is pump less oil, reduce production, and wait until demand nears (and maybe even exceeds) supply, so that prices will start to rise again. In other words, as soon as you manage to successfully negotiate the price reduction, you’re only a few months away from the supplier coming back with a new surcharge request. The pendulum always swings and knocks you in the head upon every return.

Why Is No One Using Big Brains?

Apparently one of the best presentations at Coupa Inspire earlier this month was a presentation by IBM on Procurement Transformation and Big Data. (Needless to say that this does not inspire the doctor.) Ouch! Big Data is good, but only if it’s a big bucket of relevant data, but that’s not usually the case. Usually it’s a big bucket of random data where only some of the data is relevant and the statistical relevance is low. This is bad because if an organization takes big data as gospel, it can be led down the wrong track. (And we’ll get back to this.)

And given the examples that the prophet is presenting in his post on “When Watson Meets Procurement” on Spend Matters, the doctor is a bit worried. Why? Let’s take them one by one.

Parsing unstructured data to extract “soft facts” and information from news feeds and social media to line up against traditional risk management data feeds to drive a new level of supply risk management intelligence.

Okay, this is smart, because it can identify potential problems, but not necessarily all that useful. For example, let’s say it detects a few dozen instances of consumer unrest due to product defects. If the product is one with a warranty, chances are your customer service department already has a few dozen instances of warranty claims. No new information. Let’s say it detects a few hundred instances of consumer duress because one of your suppliers was using slave labour – but that resulted from a news story that was already picked up by your supply chain visibility and risk monitoring system. Nothing unexpected here. All you can really pick up on is general consumer sentiment, but only the consumer sentiment of the consumer base that is online, and, more likely, the consumer base that is unhappy with the product, since people who are unhappy are more likely to complain that people who are happy are likely to go online and give good reviews.

Ask Watson about Procurement that can leverage natural language processing to extract data buried in contracts, documents, and other organizational systems such as AP.

Okay, this is kind of smart too, but this is not so much big data processing but natural language processing and query formation as this is no different than implementing a meta interface that parses a query and translates it into a format that is appropriate for each system that may contain related Procurement data. Yes, the number of systems that could contain related information magnify the data magnitude problem, but since you can search separately and then only integrate relevant data, this is really not that much of a big data problem.

Build My Briefing, Watson that aggregates information about a Procurement entity (category, supplier, etc.) into an auto-generated deliverable for anyone who needs it (for sourcing, supplier review, etc.)

Okay, this is also smart, but not big data. This is just aggregating data from multiple systems and shoving it in a pre-built template. It’s just a reporting engine on steroids.

the doctor would like to see a good use of Big Data for procurement to solve a problem that could not have been solved otherwise, but he hasn’t seen it yet. The reality is that, as he has been saying for years, Big Brains Will Win in the End.

Is Your SRM in a State of Flux? Maybe You Should Find Out!

Earlier this year we introduced you to State of Flux, a provider of Supplier Relationship Management (SRM) software and services, and the initiators of the SRM Research Report which we highlighted in our 3-part series that highlighted why you should focus on essentials, plan against the pillars, and be a customer of choice.

SRM is very important because supply chain success is ultimately dependent on your supply base. Your organization can have the best marketing and packaging in the world, but if the supply base delivers products that are rubbish, your organization’s brand reputation is tainted, and the damage can well exceed even double-digit savings identified during the sourcing phase.

But it’s not easy to effectively manage supplier relationships because SRM is more than just performance monitoring and corrective action management, it’s also nurturing, development, and partnership. Furthermore, effective SRM requires quite a bit of work to get a proper framework in place (as reinforced by Sigi Osagie’s recent Procurement Mojo), which will need to be implemented while keeping the ten essentials in mind that were highlighted in State of Flux’s 2014 SRM Report (and summarized in our post on the essentials).

And it’s even harder to find out how well you are doing until, of course, a major disruption or disaster occurs when a shipment doesn’t arrive or, even worse, arrives with a 10%+ defect rate (because, otherwise, it seems like everything is hunky-dory even when the relationship is spiralling out of control). But there is a way — you can proactively participate in the 2015 State of Flux SRM Research Report and get the full results ahead of the market. You can measure yourself against your peers, find out where the market is, and get the first insights into new best practices.

You have until June 26, 2015 to complete the SRM Survey, which, this year, is focused on helping you get executive sponsorship and support for SRM. Executive sponsorship is critical because SRM needs to be viewed as an organization enabler for the required transition management program to be adopted and enforced.

While this survey will take 45 minutes of your time, the reward is infinitely more valuable than the cost. This year’s publication was one of the most comprehensive compendiums of SRM insight ever produced with 216 pages of data, results, and expert interpretation. Imagine the value that will be yours, for free, as a participant in the seventh annual study.

So, take the 2015 SRM Survey today. Given the depth of the work consistently produced by State of Flux compared to the average analyst report, you won’t regret it!


M&A: Confusion or Clarity?

There’s been a lot of M&A in the past few years, with companies like SciQuest, Selectica, Xchanging, etc. gobbling up a number of smaller companies with offerings that the acquirer believes could be used to make a full S2S (Source to Settle) suite, and with the recent investment announcements, including this week’s announcement of an 80M investment in Coupa (at a 1 Billion valuation, which the doctor still finds unbelievable), there is sure to be a return to the M&A frenzy of the late noughts that will likely equal, if not exceed, the scale (and occasional absurdity) of the APE Circus. (Which I hope will be accompanied by a return of the Sourcing Maniacs, but alas, the doctor has not heard from them since they told us they were on their way back from their African vacation on New Year’s day five years ago.)

But will it be worth it? First of all, many acquisitions end up being overvalued. (For example, the doctor believes CombineNet is still far in the red, and this can’t be helping SciQuest.) Secondly, many acquisitions have overlap in functionality and offering. Thirdly, many acquirees often use different platforms. Right now, .NET, true C++, Java, and Ruby on Rail frameworks are all quite likely in the space and many acquisition frenzies result in a the merged company having three or more platforms to deal with.

Since, for example, a Source to Pay offering is only valuable if there is more integration than a company could achieve on its own by acquiring separate sourcing and procurement, and, if necessary, contract management and spend analysis platforms, this last point presents a major headache for the newly merged companies. Simply defining the push-pull endpoints and automating the data transfer doesn’t add that much value. A third party integrator can do that. Value comes from real-time end-to-end visibility through the source to pay process for every invoice, shipment, purchase order, contract, supplier, etc.

And the functionality overlap presents another hurdle. Each customer that uses a platform will expect all of the functionality of that platform, so you can’t even consider killing a platform component until all of the functionality is in another platform component. Not only will this take development time and effort while the organization has to support two platforms, but considerable time will be required as bruised egos try to decide which is best to keep and which to discard if both “endpoint” modules appear to be equally valuable.

And then there is the balance of how far to take integration in the short term when sales are rapidly needed to justify the expenditure, pay for the overhead loss as reorganizations occur, and support new personnel to plan development of the next version which will, someday, integrate everything on one underlying stack.

Sometimes it’s quicker, easier, and more cost effective to be patient, just build everything in house from the ground up, and go to market with a truly integrated solution which offers end-to-end visibility because it takes top talent to pull off a successful technology integration. And, by definition, not every company will have top talent with enough expertise across the source-to-pay process to make the right decisions.

the doctor is sure there will be some great success stories in a few years, but there will also be some mega failures as well. And in the interim, we’ll likely have more confusion than clarity.

Any differing opinions?

Coupa = 1B? the doctor is shell-shocked!

It takes a lot to shell-shock the doctor. It’s a crazy, crazy world and companies get overvalued all the time (take Facebook, for example). But 1B for a Procurement play best suited for the SMB market that only recently added basic sourcing (which qualifies as level 1 in the forthcoming 5-level sourcing model), basic finance support, and globalization support? A 5X multiple would be generous — and this is definitely closer to the 15X multiple that Spend Matters estimates in “coupa valued at over 1b in latest funding round”.

There are some who would argue that Coupa was past it’s prime when it started – the doctor had a conversation yesterday with someone who thought focussed Procurement platforms should have been over in 2006 (which is when they saturated the early adopter market). But since the true measure of maturity is when the technology starts to saturate the leader majority, the actual date the doctor would give for Procurement platform maturity is circa 2010-2011. Coupa doesn’t have anything that hasn’t been available from multiple vendors since at least then.

What Coupa does it make it faster (with instant start-up), better (through unprecedented ease of use), and cheaper (through SaaS and economies of scale). But it’s not unique, it’s not new, and while it is a Ferrari compared to the ERP Yugo, it’s still just Procurement with some Sourcing, Finance, and a solid technology stack. And it’s trying to lead a very competitive market. They may have grown faster than their peers (but they also raised 80M to do it when many companies only had a fraction of that to work with at any time), but hungry, hungry hippos come along everyday. And now that they are global, they have to take on the European heavyweights and newcomers (like Basware and b-Pack, which can now offer end-to-end Source-to-Pay as a result of the recent Selectica/Iasta acquisition, and both of these providers have Finance offerings as well — Basware actually started in Finance). And they more they crack open the market, the more companies that are going to be grasping at their coat tails, forcing them to be faster, better, and cheaper still — which at some point is going to erode their margins and affect their profitability.

Don’t get the doctor wrong, he has loved Coupa since Procurement Independence Day, and he even dedicated a full EP to them (which includes the hits It’s Coupa Time, The Coupa Store, and the unforgettable Davie and the Coupa Factory), but 1B is just crazy. It’s placing unreal expectations on Coupa and the Market as a whole, and setting them up for a huge acquisition that could make them the new Titanic of the space. And we all know what happened to the Titanic …