It’s been a tough slog, but we’re finally in the midst of the trends that are recent enough to be classified as “we should be mastering this” as opposed to “we should have mastered this (a) decade(s) ago”. This should be good news, but considering that it’s still going to be eight (8) more trends and two (2) more days before we get to a “future” trend that’s actually recent enough to classify as “like new remanufactured shoes”, when we look at the big picture, it’s not. We need more innovation, not renovation, or, even worse, reincarnation of trends that should have been entombed with the mummies.

But let’s get back at it. We’re not quitters here. We’re going to finish what we started. Even if the state of affairs has left us broken hearted, we’re going to tough it up and not ask for sympathy.

15. System Integration With Partners

This is a logical consequence of e-Procurement System Adoption, Better Governance Models, Business Process Convergence into Supply Management, Increased Strategic Focus, and Stronger Supplier Relationships. As more companies adopt e-Procurement systems, a trend that has been going on for over a decade, there is more need for integration. As more companies adopt better governance models, they acquire the need for more visibility, which can be obtained through system integration. As more companies converge their business processes, the supporting software platforms need to be integrated and merged to support this. As focus gets more strategic, it gets more inclusive of partners. And as the need for stronger supplier relationships takes root, henceforth comes the need for strong system integration with those suppliers for greater supply chain visibility.

14. Shorter and More Complex Product Life-Cycles

I’m not sure what industry to blame for this one — the console industry, which releases a new platform every few years, the electronics industry, which feels the need to double the output power of whatever it’s selling every two years, the cell phone industry, which has insisted on releasing newer and better phones every year, or the portable (laptop/tablet) industry which does the same. Regardless of who’s to blame, despite the fact that product complexity is going through the proverbial roof, product cycles have been steadily shrinking for the last two decades with no end in sight. It’s getting to be old news, but because the sophistication of the processes and technology required to handle these ever shortening life cycles needs to continue to increase as well, the doctor has promoted this trend to the category of ongoing blues. It might be more than it deserves, but qui ita iustus est.

13. The Cloud

The Cloud. The mega-trend, future-trend, you-must-have-it trend. The proverbial answer to all our problems. The two words that can unleash a verbal assault from the the doctor so intense that a psychiatrist might be compelled to consider diagnosing the doctor with with the worst case of Tourette Syndrome ever recorded. Despite numerous claims, the cloud is not a fluffy magic box (and we’ve told you this again and again). It’s a storm cloud that is filled with hail. And if you got cloud, I got your mail. No crystal ball (which the cloud is not) required. While the doctor doesn’t know how many more years we’re going to have to put up with the constant stream of nonsense marketers are pushing upon us where the cloud is concerned, he does know that every year is another year too many. And trying to fight it makes one feel all black and blue. It’s a flood of folly. How do you stop it? Calling it ongoing blues is an understatement. It’s a flood of despair that never, ever ends! The only positive is that when the flood of despair washes over you, you no longer care that Kim Kardashian wore the same outfit three times in a week.

12. BYOD / Mobile Procurement

Twenty-two “future” trends later and we’re finally at a trend that is almost forgivable. Almost. But only if it’s on a trend list produced by the most junior of analysts charged with a task that is way above his pay grade and competence level. And even then, its just almost forgivable. Because, regardless of it’s status, it’s been easy to predict for years that this is one trend that is going to increase in prevalence now that tablets are cheap, people expect choice, and BYOD just makes sense for many business that aren’t big enough to negotiate better plan deals than what is available to an individual. Why spend time and effort managing cell phones and plans when it’s quicker and cheaper to just reimburse an individual 65% of her mobile bill on her monthly expense report? And not have to pay for the phone. And why force an employee to carry around a cumbersome laptop that is likely to get lost or stolen if she can do the site visit on a light, cheap tablet (that you might not even have to pay for)? It just makes sense for a lot of companies, but because they have yet to wake up and smell the roses, this one actually needs to be on a few trend lists for a few more years (even though it should be old-news). Just don’t tell the doctor it’s the grand future when it’s really the right now!

We know that we have already pushed out four full posts since we started discussing old news, and that we should be done, but we’re still not done! Not even close! So if you were wondering why the doctor is still ranting and raving like a mad man, it’s because he is still very mad. So far we’ve exposed 12 “future trends” that are so outdated that Astroturf is revolutionary. And we’re not done! Not even close! We have three (3) more to cover today. It’s beyond insane! There’s no word for it! I’m betting, if he were still alive, even Einstein would have difficulty comprehending how so many hog manure “future trends” still see the light of day. And that’s why, once and for all, we have to bust them up — one by one — until they all fall down.

21. Increased Raw Material Scarcity

We’ve been dealing with raw material scarcity issues for centuries. Some as a result of unfettered demand. Some as a result of limited production. Some as a result of gross incompetence. For example, take the oil crises of 1973 and the rapid rise of oil prices in the 1990s. Or the gold price spikes between 1933 and 1948, 1973 and 1977, 1979 and 1981, and the almost unparalleled rise between 2001 and 2011 (somewhat balanced by the myriad of gold rushes between 1800 and 2000 around the world that, eventually, caused the price to drop significantly because of the influx of gold). Or the plethora of famines that have occurred around the world over the last few millennia since the first famine was recorded in the history books in Rome in 441 BC^*. The only difference is now, thanks to computer, laptop, tablet, and cell phone proliferation, the scarcity has shifted to rare earth minerals. And when you consider that the Earth’s population is rapidly increasing, as it is now four (4) times what it was 100 years ago, and that the planet, and the resources it contains, is finite — it doesn’t take an Einstein to put 2 and 2 together and come to the conclusion that, as time goes by, more and more raw materials are going to be in scarce supply.^**

20. Increased Strategic Focus

Isn’t this essentially what Drucker preached for the entire course of his academic and business career? When you get right down to it, strategy is not about numbers, it is about using what the numbers are telling you to do something right. And that something right is something that is done by your people. Drucker was all about building relationships, bringing out the best in your people, and making them an integral, happy, productive part of your community so that together they could do something better than each individual could do on their own. In other words, helping your people help you do something right, and grand, and wonderful. If this isn’t one of the best pieces of strategic advice ever, the doctor doesn’t know what is. So don’t tell me strategic focus is new. Drucker was preaching better management (which is key to organizational success) since he started working with IBM in the 1940s. That’s before most of us were even born!

19. Service Providers Excel (and surpass in-house ability)

No one in their right mind^*** outsources a back-office function to an outsource provider without a reasonably strong belief that the outsource service provider can do the function at least as well as the company can at a cost that’s at most what the company is currently paying to get the job done in house. In the early days when the outsourcing craze hit full tilt back in the 1980s, this wasn’t always the case, and some providers did so bad they actually flopped. But many didn’t, and some of these got very good at what they did. Very good. And in the 1990’s you had a large number of providers who could do back office functions at least as good as their clients, if not better. And then with the introduction of e-Sourcing and e-Procurement systems in the noughts, a few of these outsource service providers really took off and became so good at transactional procurement or sourcing of select categories that they can run circles around their clients. Depending on the function, there have been service providers that have been better than the majority of their clients for at least 10, if not 20 years, in Supply Management and related functions. So, like the fourteen (14) “future trends” that precedes it, this prediction is really old news. And the doctor, for one, is tired of reading about it.

^* There is biological and recorded evidence (in the form of hieroglyphs and hieratic) of famine in Egypt around 2200 BC during the collapse of the old Kingdom, but as the remaining records are few and the biological evidence minimal, it’s hard to precisely date the famine, which was a relatively rare occurrence in Egyptian history. The Egyptians were the agricultural masters of their time and only on rare occasions where the Nile flooding was considerably more or less extensive than usual was food limited and famine a real possibility (if over or under-flooding of the Nile happened multiple years in a row).

^** Maybe we should be more forgiving considering that less than 1 in 7 American adults are “proficient” at math? Hell no! When we lose basic logic and reasoning skills and care only about whether or not Kim Kardashian has the same look twice in one week, the world will go to hell in a handbasket so fast that we won’t even have time to blink — so you will get no lenience or forgiveness from me. [We didn’t make this up! A headline on Daily Mail, yes, Daily Mail, was That’s unlike you! Kim Kardashian wears the same look for the THIRD time in a week ….]

^*** the doctor knows being in one’s right mind is not a pre-requisite for an executive job in some countries, including the United States, but we’re going to assume it should be and move on.

We know it’s been three full posts since we started discussing old news, but we’re still not done! Not even close! So if you were wondering why the doctor is ranting and raving like a mad man, it’s because he is mad. So far we’ve exposed 9 “future trends” that are so outdated that original bell bottoms seem new. And we’re not done! Not even close! We are going to cover three (3) more today. It’s insane! Even with a genius IQ it’s hard for the doctor to comprehend that so many hog manure “future trends” still see the light of day. And that’s why, once and for all, we have to bust them up — one by one.

24. Better Governance Models

Either you’re a vertical, horizontal, or hybrid organization structure with centralized, decentralized, or some form of hybrid governance. That’s it. the doctor doesn’t care what sort of new-fangled buzzword you come up with to describe your organizational structure or governance, those are your options. No more, no less. And Big 5/6 Consulting Co’s have been preaching better governance since well before what was supposed to be Indiana Jones’ Last Crusade was revealed to the world (even though it was during the 1980s that these same consulting companies started shouting the need for better governance from whatever rooftop they weren’t locked out of). In fact, these companies have been preaching better governance in some shape or form since their founding and AA (the LLP, not the sobriety help group) was founded over 100 years ago; the partnerships that evolved into KPMG over 140 years ago; and Deloitte & Touche, the partnerships that merged into E&Y, and the partnerships that merged to form PWC were each founded over 150 years ago.

23. e-Procurement System Adoption

To again be fair, e-Procurement System Adoption is still limited to the top half of enterprises that should be adopting systems and there’s still plenty of room at the top, but the reality is that ever since Coupa came onto the scene, and revolutionized the e-Procurement space, the availability and affordability of e-Procurement solutions increased dramatically over the coming years and now every business, large or small can afford an e-Procurement solution, not just ones with a Million dollars in their bank account. So, even though more businesses need to adopt e-Procurement, adoption has been steadily rising since Procurement Independence Day eight years ago. As a result, this has been a front and center issue for the last five years and is last decade’s future trend. Not this decade’s!

22. Business Process Convergence into Supply Management

While technically this belongs in ongoing blues, because, depending on which business process we are talking about, convergence into Supply Management might still be in the early stages, the reality is that once you go beyond buying office supplies, you are talking about the integration of other business processes into supply management because, in many companies, the procurement guy was the office manager and, besides buying office supplies, his whole responsibility was simply doing the paperwork. He’d negotiate for whatever part manufacturing wanted, cut the paperwork, and then deal with the invoice when it was received. He had no authority or control. He was on the bottom rung of the corporate ladder and if there was too much work for him to do, he was promoted to leader of the Island of Misfit Toys and assigned a disparate team of misfits who weren’t performing in the job they were hired to do but yet couldn’t (easily) be let go from the company. As soon as Procurement achieved responsibility for buying direct materials, hiring temporary services, and, more recently, print campaigns for marketing, there was even more business process convergence into supply management. And while it will continue, it’s an automatic consequence of supply management gaining traction, and a simple application of basic logic determines this, just like globalization implies increased competition. Chalk another one up to Mr. Obvious!

In yesterday’s post we again reiterated that it’s not what the analysts and vendors think the future of Procurement is, it’s what the future needs to be for your organization to be successful (and solvent) and what you need to do to get it there. And these are not one in the same. Furthermore, all of these “Future Trend” talks are getting repetitive because the vast majority of “predictions” in the doctor‘s recently compiled list of of 33 commonly identified “future states” that Procurement is supposedly going to have contains well over two dozen “future states” that Procurement has already had for years (and years) and provides a reader with absolutely no insight on what the future of Procurement is and, more importantly, what it needs to be for your organization. But, unfortunately, just telling you this doesn’t help you. So we have to discuss all 33 of these “future trends” and illustrate how only a small minority are relevant to the conversation while the rest are the same old trends that have been recycled and repackaged by the junket jaunters for the past decade. But having to spend over a week dispelling deceit does not delight the doctor in the least, and, as a result, makes him even more likely to call a duck a duck, a spade a spade, and a well dressed presenter the snake-oil salesman he really is. While he will continue keep the language Safe for Work, unless you mention a trigger word, the doctor‘s not pulling any punches in this series so if you want something more along the lines of cookies and sundaes^*, head on over to Spend Matters for about the next week. I’m sure their pieces will continue to be friendlier, or at least more politically correct, than SI’s.

Since we still have 27 to slog through, we’re going to dive back in!

27. Inter-Departmental Collaboration

To be fair, with a lot of effort, one could put forward a decent argument that this belongs in the ongoing blues category because there are still many companies where departments pit themselves against each other like two old-time big-league rivals, often with the throw-downs to match, but the whole point of the enterprise software movement, which has been ongoing for more than three decades, has been to provide organizations the tools with which to increase their collaboration. Furthermore, as soon as the CFO or CEO of any organization sees the financial benefit of collaboration, if collaboration doesn’t happen naturally, it is mandated. C’est l’entreprise.

26. Increased Accuracy in Demand Planning

Before best-of-breed Sourcing, Procurement, and Supply Management systems we had ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) systems (and, to be fair, most organizations still run on outdated ERP systems). Before ERP systems we had MRP systems. MRP, which is now known as Manufacturing Resource Planning, and which originally stood for Material Requirements Planning, was focussed on production and inventory control, regardless of what you choose to call it. And good inventory control came from … that’s right … good demand planning. So better demand planning has been at the forefront of needs and wants for … wait for it … wait for it … fifty (50) years. That’s right. FIFTY FREAKIN’ YEARS! MRP has been in production since 1964, when it was first implemented by Black & Decker. And 11 years later the founder (who developed MRP in response to TPS — Toyota Manufacturing Program) published the book on MRP, which, coincidentally, was published in the same year that Brooks published the classic tome on Software Engineering and Project Management (The Mythical Man Month). So to say this is new is like saying acrylic paint is new. (It’s not. It’s also 50 years old for those who are interested.)

25. More Stakeholder Collaboration

Thanks to the passage of the Small Business Investment Act of 1958, “Small Business Investment Companies” (SBICs) were licensed to help the financing and management of the small entrepreneurial business and, in the 1960s and 1970s, the first VCs formed and invested in companies like Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), Apple Inc., and Genentech and struck modern gold. This led to the rapid rise in VC corporations, and VC investment, and these VCs, who were major stakeholders, were interested in protecting their investments and got actively involved. This not only paved the way for stakeholder collaboration across the board but made it an important part of any serious^** business discussion for the last three decades. Again, old news (that the VCs might not want you to know if they’ve invested in the competition, but old news).

Do you agree Mr. LOLCat?

^* Still no guarantees!

^** Yes, the doctor has much higher standards than the average person. Deal with it.

In yesterday’s post, after noting that conference season is around the corner and, with it, plenty of talks on Future of Procurement, we noted that the doctor is beginning to really despise this because it’s repetitive, unnecessarily stressful (with the false sense of urgency for the wrong solution), and, most importantly, focussed on the wrong question. It’s not what the analysts and vendors think the future is, it’s what the future needs to be for your organization to be successful (and solvent) and what you need to do to get it there. These are not one in the same.

We then explained that it was repetitive because the doctor reviewed dozens of “future” studies, papers, articles, and posts written in the last year and compiled a list of 33 commonly identified “future states” that Procurement is supposedly going to have and explained that the majority of these states have been “future states” for years and provide a reader with absolutely no insight on what the future of Procurement is and, more importantly, what it needs to be for your organization. But, unfortunately, just telling you this doesn’t help you. So we have to discuss all 33 of these “future trends” and illustrate how only a small minority are relevant to the conversation while the rest are the same old trends that have been recycled and repackaged by the junket jaunters for the past decade. However, having to spend over a week dispelling deceit does not delight the doctor in the least, and, as a result, makes him even more likely to call a duck a duck, a spade a spade, and a donkey a jackass. While the doctor will keep the language Safe for Work, unless you mention a trigger word, he’s not pulling any punches in this series so if you want something more along the lines of kittens and unicorns^*, head on over to Spend Matters for the next week. I’m sure their pieces will be friendlier than SI’s.

Since we still have 30 to plough through, let’s dive back in!

30. Continued Margin Pressure

Every since the beginning of the modern industrial age and the introduction of the first mass production factories, customers have wanted lower prices. And when efficiencies gave customers these lower prices, they wanted the prices to be lowered even more. With end customers putting continued pressure on retailers to lower prices, these retailers are putting continued pressure on manufacturers to lower prices, and these manufacturers are, in turn, putting pressure on raw material providers to lower their prices. Margin pressure has always been with us and it’s not going away any time soon. This prediction is akin to predicting that fish will continue to swim in the ocean and if someone expects the doctor to take this as intelligent foresight, he has to wonder if they think they are speaking to a complete idiot on the classical Binet Scale. He knows the business world has its share of mentally deficient and somewhat incompetent buffoons, but no one with an IQ at or below the level of moron is going to be given the ability to make serious business decisions (which would include buying whatever product or service you’re selling) regardless of how much money his daddy has to waste^**.

29. More Outsourcing

Ever since the wannabe used car salesmen in their plaid suits, gawdy striped ties, and bright red pants convinced gullible CEOs that the answer to all their money problems was outsource, outsource, outsource, the outsourcing craze has gripped the business world and now you can find a service provider for almost everything you can think of. (Human) Dog Food Tester to make sure little bow-wow won’t refuse to eat his Caesar’s? Check. Phone Psychic to help your dumb boss figure out just what he’s thinking? Check. Multimedia Foley Artist (because you need just the right sound effect for your PowerPoint)? Check. Telephone Sanitizer? Well, not yet. But soon. Very soon.^***

28. Supply Chain Risk

Natural Disasters. Economic Disruptions. Geopolitical Interference. Societal Swings. Technological Advances and Breakdowns. These are the major categories of supply chain risk and all of these have been with us since the beginning of trade. Ancient societies had to deal with earthquakes, floods, locust swarms, and poor Pompei had one of the most devastating Volcanic eruptions in recorded history. Plus, wars between nation states have been around as long as the nation states themselves, and each war caused an economic disruption. Good luck doing any significant amount of trading in many ancient and medieval societies without permission of the Pharaoh, Emperor, or King. Societal swings have always emerged in the presence of a great orator or onerous monarch. And even the ancients made great technological innovations. The Egyptians built pyramids. The Chinese discovered gunpowder. The Vikings, and maybe even their forefathers, conquered the Atlantic. And each of these carried great risks for those merchants engaging in trade. A storm could sink a ship. A war could cripple an economy and it’s desire for luxury goods. The disfavour of the king could put you out of business. A societal swing could close the border. And if the marauders suddenly acquire better weapons, good luck getting your goods safely to their destination. Yes, supply chain risk is increasing, and the rate of natural disasters is expected to increase five-fold over the next fifty (50) years. And yes, economic disasters, thanks to greedy Wall Street bankers, are coming even more fast and furious than the over-the-top movie sequels rushed out by hollywood movie studios as fast as the hi-tech Korean sweatshops can pump out the special effects. Yes, governments, even those that are supposed to be representing the people who elected them and not their own interests, are interfering on a global scale and, even worse, doing it in secret. Yes, the modern media is great at stirring people up into a frenzy over minutia to distract from the real issues at hand, and, possibly, turn them against your business based on your beliefs. And yes every technological innovation could be a Tomahawk headed straight for your head. But what’s new? NOTHING! You just need to prepare for it, watch for it, and deal with it.

For even more ranting and raving, come back tomorrow. Or, if you’re in the mood for something a little closer to kitties and unicorns, as the doctor indicated at the top of this post, you can check out Spend Matters and come back next week. the doctor should have worked his way through most of the sheer lunacy by then. Still no guarantees, but that’s still his goal!

^* No guarantees!

^** OK. Maybe in the Southwest US or the state of Florida, which has its own FARK tag for a reason. But that’s the exception, not the rule! (At least for now …)

^*** And if the doctor knew exactly when, he’d be counting the days because he’s anxiously waiting for what comes next. 😉