Monthly Archives: July 2010

By The Time You Detect Financial Risk …

… it’s too late. As per this article on “the quality and performance connection” of supply risk, indicators of financial risk are usually preceded by a slow decline in quality or performance that is difficult to detect from delivery to delivery as suppliers, looking to survive, begin to cut corners that they hope will go unnoticed but which often compound the farther up the supply chain you go.

As the author, Jim Lawton of D&B notes, you need to consider supplier performance metrics to be the best leading indicator of overall supplier financial viability. This means that you need to define a process to monitor quality and performance from a risk perspective. Do this by:

  • identifying which areas of supply where quality, performance, and/or financial risk factors are likely to be most pronounced;
  • defining a way to track and measure performance using delivery, performance, and other system data;
  • aggregating the data regularly for analysis;
  • creating corrective action plans to be implemented as soon as elevated risk is development; and
  • creating a closed-loop process that continually monitors and assesses risk information to insure that risks are detected early enough to permit the corrective action plans to be undertaken successfully.

And maybe you won’t be the one that finds out about an impending supplier bankruptcy after it’s too late!

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How to Build a Bat House (Repost)

Once upon a time, there was a beautiful old wooden hotel in the North Country. The owner had coaxed an award-winning chef with a new family away from the hurry-scurry of the big city, so the food was fabulous. The staff were locals imbued with the history of the region and an encyclopedic knowledge of hiking trails, scenic vistas, off-the-beaten-track cross-country trails, and so on. The cleaning staff took pride in ensuring that floors and woodwork were polished, the rooms were well-equipped, and bathrooms were spotless. The fixtures and furniture were old but functional, and the atmosphere was charming, down to the homemade quilts on the beds, each one individually selected.

Eventually the owner, beset with health problems, sold the business to a bright young entrepreneur. Several years later, there was an economic downturn, and revenues fell off. The new owner seized the opportunity to cut costs. He replaced the chef with the sous-chef, at a much lower salary. He revised the menu to remove the most costly items. He instituted a retirement buy-out for the original staff, replacing them with rent-a-clerks and teenagers. He replaced the maids with a commercial cleaning service, and traded the difficult-to-clean quilts for store-bought linens and coverlets. He was able to decrease the room rates by 25%.

To the new owner’s dismay, revenues continued to fall. Former customers were turning up at the local Best Western and Holiday Inn franchises, whose newer buildings and minimalist rooms consistently undercut his prices, no matter how much he lowered them. He was forced to close one wing of the old hotel, then another, and more of the staff were let go. Finally, he had to shut the business entirely. After a while, windows blew out and bats moved in, hence the title of this story.

About six months later, the young man met the old owner for dinner. “I’m sorry about what happened to the old place,” he said. “The economy tanked, and no matter what I did to cut costs and lower prices, we just couldn’t recover.” The former owner stared into his wine glass for a while. Then he shrugged, looked up, and asked, “What reason did people have to stay in your hotel? The food was mediocre; the rooms had lost their charm; you fired everyone who cared about the guests, or who could help them enjoy their visit; and poorly-paid commercial cleaners will do the bare minimum, if that.” The young man asked, “What should I have done?” The old man shook his head. “Who knows,” he said. “But people always need vacations, and when times are tough they want an extra-special place to stay. I’d have made it more special, not less special; and I might even have increased my rates and my advertising. Heck, if someone is paying $200 a night for a room, $220 isn’t much of a sacrifice.”

The young man smiled tolerantly. “Yes, but this downturn is different. Everyone’s in trouble. Businesses are failing left and right.” The old man refilled his glass. “I’m sure you’re right,” he said. “Who can say whether my strategy would have worked?” The two men began applying themselves to their meals. Between forkfuls, the young man asked, “So, what are you doing with yourself these days?” “Oh, ” said the old man, “nothing special. The doctors eventually figured out what was wrong with me and fixed it, so I got restless and bought an old ski lodge about a year ago. We renovated the rooms, brought in a French chef, put in an outdoor 4-season pool, and recruited a bunch of savvy locals to run the place.”

How are you doing?

“We’re booked solid.”

Editor’s Note: This post, contibuted by Anonymous, originally ran on March 31, 2009. It is being reposted because too many businesses are still building bat houses. If this trend continues, it’s likely that there will be no avoiding a double dip recession that everyone is so fearful of. Just like Marketing is NOT optional, neither is forward advancement. There is no holding pattern in business. There is victory or death. Choose one.

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Three Easy Steps to Winning a Recession

    1. Get Operationally Efficient This is not about cutting costs, but cutting fat and spending strategically on quality and performance. If a product, service, or piece of software improves productivity by 30% and reduces operating costs by at least 3X its annual cost, you buy it, even if it costs six or seven figures. But if all a product does, like an online T&E application that your employees rarely use, is save you 50,000 a year for it’s 30,000 price tag, you eliminate it and invest the 30,000 somewhere else where you’ll get a return.
    2. Increase the R&D Budget Your prosperity depends upon your ingenuity. That will require innovation, which requires top talent and the resources they need to break through traditional barriers. That requires that R&D have enough money to support pure research in addition to product development and day to day support. And in R&D, a little investment can go a long way. It only takes one breakthrough product to make tens, if not hundreds, of millions (or billions) of dollars of revenue down the road.
    3. Invest for the Long Term as well as the Short Term

This is the real reason most companies fail. Simply put, failure to invest for the long term means that when a new innovation is needed to maintain or secure new market share, it’s not there. Failure to invest beyond the next quarter means that instead of working on new products, the company is focussed on extending the life-cycle of existing products which have sold well, trying to eek out every last penny. The problem with this strategy is that as the market gets closer and closer to full saturation, the profit per sale drops exponentially. In comparison, if the company shifted focus to a new, promising, product, around the 70% saturation point, by the time the market reached the point where the profit per sale was unattractive (which usually happens around the 80% saturation point), the new product would be well into it’s growth curve and profits would hold steady.

That’s it. If you don’t believe me, you can read the very well written, but very lengthy, article on “roaring out of recession” in the Harvard Business Review, but winning a recession is very simple. Stop focussing on cutting costs and start focussing on improving the value you bring to the market. Even in a recession, people still want, and need, to spend. The only difference is that they’re more reserved and willing to hold out for products and services that provide great value at a great price. The first company to offer them the first great product or service they want at a great price typically wins. It’s as simple as that. (And that’s one of the main reasons why 85% of market leaders get dislodged during a recession … they fail to understand that value trumps even long term loyalty when money is tight, giving you an opportunity.)

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AMR Reads the Supply Chain Tea Leaves …

… and probably proves that that they have not yet mastered the art of tasseomancy because, if I was going to bank on any predictions on who will rise in the coming year, I’d rather take my advice from a cartoonist than bank on their supply chain top 25 predictions.

Of their seven “rising” predictions, I wouldn’t bet on the following four:

  • Research in Motion (RIM)Apple & Droid are both taking the market by storm, taking turns leading the monthly sales numbers … and neither are fans of Microsoft (Apple is a direct competitor and Google has banned windows from its campuses), who continues to take a beating in the marketplace; in contrast, RIMs back-office integration is Microsoft (Exchange) heavy
  • Hewlett-Packard (HP)HP might be doing well in the enterprise (server) market, but it faces tough competition from IBM, Dell, and Sun, which now has the financial clout of Oracle behind it; on the consumer side, it’s Windows-centric, and Apple keeps rising while Microsoft keeps falling
  • NokiaWith six of the top ten cell phone manufacturers in Asia (3 in China, 2 in Korea, and 1 in Japan), and with the output of the Chinese manufacturers rising rapidly with a rapidly increasing local market size, how much longer do you think Nokia is going to retain top spot?
  • Johnson Controls (JC)This kind of says it all: the company dropped like a stone this year, as the weak economy hammered its financials. It’s unlikely this US-based company is going to see a quick recovery.

And while I expect the following two to hold rather steady, I don’t see a rapid rise:

  • KraftKraft is solid, but given their primary vertical, I don’t see a rapid rise in demand for their products.
  • General MillsGeneral Mills is also solid, but given their primary vertical, I don’t see a rapid rise in demand for their products either.

    Plus, both these companies are heavily dependent on retailers, whom AMR expect, as a group, to fall this year!

In fact, the only “rising” prediction I’d agree with is:

  • LG Electronics (LG)This Korean electronics giant is currently the third largest producer of mobile (smart) phones in the world and is aggressively pushing its way across the electronics vertical(s), backed up by a serious effort to revolutionize its supply chain.

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Upcoming Webinars from the #1 Supply Chain Resource Site

The Sourcing Innovation Resource Site, always immediately accessible from the link under the “Free Resources” section of the sidebar, continues to add new content on a weekly, and often daily, basis — and it will continue to do so.

The following is a short selection of upcoming webinars over the next two weeks that you might want to check out:

Date & Time Webcast
2010-Jul-6

 

15:00 GMT/WET

The Hidden Risks and Benefits when Implementing and Managing a Shared Services Center in LATAM

Sponsor: SSON

2010-Jul-7

 

11:30 GMT-05:00/CDT/EST

What Makes Best-in-Class Retail Supply Chains?

Sponsor: Supply Chain Digest

2010-Jul-7

 

14:00 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

Using Surety Bonds to Protect your Company

Sponsor: Federation of Credit and Finance Professionals

2010-Jul-7

 

14:15 GMT/WET

Environmental strategies for cost reduction in pharmaceutical facilities

Sponsor: WTG

2010-Jul-8

 

10:00 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

Align International Payroll Outsourcing with Your Global Strategy

Sponsor: SSON

2010-Jul-8

 

14:00 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

Reliability and Quality Planning: a QLM Framework

Sponsor: PTC

2010-Jul-13

 

2:00 GMT-05:00/CDT/EST

eSourcing – Automate your Sourcing Process

Sponsor: EC Sourcing Group

2010-Jul-13

 

14:00 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

Tired of Working With Cumbersome Spreadsheets?

Sponsor: Silico

2010-Jul-13

 

13:00 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

Best-in-class Strategies for EHS Compliance and Sustainability

Sponsor: Environmental Leader

2010-Jul-14

 

14:00 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

External Economic Risk Measurement

Sponsor: FICO

2010-Jul-14

 

14:00 GMT-05:00/CDT/EST

Trade Promotion Management Takes on Microsoft Excel

Sponsor: MEI

2010-Jul-14

 

11:00 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

2010 Risk Management 101 Webcast: Basics of Property

Sponsor: Marsh

2010-Jul-15

 

8:00 GMT-07:00/MST/PDT

Asset Disposition Strategies to Eliminate Excess Maintenance, Repair and Operations (MRO) Inventory

Sponsor: IHS

2010-Jul-15

 

14:00 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

Using EPCIS Data Sharing for Full Supply Chain Visibility

Sponsor: RFID Journal

2010-Jul-15

 

11:30 GMT-04:00/AST/EDT

Industry Trends in Compliance Training 2010

Sponsor: Brandon Hall

2010-Jul-16

 

10:00 GMT-07:00/MST/PDT

Strategic Account Planning

Sponsor: Relationship Economics

They are all readily searchable from the comprehensive Site-Search page. So don’t forget to review the resource site on a weekly basis. You just might find what you didn’t even know you were looking for!

And continue to keep a sharp eye out for new additions!